Jump to content

2020 College Prospects


BroncoBruin

Recommended Posts

55 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

If one of the three is available at 13, there’s your trade. Close relationship and 49ers need more picks (four full rounds between their 2nd and 3rd picks). Can you get that done for a fourth + a 2021 fourth? I think at worst, our last 3rd gets that done. 

One thing you can’t account for is the teams who will try to move ahead of the Broncos for one of these guys. Their love for Ruggs is the worst kept secret of this draft. 

For sure, all comes down to how other teams value prospects.  There are a lot of teams with WR needs.

Again I think it comes down to getting your guy.  Just as an example I’d rather move to #10 and get Lamb/Ruggs/Jeudy then miss out and be forced to take Ayiuk or someone at #46. 

I’d prefer not moving up, don’t get me wrong, but it’s going to take some cajones to sit at #15 and potentially miss out, IMO.

Honestly my dream scenario would be one of these OTs at #15 and then getting Mims in a trade up into late 1st/early 2nd, but I don’t know that that’s even close to realistic at this point.

Also Arizona traded from 15 to 10 to select Rosen a few years ago and it cost a 3rd and 5th.  I don’t think that’s a steep price to pay for the opportunity to select whichever of the top 3 WRs you would want and if it were me I’d take Lamb in a heartbeat, but understand why Ruggs and his speed would be too good to pass up.

Edited by germ-x
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, germ-x said:

I hate that Denver does this, but they almost have to take a WR at #15 (possibly trading up from 15) or trade up from #46 to get one.  I understand it is a deep class, but you also want to get the right guy.  You can’t go into next year with Tim Patrick as the #2 WR and I like Patrick, but you want him as your #4. 

Surely Patrick is the #3 at present behind Sutton and Dae’Sean Hamilton?

 

We really ought to have gotten on that Nuk Hopkins trade. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I really disagree that we need to force a WR pick. I would have no issue if we simply took BPA 15 and waited until 46 for a WR. Hell, there is argument that Brandon Aiyuk is the best RAC guy in this draft at WR and could be avaliable at 46. There is a good chance Shenault is there, high risk but worth it. Even Tee Higgins despite his poor combine may be able to translate his long strides to a NFL deep threat. Then sign a vet FA compliment. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I really disagree that we need to force a WR pick. I would have no issue if we simply took BPA 15 and waited until 46 for a WR. Hell, there is argument that Brandon Aiyuk is the best RAC guy in this draft at WR and could be avaliable at 46. There is a good chance Shenault is there, high risk but worth it. Even Tee Higgins despite his poor combine may be able to translate his long strides to a NFL deep threat. Then sign a vet FA compliment. 

 

Those three are way too boom/bust for me. I want to set it and forget it at my WR2 spot and I trust the top three to be players in the league as well as immediate contributors. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I like the idea of drafting an athletic freak OT in the mid rounds and give him a year with Munchak to mould him into a Left Tackle candidate if Bolles fails to improve and ends up walking. I just don’t know who that guy is yet. 
 

In my head, I’d like to come out of the top-100 picks with a WR, an offensive lineman and two DBs, in some order. If we don’t trade up and end up making all five picks, maybe throw a second WR in there. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Todd McShay came out with his updated mock today and it shows exactly why Denver needs to be aggressive in addressing the need at WR.  #15 and #46 have a chance to put Denver in no mans land when it comes to WR. 

McShay had Lamb, Jeudy, and Ruggs gone before pick #15.  Then Ayiuk, Jefferson, Higgins, Pittman, and Mims gone before #46.  McShay had Denver taking Shenault, who I like, but who also is a severe injury risk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Todd McShay came out with his updated mock today and it shows exactly why Denver needs to be aggressive in addressing the need at WR.  #15 and #46 have a chance to put Denver in no mans land when it comes to WR. 

McShay had Lamb, Jeudy, and Ruggs gone before pick #15.  Then Ayiuk, Jefferson, Higgins, Pittman, and Mims gone before #46.  McShay had Denver taking Shenault, who I like, but who also is a severe injury risk.

Im torn because If we sit right at 15 we’re going to get a really good player but one of the top 3 WR probably won’t be there imo.  But I do see a top tier OT or Brown/Kinlaw/Cj Henderson which I think all 3 are studs.  Waiting on WR there will be contributors in the later rounds but none of them will contribute as early.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Todd McShay came out with his updated mock today and it shows exactly why Denver needs to be aggressive in addressing the need at WR.  #15 and #46 have a chance to put Denver in no mans land when it comes to WR. 

McShay had Lamb, Jeudy, and Ruggs gone before pick #15.  Then Ayiuk, Jefferson, Higgins, Pittman, and Mims gone before #46.  McShay had Denver taking Shenault, who I like, but who also is a severe injury risk.

should have lost to oakland in that last game lol 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
 
 
 
4
 Advanced issues found
 
😐
3
9 minutes ago, IronJ said:

Im torn because If we sit right at 15 we’re going to get a really good player but one of the top 3 WR probably won’t be there imo.  But I do see a top tier OT or Brown/Kinlaw/Cj Henderson which I think all 3 are studs.  Waiting on WR there will be contributors in the later rounds but none of them will contribute as early.

Therein lies the rub.   That type of thinking is what often leads teams to reach for need early.   It's justifiable IMO ONLY when a team is 1 guy away from taking the leap from legit contender to conference champ level contender (i.e. that guy alone added to team puts you over the top now).     But at least in this case, the BPA could easily be argued to be one of the big 3 WR's at 15.   

I'm likely in the minority, but I don't believe we're legit contenders.   That's part of why I'm not committed to reach / overpay to get one of the top 3 guys.    We just have too many holes.  The guy we get at 15 is likely a difference maker no matter who it is - so long as it's not a pure-need driven pick.   If one of the big 3 WR's are there...awesome.    If not, one of the top 4 T, or Kinlaw (Simmons is a pipe dream, but it goes without saying).   Henderson isn't quite as high for me, but at least it's in the ballpark.   

That assumption follows that at least 3 QB's go in top 10, though.  If QB falls, then we may be in a tougher spot to make that call.   Trading up to stay in that difference-making tier may be needed if it's only Burrow/Tua that go.    We've suddenly changed from "OMG I hope Lock works out and we don't have to consider picking a guy like Herbert next year" in the fall to "OMG I hope someone else takes Herbert early"....LOL.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, champ11 said:

should have lost to oakland in that last game lol 

Careful....you're not a real fan if you root for team to lose (yes, I'm being sarcastic, but we've heard that line before - this scenario highlights how absolutely idiotic that statement is - as long as the guys play hard and go all-out, a L isn't always the worst result).   Losing 1-2 more games and moving up this year would have had a massively different list of choices.   It's not the reason to go out and deliberately tank (unless you are going for Trevor type 1.1, in which you have to be apocalypse-level bad without deliberately trying to get there lol) - but taking L's while the core is still going all-out, well, nothing wrong with that.   

Edited by Broncofan
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Therein lies the rub.   That type of thinking is what often leads teams to reach for need early.   It's justifiable IMO ONLY when a team is 1 guy away from taking the leap from legit contender to conference champ level contender (i.e. that guy alone added to team puts you over the top now).     But at least in this case, the BPA could easily be argued to be one of the big 3 WR's at 15.   

I'm likely in the minority, but I don't believe we're legit contenders.   That's part of why I'm not committed to reach / overpay to get one of the top 3 guys.    We just have too many holes.  The guy we get at 15 is likely a difference maker no matter who it is - so long as it's not a pure-need driven pick.   If one of the big 3 WR's are there...awesome.    If not, one of the top 4 T, or Kinlaw (Simmons is a pipe dream, but it goes without saying).   Henderson isn't quite as high for me, but at least it's in the ballpark.   

That assumption follows that at least 3 QB's go in top 10, though.  If QB falls, then we may be in a tougher spot to make that call.   Trading up to stay in that difference-making tier may be needed if it's only Burrow/Tua that go.    We've suddenly changed from "OMG I hope Lock works out and we don't have to consider picking a guy like Herbert next year" in the fall to "OMG I hope someone else takes Herbert early"....LOL.

 

I’d agree with this if it required Denver to sell the farm to get 1 player, but even moving up as high as #10 won’t require that.  The last time a team moved from #15 to #10 the cost was a 3rd and a 5th.  Obviously things change year to year, but that precedent was set 2 years ago.  That still leaves Denver with 4 picks in the top 100 and 5 picks in the top 120 and still 8 picks overall....plenty of quality picks to fill needs and still get the WR you want and a position Denver desperately needs to fill.

None of it would be reaching either.  Lamb, Ruggs, Jeudy are worth a top 15 pick.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I’d agree with this if it required Denver to sell the farm to get 1 player, but even moving up as high as #10 won’t require that.  The last time a team moved from #15 to #10 the cost was a 3rd and a 5th.  Obviously things change year to year, but that precedent was set 2 years ago.  That still leaves Denver with 4 picks in the top 100 and 5 picks in the top 120 and still 8 picks overall....plenty of quality picks to fill needs and still get the WR you want and a position Denver desperately needs to fill.

None of it would be reaching either.  Lamb, Ruggs, Jeudy are worth a top 15 pick.  

It's all about the price, though.  Pointing to past years isn't accurate - it depends on the demand / alternate buyers.    DEN didn't get full book value on moving down from 10 (1300 pts) to 20 (plus 52 - 1220 total points) last year because PIT was the only buyer, and they didn't mind moving back to get an O guy, where they thought he'd be.  The seller would have be OK from moving from 11 to 15, and possibly being left of the cold in that drop in tier talent.   So it's not as simple as saying "hey this is what happened last year".   Demand/other bidders/how far seller is willing to move back drives the price.      For the same reasons, teams pay well-above book prices if there are multiple bidders for the same guy / same target spot / seller isn't inclined to move that far back, and has to be blown away.   

Your scenario above at all isn't terrible, but that's far from a certainty.  And a late 3rd vs. early 3rd matters in the valuation, given the difference-makers we can find in early 3rd (but it dries up a ton later on in 3rd, unless teams reach horribly for need/other reasons, which is possible, Elway showed that in spades from 2013-7....).   But the bigger issue is the price is far from set in stone.   

No argument that it wouldn't be a reach for a top 15 spot for any of the 3.  With moving up, it's all about the price here, the player isn't in question - as the alternatives if we stay are really good, arguably equivalent - but not WR.   If you pay an insane price to move from 15 to 11....given the other alternatives at 15...well, you get the idea.

Now, if somehow there aren't 3 QB's off the board by 10 or so.....yeah, we're going to have to move up.  Unless you think Henderson is seen as equivalent to the top 3 WR (I can at least see why some ppl think he's close, but I'm not there, esp in Fangio's D), assuming the other guys are gone:

Top 4 T's (and I'm worried about Becton, but that's from a consensus opinion)

Young

Kinlaw

Simmons

Okudah

Brown (who I do worry may be the biggest bust, so I hope he's not top on the board at 15)

3 QB's

Top 3 WR's

I've been convinced by more tape that Brown and obv QB aren't the guys we want.   But those are the guys recognized to be elite difference-makers and felt top of the board.    So we're still OK at 15 even if those are the first 15 taken.  But if only 2 QB's go, then there's a drop IMO at the 1.15 spot (and yes, if Brown is falling, then we're at risk that it's at 1.14 where the drop occurs, if we don't want Brown).

If Brown is falling, or 2 QB's are the only ones gone by top 10, then yes, we should entertain moving up, even if it's above market prices....if they aren't, then the alternative of an impact guy at another position we'll eventually need for 2021+, I can live with standing pat, given how deep WR is for Rd2 (and then maybe move up Rd2 if we are worried about a run taking our next "guy" we love, as the price is way lower).

 

Edited by Broncofan
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...