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Trentwannabe

Week 3 GDT: Bengals @ Bills 2019 Home Opener!

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PSA: If someone ever wants to do the GDT please let me know. I certainly don't want to hog them but I get too antsy by Wednesday to wait any longer.

 

Last 5 games:
2017: Bills 16 @ Bengals 20
2016: Bills 16 @ Bengals 12
2015: Bengals 34 @ Bills 21
2013: Bengals 27 @ Bills 24 OT
2011: Bills 20 @ Bengals 23

Bengals have won 4 of the last 5. Bills lead all-time series 16-15.

Same Faces, new places:
Bengals OT Cordy Glenn, OG John Miller and LB Preston Brown were all drafted by the Buffalo Bills
Bills back-up QB Matt Barkley spent the 2018 TC with Cincinnati 

The Bills stats:
Record: 2-0
Offense Yards/game: 9th
Offense Yards/play: 13th
Offense Rush yards/game: 9th
Offense Rush yards/play: 12th
Offense Pass yards/game: 18th
Offense Pass yards/play: 13th.

Defense Yards/game: 6th
Defense Yards/play: 3rd
Defense Rush yards/game: 10th
Defense Rush yards/play: 20th
Defense Pass yards/game: 6th
Defense Pass yards/play: 1st.

The Bengals stats:
More info to come.

Analysis:
The Bills are 3-2 in their last 5 home openers (1-1 under McDermott). The Bills are 10-6 at home during Sean Mcdermott tenure as HC. The Bills are coming off two straight road wins to open the season, something that has not been done very often. Buffalo has been efficient and at times down right dominant throughout the last two weeks. Josh Allen has taken a huge step in year two throwing for over 250 yards in each contest and completing over 64% of his passes. WR's John Brown and Cole Beasley are already playing huge dividends. As is the new look OL lead by free agent pickup Mitch Morse who is playing at an all pro level. On the defensive side of the ball, Buffalo returned 10 of 11 starters to open the season with rookie Ed Oliver being the newcomer. This unit remains dominant and makes it hard for opposing offenses to have big plays against them. No QB has survived playing the Bills defense this year and started the following week due to one thing or another. The Bills are likely to get TE Tyler Kroft back this week just in time to face his old team. However, RB Devin Singletary is a question mark as of Wednesday and the Bills may be very cautious with him moving forward.

Cincinnati is off to a rough start under first year HC Zac Taylor. Though they almost pulled off the upset in week 1 in Seattle, they were completely embarrassed by San Francisco at home in week 2. RB Joe Mixon has had a rough time getting going early in the season, likely due to the patch-work offensive line in front of him. The Bengals like to show a lot of "eye candy" in their formations and never give the defense any clues as to what they are actually running. The McVay presence is strong in their offense. Defensively the Bengals leave a lot to be desired. Bills fans know all to well how slow LB Preston Brown is and the man beside him is likely worse in Nick Vigil. The Bengals DL is still a strength but against the run they have not held up allowing an average of 165.5 yards per game and 3 total touchdowns on the season. 

The Bills are home and off to their best start since 2014. Buffalo not only wants to be a playoff team, the players and staff expect themselves to be. If that is to hold true, a win Sunday is an absolute must. No excuses. Bills will likely lean on Frank Gore and Josh Allen's legs early to wear down the Bengals D in what is suppose to be a hot day (83 at kickoff). I think play action pass will be the Bills best friends against these LB's and especially if Kroft plays. Defensively the Bills will face their toughest passing attack to date but the Bengals OL could be in trouble against our DL. Will Dalton get the time to go deep to Ross or find Boyd? If the Bills can limit that, they should be just fine.

Bills 27
Bengals 13.

Edited by Trentwannabe

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I think this is the toughest overall challenge for the bills defense. Yes they played a young darnold with Leveon, and an old Eli with a stud Barkley. However the one thing that these guys rarely had is the down field talent that Cincy has in Boyd and Ross. Still havent heard anything about AJ being available but that would be that much more difficult. Not to mention the run combo of Mixon and Gio. If bills can shut down Mixon early and force Dalton to throw more often then he is likely to make mistakes but if they get the run working I expect a lot of play action passes deep to those guys. 

On a side note I read an article on why the bills should turn around after the game and trade for Aj Green to add to Brown and Beasley for the big man that they seek. If the Bills do end up winning the bengals are 0-3 and have to play the rams, and pats including their divisional games. They may look to move on from him for the right price. Its unlikely to happen but was a compelling case for them to move on from him and bills being in a spot to take him on as he does fit the culture bills have.

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As long as we don't shoot ourselves in the foot badly i can't see us losing this game. 

Home opener, place will be rocking, defense won't give up more than 19 points imo. 

Lets hope Allen keeps progressing and has himself another solid game. Bengals D doesn't scare me too much. 

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This game scares me a little could be a trap game with New England next week.  The Bengals have some weapons that can stretch the field but if I have to pick a winner I'm going with the Bills it's the home opener and the fans will be loud.  Buffalo 27-13 

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Regarding the idea of a trap game: 

This is a huge test for McDermott and his staff. If we come out flat and ugly and even lose, they'll need to take a long look in the mirror. The process should not include losing at home to an inferior team. 

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Nice write up @Trentwannabe

I'll stick to my prediction of Josh Allen having a big game both in air and on ground. Our defense will shut down Cincy across the board

Bills make a statement in a route

Bills 31

Bengals 6

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I honestly could care less about Ross. He will probably drop as many as he catches. No one has mentioned Eifert, though. I think stopping him with a safety or Edmunds is going to be key to us winning. He and Boyd are the main threats in their passing game. I think we will control Mixon and their running attack. Their D is really not that improved, so I expect that we will move the ball as well as we have the past 3 weeks. All in all, another fine Bills victory...

Bengals     13

Bills            24

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9 hours ago, Yibbyl said:

I honestly could care less about Ross. He will probably drop as many as he catches. No one has mentioned Eifert, though. I think stopping him with a safety or Edmunds is going to be key to us winning. He and Boyd are the main threats in their passing game. I think we will control Mixon and their running attack. Their D is really not that improved, so I expect that we will move the ball as well as we have the past 3 weeks. All in all, another fine Bills victory...

Bengals     13

Bills            24

You should care about Ross. They are #2 in the league in passing and Ross is #1 in yards. I wouldnt necessarily write that guy off. If it wasnt for  bad throws week 1 Robby Anderson had Levi Wallace beat on a couple of deep balls. That is Ross specialty and he is much faster then Anderson. I get Eifert with the LBs and Neal I am more confident in them being able to stop him over Ross. 

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good luck guys. optimism is pretty low right now after a sloppy week 2 vs. the 49ers. We all thought  after a strong week 1 vs. Seattle we would be a sleeper team. I fully expect Frank Gore to gash us for 125+ yards. Our tackling last week was abysmal and guys were out of position everywhere. Hard to see that being corrected in a week, but maybe... I see Josh Allen having a solid day, something like 220 passing yards and a TD, but mostly because I think we wont be able to stop the ground game. It will be interesting to watch our offense matchup against your D. We have moved the ball pretty well through the air, but our ground game just flat out sucks right now. Our backs are being hit in the backfield almost immediately, but thats what happens when you are down to your 3rd and 4th OT's. I wouldn't count us out, but this looks like a win for the Bills.

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Devin Singletary is not practicing again. No need to rush him back for a week 3 game. 

Tyler Kroft and Andre Roberts are both practicing fully today. A great sign for their availability for Sunday.

Frank Gore given a rest day. I expect to see a lot of Yeldon making catching out of the backfield. 

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1 hour ago, Trentwannabe said:

Devin Singletary is not practicing again. No need to rush him back for a week 3 game. 

Tyler Kroft and Andre Roberts are both practicing fully today. A great sign for their availability for Sunday.

Frank Gore given a rest day. I expect to see a lot of Yeldon making catching out of the backfield. 

May want to rethink that as he injured his ankle today. The guy is just injury prone and shouldnt be counted on. If he is healthy great but dont get your hopes up thinking this guy is going to be a corner stone for this offense at TE.

Severity of injury is unknown but staff is worried about it. If its a serious ankle injury i think its time to pull the trigger and cut him with an injury settlement. Sweeney and Knox have stepped up which is good since Kroft cant stay healthy

Edited by soflbillsfan

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48 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

May want to rethink that as he injured his ankle today. The guy is just injury prone and shouldnt be counted on. If he is healthy great but dont get your hopes up thinking this guy is going to be a corner stone for this offense at TE.

Severity of injury is unknown but staff is worried about it. If its a serious ankle injury i think its time to pull the trigger and cut him with an injury settlement. Sweeney and Knox have stepped up which is good since Kroft cant stay healthy

Probably a little early to label him injury prone. Missing last season and then breaking his foot earlier this off-season isn't ideal by any means but he's put together multiple full seasons.

Today's news sucks but without knowing the severity of it I won't get too concerned or start calling for his release.

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