Mike Vrabel

[TitanSS]

5 minutes ago, SerenityNow said:

Not that I want this to happen by any means, but I'm curious what others think about it. How long of a leash do you think Vrabel gets here? He was hired under the pretenses of taking our average/good team that was a 9-7 playoff team and turning them into a consistent contender. He failed that in year 1, and this year so far we've looked to decline in almost every area. So how long theoretically does Vrabel get before his seat starts to get hot? I say he gets two more years after this one, and if we haven't visibly improved/made the playoffs somewhere in that span I could see both Vrabel and JRob being out.

I don't think Robinson goes anywhere anytime soon. Vrabel/Robinson ateare going to have a chance to find a QB and get at least a couple years to put together a solid offense with a young QB.

If Robinson can't fix the OL years dowm the road we may see the crowd turn on him.

[-Hope-]

10 minutes ago, TitanSS said:

I don't think Robinson goes anywhere anytime soon. Vrabel/Robinson ateare going to have a chance to find a QB and get at least a couple years to put together a solid offense with a young QB.

If Robinson can't fix the OL years dowm the road we may see the crowd turn on him.

what i'm wondering is where the buck stops in terms of our OL coach, tbh. two years of pretty miserable play should result in a change imo

[dtait93]

1 hour ago, SerenityNow said:

Not that I want this to happen by any means, but I'm curious what others think about it. How long of a leash do you think Vrabel gets here? He was hired under the pretenses of taking our average/good team that was a 9-7 playoff team and turning them into a consistent contender. He failed that in year 1, and this year so far we've looked to decline in almost every area. So how long theoretically does Vrabel get before his seat starts to get hot? I say he gets two more years after this one, and if we haven't visibly improved/made the playoffs somewhere in that span I could see both Vrabel and JRob being out.

If we don’t make the playoffs it should absolutely be hot. You don’t sell the fan base on going from good great and then miss the playoffs for a second year in a row when the year before you were hired the team made the playoffs AND won a playoff game.

[ragevsuall17]

2 hours ago, TitanSS said:

How many All-Pros do we expect GMs to bring in each year?

Core players. Not one hit wonders (who may or may not had a lot of help from TEs). 

4 years... 1 guy. Two with Ryan... He's been great for 3 years now (even if some only started noticing now).

 

[SerenityNow]

With the amount of picks got in that initial haul for the #1 Overall pick we should be seeing more results. Adoree was a bad pick when White was still on the board at CB. There's no doubt about that. Corey is harder for me to judge because of the lack of overall consistency from the offense since he's been here. Dodd was a bust, Austin Johnson is J.A.G. Derrick looks to be a guy that we can build around. His misses look worse because of the advantageous spot we were put in by that Rams trade. Since that trade the Rams have become a perennial Super Bowl contender, and we're still sitting back here in the land of the mediocre. JRob has done a lot of great things for this roster, but his misses with the amount of shots he had to take early on in his tenure here are not looking very good up to this point.

[TitanSS]

53 minutes ago, ragevsuall17 said:

Core players. Not one hit wonders (who may or may not had a lot of help from TEs). 

4 years... 1 guy. Two with Ryan... He's been great for 3 years now (even if some only started noticing now).

 

The only two people you're willing to give him credit for adding are Byard and a "maybe" on Ryan? Ryan wasn't an All-Pro to my knowledge, so I'm assuming you're saying you believe these are the only core players he has added?

He's drafted players that account for 2 All-Pro seasons in 3 years. You can't count the last draft class as they've been eligible to play in 3 games.

Conklin did have TE help. He was also good for 2 years prior to being injured and now all the sudden he's a horrible pick because he didn't bounce back like we hoped last year. He's been up and down this year, but so has the entire OL.

For comparison's sake, how many of the 2016-2018 Patriots draft picks have made All-Pro? I'm pretty sure it's 0. There are probably a lot of teams where that number is 0 for the same time frame. There aren't a lot of 21 to 24 year old All-Pros added to the NFL each year. And in FA, teams don't usually like to let guys go that they think are going to continue to produce All-Pro seasons.

[TitanSS]

23 minutes ago, SerenityNow said:

With the amount of picks got in that initial haul for the #1 Overall pick we should be seeing more results. Adoree was a bad pick when White was still on the board at CB. There's no doubt about that. Corey is harder for me to judge because of the lack of overall consistency from the offense since he's been here. Dodd was a bust, Austin Johnson is J.A.G. Derrick looks to be a guy that we can build around. His misses look worse because of the advantageous spot we were put in by that Rams trade. Since that trade the Rams have become a perennial Super Bowl contender, and we're still sitting back here in the land of the mediocre. JRob has done a lot of great things for this roster, but his misses with the amount of shots he had to take early on in his tenure here are not looking very good up to this point.

I 100% agree on this, but the thing is, Jackson is a starting NFL corner. He's not a shutdown by any means, but he has his ups and downs like most CBs do. If White's not on the board I don't think this looks quite as bad as the difference between Jackson and the next guy isn't going to be what it is between White and him.

He's had definite misses, but so has every other team in the NFL. That's just the nature of the draft.

Edited September 24, 2019 by TitanSS

[-Hope-]

9 minutes ago, TitanSS said:

I 100% agree on this, but the thing is, Jackson is a starting NFL corner. He's not a shutdown by any means, but he has his ups and downs like most CBs do. If White's not on the board I don't think this looks quite as bad as the difference between Jackson and the next guy isn't going to be what it is between White and him.

He's had definite misses, but so has every other team in the NFL. That's just the nature of the draft.

i think the thing that makes jackson way more painful is how atrocious he's been as a punt returner. that was supposed to be one of the biggest benefits of drafting him and instead he's possibly the worst punt returner in the league. i think we'd all be relatively ok (or at least more so) with his inconsistencies at CB if he were a good returner.

[TitanSS]

4 minutes ago, -Hope- said:

i think the thing that makes jackson way more painful is how atrocious he's been as a punt returner. that was supposed to be one of the biggest benefits of drafting him and instead he's possibly the worst punt returner in the league. i think we'd all be relatively ok (or at least more so) with his inconsistencies at CB if he were a good returner.

For sure, I absolutely hated the Jackson pick and was in love with White, so this one stings, but a lot of my hate for him comes when he gives up a big play and I immediately think of how mad I was when we drafted him. He was definitely a reach, but he's going to be a starter for awhile, if not for us, for someone else. 

I was also incredibly mad when we drafted Henry so what do I know.

Edited September 24, 2019 by TitanSS

[ragevsuall17]

4 hours ago, ragevsuall17 said:

But to skip all the other nonsense... aside from Byard, tell me 1 player he's brought in since his time here who is a slam dunk, core member of the team... a guy we can't let sniff FA? 

... But our core... our legit All Pro candidates consist of Lewan, Byard, and Casey (not so far this year).  

 

37 minutes ago, TitanSS said:

The only two people you're willing to give him credit for adding are Byard and a "maybe" on Ryan? Ryan wasn't an All-Pro to my knowledge, so I'm assuming you're saying you believe these are the only core players he has added?

He's drafted players that account for 2 All-Pro seasons in 3 years. You can't count the last draft class as they've been eligible to play in 3 games.

 

Core players... Players that become the foundation of your team... Players that are essential now and for the future... All Pro caliber players (not necessarily All Pro)... 

If the guys he drafted in the first 2 rounds on 16/17 (too early to discuss 18/19), he's got Conklin, Dodd, Henry, Johnson, Davis, and Jackson. Again, who are your core pieces from that group? Davis hopefully... Henry in a previous era. 

https://overthecap.com/looking-at-nfl-draft-success-since-2015/

And going past the first 2 rounds, I'll post this link again... It includes 2015, so 1 year pre Robinson (but includes 16 and 17, which is what we're focusing on here) ... And the results are not pretty:

Hit rate (simply, how many players are still in an NFL roster) - Titans, 62.5%- 32nd 

Expected hit rate (based on where picks were made, etc) - Titans, 75.8%,20th

Success rate - Titans, -17.5% - 32nd

Still on team - Titans 50% - 29th

Team success rate - Titans -19.8%, 30th

 

[ragevsuall17]

All that to say I'm not on the fire JRob or Vrabel train. 

They will decide this off season if they're sticking with Mariota or not. If they move on, they get what 3 years to show they made the right move. If they stick with him, another year or 2 (max if things remain the same)? 

I'm almost to the point where I think it's best for all parties involved to move on. Maybe both are better off without the other. 

My hope, whichever way we go, is that they're right... Cuz that means we're successful... And that's all that matters. If we move on though, we have to look at a qb in the first... And we have to be prepared to start him very early on, if not immediately. 

[deeluxx3]

5 hours ago, ragevsuall17 said:

 

 

Core players... Players that become the foundation of your team... Players that are essential now and for the future... All Pro caliber players (not necessarily All Pro)... 

If the guys he drafted in the first 2 rounds on 16/17 (too early to discuss 18/19), he's got Conklin, Dodd, Henry, Johnson, Davis, and Jackson. Again, who are your core pieces from that group? Davis hopefully... Henry in a previous era. 

https://overthecap.com/looking-at-nfl-draft-success-since-2015/

And going past the first 2 rounds, I'll post this link again... It includes 2015, so 1 year pre Robinson (but includes 16 and 17, which is what we're focusing on here) ... And the results are not pretty:

Hit rate (simply, how many players are still in an NFL roster) - Titans, 62.5%- 32nd 

Expected hit rate (based on where picks were made, etc) - Titans, 75.8%,20th

Success rate - Titans, -17.5% - 32nd

Still on team - Titans 50% - 29th

Team success rate - Titans -19.8%, 30th

 

oh thats bad

[TitanSS]

3 hours ago, deeluxx3 said:

oh thats bad

And one third of the statistics are not Jon Robinson picks, so it's not exactly his ranking. Two years after the 2015 draft and Mariota was the only player from it left on the team. That's going to really drop the percentage.

[TitanSS]

8 hours ago, ragevsuall17 said:

 

 

Core players... Players that become the foundation of your team... Players that are essential now and for the future... All Pro caliber players (not necessarily All Pro)... 

If the guys he drafted in the first 2 rounds on 16/17 (too early to discuss 18/19), he's got Conklin, Dodd, Henry, Johnson, Davis, and Jackson. Again, who are your core pieces from that group? Davis hopefully... Henry in a previous era. 

https://overthecap.com/looking-at-nfl-draft-success-since-2015/

And going past the first 2 rounds, I'll post this link again... It includes 2015, so 1 year pre Robinson (but includes 16 and 17, which is what we're focusing on here) ... And the results are not pretty:

Hit rate (simply, how many players are still in an NFL roster) - Titans, 62.5%- 32nd 

Expected hit rate (based on where picks were made, etc) - Titans, 75.8%,20th

Success rate - Titans, -17.5% - 32nd

Still on team - Titans 50% - 29th

Team success rate - Titans -19.8%, 30th

 

What other teams have brought in multiple All-Pros since the 2016 season? I mentioned the Patriots are at zero, what is the average number of All-Pro seasons had by a teams players drafted since 2016?

I would have to imagine 2 isn't significantly below average.

Edit: I saw you mentioned All-Pro caliber, but not All-Pro. I'm not exactly sure there's any way to compare this with other teams.

Did you only include the first two rounds solely to exclude him drafting the best safety in the NFL in the third round?

Two years is a very small sample size, and every team has misses. If Conklin is never injured and last year doesn't happen, are we even still having this conversation? If we had an actual NFL offense and Davis could be a volume WR do we have this conversation? 

What is the standard number of "core" players drafted in two years? Through any round. The Browns would be your best metric as they had even more picks than is during that time frame. Brown and Byard are absolutely in that conversation as must resigns. I would put Davis in there as well. Jackson is good enough to be reaigned, but not a must resign. I would try to bring Jonnu Smith back as well. He's really developed as a blocker and I think he is our #1 TE as far as snaps go. It's going to be hard to see him as a receiving threat in this offense and with Walker getting the attention as a receiver, but that's not all TEs do.

It's hard to take anything from a statistic where 33% of your data is irrelevant. What we can take from that is that we were bad collectively over those three years. We kept Mariota from the 2015 draft and that was it. Also, Robinson did have several misses in the 2016 draft. That second round stings. Johnson and Dodd were both terrible picks, even though I didn't think Johnson was at the time.

Edited September 24, 2019 by TitanSS

[KingTitan]

2 minutes ago, TitanSS said:

What other teams have brought in multiple All-Pros since the 2016 season? I mentioned the Patriots are at zero, what is the average number of All-Pro seasons had by a teams players drafted since 2016?

I would have to imagine 2 isn't significantly below average.

Did you only include the first rounda solely to exclude him drafting the best safety in the NFL in the third round?

Two years is a very small sample size, and every team has misses. If Conklin is never injured and last year doesn't happen, are we even still having this conversation? If we had an actual NFL offense and Davis could be a volume WR do we have this conversation? 

What is the standard number of "core" players drafted in two years? Through any round. The Browns would be your best metric as they had even more picks than is during that time frame.

Brown and Byard are absolutely in that conversation.

I think Robinson has drafted well and has supplemented that with some good/decent FA pick ups.  We have a very competitive team that is missing the X factor play, namely the QB to make it a continuous playoff-deep run in the playoff team.

You can't look at the Patriots and say, ooh yea, I'd take that player or this player over some of our guys or even the Colts. I'd take just about anyone in our secondary over theirs. 
But what is the difference? Coaching and scheme.  
Are we running a scheme that gets the most of our offensive players?  I think defensively we are doing right what we need too. Missing that surefire pass rusher.

If the expectation is that a GM hits on every first rounder or second rounder, that isn't going to happen. Sometimes you just get serviceable guys for that 3-4 years of their contract and your get another guy. 

I think that with the way the salary cap is going and the way contracts are being set up, I wouldn't be surprised if teams start to treat the draft and FA like recruiting. Get the most out of a player for 4 years and "recruit" their replacement.