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RuskieTitan

Aaron Donald holdout expected to miss Week 1

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1 minute ago, Yin-Yang said:

Not sure what he plans to accomplish. His mega deal is incoming whether he holds out or not. Maybe it'll come a little bit sooner, but after the fines, time missed, and potentially-missed games, is it worth it? He's not adding tens of millions onto his contract by holding out. 

And yes, I get it becomes more relevant when factoring in risk of injury, but I'm still not sure the risk-reward is worth it.

What risk is he facing exactly by holding out?

And I'm sure when that deal is signed, part of it will be the wiping out of these fines.  It almost always is. 

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13 minutes ago, Gmen said:

 

Donald will get paid one way or another eventually.  He should wait just like the rest of the players from his draft class.  There is insurance if you're worried about injury.  Once you start costing your team games by being unavailable, your value should go down.

Him getting paid is not a guarantee. An injury could definitely happen,  and it doesn't have to be something super significant like shredding a knee. Look at Mo Wilkerson. He was a shell of himself last year after a broken leg. He's not getting the contract he got 2 years ago if he had been up for a new one this year. Heck, if his on the field play takes a dive this year or next, or if he's not even the guy that he has been, the value of his contract goes down. Why take that risk? He should absolutely want to cash in at peak value.  

Who pays the premiums on the insurance? Does he, or does the team? Those things aren't cheap. And loss of value payouts aren't as great as you think. Jake Butt received a little over 500K. If you think that he was a second round pick before the injury (not a guarantee, but really the only thing we have to base it on is mock drafts and the like, and quite a few had him logged into the second round), he lost at least 1.5 million if you're using the last person picked in the second round. 

And none of these are really reasons why he shouldn't hold out. 

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1 minute ago, beezee said:

What risk is he facing exactly by holding out?

And I'm sure when that deal is signed, part of it will be the wiping out of these fines.  It almost always is. 

Well, there's the fines (we don't know they'll be wiped away). There's the injury risk - guys thrown into the fray after missing pre-season/regular season games have shown to be more injury prone. There's the risk of the team thinking he's not as team-friendly, and said feeling reflecting in the contract (not that it'll be a significant amount, and we'll never know if this happens for sure). And then there's the risk of his teammates being a bit more divisive if they feel he's hurting the team for a deal he will ultimately get anyway. 

What if every player in a contract year missed games until they got the deal they wanted? The league would be worse off for it.

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With all that being said, I do agree with the several people who feel like he's probably not going to get anywhere with this. I find it very unlikely that he gets a new deal this year, but there's nothing wrong with trying to get one. The only leverage that he has is stepping on to the field. If there were another option that allowed him to play but still have leverage to get a new contract, he may have tried that. 

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1 minute ago, Yin-Yang said:

Well, there's the fines (we don't know they'll be wiped away). There's the injury risk - guys thrown into the fray after missing pre-season/regular season games have shown to be more injury prone. There's the risk of the team thinking he's not as team-friendly, and said feeling reflecting in the contract (not that it'll be a significant amount, and we'll never know if this happens for sure). And then there's the risk of his teammates being a bit more divisive if they feel he's hurting the team for a deal he will ultimately get anyway. 

What if every player in a contract year missed games until they got the deal they wanted? The league would be worse off for it.

I agree with this...but question, doesn't that mean that once he has decided to hold out, he needs to commit to it for the long haul? 

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Just now, Yin-Yang said:

Well, there's the fines (we don't know they'll be wiped away). There's the injury risk - guys thrown into the fray after missing pre-season/regular season games have shown to be more injury prone. There's the risk of the team thinking he's not as team-friendly, and said feeling reflecting in the contract (not that it'll be a significant amount, and we'll never know if this happens for sure). And then there's the risk of his teammates being a bit more divisive if they feel he's hurting the team for a deal he will ultimately get anyway. 

What if every player in a contract year missed games until they got the deal they wanted? The league would be worse off for it.

I don't disagree.  The problem is, for "every player" to do that, the reward would have to heavily outweigh the risk.  But the average player, that isn't the case.  Only the superstars know that it for sure does and that due to their skill, they can demand certain things and the teams will inevitably comply if they want to keep them.  Donald is one of them.  His holdout, aside from your point of potentially being injured due to sitting out, is essentially risk free.  He has the Rams hostage because, as others have said, he's getting his money one way or another.

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10 minutes ago, showtime said:

He does have leverage.  He is the best player on the team and he could just not play - which severely will hurt the team.

But they're gonna suck whether he plays or not.

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17 minutes ago, RuskieTitan said:

I don't recall any players who got new contracts with 2+ year's remaining on their rookie deals, if I'm not mistaken. At least none of the first round players that teams can keep for an additional year for cheap.

Been trying to think of one, and I can't either. I don't disagree with you that he's got an uphill battle to climb to get a new contract this year - I find it highly unlikely that he will. But I won't ever begrudge a player for trying to get his the moment he can. 

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6 minutes ago, showtime said:

He does have leverage.  He is the best player on the team and he could just not play - which severely will hurt the team.

There is no chance in hell Donald sits out the season. He would be a moron to considering the consequences, primarily that it would add another year to his deal. The team knows it. The agent knows it. Donald knows it. They all know he will be back. 

It is exactly why this holdout will go no differently than any other regular season holdout. Maybe if the Rams were in a win-now mode they would rush to sign him, but they aren't. They have no reason to budge before Donald does.

 

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4 minutes ago, showtime said:

He does have leverage.  He is the best player on the team and he could just not play - which severely will hurt the team.

Well, that's not entirely true.  He has to be active for 6 games (if not on IR) in order to accrue a season of service, otherwise he doesn't tick one of the years off his (rookie) contract.

The urgency in him seeking this deal now is likely because of the looming likelihood of another lockout with CBA discussions on the horizon.  He's also 26 (and was a 23 year old rookie), so if the team was to Cousins him (which I'm sure his agent has tried to play up as a possibility) and tag him twice before ever giving him a deal, he could conceivably be 30 before ever seeing the big pay day (franchise tenders aside).

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1 minute ago, Forge said:

I agree with this...but question, doesn't that mean that once he has decided to hold out, he needs to commit to it for the long haul? 

Well, it's chicken. Whomever blinks first. I'm sure some guys (Le'Veon Bell) holdout to instill some urgency in the front offices, but don't want to miss games for whatever reason. Some guys - like Donald - are or at least appear to be all-in.  

I feel this is more appropriate for a guy like Kansas Chancellor, who was being underpaid but also not on a rookie contract, and IIRC he had more years left on the deal. Not a guy on a designed, team-friendly contract.

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4 minutes ago, beezee said:

I don't disagree.  The problem is, for "every player" to do that, the reward would have to heavily outweigh the risk.  But the average player, that isn't the case.  Only the superstars know that it for sure does and that due to their skill, they can demand certain things and the teams will inevitably comply if they want to keep them.  Donald is one of them.  His holdout, aside from your point of potentially being injured due to sitting out, is essentially risk free.  He has the Rams hostage because, as others have said, he's getting his money one way or another.

Every superstar, then. What if all the star players/up and comers held out and missed games when there were two years left on their rookie deals? 

I think he's more likely to get injured after missing the regular season games/training camp than he is if he were to go about his business like most other players. So I don't like the risk-reward.

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The Rams and Donald have been negotiating they just aren't doing it in the press so people seem to think they're not trying to give him an extension. One of the few reports we have from somebody who can be considered anywhere near an "insider" says the contract is similar to Von Miller's only paying him more AAV. The hold up seems to be his agent doesn't like the way the guaranteed is spread out. Vons has some of the guaranteed in the last couple of years triggered by club options and that seems to be the hang up. Rams have an offer on the table to make him the highest paid defensive player and he hasn't signed it.

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2 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Every superstar, then. What if all the star players/up and comers held out and missed games when there were two years left on their rookie deals? 

I think he's more likely to get injured after missing the regular season games/training camp than he is if he were to go about his business like most other players. So I don't like the risk-reward.

If they did then teams would have to deal with it.  I certainly wouldn't blame them.  That's like asking "What if every team started cutting players who weren't performing up to their cap number with 2 years left on their deals?"

I don't know what kind of working out he's been doing, so I can't comment on that side of it.  I do agree that the increased risk is there, but not how much higher it is.  However, IMO, getting a hell of a lot more money is well worth the risk.  I'd rather get hurt and count my money vs. play and not have nearly as much to count.  But that's just me (and apparently Donald too).

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5 minutes ago, The LBC said:

Well, that's not entirely true.  He has to be active for 6 games (if not on IR) in order to accrue a season of service, otherwise he doesn't tick one of the years off his (rookie) contract.

The urgency in him seeking this deal now is likely because of the looming likelihood of another lockout with CBA discussions on the horizon.  He's also 26 (and was a 23 year old rookie), so if the team was to Cousins him (which I'm sure his agent has tried to play up as a possibility) and tag him twice before ever giving him a deal, he could conceivably be 30 before ever seeing the big pay day (franchise tenders aside).

You make a fair point.  I'm not saying anyone here is doing this, but some people act like the player doesn't really have much leverage because he has a deal that last longer than one year.  If the player holding out is by far the best player on your roster, that has a huge impact.  Aaron Donald not being there effects every layer of the defense in a negative way.    My overall point was, even though I did not make this clear, when a player of this magnitude decides to hold out, everyone loses.  Someone said "The team is going to suck whether Donald plays or not", but that's not the point.  When the season starts everyone's record is 0-0 and there is plenty of hope.  Even if the Rams do not make the postseason, one of the most important things is progression - moving forward in a positive light.  Having your best player sit out does the opposite of all of that.

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