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Aaron Donald holdout expected to miss Week 1

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I look at it this way:

1. Donald holds out, the Rams suck even worse when he was there, but now there is a quantitative way to value him as a player (you can look at their defensive statistics without him). He also doesn't risk injury (this is a big key, I think). He then gets his mega deal.

2. Donald reports, gets injured, then a bunch of questions rise.

3. Donald reports, plays, gets his mega deal.

I think either way he's getting his mega deal, the only thing that could potentially hinder that is an injury, which only happens if he plays. IMO, he's making the smart move here. He loses nothing by not playing. The Rams, on the other hand, lose their franchise's best player.

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12 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

I feel this is more appropriate for a guy like Kansas Chancellor, who was being underpaid but also not on a rookie contract, and IIRC he had more years left on the deal. Not a guy on a designed, team-friendly contract.

So you think it's more appropriate for a guy to hold out on a contract that he had a say in originally moreso than a guy on a contract that he had no control over despite them both being severely underpaid?

What is logic?

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He has out played his contract 4-5 times over. He should hold out. 
Browns will have him if the Rams don't want him, hell id give two firsts and big fat Danny Shelton. 

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Just now, Kiwibrown said:

He has out played his contract 4-5 times over. He should hold out. 
Browns will have him if the Rams don't want him, hell id give two firsts and big fat Danny Shelton. 

This is actually interesting, because I just answered a question about this in the Rams forum. If they were inclined to trade him, what's the market? Are there any decent trade comps out there to establish value? The only thing I could think of was the Jared Allen trade, and that is not an ideal trade comp due to positional differences and role, but they were the same age I believe (both 26), and Allen was coming off a season in which he was a first team all pro (Donald has been first team all pro the last two years). 

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2 minutes ago, showtime said:

You make a fair point.  I'm not saying anyone here is doing this, but some people act like the player doesn't really have much leverage because he has a deal that last longer than one year.  If the player holding out is by far the best player on your roster, that has a huge impact.  Aaron Donald not being there effects every layer of the defense in a negative way.    My overall point was, even though I did not make this clear, when a player of this magnitude decides to hold out, everyone loses.  Someone said "The team is going to suck whether Donald plays or not", but that's not the point.  When the season starts everyone's record is 0-0 and there is plenty of hope.  Even if the Rams do not make the postseason, one of the most important things is progression - moving forward in a positive light.  Having your best player sit out does the opposite of all of that.

Oh, I totally get it.  Though, I would contend he really doesn't have a ton of leverage - or at least what he does have is synthesized.  His leverage is based solely in his level of talent and it is kind of dwarfed by the leverage that the team has - because they're still going to want to exercise the 5th year option before giving him any extension as they'll want the additional year to allocate the cap-hits of his signing bonus (which is what he's really after as any "extension" wouldn't kick in on increased salary until after the current contract ran to term) over.

The fines are a moot point - he's not going to end up paying them one way or another, either they'll get waived or his agent has already agreed to pay them for him, because his agent knows that his percentage of the new deal is going to be fat as all get-out (and the size of the deal will also help the agent with recruiting future big names to his label).

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1 minute ago, Forge said:

This is actually interesting, because I just answered a question about this in the Rams forum. If they were inclined to trade him, what's the market? Are there any decent trade comps out there to establish value? The only thing I could think of was the Jared Allen trade, and that is not an ideal trade comp due to positional differences and role, but they were the same age I believe (both 26), and Allen was coming off a season in which he was a first team all pro (Donald has been first team all pro the last two years). 

would you take that trade I offered? 

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Just now, Kiwibrown said:

would you take that trade I offered? 

If I were the Rams? I think so, yes. Tough to give up a superstar, and obviously there's a real good chance that neither of those picks pans out, so I understand it from either perspective why people would say no, but I'd be banking on that first year first rounder being a really good pick. 

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6 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said:

He has out played his contract 4-5 times over. He should hold out. 
Browns will have him if the Rams don't want him, hell id give two firsts and big fat Danny Shelton. 

While it is very intriguing to have two first rounders from a team who routinely produces poor regular season records - I would still rather have Aaron Donald.

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Just now, Kiwibrown said:

It would be our worst 1st. probably the deshaun watson one. could sill be top 12.

Then no.

Despite what people want to paint it as, the Rams still have leverage here.  And it's foolish to give up a Top 2 defensive player in the league with two years of contract control without getting a Top 10 pick at minimum, more likely something with decent Top 5 potential.  It's a case of proven commodity versus betting on potential.

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Just now, The LBC said:

Then no.

Despite what people want to paint it as, the Rams still have leverage here.  And it's foolish to give up a Top 2 defensive player in the league with two years of contract control without getting a Top 10 pick at minimum, more likely something with decent Top 5 potential.  It's a case of proven commodity versus betting on potential.

I'm probably in line with this. Cleveland's own first rounder, I'm definitely listening...Houston's first rounder, I'm probably leaning the other way. 

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7 minutes ago, showtime said:

You make a fair point.  I'm not saying anyone here is doing this, but some people act like the player doesn't really have much leverage because he has a deal that last longer than one year.  If the player holding out is by far the best player on your roster, that has a huge impact.  Aaron Donald not being there effects every layer of the defense in a negative way.    My overall point was, even though I did not make this clear, when a player of this magnitude decides to hold out, everyone loses.  Someone said "The team is going to suck whether Donald plays or not", but that's not the point.  When the season starts everyone's record is 0-0 and there is plenty of hope.  Even if the Rams do not make the postseason, one of the most important things is progression - moving forward in a positive light.  Having your best player sit out does the opposite of all of that.

Not always true. Sure it hurts the defense without him. But he isnt the only defensive talent we have. The only guys who can really force the contract faster with a hold out are QBs, teams can not fuction without their QB. You can change the scheme up (especially one like Wade Phillips') to function without your star DT.

With this line of thinking, you are basically saying "the team cant win without me, they'll see, then realize they have to pay me" but actually look at the start of the season. Some of you will laugh at this, but the Rams could start 3-0. They start the year at home vs the Colts sans-Luck. Then they have Washington come in and know one knows Cousins better than McVay (maybe other than Shanahan), and then they make a short road trip to the Niners, who arguably have the worst roster in the NFL organically (Not the Bills or Jets purging players)

Then with that mindset, you have shot yourself in the foot. The team know sees they can win without you, and all that money they have set aside for you (already reported as the highest paid defensive player in the league) and say maybe we should spend this elsewhere, and we will chop off a million or two of your AAV. Probably not the path they would take, but that route doesnt help your case at all.

But say they start 0-5 without you. Are they going to feel you alone, a Defensive Lineman, would completely turn the ship around and they would back another extra wheelbarrow of money up for you? Nope, in that case they have already offered you the most money without your contract being up, and they clearly arent a super bowl contender, so why should they throw more money at you to be maybe 2-3 instead of 0-5?

 

If the reports are true that they have already offered to make him the highest paid defensive player, what else is his agent waiting on? Some have said he wants an Opt out, but with only likely a 6 year deal, giving him an opt out any time before he gives you 4 more years would just be dumb by the Rams. If its due to some Rams opt out language I would understand. But I havent heard that yet.

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3 minutes ago, beezee said:

If they did then teams would have to deal with it.  I certainly wouldn't blame them.  That's like asking "What if every team started cutting players who weren't performing up to their cap number with 2 years left on their deals?"

I don't know what kind of working out he's been doing, so I can't comment on that side of it.  I do agree that the increased risk is there, but not how much higher it is.  However, IMO, getting a hell of a lot more money is well worth the risk.  I'd rather get hurt and count my money vs. play and not have nearly as much to count.  But that's just me (and apparently Donald too).

Riiight. Because the league would be great if OBJ, Mike Evans, Aaron Donald, Le'Veon Bell, Drew Brees, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Malcolm Butler, Jadeveon Clowney, Sammy Watkins, CJ Mosley, Brandin Cooks, Zack Martin, Taylor Lewan, and countless others missed the regular season (or 10 games). 

We can agree to disagree on the injury risk. I've seen Revis come back and get hurt. I've seen Chris Johnson come back and get hurt. Larry Johnson. Steven Jackson. 

Guess I just dislike the idea of having guys intentionally hurt the team - go figure (didn't love Kam doing it either).

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25 minutes ago, beezee said:

So you think it's more appropriate for a guy to hold out on a contract that he had a say in originally moreso than a guy on a contract that he had no control over despite them both being severely underpaid?

What is logic?

Perhaps critical thinking. 

Kam was being underpaid with 3 (IIRC) years left on his deal. After suffering an injury and laying through it in the super bowl, he may have felt his mortality. He wanted to be paid like he deserved before he exited his prime and thus would miss out on ever having a big payday.

Donald on the other hand, is going through what every player goes through. A rookie deal. A deal that is designed by the league to be team friendly. He's taking his lumps, same as everyone (or mostly everyone, excluding guys who get extended right before their controlled 5th year...which Donald might have been anyway). But he's going to get his mega deal, because he won't be 30 years old when his rookie deal is up. Donald also has less bearings than Chancellor, because Kam would later watch Wagner, ET, Wilson, and Sherman be paid like the elite of their position, while he wasn't. Don't recall the Rams setting that precedent yet. 

All this, and I still wasn't happy Kam missed regular season games. The defense needed him and it suffered because of it. The fact that I have less a problem with it, doesn't mean I don't have a problem at all.

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1 hour ago, Gmen said:

Both he and OBJ are from the same draft class and similar caliber players.  For all the crap OBJ gets for being a diva, at least he's out there working hard and doing his job despite being severely underpaid as well.  I don't mind if players miss training camp and preseason with a holdout.  But when the games start to matter, get out there and continue to prove your worth.

I have no issue with Donald holding out but if this was Odell I can only imagine the reaction. 

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