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Week 4 GDT: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos


Joe_is_the_best

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Also, as bad as Denver’s OL and the play of Bolles has been, PFF graded Denver as the 15th best OL through 3 weeks.  Again, just tells you how bad OL play is overall in this league.  Haha and I don’t want to hear that it doesn’t take into account defensive talent because Denver has went against the best defensive front in the NFL in Chicago and compared to what Washington did against the Bears Denver deserves that ranking.

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Just now, germ-x said:

Also, as bad *** Denver’s OL and the play of Bolles has been, PFF graded Denver as the 15th best OL through 3 weeks.  Again, just tells you how bad OL play is overall in this league.  Haha and I don’t want to hear that it doesn’t take into account defensive talent because Denver has went against the best defensive front in the NFL in Chicago and compared to what Washington did against the Bears Denver deserves that ranking.

I wonder if they take into account how bad Flacco has been. Dude is a statue and holds on to the ball way too long especially in the red zone.

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1 minute ago, iLikeDefense said:

I wonder if they take into account how bad Flacco has been. Dude is a statue and holds on to the ball way too long especially in the red zone.

It doesn’t, but it tells you how important a QB can be for OL play.  Not only is Flacco a statue, but this team and going on 3 years now, just can’t get anything done vertically in the passing game.  When you can’t threaten teams with chunk plays you’re in big trouble as an offense and offensive line.

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10 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Also, as bad *** Denver’s OL and the play of Bolles has been, PFF graded Denver as the 15th best OL through 3 weeks.  Again, just tells you how bad OL play is overall in this league.  Haha and I don’t want to hear that it doesn’t take into account defensive talent because Denver has went against the best defensive front in the NFL in Chicago and compared to what Washington did against the Bears Denver deserves that ranking.

As a run blocking unit they belong in the top 10.  As a pass blocking unit though, bottom 10 easily.     Sadly, in this league, you can't have that kind of imbalance. 

DVOA captures this really well - DEN's OL is 9th in run blocking, but woefully 26th in pass blocking.   It also correlates incredibly well with the eye test. 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019

(And of note - after week 4, DVOA will adjust for opposition faced and re-do the analysis.  Why I prefer it significantly for unit-based play FWIW).

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^^^ it doesn’t even have to be long developing plays.  Manning didn’t do this his last 2 years.  But when you get single coverage on the outside you have to throw that up and give your receiver a chance to make a play (literally all Manning did in 2015).  These plays don’t even take an OL 2 seconds to block, but it’s about recognition for a QB and putting the football where it isn’t going to end up being an INT.

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1 hour ago, germ-x said:

Didn’t know where to put this, but saw Harris made a comment that in so many words said, Fangio is doing everything he can defensively, but at some point you have to have players.  

I like the fact that Harris seems to like what Fangio is doing, but on the flip side I think this is an incredibly stupid comment in regards to this defense (and maybe he did it as either a shot at Elway or to light a fire under some players), but this defense is far more talented than what they’ve produced.  To say something like that with himself (top 5 CB), Miller (an expected defensive MVP candidate), Chubb (top 5 pick coming of double digit sacks), Wolfe/Gotsis (solid run defenders), Jackson (as versatile as there is in the NFL and arguably the best defensive player thus far) and Shelby Harris who I really expected to take a big leap and hasn’t, is ballsy as hell.  

I don't know. I think it's easier to put it on your teammates than on the coaches when you're as good as Harris is. What are Corey Nelson and Isaac Yiadom going to say? 

Wolfe, Gotsis and Harris all look like they're just there. I don't really care to re-sign any of them from what we've seen so far. If Gotsis doesn't find an initial market, maybe. But I think there are upgrades to be had, and even in a moneyball fashion where a few cheap run stuffers can do the same job or better for half the price. 

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2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

As a run blocking unit they belong in the top 10.  As a pass blocking unit though, bottom 10 easily.     Sadly, in this league, you can't have that kind of imbalance. 

DVOA captures this really well - DEN's OL is 9th in run blocking, but woefully 26th in pass blocking.   Also correlates incredibly well with the eye test. 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019

Again though, this doesn’t account for the QB.  You can nit pick all these grading systems and PFFs is still the best because they take each individual OL into account.  Even the woefully 26th ranking is with Bolles being the worst LT in football just based on penalties alone vs Chicago.

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4 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Again though, this doesn’t account for the QB.  You can nit pick all these grading systems and PFFs is still the best because they take each individual OL into account.  Even the woefully 26th ranking is with Bolles being the worst LT in football just based on penalties alone vs Chicago.

DVOA actually takes into account opposition, so it will stay my favorite for unit-based play, but we don't need to agree.   

The thing that's pretty cool about DVOA - it shows run direction effectiveness, and what it shows also matches the eye test - McGovern & Risner are playing really well as a tandem there (duh on Risner in general).   What wasn't expected is that McGovern's shown an ability on many runs to get to the 2nd and 3rd level quickly.   If he can even just be "decent" in pass pro, that's a huge W for us.   For all of the criticism about his snaps and his pass-blocking being nowhere near his run blocking in the preseason, both the film and metrics suggest that the McGovern-Risner combo is one worth preserving, at least for another season, to see what Munchak can do.    Obv. the RT analysis no matter what method we use is skewed by the fact James played half a game.   

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Watched the interview and it was a pretty good listen. Love how candid Chris is, one of the few guys you can take things away from.

Btw, Harris had this one second reaction when asked about Callahan's absence that just looked like bottled up annoyance/frustration exploding for the briefest moment. Every time I've heard Harris talk about Callahan since he was signed...not exactly excitement. Just kinda found it interesting. 

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1 minute ago, BroncoBruin said:

Watched the interview and it was a pretty good listen. Love how candid Chris is, one of the few guys you can take things away from.

Btw, Harris had this one second reaction when asked about Callahan's absence that just looked like bottled up annoyance/frustration exploding for the briefest moment. Every time I've heard Harris talk about Callahan since he was signed...not exactly excitement. Just kinda found it interesting. 

The context of course is that Harris had to fight to get his $ while Callahan and Kareem Jackson got paid.  So when you can't get on the field....well, there's bound to be some resentment.   I wouldn't put too much stock into it, it's human nature to doubt the value on the expensive new guy - until he shows it on the field.   Callahan has zero cred with DEN fans and players, so it's a prove-it situation.   It's part of the warrior mentality football guys need, but it creates these weird types of dynamics.

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2 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

I don't know. I think it's easier to put it on your teammates than on the coaches when you're as good as Harris is. What are Corey Nelson and Isaac Yiadom going to say? 

Wolfe, Gotsis and Harris all look like they're just there. I don't really care to re-sign any of them from what we've seen so far. If Gotsis doesn't find an initial market, maybe. But I think there are upgrades to be had, and even in a moneyball fashion where a few cheap run stuffers can do the same job or better for half the price. 

I don’t disagree with Wolfe/Gotsis.  Wolfe at this point isn’t what he once was and Gotsis is just a run defender.  Harris has been good though, I think he’s fed up with this organization and burnt out not getting paid and losing.

Outside of Miller/Chubb I think the most disappointing player has been Shelby Harris.  He’s done nothing after being a terrific player last year.  I actually thought from a FO standpoint he was a guy Denver should’ve been locking up cheap for the next 3 years.  I was disappointed Denver didn’t, but that’s looking like the right call at this point.

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3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

DVOA actually takes into account opposition, so it will stay my favorite for unit-based play, but we don't need to agree.   

The thing that's pretty cool about DVOA - it shows run direction, and what it shows also matches the eye test - McGovern & Risner are playing really well as a tandem.   McGovern's shown an ability on several runs to get to the 2nd and 3rd level quickly.   If he can even just be "decent" in pass pro, that's a huge W for us.   For all of the criticism about his snaps and his pass-blocking nowhere near his run blocking, both the film and metrics suggest that the McGovern-Risner combo is one worth preserving, at least for another season, to see what Munchak can do.    Obv. the RT analysis no matter what method we use is skewed by the fact James played half a game.   

McGovern should be priority #1 to re-sign IMO. Three centers in three years would not be ideal. 

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1 minute ago, germ-x said:

I don’t disagree with Wolfe/Gotsis.  Wolfe at this point isn’t what he once was and Gotsis is just a run defender.  Harris has been good though, I think he’s fed up with this organization and burnt out not getting paid and losing.

Outside of Miller/Chubb I think the most disappointing player has been Shelby Harris.  He’s done nothing after being a terrific player last year.  I actually thought from a FO standpoint he was a guy Denver should’ve been locking up cheap for the next 3 years.  I was disappointed Denver didn’t, but that’s looking like the right call at this point.

Oh I meant Shelby. Chris is doing what he's done for 8 years: his job at the highest level. 

I don't think Shelby really fits the defense. He's more of a Wade nose tackle. Vic does ask his NTs to penetrate but they're always on the stouter side. 

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5 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I don’t disagree with Wolfe/Gotsis.  Wolfe at this point isn’t what he once was and Gotsis is just a run defender.  Harris has been good though, I think he’s fed up with this organization and burnt out not getting paid and losing.

Outside of Miller/Chubb I think the most disappointing player has been Shelby Harris.  He’s done nothing after being a terrific player last year.  I actually thought from a FO standpoint he was a guy Denver should’ve been locking up cheap for the next 3 years.  I was disappointed Denver didn’t, but that’s looking like the right call at this point.

To be fair to Shelby Harris, he's being asked to do an entirely different role.   Instead of being the penetrating "quick" NT that Wade Phillips wants out of his 0 and 3-techs (the 2 spots he's playing) - he's being asked to be more of a run-plugging 0-tech and more passive on passing downs - and failing miserably.   He's supposed to play more like Akeem Hicks does on CHI, but he's not that type of stay at home, and support the rushers player, who gets his hands up, and then cleans up when the EDGES push the QB inside.   Taking away his attack mode has him clearly so passive he's not effective.   

Harris likely won't stay with us, poor scheme fit - but he's the one guy most likely to pull a Shaq-like resurgence on the right team.   Unlike Shaq, where it was a case where the draft capital in Chubb negated his ability to return, it's hard to justify spending FA $ simply because it's unlikelly Fangio's scheme is going to change to fit Harris' ability.   And unlike Shaq, I don't think Harris can be an elite guy at his position - just a really good one if he gets back into a Wade Phillips system.  So I don't mind if we let him walk if the market gets too steep.   And yeah, that was likely a horrific 2nd contract avoided, even though the talent is likely the same, but the scheme fit is totally gone.

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2 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

McGovern should be priority #1 to re-sign IMO. Three centers in three years would not be ideal. 

Agreed and with McGovern I don’t think it makes signing/drafting an OC out of possibility.  Obviously having 3 in 3 years isn’t ideal, but he isn’t a slouch at OG either.  He’s easily a starting caliber OC/OG and I would assume he comes on a friendly deal.

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