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Quarterback Rankings (final regular season 2019)


RandyMossIsBoss

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Here are various top 10 lists of oft quoted passing statistics, ratings, grades, etc. that I will update throughout the season. I think it will be nice having them in one place. Also to compare which "system" seems to most accurately reflect QB play.

 

Passer Rating

  Player Passer Rating
1 Ryan Tannehill 117.5
2 Drew Brees 116.3
3 Lamar Jackson 113.3
4 Kirk Cousins 107.4
5 Russell Wilson 106.3
6 Matthew Stafford 106
7 Patrick Mahomes 105.3
8 Jimmy Garoppolo 102
9 Derek Carr 100.8
10 Dak Prescott 99.7

 

Total QBR

  Player Total QBR
1
Lamar Jackson
81.7
2
Patrick Mahomes
76.4
3
Drew Brees
71.8
4
Dak Prescott
70.6
5
Matthew Stafford
70.2
6
Russell Wilson
69.8
7
Deshaun Watson
68.9
8
Ryan Fitzpatrick
66.6
9
Ryan Tannehill
62.5
10
Derek Carr
62.4

 

PFF

  Player PFF
1 Ryan Tannehill 92.5
2 Drew Brees 91.2
3 Russell Wilson 91.2
4 Lamar Jackson 91.1
5 Kirk Cousins 84.3
6 Pat Mahomes 84.1
7 Matthew Stafford 82.4
8 Aaron Rodgers 81.2
9 Deshaun Watson 81.0
10 Dak Prescott 80.3

 

DVOA

  Player DVOA
1 Drew Brees 40.1%
2 Lamar Jackson 35.3%
3 Pat Mahomes 30.0%
4 Matthew Stafford 28.8%
5 Ryan Tannehill 28.1%
6 Dak Prescott 27.2%
7 Russell Wilson 25.2%
8 Derek Carr 18.9%
9 Kirk Cousins 14.5%
10 Jimmy Garoppolo 11.2%

 

Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt

  Player ANY/A
1 Ryan Tannehill 8.52
2 Patrick Mahomes 8.38
3 Drew Brees 8.33
4 Lamar Jackson 8.19
5 Matthew Stafford 8.15
6 Dak Prescott 7.84
7 Kirk Cousins 7.73
8 Russell Wilson 7.42
9 Derek Carr 7.25
10 Jimmy Garoppolo 7.22

 

 

 

Aggregate of these 5 lists (if you were to hold each in equal regard)

  QB PR QBR PFF DVOA ANY/A Avg
1 Drew Brees 2 3 2 1 3 2.2
2 Lamar Jackson 3 1 4 2 4 2.8
3 Ryan Tannehill 1 9 1 5 1 3.4
4 Patrick Mahomes 7 2 6 3 2 4.0
5 Matthew Stafford 6 5 7 4 5 5.4
6 Russell Wilson 5 6 2 7 8 5.6
7 Dak Prescott 10 4 10 6 6 7.2
8 Kirk Cousins 4 13 5 9 7 7.6
9 Derek Carr 9 10 12 8 9 9.6
10 Deshaun Watson 11 7 9 11 12 10.0
11 Jimmy Garoppolo 8 12 13 10 10 10.6
12 Aaron Rodgers 12 20 8 12 11 12.6
13 Carson Wentz 13 11 16 20 16 15.2
14 Matt Ryan 14 14 15 13 20 15.2
15 Tom Brady 19 16 10 16 17 15.6
16 Philip Rivers 17 22 17 14 15 17.0
17 Ryan Fitzpatrick 23 8 14 19 22 17.2
18 Jared Goff 22 24 19 17 13 19.0
19 Gardner Minshew 15 27 20 22 14 19.6
20 Jacoby Brissett 18 21 29 15 21 20.8
21 Drew Lock 16 23 30 18 18 21.0
22 Kyler Murray 21 15 25 21 24 21.2
23 Jameis Winston 25 18 21 24 19 21.4
24 Daniel Jones 20 17 24 28 26 23.0
25 Baker Mayfield 30 19 18 23 27 23.4
26 Josh Allen 24 25 26 26 23 24.8
27 Sam Darnold 26 26 28 29 25 26.8
28 Andy Dalton 31 29 23 25 28 27.2
29 Mitchell Trubisky 27 28 27 27 29 27.6
30 Mason Rudolph 28 31 31 30 30 30.0
31 Dwayne Haskins 32 32 22 32 32 30.0
32 Kyle Allen 29 30 32 31 31 30.6
 

 

From what takes the least into account to what takes the most into account:

Passer Rating= completion %, Y/A, TD% and INT%

ANY/A= similar to passer rating but weighed differently + sacks and yards lost on sacks are added to the equation

DVOA= the outcome of every play is compared to the league average in that same situation, every box score factor possible is utilized. For QBs, DVOA does not include running, unlike QBR.

QBR= similar to DVOA, but with a touch of subjectivity that goes beyond box score (drops, bad plays that weren't fault of QB, etc.), and a clutch factor (more weight towards plays in situations deemed clutch)

PFF= every play is looked at and given a grade, the final grade is the cumulative score of every play normalized to a 0-100 scale

 

 

 

Edited by RandyMossIsBoss
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8 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Mahomes at 6 by PFF is a joke

Darts thrown at a wall. That's what they do. 

I remember Dak's first preseason, he happened to be playing the Fins. After zing-zing-zing laser-beam passes I was like "ok, this rookie is not normal." Even in a preseason game, he stood out. Confident, accurate. And look at him now a few years later. 

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2 hours ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt

1 Pat Mahomes 11.77
2 Dak Prescott 10.39
3 Tom Brady 9.50
4 Lamar Jackson 9.15
5 Russell Wilson 8.67
6 Gardner Minshew 7.62
7 Matthew Stafford 7.61
8 Jimmy Garoppolo 7.47
9 Deshaun Watson 7.46
10 Kirk Cousins 7.14

As a reminder to everyone, this is the most highly correlated stat in all of football to winning*. So, imo, its the most important. 

*technically is ANY/A over opponent.

Edited by Matts4313
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49 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Mahomes at 6 by PFF is a joke

Yeah I really have absolutely no idea how they are getting that rating for Mahomes. Are they being extra harsh on his mistakes or just not giving him enough credit? Their write up mentions too many "negative throws" https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-rankings-nfl-quarterback-rankings-following-week-3. Their system, which mixes eye test with a number on a scale, is also especially messy for players like Mahomes whose highlight plays likely should break the scale.

It's PFF though so not exactly surprising.

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13 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Yeah I really have absolutely no idea how they are getting that rating for Mahomes. Are they being extra harsh on his mistakes or just not giving him enough credit? Their write up mentions too many "negative throws" https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-rankings-nfl-quarterback-rankings-following-week-3. Their system, which mixes eye test with a number on a scale, is also especially messy for players like Mahomes whose highlight plays likely should break the scale.

It's PFF though so not exactly surprising.

It also mentions fumbles. Thats one of the reasons they ranked Zeke 35 or whatever last year. They are super harsh on that.

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4 minutes ago, RuskieTitan said:

The fact that Marcus Mariota is in the top ten tells you all you need to know about the value of passer rating as a statistic. 

Passer rating has a stronger correlation to winning than a lot of other stats though, simple because it rewards efficient QBs. Complete a lot of passes and dont throw INTs is a viable strategy for winning. 

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21 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

As a reminder to everyone, this is the most highly correlated stat in all of football to winning*. So, imo, its the most important. 

*technically is ANY/A over opponent.

This is not perfect since it ignores QB fumbles lost, but it is a very good indicator.

This stat explains how someone can have 16 TDs 4 picks and go 1-10 on merit.

 

If your QB puts up an 8 or higher in this stat for a season, you pretty much win 12+ games.*

  • Except Culpepper 2004 who went 8-8
  • Foles and McCown 2013 did not play enough but they did go a combined 11-4 on teams that went 7-10 without them.

 

*there are 5 guys above 8 so far this year but I only expect Mahomes to stay there.

 

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4 hours ago, FinSting said:

Darts thrown at a wall. That's what they do. 

I remember Dak's first preseason, he happened to be playing the Fins. After zing-zing-zing laser-beam passes I was like "ok, this rookie is not normal." Even in a preseason game, he stood out. Confident, accurate. And look at him now a few years later. 

True. All of their employees in Cincinnati just sit at their desk for the last decade essentially doing nothing. It's a conspiracy I tell you. :) 

Edited by PapaShogun
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