Quarterback Rankings (final regular season 2019)

[Soggust]

16 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

I think PFF rankings are a joke, but I can understand their point intellectually.

• First of all, you point out that some QBs above him have some flaws as well, but what about the cumulation of all the points?
• Secondly, you are ignoring the grades. They show you that the point differential from Mahomes being #6 and #3 is <5. So most of these guys are ballpark graded about the same after 3 games.
• 3rd, PFF does knock other players for having easy assignments. 

1) That's fair, but I admittedly don't have PFF, so I'm not able to see the details. I do know that they value open throws less than contested dimes so Mahomes is inherently disadvantaged since his best attribute is arguably his vision and ability to get it to the open man. 

2) Probably same situation where having a subscription would help me understand, but sometimes in-depth analysis like this can miss the forest from the trees. If someone were to make the argument that Dak is having as good as or even better year than Mahomes, I would disagree, but I also wouldn't really lose sleep over it. He's played well, no doubt, and although I disagree I probably wouldn't even bother to debate it. But he has a 90.4 grade on PFF and Mahomes has a 81.9 grade. Has Dak really been 9% better than Mahomes? I think that's a much harder case to make and again gives me pause to put stock in their rankings.

3) Legit question - is 'Easy Assignments' the same as Strength of Schedule? Looking at their metrics (link - I could just be easily missing it), I don't see anything implicitly stated about strength of schedule, but again 'easy assignments' would indicate that an open throw is easier than a contested dime, which is not only unfair to Mahomes, but disingenuous to reality. You should want your QB hitting the open man, I would think.

 

Again though, it's week 3 and these things tend to average out, but currently their rankings are a joke, imo.

Edited September 25, 2019 by Soggust

[TecmoSuperJoe]

17 minutes ago, Soggust said:

1) That's fair, but I admittedly don't have PFF, so I'm not able to see the details. I do know that they value open throws less than contested dimes so Mahomes is inherently disadvantaged since his best attribute is arguably his vision and ability to get it to the open man. 

2) Probably same situation where having a subscription would help me understand, but sometimes in-depth analysis like this can miss the forest from the trees. If someone were to make the argument that Dak is having as good as or even better year than Mahomes, I would disagree, but I also wouldn't really lose sleep over it. He's played well, no doubt, and although I disagree I probably wouldn't even bother to debate it. But he has a 90.4 grade on PFF and Mahomes has a 81.9 grade. Has Dak really been 9% better than Mahomes? I think that's a much harder case to make and again gives me pause to put stock in their rankings.

3) Legit question - is 'Easy Assignments' the same as Strength of Schedule? Looking at their metrics (link - I could just be easily missing it), I don't see anything implicitly stated about strength of schedule, but again 'easy assignments' would indicate that an open throw is easier than a contested dime, which is not only unfair to Mahomes, but disingenuous to reality. You should want your QB hitting the open man, I would think.

 

Again though, it's week 3 and these things tend to average out, but currently their rankings are a joke, imo.

Mahomes might be docked a little for getting YAC from players, or getting production on some screen throws that go the distance. I know that's why they're whatever on Brissett thus far. He's gotten a ton of his yards through YAC. Their week 3 podcast is out. Can't remember what they said about Mahomes during the Chiefs/Ravens segment, but you might want to take a listen. Starts at the 36:43 mark.

 

Edited September 25, 2019 by PapaShogun

[minutemancl]

PFF aggregate scores are little more than arbitrary. I remember seeing week 1 Even Engram had a 67.6 pass blocking grade... on 1 pass blocking snap. How do you grade a singular snap a 67.6? What's the difference between a 67.6 and 67.7? Daniel Jones apparently was only accurate on 40% of his throws on Sunday, according to their power rankings post. How do you go 23/36 and are accurate on 40%? 14.4 of his throws were accurate, so 6 tenths of one throw was inaccurate? His receivers caught 9 inaccurate passes? It's just silly.

[TecmoSuperJoe]

4 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

PFF aggregate scores are little more than arbitrary. I remember seeing week 1 Even Engram had a 67.6 pass blocking grade... on 1 pass blocking snap. How do you grade a singular snap a 67.6? What's the difference between a 67.6 and 67.7? Daniel Jones apparently was only accurate on 40% of his throws on Sunday, according to their power rankings post. How do you go 23/36 and are accurate on 40%? 14.4 of his throws were accurate, so 6 tenths of one throw was inaccurate? His receivers caught 9 inaccurate passes? It's just silly.

I believe they grade how the results are achieved, not just the end results. So if a pass is deflected, and then still caught by a receiver, that doesn't bode well for the QB. So just going by the basic stat of 25/30 for example isn't how they grade. Jones may have had those amount of passes completed, but they are grading the accuracy of the passes thrown (behind the receiver, low, too high, etc)

[Soggust]

25 minutes ago, PapaShogun said:

Mahomes might be docked a little for getting YAC from players, or getting production on some screen throws that go the distance. I know that's why they're whatever on Brissett thus far. He's gotten a ton of his yards through YAC.

That seems plausible, but it's hard to say without going back and calculating the % of YAC and doing the same for the other top 5. I wish there was an easier way to calculate this.

I will say, NFL Next Gen Stats - LINK - has him:

Out of 37 qualified QBs (min 15 pass attempts):

14th in Completed Air Yards
13th in Intended Air Yards

So, pretty middle of the pack.

(Brissett 33rd / 36th respectively fwiw)

In fact, only 1 of Mahomes' 10 TDs has been a screen this year.

Furthermore, he's had a screen, a slant, and a zig for his only short TDs on the year ( the slant was actually 68 yards, but only 8 yards in air ). The rest of his TDs have been on passes over 15 yards in the air. 

The narrative that he's just a screen machine is so unfair (not saying you are arguing this, just that it's a common talking point).

 

[fortdetroit]

14 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Passer rating has a stronger correlation to winning than a lot of other stats though, simple because it rewards efficient QBs. Complete a lot of passes and dont throw INTs is a viable strategy for winning. 

Sure, but passer rating is more of a reflection of the passing game a whole (pass blocking, catching, passing, receiver yards after catch, type of offense run, etc), rather than just the individual value the QB is bringing. 

[Danger]

4 hours ago, kingseanjohn said:

I'll just leave this here, again...

 

Nah, but it's easier to make throws to more open receivers. Meaning that scheme and WR coaching has a LOT to do with it. No one is diminishing what Mahomes has done and he's the trail blazer for the next big leap in passing into the generation moving forward. But he's not always the best at everything all the time.

Edited September 25, 2019 by Danger

[Danger]

PFF seems to at least notice where as many of that compilated stats, that the Eagles team is literally screwing Carson aside from 1-2 throws a game. (the 2nd pick in the Falcons game, and a missed wide-open would-be touchdown to Goedert last week). He ain't perfect but his stats are being brought down drastically by what's around him right now.

[Matts4313]

1 hour ago, Soggust said:

Legit question - is 'Easy Assignments' the same as Strength of Schedule? Looking at their metrics (link - I could just be easily missing it), I don't see anything implicitly stated about strength of schedule, but again 'easy assignments' would indicate that an open throw is easier than a contested dime, which is not only unfair to Mahomes, but disingenuous to reality. You should want your QB hitting the open man, I would think.

All I know is last year they ranked Zeke the 35th (?) best running back. Their excuse was 6 fumbles and that our run blocking was good. They said that Zeke didnt do much beside run through the open hole.

[Calamity_Cometh]

Numbers and results. Stats and wins. Mahomes seems to have wide open receivers and he seems to find them more often than not. This is where context breaks down because at this point, it doesn't matter whom is better. It matters who is winning. Difficulty of pass means nothing. Who scored the most points?

[Matts4313]

8 minutes ago, Danger said:

PFF seems to at least notice where as many of that compilated stats, that the Eagles team is literally screwing Carson aside from 1-2 throws a game. (the 2nd pick in the Falcons game, and a missed wide-open would-be touchdown to Goedert last week). He ain't perfect but his stats are being brought down drastically by what's around him right now.

THE TOTAL IRONY

[Soggust]

8 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

All I know is last year they ranked Zeke the 35th (?) best running back. Their excuse was 6 fumbles and that our run blocking was good. They said that Zeke didnt do much beside run through the open hole.

I'll take Zeke and him running through open holes vs most RBs in the league (much less 34 others). If I have to eat 6 fumbles (on over 300 carries), so be it. 

Edited September 25, 2019 by Soggust

[Danger]

2 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

THE TOTAL IRONY

Apples to Oranges

Carson is making the throws consistently, but lets put this in perspective. Against the lions alone, the team dropped 8 passes and had 3 fumbles. 3 Deep passes, and multiple would be touchdowns. Not to mention the sheer amount of injuries this team has had.

When Dak sucked, YES Dak's supporting cast was butt. HOWEVER, he wasn't making the throws most of the time. It's not the same case. Use your eyes fam. That's not to detract from what Dak is doing right now.

 

P.S.

Dak sucks

[Bearerofnews]

1 hour ago, Soggust said:

"There is no knock for throwing to open targets"

**makes an entire argument about throwing to open targets**

-----------------------------------------------------------

This is Andy Reid's offensive career:

 

Impressive, no doubt! But if it was really just the system and guys were running free all day long, why was last year his first with a #1 offense? Why did he have 'down' years in 2013-2016 with Alex Smith (who was known for good decision making and check downs / screens)? If 5000 yards and 50 TDs is so unimpressive and expected given the system, where are all the other 50 TD or 5000 yard Andy Reid QBs? 

Reid is definitely a wonderful offensive mind, but to suggest its all Andy and Mahomes isn't a special talent is obvious hating. But you were also the guy saying Mayfield was a better young QB over the offseason and the Dolphins were a playoff team this year, so given your predictions - if you would please keep hating on Mahomes, the Chiefs would really appreciate it. 

Mcnabb, Colb, Vick and Alex Smith arent top 10 qb caliber players.. maybe fringe top 12 with Mcnabb who he did have top 4 offense with his best receiver being Pinkston. He had a top 2 offense with Vick. 

Mahomes is clearly top 10.  But if you are gonna really act like being in that system, which has completely evolved recrntly in play design does not contribute to alot of easy stats, you are being disingenuous. I get KC fans havent had a great qb in like 40 years (unless ya count Montana at the end or Trent Green as great) so ya are extra defensive. But its really not just KC fans. Its everyone. Put on any network and Mahomes is a god, go to any qb thread on here and fans from every team, Mahomes is a god.

Mahomes has fans of the most dominant NFL dynasty ever, fanboying the Chiefs because of Mahomes. NE fans literally on here sound like KC fans because they are all in. Almost like NE fans, with their team looking the most dominant it has ever looked 3 games in, seem to be more in on KC than their own team, because of Mahomes.

Admiration for a young promising talent, once again turns into hyperbolic over-exaggerated hysteria because of face value stats.  Stats that are heavily influenced due to system. This happens every couple of years. In 2 or 3 years the new flavor will be Tua or Trevor or one of the other many young qbs who will be entering the league.

I hear morons like Trey Wingo geeking out over screen passes or a fake handoff last week in a playaction fake where Mahomes puts the ball by his knee. Like come on, is that really impressive.

My predictions first off, are meant to be bold. I missed the mark on Dolphins. I knew a AFCE team would surprise, i just picked the wrong one. As for Baker, its 3 weeks in. 

I'm someone who values situational success. For example, the mods on this page are great and do an amazing job. But alot of that has to do with football future being the gold standard IMO for sports message boards. It has great structure, stability and consistent rules that all posters are aware of. So the mods jobs here is easy. How would the mods look on a unstructured, chaotic and messy board that doesnt have the leadership it does here. The point im making is what Baker did in Cleveland as a true rookie to me was more telling than what Mahomes did in KC.

There is a reason KCs skill players, alot of them share the same key physical trait.... speeeeed. It goes with the misdirections and the offset route concepts that system utilizes.

[Matts4313]

1 minute ago, Danger said:

Apples to Oranges

Carson is making the throws consistently, but lets put this in perspective. Against the lions alone, the team dropped 8 passes and had 3 fumbles. 3 Deep passes, and multiple would be touchdowns. Not to mention the sheer amount of injuries this team has had.

When Dak sucked, YES Dak's supporting cast was butt. HOWEVER, he wasn't making the throws most of the time. It's not the same case. Use your eyes fam. That's not to detract from what Dak is doing right now.

 

P.S.

Dak sucks

"Carson isnt elevating his teammates" 

Isnt that the knock on Dak? He wasnt elevating Allen Hurns and Geoff Swaim? But Carson has Agholar and Ertz. And the "deepest most talented team in the NFL". Why isnt he elevating them?

 

PS: Maybe Wentz's WRs wouldnt have alligator arms if he would quit leading them directly into harms way.