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NFL Week 4 picks


Bolts223

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Thursday Night Football: Eagles @ Packers

I think the Packers might be the class of the NFC. I think it's close between them & the Rams, but I prefer Rodgers to Goff. Packers defense has balled out this year. 

While it's insanely hard to think the Eagles start 1-3, the Packers have impressed me too much to pick against them at home on TNF.

Prediction: Packers: 27, Eagles: 20

 

Titans @ Falcons:

Both teams are underwhelming so far. I'll pick the Falcons at home to win a sorta messy game.

Prediction: Falcons: 19, Titans: 16

 

Browns @ Ravens: Despite them losing last week last week is what made me both a believer in Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. This team is the real deal. I think the Browns defense does well but the offense still doesn't do enough.

Prediction: Ravens: 23, Browns: 13

 

Patriots @ Bills: I think the Bills actually do have a real shot in this game. Patriots O-line has issues and Pats WR core took a hit with no more Brown and Edelman injured. While I don't think Buffalo winning is out of the realm of possibility, I'm not crazy enough to pick against the Pats in a somewhat important divisional matchup like this.

Prediction: Patriots: 21, Bills: 13

 

Chiefs @ Lions: I also think this game could be low-key close. Lions are a very competent team and I think Patricia is proving his doubters wrong. I do think Patricia comes up with a great gameplan for this Chiefs offense, but sometimes Mahomes insane athletic ability can still ruin the greatest of gameplans.

Prediction: Chiefs: 30, Lions: 23

 

Panthers @ Texans: Just when I had written the Panthers off they came out and won pretty handily against AZ. They still have to show me more to earn my trust back.

Prediction: Texans: 31, Panthers: 24

 

Raiders @ Colts: Colts are low-key still good this year. Makes you wonder how good they could've been if Luck didn't retire. I don't think the Raiders are as bad a team as we thought they were going to be before the season, but they still aren't good.

Prediction: Colts: 24, Raiders: 14

 

Chargers @ Dolphins: As a Chargers fan this game worries me for many reasons. 1) Chargers haven't won in Miami since 1982. 2) Chargers love to play down to opponents. 3) Injuries. 4) Chargers in general suck in September. However, this Dolphins team is just too terrible for me to pick against the Chargers. This Dolphins team is different from even some of the worst teams in history in that they have zero heart and don't even care. The Chargers at this point are probably desperate and know they need to win. Even though I am extremely nervous about this game, I have to think the Chargers roll over this joke of a team.

Prediction: Chargers: 34, Dolphins: 13

 

Redskins @ Giants: The Daniel Jones era is off to a great start. I'm still not a believer in the Giants at all, but I'm even less of a believer in the Skins right now.

Prediction: Giants: 30, Redskins: 21

 

Seahawks @ Cardinals: Seahawks looked bad last week against a Breesless Saints team. I think they come back with a vengeance this week and take care of business.

Prediction: Seahawks: 28, Cardinals: 20

 

Buccaneers @ Rams: Heartbreaking loss for the Bucs last week. I think Arians is the guy who will eventually turn this franchise around, but I don't think he can coach up a team to win a game like this against an opponent who is just clearly better and more talented.

Prediction: Rams: 30, Bucs: 13

 

Vikings @ Bears: Tough game to pick. I'm not a huge believer in Trubisky or Nagy for that matter, but I think the Bears defense chews up and spits out Kirk and the Vikings o-line.

Prediction: Bears: 20, Vikings: 10

 

Jaguars @ Broncos: I find it unbelievable that a team with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb is yet to get a sack. This has to change this week right?

Prediction: Broncos: 21, Jaguars: 17

 

 Sunday Night Football: Cowboys @ Saints: Saints won fairly easily last week but I'm still not willing to pick them to beat another quality opponent without Brees.

Prediction: Cowboys: 24, Saints: 21

 

Monday Night football: Bengals @ Steelers: The real question is who cares? 

Prediction: Steelers: 20, Bengals: 16

 

 

Edited by Bolts223
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Eagles vs Packers 

The Eagles have injury concerns and can't rush the passer nor cover on the backend. Green Bay has a stout defense and plays at home. 24-17 GB.

Titans vs Falcons

The Titans have no offense. The Falcons are not impressive but they win a close one at home. 24-20 ATL

Browns vs Ravens

The Browns have OL issues and Baker is not the same guy he was last year. Baltimore rolls. 31-20 BAL

Patriots vs Bills

Two very good defenses will take part in this game. Ultimately the NE offense will do enough while the defense dominates Josh Allen and company. NE 24-7

Chiefs vs Lions

The Lions are improved and Stafford will put up points. The concern is that K. Johnson has disappointed so far. They will not be able to keep up with the Chiefs offense. 35-24 KC

Panthers vs Texans 

Kyle Allen will come back down to earth and while BOB is not a good head coach I can't go against Deshaun Watson the way he is playing. Texans blow out Panthers. 31-17 HOU

Raiders vs Colts

The Raiders have still a swiss cheese defense and this will be on full display against a Colts offense that will dominate the LOS. JB will do enough while Mack goes for 125 yards. IND 28-20

Chargers vs Dolphins

The Dolphins will lose, they suck. But they are slowly improving. Their offense will show some signs of life and their defense makes a couple of stops. The Chargers OL struggles will be on display. 30-17 LAC

Redskins vs Giants

Both teams are terrible defensively so this should be a high scoring game. The difference is that Case Keenum is just too turnover prone. Daniel Jones continues to make headlines. 37-31 NYG.

Seahawks vs Cardinals

The Cardinals looked bad on both sides of the ball against the Panthers. The Seahawks had an off game against the Saints but the game was closer than the score. Wilson should throw all over the Cardinals secondary. 27-17 SEA

Buccaneers vs Rams

what can be said? Expect a lower scoring game. The Bucs defense is surprisingly competent and the Rams have a top 5 defense as of right now. Both offenses were very good last year but they took a step back. Ultimately Winston will make 1-2 too many boneheaded mistakes in a otherwise surprisingly close contest. 23-17 LAR

Vikings vs Bears

Trubisky or Cousins? The defenses are great but who do you trust more? I don't feel good about either of them but Cousins is capable of good stretches. Cook has a good day on the ground and the Vikings pull a slight upset. 21-17 MIN

Jaguars vs Broncos

The Jaguars seemed to have found new life even with the distractions of a Ramsey trade. The Broncos look done already. Flacco isn't the guy and the defense is surprisingly incompetent. 20-13 JAX

Cowboys vs Saints

I expect a high scoring game. The Dallas defense does not convince me. The DL looks weak and the linebackers seem to have taken a step back. Neither does the Saints defense against this Dallas offense. I think the dome makes a difference, Kamara kills the Cowboys and Bridgewater gets the ball to the playmakers. 30-27 NO.

Bengals vs Steelers

Bad vs bad. The Steelers defense probably makes 1-2 more plays though. 17-14 PIT

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11 hours ago, Bolts223 said:

Chargers @ Dolphins: As a Chargers fan this game worries me for many reasons. 1) Chargers haven't won in Miami since 1982. 2) Chargers love to play down to opponents. 3) Injuries. 4) Chargers in general suck in September. However, this Dolphins team is just too terrible for me to pick against the Chargers. This Dolphins team is different from even some of the worst teams in history in that they have zero heart and don't even care. The Chargers at this point are probably desperate and know they need to win. Even though I am extremely nervous about this game, I have to think the Chargers roll over this joke of a team.

Prediction: Chargers: 34, Dolphins: 13

That's a lazy statement considering they've improved every week. The fact that they're getting OL off the street and them giving Rosen enough time to scan the field speaks levels to what kind of coaching they're getting. The defense has allowed 23 points in the first half against two of the best offenses in the NFL in back-to-back weeks. Take away a forced fumble within the 5 and a dropped TD and Miami is up 20-10 in Dallas at the half.

The second-half adjustments have been troubling though. 

Edited by Ajayii
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9 hours ago, Ajayii said:

That's a lazy statement considering they've improved every week. The fact that they're getting OL off the street and them giving Rosen enough time to scan the field speaks levels to what kind of coaching they're getting. The defense has allowed 23 points in the first half against two of the best offenses in the NFL in back-to-back weeks. Take away a forced fumble within the 5 and a dropped TD and Miami is up 20-10 in Dallas at the half.

The second-half adjustments have been troubling though. 

I mean you are technically right in that they went from losing by 49 to 43 to 25.

But that's probably more just regression to the mean than actual improvement. At least they had Minkah Fitzpatrick to start the season. Now they don't.

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15 hours ago, Bolts223 said:

I mean you are technically right in that they went from losing by 49 to 43 to 25.

But that's probably more just regression to the mean than actual improvement. At least they had Minkah Fitzpatrick to start the season. Now they don't.

Regression to the mean seems likely but I'd also say there's improvement. The Baltimore game was ugly and I think has skewed people's view on Miami by just looking at the box score. That NE game was closer than the score would indicate insanely enough. Just like the Dallas game, if the receivers hold onto the ball that NE game is 33-17. Miami can't make mistakes since they don't have the DL or OL to battle consistently but they keep doing it. 

Minkah gave up 2 TD's and whiffed on tackles that lead to scores to start the season as well. 

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