Dolphins Fans, how do you feel about tanking for Tua?

[JohnCena]

So it's apparent that the Dolphins are Tanking for Tua. Losing games on purpose and trading away their best talent for more high draft picks. This is probably the first time we have seen a team in the NFL go full on NBA mode trust the process and just lose games on purpose to get that number 1 pick. It's been highly controversial but many feel after years of mediocrity the Dolphins are justified in going this route. Obviously as a player you'd hate it, playing for a team that doesn't even want to win.

 

My question is to all you Dolphins Fans out there - How do you feel about all this? 

[TheKillerNacho]

Honestly I'm going to quote myself from another topic because it sums up my thoughts about the tank so well:

On 9/9/2019 at 3:58 PM, TheKillerNacho said:

Honestly it depends on the context.

We were a talentless void before this season - it was an aging, expensive (we had virtually no cap room) roster with no real star power whatsoever. The Dolphins didn't let anyone of value in a long-term rebuild go except Laremy Tunsil and that's because the value was there - Houston simply overpaid by a large margin that it would've been stupid not to trade him. Meanwhile, most of the players leaving last offseason and this one were old, bad, and/or way too expensive. Most didn't really make us that much better in the short-term while putting us in cap and draft hell.

Nothing could've prevented us from being bad this season. We could've tried to retain the talent we had but even in ideal circumstances we were looking at a 6-10 year, realistically.

So the Dolphins had a choice. Try only to put together another bad season anyway or fix our cap situation while accumulating draft assets. They chose the latter.

 

A common misconception here seems to be the Dolphins are trying to tank for one player. That couldn't be further from the truth - the Dolphins have 22 picks to work with (including multiple 1sts and 2nds) over the next two seasons and have relieved itself from the cap hell it was in so it could afford to shore up the roster in free agency, too. Perhaps it won't lead to longterm success, but I'd roll the dice on a full rebuild than stick with a 6-10 squad with no cap room or draft picks anyday - even if that means we lose five-six more games than we would've otherwise.

[TheKillerNacho]

I should also point out that many Dolfans are mixed about Tua specifically. Some want to stick with Rosen while others want to wait another season to draft Trevor Lawrence.

[TheKillerNacho]

As for how I personally feel about it, I'm kinda numb to it. Hated it at first. But honestly, I think we needed to do something as we weren't really going anywhere going down the path we were on previously. 

Only real choice as a fan is to just embrace it.

[Tetsujin]

It's necessary. Sure Brady is going to retire sometime, but there's now the KC behemoth, and several rising teams in the AFC that the NFC lacks. 

[hrubes20]

I'm fully embracing the "scorched earth" rebuild plan.  I'm a diehard Cubs fan and I watched how a full rebuild brought the first WS in 108 years.  Different sports, yes, but it's not like this method hasn't been successful before in football (Cowboys in the early '90's).  If nothing else it just shows that there is some defined plan for the future, which Miami hasn't had in literally decades.  As TKN said, they aren't tanking for Tua.  They are starting from scratch and will pick the best players available.  If Tua happens to be the best in their analysis, so be it. 

As for Tua himself, I personally would build the rest of the team up this offseason and let Rosen start all of 2020.  If he has it, great.  If he doesn't, then the team is still set up terrifically to take the best QB in 2021.  But it really would be hard to criticize the pick if they do decide to take Tua.  He's a really, really good QB.  

[TheKillerNacho]

21 minutes ago, hrubes20 said:

I'm fully embracing the "scorched earth" rebuild plan.  I'm a diehard Cubs fan and I watched how a full rebuild brought the first WS in 108 years.  Different sports, yes, but it's not like this method hasn't been successful before in football (Cowboys in the early '90's).  If nothing else it just shows that there is some defined plan for the future, which Miami hasn't had in literally decades.  As TKN said, they aren't tanking for Tua.  They are starting from scratch and will pick the best players available.  If Tua happens to be the best in their analysis, so be it. 

As for Tua himself, I personally would build the rest of the team up this offseason and let Rosen start all of 2020.  If he has it, great.  If he doesn't, then the team is still set up terrifically to take the best QB in 2021.  But it really would be hard to criticize the pick if they do decide to take Tua.  He's a really, really good QB.  

What if, however, Rosen is merely satisfactory, leading us to an uninspiring 6-10 campaign, leaving us out of range to grab Trevor Lawrence? I'm not completely sold on Justin Fields yet (at least to the point of preferring him over Tua), so Lawrence may be the only franchise QB in the class. Sure, Miami may be able to trade up with its draft assets, but if the team with 1st overall also needs a QB, they wouldn't trade it for the world. The problem with waiting for 2021 is this: we need to be able to land 1st overall in that season (or at least 2nd overall if Fields develops into a safe prospect).

The Dolphins have to be thinking this. It's hard to be this abysmal two years in a row. Really, really hard. We'll presumably be in a position to grab Tua this year. I think the only way that doesn't happen is if he returns to school. Obviously between the two I'd much rather have Lawrence. But if Rosen doesn't show significant improvement this season, it will be hard to pass up Tua for the hope that we can land Lawrence.

[hrubes20]

4 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

What if, however, Rosen is merely satisfactory, leading us to a 6-10 campaign, leaving us out of range to grab Trevor Lawrence? I'm not sold on Justin Fields yet, so Lawrence may be the only franchise QB in the class. Sure, Miami may be able to trade up with its draft assets, but if the team with 1st overall also needs a QB, they wouldn't trade it for the world.

The Dolphins have to be thinking this. It's hard to be this abysmal two years in a row. Really, really hard. We'll presumably be in a position to grab Tua this year. I think the only way that doesn't happen is if he returns to school. 

Then it's up to the braintrust to determine whether Rosen is good enough to win with an even better team around him, or to pick the best non-Lawrence QB in the draft (and to consequently be able to identify the 2nd best one).  History shows that the majority of drafts have multiple QBs that turn out to be legit NFL starters.  

But again, that's just what I would do.  I fully expect Tua to be the pick.  

[TheKillerNacho]

1 minute ago, hrubes20 said:

Then it's up to the braintrust to determine whether Rosen is good enough to win with an even better team around him, or to pick the best non-Lawrence QB in the draft (and to consequently be able to identify the 2nd best one).  History shows that the majority of drafts have multiple QBs that turn out to be legit NFL starters.  

But again, that's just what I would do.  I fully expect Tua to be the pick.  

Does it though?

Certainly, most draft classes have multiple QBs that end up being 1st-round picks but how many turn into legitimate NFL starters?

Let's take all 1st-round QBs since the turn of the century: (Not including 2019 and 2018 because it's way too soon to tell)

2017: Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson
2016: Goff, Wentz, Lynch
2015: Winston, Mariota
2014: Manziel, Bridgewater
2013: Manuel
2012: Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden
2011: Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder
2010: Bradford, Tebow
2009: Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman
2008: Ryan, Flacco
2007: Russell, Quinn
2006: Young, Leinert, Cutler
2005: Smith, Rodgers, Campbell
2004: E. Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Losman
2003: Palmer, Leftwich, Boller, Grossman
2002: Carr, Harrington, Ramsey
2001: Vick
2000: Pennington

I was being generous with which I considered "hits", but accepting this, the hit rate per season is 0.94 per season (slightly less that one).

Even more telling: the only time the 1st QB selected busted with the QBs slected after them hitting was in 2017 (not surprising since quite a few people had Trubisky behind Watson and Mahomes in that draft but the Bears are idiots).

The 1st QB selected has a hit rate of 55.55%. That chance drops to 33.33% for the 2nd QB selected. For QBs beyond the 2nd, it drops further to just 14.29%.

 

No matter how you slice it, most drafts simply don't have multiple 1st-round QBs who end up succeeding... the vast majority of franchise QBs are selected as the 1st QB selected or were not selected in the 1st round. History actually suggests if you can't grab the best guy in the class, your odds of finding your franchise QB drops considerably.

[hrubes20]

7 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Does it though?

Certainly, most draft classes have multiple QBs that end up being 1st-round picks but how many turn into legitimate NFL starters?

Let's take all 1st-round QBs since the turn of the century: (Not including 2019 and 2018 because it's way too soon to tell)

2017: Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson
2016: Goff, Wentz, Lynch
2015: Winston, Mariota
2014: Manziel, Bridgewater
2013: Manuel
2012: Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden
2011: Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder
2010: Bradford, Tebow
2009: Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman
2008: Ryan, Flacco
2007: Russell, Quinn
2006: Young, Leinert, Cutler
2005: Smith, Rodgers, Campbell
2004: E. Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Losman
2003: Palmer, Leftwich, Boller, Grossman
2002: Carr, Harrington, Ramsey
2001: Vick
2000: Pennington

I was being generous with which I considered "hits", but accepting this, the hit rate per season is 0.94 per season (slightly less that one).

Even more telling: the only time the 1st QB selected busted with the QBs slected after them hitting was in 2017 (not surprising since quite a few people had Trubisky behind Watson and Mahomes in that draft but the Bears are idiots).

The 1st QB selected has a hit rate of 55.55%. That chance drops to 33.33% for the 2nd QB selected. For QBs beyond the 2nd, it drops further to just 14.29%.

 

No matter how you slice it, most drafts simply don't have multiple 1st-round QBs who end up succeeding... the vast majority of franchise QBs are selected as the 1st QB selected or were not selected in the 1st round. History actually suggests if you can't grab the best guy in the class, your odds of finding your franchise QB drops considerably.

Ah, but I never said "History shows us that most drafts have multiple 1st round QBs that turn out to be liegit NFL starters", I said "History shows that the majority of drafts have multiple QBs that turn out to be legit NFL starters."   

I'm not going to go through the years like you did, but I'm fairly certain this is pretty accurate.  That's why I said it is paramount that the FO be able to identify the 2nd best one in the draft (assuming they come to the conclusion that Rosen can't win with a better team around him).  That doesn't mean that the 2nd best one has to be taken in the 1st round.  

 

[TheKillerNacho]

1 minute ago, hrubes20 said:

Ah, but I never said "History shows us that most drafts have multiple 1st round QBs that turn out to be liegit NFL starters", I said "History shows that the majority of drafts have multiple QBs that turn out to be legit NFL starters."   

I'm not going to go through the years like you did, but I'm fairly certain this is pretty accurate.  That's why I said it is paramount that the FO be able to identify the 2nd best one in the draft (assuming they come to the conclusion that Rosen can't win with a better team around him).  That doesn't mean that the 2nd best one has to be taken in the 1st round.  

 

While this is true, we're talking about drafting a QB early. There's usually a QB who ends up being a starter for the latter rounds as well in most seasons but with the number of late round QBs selected, the hit rate in those rounds are going to be around 5 percent - basically a crap shoot. If you're looking for a franchise QB and plan to spend a single pick during the draft to find him, your overwhelming odds of finding him is the first one.

[TheKillerNacho]

1 hour ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Does it though?

Certainly, most draft classes have multiple QBs that end up being 1st-round picks but how many turn into legitimate NFL starters?

Let's take all 1st-round QBs since the turn of the century: (Not including 2019 and 2018 because it's way too soon to tell)

2017: Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson
2016: Goff, Wentz, Lynch
2015: Winston, Mariota
2014: Manziel, Bridgewater
2013: Manuel
2012: Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden
2011: Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder
2010: Bradford, Tebow
2009: Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman
2008: Ryan, Flacco
2007: Russell, Quinn
2006: Young, Leinert, Cutler
2005: Smith, Rodgers, Campbell
2004: E. Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Losman
2003: Palmer, Leftwich, Boller, Grossman
2002: Carr, Harrington, Ramsey
2001: Vick
2000: Pennington

I was being generous with which I considered "hits", but accepting this, the hit rate per season is 0.94 per season (slightly less that one).

Even more telling: the only time the 1st QB selected busted with the QBs slected after them hitting was in 2017 (not surprising since quite a few people had Trubisky behind Watson and Mahomes in that draft but the Bears are idiots).

The 1st QB selected has a hit rate of 55.55%. That chance drops to 33.33% for the 2nd QB selected. For QBs beyond the 2nd, it drops further to just 14.29%.

 

No matter how you slice it, most drafts simply don't have multiple 1st-round QBs who end up succeeding... the vast majority of franchise QBs are selected as the 1st QB selected or were not selected in the 1st round. History actually suggests if you can't grab the best guy in the class, your odds of finding your franchise QB drops considerably.

 

1 hour ago, hrubes20 said:

Ah, but I never said "History shows us that most drafts have multiple 1st round QBs that turn out to be liegit NFL starters", I said "History shows that the majority of drafts have multiple QBs that turn out to be legit NFL starters."   

I'm not going to go through the years like you did, but I'm fairly certain this is pretty accurate.  That's why I said it is paramount that the FO be able to identify the 2nd best one in the draft (assuming they come to the conclusion that Rosen can't win with a better team around him).  That doesn't mean that the 2nd best one has to be taken in the 1st round.  

 

You know what... I'm curious myself, so let's not leave this thing unfinished. I'm going to be combining the 2nd and 3rd rounds and the rounds 4th and beyond.

2nd & 3rd Round:

2017: Kizer, Webb, Beathard
2016: Hackenberg, Brissett (he could certainly turn green but for now I'd say there's not enough to call him a franchise QB), Kessler
2015: Grayson, Mannion
2014: Carr, Garoppolo
2013: G. Smith, Glennon
2012: Osweiler, Wilson, Foles
2011: Pryor (supplemental), Dalton, Kaepernick, Mallett
2010: McCoy
2009: White
2008: Brohm, Henne, O'Connell
2007: Kolb, Beck, Stanton, Edwards
2006: Clemens, Jackson, Whitehurst, Croyle
2005: Frye, Walter, Greene
2004: Scaub
2003: Ragone, Simms
2002: J. McCown
2001: Brees, Carter, Tuiasosopo
2000: Carmazzi, Redman

4th-7th Round (I'm only going to name the hits by name, for sake of time. Let me know if I missed someone, I obviously did these kinda hastily):

2017: 4 misses
2016: Prescott, 8 misses
2015: 3 misses
2014: 9 misses
2013: 8 misses
2012: Cousins, 3 misses
2011: 5 misses
2010: 10 misses
2009: 7 misses
2008: 8 misses
2007: 5 misses
2006: 5 misses
2005: 8 misses
2004: 12 misses
2003: 7 misses
2002: Garrard, 11 misses
2001: 7 misses
2000: Brady, 8 misses

So with that all in mind, that does increase the number of franchise QBs drafted per season to 1.65 per draft! That's closer to 2 than 1, granted, but really we can conclude there's a second QB worth a damn in an average draft about half the time. It's worth noting that there's a couple drafts in particular that are inflating this number significantly. Namely 2012 and 2004, with four hits a piece. Removing these statistical oddities reduces the number of franchise QBs to draft to a mere 1.33 per draft, however. Either way, a second QB being worthwhile in a draft is not a sure thing.

And now for the ugly part... the success chance of these rounds.

In the 2nd and 3rd rounds, the percentage of hits is 15.91% (actually a bit higher than first round QBs beyond the first two selections, interestingly!) However the odds in rounds 4-7 are just 3.16%. Combined, however, that's just a success rate of 6.43% in rounds beyond the first.

 

But we're getting a bit off track. Combining all the hits together we see that about half the draft classes in this span produced at least two franchise QBs, with the remaining half supplying one or none. Regardless, however, the statistics show that if you want your franchise QB, the odds of finding him is overwhelminingly higher with the first QB selected, and drop exponentially for each one after that.

Ultimately I want the consensus best QB in a draft class. That means either Tua in 2020 or Lawrence in 2021.

[hrubes20]

1 hour ago, TheKillerNacho said:

 

You know what... I'm curious myself, so let's not leave this thing unfinished. I'm going to be combining the 2nd and 3rd rounds and the rounds 4th and beyond.

2nd & 3rd Round:

2017: Kizer, Webb, Beathard
2016: Hackenberg, Brissett (he could certainly turn green but for now I'd say there's not enough to call him a franchise QB), Kessler
2015: Grayson, Mannion
2014: Carr, Garoppolo
2013: G. Smith, Glennon
2012: Osweiler, Wilson, Foles
2011: Pryor (supplemental), Dalton, Kaepernick, Mallett
2010: McCoy
2009: White
2008: Brohm, Henne, O'Connell
2007: Kolb, Beck, Stanton, Edwards
2006: Clemens, Jackson, Whitehurst, Croyle
2005: Frye, Walter, Greene
2004: Scaub
2003: Ragone, Simms
2002: J. McCown
2001: Brees, Carter, Tuiasosopo
2000: Carmazzi, Redman

4th-7th Round (I'm only going to name the hits by name, for sake of time. Let me know if I missed someone, I obviously did these kinda hastily):

2017: 4 misses
2016: Prescott, 8 misses
2015: 3 misses
2014: 9 misses
2013: 8 misses
2012: Cousins, 3 misses
2011: 5 misses
2010: 10 misses
2009: 7 misses
2008: 8 misses
2007: 5 misses
2006: 5 misses
2005: 8 misses
2004: 12 misses
2003: 7 misses
2002: Garrard, 11 misses
2001: 7 misses
2000: Brady, 8 misses

So with that all in mind, that does increase the number of franchise QBs drafted per season to 1.65 per draft! That's closer to 2 than 1, granted, but really we can conclude there's a second QB worth a damn in an average draft about half the time. It's worth noting that there's a couple drafts in particular that are inflating this number significantly. Namely 2012 and 2004, with four hits a piece. Removing these statistical oddities reduces the number of franchise QBs to draft to a mere 1.33 per draft, however. Either way, a second QB being worthwhile in a draft is not a sure thing.

And now for the ugly part... the success chance of these rounds.

In the 2nd and 3rd rounds, the percentage of hits is 15.91% (actually a bit higher than first round QBs beyond the first two selections, interestingly!) However the odds in rounds 4-7 are just 3.16%. Combined, however, that's just a success rate of 6.43% in rounds beyond the first.

 

But we're getting a bit off track. Combining all the hits together we see that about half the draft classes in this span produced at least two franchise QBs, with the remaining half supplying one or none. Regardless, however, the statistics show that if you want your franchise QB, the odds of finding him is overwhelminingly higher with the first QB selected, and drop exponentially for each one after that.

Ultimately I want the consensus best QB in a draft class. That means either Tua in 2020 or Lawrence in 2021.

And there are years where there are zero good QBs, which skews it the other way.  12 QBs taken in 2006 and zero were worthwhile. 11 taken in 2007 and zero were worthwhile.  7 taken in 2015 and zero franchise QBs.   Some years are obviously better than others, but the average rounds up to 2 per year.  Thanks for doing the legwork.  

But I think we can both agree on the bolded bottom sentence.  Not that I have loads of confidence in this FO to make the right analysis, but I want them to have the absolute pick of the litter (according to them).  Let them have the chance to pick the guy they are enamored with.  

[TheKillerNacho]

3 minutes ago, hrubes20 said:

And there are years where there are zero good QBs, which skews it the other way.  12 QBs taken in 2006 and zero were worthwhile. 11 taken in 2007 and zero were worthwhile.  7 taken in 2015 and zero franchise QBs.   Some years are obviously better than others, but the average rounds up to 2 per year.  Thanks for doing the legwork.  

But I think we can both agree on the bolded bottom sentence.  Not that I have loads of confidence in this FO to make the right analysis, but I want them to have the absolute pick of the litter (according to them).  Let them have the chance to pick the guy they are enamored with.  

It's worth noting that if you take away two zero-QB years in addition to the four-QB years yuo still get 1.53. Which does round up to two but barely.

But yeah we seem to agree: Settling for second best just doesn't seem to be a good idea. I don't want to have any part taking a QB with a mid-1st or a mid rounder. Gotta do what we need to do to secure the best QB in the draft and take him for the best chance at success. And ultimately I'm worried if we pass up the best QB in the draft this year (Tua) we may not be in a position to draft the best QB in the next (Lawrence).

[Deadeye]

I'm in favor of it.  We've had dumb GMs due to having a dumb owner.  We might FINALLY have a real FO for a change.  Obviously it depends on how well the picks turn out, but there's no denying that they know how to get good value for our best players.  In Grier we trust.