BDL 2019 Week 4 - Anchorage Wolves @ Hungary Hippos

[SirA1]

BDL 2019 Week 4

Match:  Anchorage Wolves @ Hungary Hippos

Away Owner: @Counselor

Home Owner: @PR

Vote for who you think will win this game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

[SirA1]

Anchorage Wolves

Offense:

QB- Kirk Cousins

RB- Mark Ingram

WR- Tyler Boyd

WR- Cooper Kupp

TE- George Kittle

TE- Dawson Knox

LT- Terron Armstead

LG- Joe Thuney

C- Trey Hopkins

RG- Dalton Risner

RT- La’el Collins

 

RB- Tony Pollard

RB- Jamaal Williams

WR- Preston Williams

WR- Nelson Agholor

TE- Noah Fant

OT- Garett Bolles

OG- Mark Glowinski

C/OG- Garrett Bradbury

 

Defense:

LE- Cam Jordan

NT- Vita Vea

UT- Ed Oliver

RE- Trey Flowers

WLB- Jamie Collins

MLB- Joe Schobert

SLB- Jarrad Davis

CB- Chidobe Awuzie

CB-Bashaud Breeland

FS- Budda Baker

SS- Landon Collins

 

DE- Sam Hubbard

DT- Javon Hargrave

DE/DT- Rasheem Green

LB- Cole Holcomb

CB- De’Vante Bausby

CB- Trumaine Johnson

S- Jordan Whitehead

S/CB- Chauncey Gardner-Johnson

 

Hungary Hippos - 

QB - Jared Goff
RB - Leonard Fournette
WR - Larry Fitzgerald
WR - DK Metcalf
WR - Darius Slayton
TE - Greg Olsen
LT - Nate Solder
LG - Ali Marpet
C - Graham Glasglow
RG - Joe Dahl
RT - Jack Conklin

RB - Raheem Mostert
RB - Ito Smith
WR - Mohamed Sanu
WR - Andy Isabella
TE - TJ Hockenson
TE - Jack Doyle
OL - Josh Kline
OL - Kelechi Osemele

Defense:
DE - Brandon Graham
DT - Jonathan Allen
DT - A'Shawn Robinson
DE - Mario Addison
LB - Dre Greenlaw
LB - Luke Kuechly
LB - Raekwon McMillan
CB - Aqib Talib
FS - Harrison Smith
SS - Patrick Chung
CB - Rashaan Melvin

DE - Cameron Wake
DE - Terell Suggs
Int - Danny Shelton
Int - Tyeler Davison
LB - Kyzir White
CB - Jonathan Joseph
CB - Dre Kirkpatrick
S - Jabrill Peppers

Edited September 29, 2019 by SirA1

[SirA1]

Anchorage Wolves

We are coming off a tough loss to Singapore. We look to avenge our first loss of the season with a victory against the Hippos. We believe we matchup favorably against the Hippos and can regain our form going forward. Captain Kirk is back and ready to lead Anchorage to the playoffs. 

Offensive Formations: 

Our base offense this week will be the 2TE set once again. We will now call it Special K as Dawson Knox joins George Kittle and gets the start this week after running over several Bengals in the run game and receiving game last week. We definitely liked what we saw from the rookie. Out of this formation we have the flexibility to flex out both tight ends like slot receivers, or one tight end and keep one inline, or run the traditional inline two tight set. We will utilize the formation shift that gives us the best advantage on any given play. They like to run 3 LBers against the Double Tight, so we will flex Kittle out often to get a matchup on a Safety or LBer. We also once again feature our three wide (Tyler Boyd, Preston Williams outside and Cooper Kupp in the slot), one tight (George Kittle), one back set. Noah Fant will be our third TE and Nelson Agholor our fourth WR. Our RB rotation will be different this week as we took some flack for over using Mark Ingram. With what Tony Pollard showed last week we will increase his workload. Our RB usage percentage will be Mark Ingram (60%), Tony Pollard (30%) and Jamaal Williams (10%). We once again want to use simple formations with a lot of motions to change around these basic formations. This allows us several looks with the same personnel. 

Offensive Philosophy Passing Game (Special K):

We are really going to attack the Hippo defense at all levels this week. Our starting five olinemen have not allowed a single sack this season, and while the Hippo defense is very good we believe we match up against their pass rush very well, and can get more weapons out into the second and third levels of their coverages, including the RB, providing us a quick outlet to beat the rush or blitz. We will combo route with our TE’s and WR and create multi levels of attack. We will stretch seams on some plays with our TE’s and have our Receivers run slants, drags, curls, and those more intermediate to mid level routes. On others we will run the TE’s on intermediate routes and send our Wideouts on deeper pass patterns. One wrinkle we will also be playing with this week is layering the passing routes from sideline to sideline and not just depth of field. So what I mean by this is we will have the WR on the left side run a deeper route, the TE to his side run a shorter depth route, the opposite TE on the right side of the formation stretch the seam with a deeper route and the Wideout on the right side run a shorter route. So we will have one deep route on the outside, and one deep route in the middle of the field. With one shorter route on the inside, and one shorter route on the opposite outside of the field. We will switch this up throughout the game to test their coverages whether they play man or zone. We believe our receivers match up well against their corners. Joseph has been targeted second most in the league and given up fittingly the second most receptions at 20 already in three games. Talib has been off his usual game as well. These combo routes will be run out of two tight inline, one tight split out, and two tight split out shifts. We are going to run play action off of our run game as we believe they will need to bring a safety down in the run game to combat our double tight, and we will be able to hit some plays behind the second level of the LBers and an in the box safety. If they bring the blitz regularly we will feature some screens and quicker patterns to counter the aggressiveness of their defense. 

Offensive Philosophy Running Game (Special K):

Once again the balance of the Double Tight formation allows us to attack their defense from either side in the run game with the same balance. Both our TE’s are very strong and athletic blockers able to seal, or kick out LBer’s and Safeties on the edges on our run game, as well as drive block at the second level. They have a strong Dline, with two of the best LBers in the game. Our plan is to run uptempo, hurry up, not allowing substitutions, especially when Danny Shleton is in the game. This is for our run and pass game. We will motion and shift after hurrying up to the ball, to prevent those substitutions but still allowing us formation shifts. Danny Shelton who they like to feature has only played 58 snaps this season and he is just a rotational piece. If they are smart they will feature Davison who is the better player. However we believe we can wear them down either way and take advantage of gassing them with the uptempo. We will run stretch zone, inside zone, dives, power with some pulls, and power man blocking. If they start to close down on our run game, we will start to use some of our flexible formation shifts by widening out their defense with a TE in the slot or both TE split into the slot. Mark Ingram and Tony Pollard are both in the top 3 (Ingram 1st, Pollard 3rd) in yards after contact for RB's this season. We believe we are going to pick up some solid yardage on the ground throughout this game.

Offensive Philosophy Three Wide:

We will have the standard 3 wide formation (Personnel mentioned above). This also allows us formation shifts with trips on one side with Kittle, or Kittle split out in the slot for a four wide look. We will run our traditional same combo routes and run plays out of this formation. This will get Kirkpatrick on the field and if he plays the slot we will have quite the advantage with Kupp against him in the passing game. This also will lighten their box providing us with solid running opportunities. 

 

Defensive Formations:

Our base D is a 4-4 under this week with Landon Collins dropping down into the box against the two tight set on the same side as Jarrad Davis. Hungary may attempt to spread us out as they like any good team come out and adjust their attack based on the defenses weakness. My CB group isn’t great and so I could see Hungary wanting to come out in a 3 or 4 wide but they don’t really have the players to accomplish that successfully at wideout, as Gabriel is out with a concussion. If they do attempt it we will run a nickel package to counter it, and Trumaine Johnson will come in at outside corner, moving Breeland in the nickel, and Jarrad Davis will come off the field.  

Defensive Philosophy Pass Rush/Run Fits: 

We are going to run traditional gap control and single gap rushing penetration from our dline except for Vea who will two gap the A gaps. The Hippos oline has been called for 9 penalties and given up 7 sacks this season with their tackles giving up 3 sacks a piece so we believe we can get after them with our pass rush.  We will once again rotate our edge players and our interior dline to keep them fresh. Hargrave is the primary DT rotation with Hubbard being the primary Edge rotation. Rasheem Green offers depth behind them at both spots. We will run our traditional pass rush front on long to go situations and clear passing downs against their 3 wide. Cam Jordan and Ed Oliver at DT and Sam Hubbard and Trey Flowers on the edge. Jamie Collins is playing light outs and he gets the start at WLB. Joe Schobert is in the middle of our D relaying signals to the rest of the D. Jarrad Davis gets the start at SLB. With Vea controlling the A gaps, Ed Oliver has a B gap, Jarrad Davis has a B gap, Cam Jordan and Trey Flowers have C gaps. Collins and Collins have opposite D gaps. This frees up Schobert to locate the ball and not worry about gap responsibility. With him being free in the middle of the defense he can flow to either side, straight ahead to assist with Vea’s two gapping, or gap replace if we blitz against a run play. If Schobert Blitzes, gap assignments shift to allow Collins or Davis to be the free flowing backer depending on the gap we send him. Primary LBer blitzes will be coming from the two OLB Collins and Davis however. 

Defensive Philosophy Blitz/Coverage:

We will be playing primarily a mix of zone coverage, with a sprinkle of man coverage. The zone coverage we will play is Cover 3 and Cover 2. We will press and not give free releases anywhere on the field. Jamie Collins will line up opposite Landon Collins of the formation. So both Collins will have majority of jamming responsibilities on the two TE in cover 3 and man coverages. In Cover 2 Davis will jam his side TE as Landon Collins bails into his deep half. Even in some cover 3 looks we will have Davis jam the TE to throw out some post snap confusion on our coverage. When we do run our seldom used Man Coverage against their two tight we will have our CB’s man on the outside receivers, Landon Collins will man on a TE, Jamie Collins will man on a TE, Joe Schobert has the RB, Jarrad Davis either will get sent on a blitz or double the TE with Jamie Collins, and Budda has deep middle. Man against the three wide, will be all corners man receivers. Jamie Collins either blitzes or doubles TE with Landon Collins, Schobert has RB, and Budda has deep middle. We will send a blitz in all coverages to start 60 percent of the time. If we see their oline is handling our dline, which we don’t see happening based on current performances, we will increase our blitz percentage to get pressure. 

Go Wolves!

 

Hungary Hippos

Offense: 
3 Wide RPO offense. Pass/Run Ratio: 60/40

When analyzing Anchorage's defense you realize something real quick: Their linebacking core is stellar. However, the front four and back five have been areas of weakness beyond Cam Jordan. Their defensive interior while decent in run defense have not done well in pass rush. Hubbard is a marginal talent on the edge who has two sacks to his name week one but has disappeared since then. The secondary on the other hand has two starters in Awuzie and Breeland that has both struggled, Whitehead has been an worthwhile fill in at safety for the Browns as their depth safety while Collins while a star also has his weaknesses especially when put on TEs. 

Thus, the best strategy here is to run a 60/40 pass skewed RPO offense. With the lack of pass rush Goff will have more time to throw open his receivers. This week we take advantage of our WR speed game by utilizing Metcalf and Slayton on the field at the same time on the outsize taking on a potential Breeland and Awuzie. We will also have Fitzgerald line up in the slot to use his size to our advantage. Last week in a similar formation Anchorage deployed Budda Baker (5'10) to play NCB the entire game while shifting Whitehead to FS. We expect to see similar here (as the alternative is sliding in benched starter Trumaine Johnson into the lineup) which gives Larry a 5 inch advantage in addition to the 6 inch vertical difference between the two. (Fitz - 38, Baker 32).  In addition, Anchorage has a tendency to rush five either with a LB or a safety. When the safety blitzes it drops the defense from cover 2 to cover 1 with only one deep safety. We look to take advantage of our deep threats in this situation as Anchorage will be unable to account for both Metcalf and Slayton deep. When a LBer is blitzed, he typically has the SS (Collins) cover, we look to take advantage of Collins in this area through our litany of athletic TEs in Olsen, Hockenson and Doyle especially down the seam of the defense. We will also look to get Mostert out of the back field in passing plays to give yet another speed option for Goff to utilize.

With the RPO, we will also look to confuse the defense by adding the running game factor. We will be utilizing a one-two punch of Fournette and Mostert to gain yards in the running game. With the use of a 3 wide set it actually makes the defense a bit more susceptible to the running game, especially in cover 2 formations as it pulls the safeties out of range. If he plays cover two as expected we will be pounding the middle and the edge (especially on TE side) to move the chain and add a balanced aspect to our offense. We will also be using end around using Mostert as well as Slayton to gain yardage  off the edge and force Anchorage to cover the entire field. 

We will also sprinkle in some 4wide looks with Sanu, and 2 TE looks with Hockenson throughout the game. 

Blocking: This week to help with pass protection Osemele has been benched for Joe Dahl who paired with Glasglow (and Ragnow) have formed a pocket for Matthew Stafford so solid he has not been sacked in 3 games straight.

Defense: 
Base
4-3 vs. 2WR/2TE
4-2-5 vs. 3WR & 4WR

Our main goal on defense this week is top stop the running game. Kirk Cousins has not been a stellar QB this week, and we want to force Andy Dalton to actually try to beat our defense while under pressure. Last week Anchorage came out in a 2 TE formation (and got laughed at for Fant). If they come out in that same formation again we look to do the following to stop the running game. 

Greenlaw, Kuechly and McMillan have been solid run stoppers through the first three weeks of the season (with Kuechly and McMillan being rated two of top 5). We look to stuff Ingram (and a mix of Pollard etc.) at the line with 7 in the box. Chung has been added to the back 7 along with Melvin who both can seal the edge as needed. 

If Anchorage comes out in a 3WR Patrick Chung moves up into the box instead to continue the 7 man run defense. 

We will be playing man-coverage primarily on the outside with Harrison Smith guarding the deep pass. Chung and McMillan will use bracket coverage on Kittle to limit Dalton's safety valve from being used. Kuechly will primarily be on the RB as he is a side-line to sideline player in both 4-3 and 4-2-5 looks. Greenlaw will have the other TE if he goes out for a pass. 

We trust our four-man line to get after Dalton. To keep the pass rush fresh we will be rotating in our dlinemen of Wake and Suggs as well as Davison. Shelton will come in to give breathers in the run defense formations as well. Occasionally there will be a 5th rusher, especially if they decide to keep either the RB/TE in to protect.

NCB - Joseph
4Wide - Kirkpatrick

Edited September 29, 2019 by SirA1

[Scoundrel]

The vaunted starting Hippo receiving corps including Greg Olsen went for 9 catches and  71 yards combined. Good thing Fournette got to play an awful middle defense of Denver this week, gives them hope. Although my run D is much more stout.

[PR]

32 minutes ago, Counselor said:

The vaunted starting Hippo receiving corps including Greg Olsen went for 9 catches and  71 yards combined. Good thing Fournette got to play an awful middle defense of Denver this week, gives them hope. Although my run D is much more stout.

We playing fantasy football today? Do I get to point out Cousins production versus Goff? lol

Edited September 29, 2019 by PR

[Scoundrel]

2 minutes ago, PR said:

We playing fantasy football today?

Those weapons just aren’t very good. Fitz and Olsen are has beens. Metcalf didn’t show up today and slayton has done what?

[Scoundrel]

Your boy Fournette gained a lot of yards. But still hasn’t scored a TD this year:

[rackcs]

20 minutes ago, PR said:

We playing fantasy football today? Do I get to point out Cousins production versus Goff? lol

I mean, Goff put up yards but he certainly didn't look all that great today. Not that Cousins did either but still.

[Scoundrel]

9 minutes ago, rackcs said:

I mean, Goff put up yards but he certainly didn't look all that great today. Not that Cousins did either but still.

And Kupp was a big chunk of that with some RAC, especially with that TD. Kupp is better at this point than all of his receivers so don’t see Goff producing like that with the Hippo receivers. And Talib and Melvin can’t cover my guys. Talib got worked by Cameron Brate, and Chung? He got worked by Knox.

[PR]

1 hour ago, Counselor said:

And Kupp was a big chunk of that with some RAC, especially with that TD. Kupp is better at this point than all of his receivers so don’t see Goff producing like that with the Hippo receivers. And Talib and Melvin can’t cover my guys. Talib got worked by Cameron Brate, and Chung? He got worked by Knox.

Metcalf and Slayton are in the same mold as Rams triple WR speed threats which we already see both your CBs getting burned in coverage again this week. And I have no idea why you are talking about Talib when he isnt covering a TE or Chung who is bracket covering with McMillan. You just throwing garbage righy now or what?

As for Olsen and Fitz their production speaks for itself.

Melvin on the other hand has the 2nd lowest completion percentage against him.

Edited September 30, 2019 by PR

[Scoundrel]

12 minutes ago, PR said:

Metcalf and Slayton are in the same mold as Rams triple WR speed threats which we already see both your CBs getting burned in coverage again this week. And I have no idea why you are talking about Talib when he isnt covering a TE or Chung who is bracket covering with McMillan. You just throwing garbage righy now or what?

 

Melvin on the other hand has the 2nd lowest completion percentage against him.

Nope just talking about how they actually  performed. You seem to live in some fantasy land if you are comparing Metcalf and Slayton to the Rams receivers. Awuzie has a pick, Breeland a 100 yard fumble return which was the difference in the Chiefs winning or losing and he played well in coverage. And when we motion Kittle into the slot and you are bracketing him with Mcmilan and Chung it opens up so much for my Running game and other pass options. Not to mention Kittle will likely still beat their coverage quite a bit as both aren’t good in coverage. But I’ll let you live in your fantasy land and let the voters decide. 

[PR]

2 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Nope just talking about how they actually  performed. You seem to live in some fantasy land if you are comparing Metcalf and Slayton to the Rams receivers. Awuzie has a pick, Breeland a 100 yard fumble return which was the difference in the Chiefs winning or losing and he played well in coverage. But I’ll let you live in your fantasy land and let the voters decide. 

Breeland's fumble return was a goal line run and not even in coverage...

Awuzie may have gotten a pick off Teddy Bridgewater... but that is Teddy Bridgewater and does not change ehat has has done the last few weeks against DeShaun Watson or even Josh Rosen for god sakes.

[Scoundrel]

6 minutes ago, PR said:

Breeland's fumble return was a goal line run and not even in coverage...

Awuzie may have gotten a pick off Teddy Bridgewater... but that is Teddy Bridgewater and does not change ehat has has done the last few weeks against DeShaun Watson or even Josh Rosen for god sakes.

So you skip where I said Breeland played well in coverage today? Awuzie who has a higher coverage grade than Talib, and is right around Melvin’s? Haha. 

[Scoundrel]

My corners are my weakest position on this team. And even then they are right on par with yours. Your receiving weapons however might be the worst position group in BDL at the moment.

[PR]

3 minutes ago, Counselor said:

So you skip where I said Breeland played well in coverage today? Awuzie who has a higher coverage grade than Talib, and is right around Melvin’s? Haha. 

Statistics = Show me his targets to completions

I saw a whole lot of production for Detroit today

Awuzie is not performing up to eithers level