Week 1 Overreaction Thread

[Johnny Nix]

Joe Mixon puts his name in the hat for OROY with 3 TD performance vs the Ravens this week 

[Gmen]

I don't think it's an over reaction to say the patriots defense will be bad this year.  They have nobody in that front seven that can consistently rush the passer.  The secondary can't cover forever.

 I thought it was funny / strange how the broadcast kept harping about Patricia being a "rocket scientist", as his defense was getting torched for nearly 600 yards.

[JAF-N72EX]

2 hours ago, daineraider said:

Well considering they were 3-13 3 years ago and 7-9 2 years ago thats not really surprising.  Last year was their first winning season in 10+ years.  

Yeah, I get that. They're 22-26 over the last 3 years and they were indeed 4-4 last season against 9+ win teams. But they are also 14-6 against teams with 8 or less wins over that same 3 year period with 8 of those 14 coming in 2016 as well. So ultimately it can work both ways. 

 

To be honest I think it says more about the tough division than anything else though. I mean, it's more than just a coincidence that both Oakland and SD have played against more 9+ win teams (28) and the least amount of teams with 8 wins or less(20) than any other in the league over that same span. To put that into better perspective the league average for those are 22.5 and 25.5, respectively. KC and Denver have each played 26 (if you count KC's game last night). And to top it off the AFC West as a whole has played against far more 9+ win teams than any other division in the league with a total of 107 and still have the highest combined win % as well. By comparison, the league average is 90 with the next closest being the AFC south with 94 games. 

Combined Totals by Division
DIVISION	Total # GM	Avg Win %
AFC WEST	107	0.408
NFC WEST	91	0.400
AFC EAST	86	0.374
NFC EAST	85	0.348
AFC NORTH	93	0.307
NFC SOUTH	75	0.296
NFC NORTH	89	0.263
AFC SOUTH	94	0.256

Division	Team	Wins	Losses	Ties	# of Games	Win %	Div Games	Div Wins	Div Losses	Div Ties	Div win %
AFC EAST	BUF	7	16	0	23	0.304	10	4	6	0	0.400
AFC EAST	MIA	7	14	0	21	0.333	10	3	7	0	0.300
AFC EAST	NWE	15	6	0	21	0.714	6	4	2	0	0.667
AFC EAST	NYJ	3	18	0	21	0.143	10	1	9	0	0.100
AFC NORTH	BAL	5	18	0	23	0.217	10	4	6	0	0.400
AFC NORTH	CIN	8	15	1	24	0.333	8	3	5	0	0.375
AFC NORTH	CLE	2	24	0	26	0.077	12	2	10	0	0.167
AFC NORTH	PIT	12	8	0	20	0.600	6	4	2	0	0.667
AFC SOUTH	HOU	7	14	0	21	0.333	4	1	3	0	0.250
AFC SOUTH	IND	9	17	0	26	0.346	8	5	3	0	0.625
AFC SOUTH	JAX	1	23	0	24	0.042	10	1	9	0	0.100
AFC SOUTH	TEN	7	16	0	23	0.304	8	1	7	0	0.125
AFC WEST	DEN	15	11	0	26	0.577	10	6	4	0	0.600
AFC WEST	KAN	13	12	0	25	0.520	10	7	3	0	0.700
AFC WEST	OAK	8	20	0	28	0.286	14	3	11	0	0.214
AFC WEST	SDG	7	21	0	28	0.250	14	1	13	0	0.071
NFC EAST	DAL	11	10	0	21	0.524	8	4	4	0	0.500
NFC EAST	NYG	6	16	0	22	0.273	10	4	6	0	0.400
NFC EAST	PHI	9	15	0	24	0.375	10	3	7	0	0.300
NFC EAST	WAS	4	14	0	18	0.222	8	3	5	0	0.375
NFC NORTH	CHI	3	23	0	26	0.115	12	2	10	0	0.167
NFC NORTH	DET	3	17	0	20	0.150	8	2	6	0	0.250
NFC NORTH	GNB	11	11	0	22	0.500	6	4	2	0	0.667
NFC NORTH	MIN	6	15	0	21	0.286	10	2	8	0	0.200
NFC SOUTH	ATL	8	10	0	18	0.444	4	2	2	0	0.500
NFC SOUTH	CAR	6	13	1	20	0.300	4	0	4	0	0.000
NFC SOUTH	NOR	4	17	0	21	0.190	6	1	5	0	0.167
NFC SOUTH	TAM	4	12	0	16	0.250	4	1	3	0	0.250
NFC WEST	SFO	5	19	0	24	0.208	10	1	9	0	0.100
NFC WEST	ARI	12	8	1	21	0.571	6	2	3	1	0.333
NFC WEST	LAR	7	19	0	26	0.269	10	5	5	0	0.500
NFC WEST	SEA	11	9	0	20	0.550	4	3	1	0	0.750
	TOTALS	236	481	3	720	N/A	270	89	180	1	N/A
	League AVG	7.38	15.03	0.09	22.50	0.332	8.39	2.74	5.61	0.03	0.351

[JAF-N72EX]

By the way, I love that you can just copy/paste spreadsheets on the forum now. Makes things much much easier.

[Shady Slim]

alex smith is going to kaepernick tom brady

[Pats#1]

- Julian Edelman was the most important player on the Pats

- (Insert other AFCE team that wins this weekend) is going to win the Division this season

[onejayhawk]

9 hours ago, MightyMouse07 said:

Not sure if you're being sarcastic or not.

Smith hasn't thrown for 30 TDs in his career. He hasn't thrown for more than 23 in his career.

If Hunt really ran for over 1800 yards then I'd be wowed. 

True, but both are doable, albeit unlikely, based on week 1.

If Smith is opening up the toolbox a bit, he has the weapons at WR. Everyone looks at Hill, but Conley and Robinson are burners with size. I can see 30 TD as a real possibility. Hunt getting 1800 yards is more of a pipe dream, but this is a good start in that direction. A rookie total yards record is more interesting. I'll be watching that one.

J

[MightyMouse07]

1 minute ago, onejayhawk said:

True, but both are doable, albeit unlikely, based on week 1.

If Smith is opening up the toolbox a bit, he has the weapons at WR. Everyone looks at Hill, but Conley and Robinson are burners with size. I can see 30 TD as a real possibility. Hunt getting 1800 yards is more of a pipe dream, but this is a good start in that direction. A rookie total yards record is more interesting. I'll be watching that one.

J

This is called the overreaction thread for a reason.

Even with his 4 TD game. Smith would have to have a really amazing year for his standards to reach 30 passing TDs. Like I said, his previous high was 23. Last year with basically the same cast plus Maclin he only had 15. On the year. 

[onejayhawk]

13 minutes ago, MightyMouse07 said:

This is called the overreaction thread for a reason.

Even with his 4 TD game. Smith would have to have a really amazing year for his standards to reach 30 passing TDs. Like I said, his previous high was 23. Last year with basically the same cast plus Maclin he only had 15. On the year. 

In this case you didn't overreact. 

You are thinking of the 2016 offense and you should not be. It's true that the personnel is much the same, but the offense looks poised to make a quantum leap forward. LOTS more speed  and a healthy OL. He had a 23 TD season before, 26 more in 15 is not a huge stretch. Hill gets 10, Kelce and Hunt another six each, and six spread around (Harris has one already). Sure, it would be a surprise, but not a shocker.

J

 

[Ragnarok]

Berry is a much bigger loss than anyone realizes and KC misses the playoffs. 

I don't think that'll happen necessarily...but I keep seeing comments about how safety is deep and they can cover for him.  Dude is the heart and soul of that team.  That said, I think him not being on the field could legitimately keep them from being a legit SB team.  But they can maybe win a playoff game.

[stl4life07]

17 hours ago, August4th said:

Pats defense is bottom 5

Gronk is a shell of himself

Smith will be in MVP talks

Pats defense isn't bottom 5 but it's gonna be bad. Hightower got hurt, Ninkovich retired, and in the past few years they traded Collins and Jones away. So where will the consistent pressure come from? Will they consistently be able to stop the run? 

The Pats play the Saints, Bucs, Chargers, Panthers, Falcons, Raiders, and Steelers. Those teams have better offenses than what the Pats saw in the Chiefs. So again I don't think the Pats will have a bottom 5 defense but below average defense? Yes. I could totally see it.

[Hunter2_1]

12 hours ago, Gmen said:

I don't think it's an over reaction to say the patriots defense will be bad this year.  They have nobody in that front seven that can consistently rush the passer.  The secondary can't cover forever.

 I thought it was funny / strange how the broadcast kept harping about Patricia being a "rocket scientist", as his defense was getting torched for nearly 600 yards.

We didn't really have anyone that could consistently rush the passer last season either, but we were a top 10 D. Sheard didn't build on his impressive first season, Long was average at best (used mainly in run defense), and what, McCllelin? Our best rushers were Flowers and Hightower (when he was assigned). Who remain. 

[Hunter2_1]

4 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

Pats defense isn't bottom 5 but it's gonna be bad. Hightower got hurt, Ninkovich retired, and in the past few years they traded Collins and Jones away. So where will the consistent pressure come from? Will they consistently be able to stop the run? 

The Pats play the Saints, Bucs, Chargers, Panthers, Falcons, Raiders, and Steelers. Those teams have better offenses than what the Pats saw in the Chiefs. So again I don't think the Pats will have a bottom 5 defense but below average defense? Yes. I could totally see it.

Hightower isn't hurt. I can't explain how, but we were a top 10 D last year, with most of the pieces in place that are there now. Lost Sheard and Long but added Guy and David Harris. Need Flowers to make the step up, but we won't be as bad as we were yesterday. 

[stl4life07]

3 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Hightower isn't hurt. I can't explain how, but we were a top 10 D last year, with most of the pieces in place that are there now. Lost Sheard and Long but added Guy and David Harris. Need Flowers to make the step up, but we won't be as bad as we were yesterday. 

That's good Hightower isn't hurt. Like he is their most valuable player on defense. But that performance against the Chiefs is concerning. They made Alex Smoth look like Brady. Maybe Brady lost his talent to Smith that night (thinking about Space Jam lol).

[bucsfan333]

33 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

That's good Hightower isn't hurt. Like he is their most valuable player on defense. But that performance against the Chiefs is concerning. They made Alex Smoth look like Brady. Maybe Brady lost his talent to Smith that night (thinking about Space Jam lol).