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2019 MLB Hot Stove Thread


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Sahadev Sharma: Theo Epstein used the word "envy" with regard to other teams. Whether it's seeing the Yankees repeatedly finishing player dev at the MLB level to Milwaukee's whole being greater than the sum of the parts, the Cubs know they need more from their entire organization.

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On ‎10‎/‎1‎/‎2019 at 10:10 PM, bigbadbuff said:

Why would you want to do that?

So, when I asked this, I was drunk and the Nats were losing badly. I assumed they were going to lose, and this offseason, Stras will opt out and go to SD for a mountain of cash, while Rendon goes to Texas for a mountain of cash that makes Stras' look like a foothill. 
 

If that were the case, I'd rather get out from under Scherzer's contract and look to re-boot the team.

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3 hours ago, Slateman said:

So, when I asked this, I was drunk and the Nats were losing badly. I assumed they were going to lose, and this offseason, Stras will opt out and go to SD for a mountain of cash, while Rendon goes to Texas for a mountain of cash that makes Stras' look like a foothill. If that were the case, I'd rather get out from under Scherzer's contract and look to re-boot the team.

Thats interesting....you think they'll let both of them leave? Thats a fair amount of top end talent.....why would you want to lose Scherzer then?

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Just now, Leader said:

Thats interesting....you think they'll let both of them leave? Thats a fair amount of top end talent.....why would you want to lose Scherzer then?

No choice on Stras. If he doesn't want to be there, he doesn't have to be. He's big on stability and family, but I could totally see a team like the Padres willing to pay for him. They have the payroll space. They have one year left with Yates.  Urias will start next season and probably hit well. Richards will be back and Paddock won't have an innings cap. Their farm system is still quite good and could potentially get them an OF piece they need.

Apparently Rendon made it clear he isn't interested in a whole lot of deferred money. The Lerners or Rizzo can't seem to grasp the concept that every team in baseball can offer deferred money and if you're going to do it, it has to be a pretty big overpay. Scherzer's contract blew everyone else out of the water. Everyone thought Corbin was going to get 5 years/ 100-120 million range, but the Nats went 6/140. But they offered Harper so much deferred money it actually reduced the amount of their offer. I don't know why they keep doing this, because the team clearly has the money. 

 

So yeah, I could totally see both of them leaving. If that happens, I just don't see the Nats being competitive until 2022. They have some nice pieces in the farm system, but Garcia and Rutledge aren't really MLB ready until 2022. They have nothing locked up for first base, and RF consists of slap hitting OFer who is losing defensive ability rapidly. I mean, maybe you move Soto to first and Eaton to LF, but a year or two from now, you have nothing in either corner OF spot. 

I also think it would have a devastating effect on the fan base. They would have effectively lost a major hitter three years in a row (Murphy in 2018, Harper in 2019, Rendon in 2020). The fan base already noticed Harper gone. Losing Rendon would be pretty bad. Particularly of Rendon continues to mash like he did the last three seasons. Harper we can kind of stomach because of his attitude/persona, and the fact that he fell off a cliff in 2017 and became a ~.250 hitter. But Rendon doesn't have the persona issue and he's been a consistently good hitter. 

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Good answer. Thanks @Slateman

I dont follow national league teams/rosters nearly as closely as I do american - simply because we dont play them often enough.

I'd actually forgotten you'd signed Corbin this year (if the NYY dont sign them, they're dead to me :) ). 

I'll tell ya.....my outside looking perspective on Harper was I thought the Nats felt they had his replacement in Soto - and if so, cant say that wasnt a bad decision. He's the guy you want to tie down to a 10 year contract more than Harper IMO. 

Agree is sounds like they're initial offer to Rendon mirrors what they threw at Harper - which he passed on - so not sure the logic on repeating it....

Well - thats offseason stuff and it appears the Nats still have 2019 matters to address. Good luck to you/them. Maybe we'll play each other in the WS - but there's roads to hoe before that comes to fruition. Miles to go and roads to hoe. 

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I agree on Harper. Actually, I was on that train a while ago. I just felt like Harper had too much inconsistency in him, a la Josh Hamilton. When he's hot, he's scorching. We saw that in 2015 and 2017. But when he's not … he's a 4 WAR outfielder. And while that's nothing to hold your nose at, it's also not worth breaking the bank over.

The contract to Rendon was structured more like Scherzer's , with all  the deferred money coming in the subsequent seven years. Harper's offer had the deferred money over a much longer period. 

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Anyone else curious what contracts Ozuna and Castellanos will get?

Ozuna has been a disappointment in St. Louis. Does he try a one year deal to up his value? Would he take a sub 20 million AAV? Sub 15 million?

Then there is Castellanos. A lot of comparisons to JD Martinez. What does he get? Would he move to first base to do it?

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On 10/4/2019 at 8:58 PM, Slateman said:

Anyone else curious what contracts Ozuna and Castellanos will get?

Ozuna has been a disappointment in St. Louis. Does he try a one year deal to up his value? Would he take a sub 20 million AAV? Sub 15 million?

Then there is Castellanos. A lot of comparisons to JD Martinez. What does he get? Would he move to first base to do it?

If Ozuna is seeing contracts under 15, I'd bet he'd sign his QO. Isn't it at 17 or something?

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6 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said:

If Ozuna is seeing contracts under 15, I'd bet he'd sign his QO. Isn't it at 17 or something?

Can you negotiate after the QO? I thought you had accept or decline it before free agency started.

Ozuna will be 29 next year. I could see him taking the QO or a one year deal to try and up his value.

OTOH, I think his value is 5 years at ~14-16 million 

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On 10/4/2019 at 8:58 PM, Slateman said:

Anyone else curious what contracts Ozuna and Castellanos will get?

Ozuna has been a disappointment in St. Louis. Does he try a one year deal to up his value? Would he take a sub 20 million AAV? Sub 15 million?

Then there is Castellanos. A lot of comparisons to JD Martinez. What does he get? Would he move to first base to do it?

I'd bet a TON of money that Ozuna gets a QO.  There's no real reason not to offer the QO.  And that's going to depress his value on the FA market.  Would he accept the QO?  He'd be banking on him returning to that Marlins' form that seems unlikely.

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On 10/6/2019 at 3:48 PM, Slateman said:

Can you negotiate after the QO? I thought you had accept or decline it before free agency started.

Ozuna will be 29 next year. I could see him taking the QO or a one year deal to try and up his value.

OTOH, I think his value is 5 years at ~14-16 million 

Theoretically, you could have your agent solicit interest to start getting an idea of what the market might look like if you're on the borderline, but you only have 5 days to accept it and it's right at the beginning of free agency. Given that the prevailing strategy from MLB teams is to wait as many players as possible into spring training and see who bites on a lowball offer, in practice you basically can't negotiate during the QO offer period.

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