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TNF: Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks


SBLIII

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SEA is a really good team, but this game is a bad matchup for them, for 4 reasons I see on O:

1.  No Jarran Reed - he really makes that run D fierce.   Much like when BAL loses Brandon Williams, SEA's DL takes a big hit.

2.  LAR has a better time with the run game, they set up play action - which is what Goff needs to succeed.

3.  SEA's secondary has huge issues in coverage - and Kupp's return just gives the Rams such a multi-faceted attack, with Everett and Gurley they basically have all 3 levels of downfield, and the flats with mismatches.  

4.  What D's do to disrupt LAR's O - get after Goff with early pressure, and inside pressure, even moreso.  The LAR OL is their weakest part, and inside even more than the T's.  TAM's combo of Suh & McCoy made life miserable (and a big part of Shaq Barrett's explosion is OL's can't just focus on him).    I don't know that SEA's pass rush can do the same thing.

On the SEA O vs. LAR D, I see more issues for the D, but there are a couple of important points:

1.  SEA's pass game really runs through 2 guys between the 20's - all-world Tyler Lockett (2nd most separation in routes run), and new Jason-Witten lite Will Dissly (because like Witten, zero elite athletic traits - he really fits the "Uncle Will" nickname lol).    Once they get into the RZ, DK Metcalf is a possible weapon, but here's where LAR's D matches up better - I think Aqib Talib has the length to neutralize Metcalf - the matchup problem is Lockett.   

2.  SEA's run game is the one major advantage I see (besides Russell Wilson's wizadry, obv).   But Carson's fumbles have been costly.   He did a great job vs. ARI, but LAR's D is more ball-hawking in nature.


SEA can win with 3 outcomes - Goff still stuck in his slump, Wilson going nuts, and of course, the TO game (duh).   I don't think all 3 have to happen for a SEA win, but at least 2 of those 3.   It's just that after that L vs. TAM (who posed a perfect storm of the exact wrong matchups on both sides of the ball, and a surging Winston, who outside of Mahomes, is balling as well as any QB), I trust McVay will bounce back.  I will say that ever since Gurley got hurt, McVay's lost his swagger of going for it, and played it safe.  That's got to change, but I think the TAM game is a big wake up call in that regard.  I look for McVay to prove he's still an innovator and genius, and not just a guy who has great recall (you have to use the info retained).

I think it's a close game, but I love that LAR is getting points here.  I think it's a 30-28 type game, and if it's that close, I have to give Legatron the edge.  

Much like last TNF, I'm actually looking forward to a good game.  Hoping it will live up to the billing (and LAR +2 lol).

Edited by Broncofan
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The road team on TNF usually loses. I have no idea what to make of the Rams this year. The one thing we have going for us is that McVay seems to have a good understanding of how to attack the Pete Carroll defense. The question is if our OL can hold up.

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3 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Any QB besides Wilson probably doesn't survive behind the lines that Wilson's played through. Not only is he very unique in how he can avoid sacks, he's very unique in that he also gains a lot of yards without taking big hits in general. He's just an anomaly in virtually every way a dual-threat QB can be.

One has to wonder how the line would perform with a different QB. I'm not doubting that they have been bad, but different QBs run offenses a different way. I remember Peyton Manning making a whole bunch of OLs who had no careers outside of Indy look great.

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8 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

One has to wonder how the line would perform with a different QB. I'm not doubting that they have been bad, but different QBs run offenses a different way. I remember Peyton Manning making a whole bunch of OLs who had no careers outside of Indy look great.

There is absolutely some truth in that early in Wilson's career his erratic scrambling tendencies made the OL look worse under certain circumstances, so asking how they would perform if the QB behind them was more stationary is certainly valid. I don't think the variance would be too much, though. Putting a different QB (unless we're assuming the QB change is of a pocket passer just as good as Wilson, so basically Brady/Brees/Manning?) behind many of those OL's I don't believe would've netted anything except much worse results.

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1 minute ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

There is absolutely some truth in that early in Wilson's career his erratic scrambling tendencies made the OL look worse under certain circumstances, so asking how they would perform if the QB behind them was more stationary is certainly valid. I don't think the variance would be too much, though. Putting a different QB (unless we're assuming the QB change is of a pocket passer just as good as Wilson, so basically Brady/Brees/Manning?) behind many of those OL's I don't believe would've netted anything except much worse results.

I think it depends on the QB. Manning was being sacked less than just about any QB while throwing behind guys named Tony Ugoh, Mike Pollak, Kyle DeVan, Ryan Diem, etc.

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42 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I think it depends on the QB. Manning was being sacked less than just about any QB while throwing behind guys named Tony Ugoh, Mike Pollak, Kyle DeVan, Ryan Diem, etc.

A good QB can make an oline look better there’s no doubt about that.  Saints oline has been bad lately, but Teddy is taking sacks Brees wouldn’t have.

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Im a little baffled at why everyone is so high on Wilson? He has had two 4000 yd passing seasons in the most explosive passing era ever. 2 out of 7 full seasons. In no way does that scream elite. Wilson is a definite playmaker and has exceptional talent. But he hasnt produced like a top 6 qb, let alone top 3. 

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1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

I think it depends on the QB. Manning was being sacked less than just about any QB while throwing behind guys named Tony Ugoh, Mike Pollak, Kyle DeVan, Ryan Diem, etc.

But how many other QB's can you say this about? Sure, if you put Manning or Brady behind that line maybe you get the same results as Wilson, but for the other 99.9% of QB's, the results are probably much, much worse.

10 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

Im a little baffled at why everyone is so high on Wilson? He has had two 4000 yd passing seasons in the most explosive passing era ever. 2 out of 7 full seasons. In no way does that scream elite. Wilson is a definite playmaker and has exceptional talent. But he hasnt produced like a top 6 qb, let alone top 3. 

If you're judging Wilson solely based off of Passing Yards, I can certainly see how you'd reach this conclusion. Otherwise, it's insane to imply he hasn't been producing like a top 6 QB, let alone top 3. Right now I'd argue he's #2 behind Mahomes, and he's without a doubt solidified firmly in the top 5.

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7 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

But how many other QB's can you say this about? Sure, if you put Manning or Brady behind that line maybe you get the same results as Wilson, but for the other 99.9% of QB's, the results are probably much, much worse.

If you're judging Wilson solely based off of Passing Yards, I can certainly see how you'd reach this conclusion. Otherwise, it's insane to imply he hasn't been producing like a top 6 QB, let alone top 3. Right now I'd argue he's #2 behind Mahomes, and he's without a doubt solidified firmly in the top 5.

Based off what exactly? Eye test? Skill? I mean his efficiency since 2016 hasnt been anything top 3 worthy.

 

Broken 66% comp 1 time (career)

65% 2 times (career)

8.0 ypa 3 of 7 times (career)

Passer rating has been pretty goood. No season under 92. 3 seasons over 100. Only once when throwing 4000 yds. (Career)

1 time over 7.2 ANY/A. (Career)

 

 

Edited by Bearerofnews
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33 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

Based off what exactly? Eye test? Skill? I mean his efficiency since 2016 hasnt been anything top 3 worthy.

Broken 66% comp 1 time (career)

65% 2 times (career)

8.0 ypa 3 of 7 times (career)

Passer rating has been pretty goood. No season under 92. 3 seasons over 100. Only once when throwing 4000 yds. (Career)

1 time over 7.2 ANY/A. (Career)

I never thought we'd be in 2019 still having to justify to people that Russell Wilson is elite, but here we are.

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