Jump to content

2019-2020 NCAAB Discussion Thread 1.0: March Madness Canceled


NYRaider

Recommended Posts

6 hours ago, Cheesehawk said:

So Garza or Toppin for POTY?

 Both having very impressive years, but I give Garza slight statistical edge:

qWhB5gf.png

 

Now none of these numbers take into account SOS. Garza is playing in the toughest conference, while Toppin is in a mid major, making Garza's slight edge in the numbers become a lot more impressive to me. Per KenPom, Iowa has played the 7th toughest schedule in the country, while Dayton has played the 99th toughest. 

Fair or not, Obi's team success (on track for a 1 seed) vs Garza's teams success (#18, will likely end up in 4 to 6 seed range) will play a role, and that is what will make this a close race but I think Garza still comes out with it. Normally the power 5 player would have the benefit of exposure, which would aid greatly in popular perception, but Obi being a top tier prospect while Garza is not, nullifies that to an extent. I would say neither really has much of an advantage in exposure (and when I say exposure, I pretty much mean ESPN talking about you). Iowa is the B1G team, but Dayton is the team that doesn't lose that scouts are tuned in on.

Now come B1G tournament time, Garza will no doubt have the advantage of exposure vs A10 tourney, and that's where he can win the award by force if he and Iowa go on an impressive run. Conversely, playing poorly in the tourney or getting bounced early could be enough to default it to Toppin, if we assume Dayton takes care of business as usual with Toppin leading the way.

 

So to clarify, Garza has my vote over Toppin pretty much no matter what. It would take unlikely play from either to change my mind there.. but in terms of who I predict wins, I am leaning Garza. It's a close race. I'd contend it is Garza who controls his fate.

 

 

I don't think Prichard, Flynn, Carey, Howard, any of those guys have a legitimate shot, but there is 1 other guy I think still can end up with the award, and that's Powell. He isn't coming out of nowhere like Garza or Toppin, he is a senior who was on the Wooden watch list the year before, and that's an advantage in these kind of things. Seton Hall is top 15, but with their remaining schedule, Creighton, Nova and Marquette, they can easily shoot to a 2 seed, and then there's the tournament. At the Garden. Plenty of opportunity for Powell to create a ton of "moments" as a guard who can get red hot and make highlight reel stretches of scoring at will in dazzling fashion, as opposed to Garza and Toppin who are more akin to machines, and as bigs, naturally don't make as many flashy plays. Of course, a lot has to go right, Hall has to be an elite team, which they haven't been all year. So I don't expect it to happen, but there is 100% a path for Myles to steal the award and even run away with it, however unlikely it is.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...