Sugashane Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, topwop1 said: What limitations will they have exactly? While it'd be ideal to get a cheap QB that's good they need to focus more on getting one who can get the job done regardless of cost. As of right now they only have 36 players signed and only $12.78 mil in space (per spotrac). Long will jump that cap up when he is cut/retires but that drops to 35 players with $20.88 mil. This is with our SS and his back up and DT and Kwiatkoski being out. Rookies will have about $3 mil tied to them too. Got a lot of holes to fill and if Foles is taking $16 mil then you're at about $3 mil with only 41 players (35+5 rooks+ Foles). You can cut Prince for another $9 but then you have a starting CB spot open. Mike Davis should be cut immediately and that will open up $3 mil next year too, Whyte can take his spot or Patterson. So just a quick mock of it and you have $15 mil to spread out and fill out a roster, minus whatever emergency cap they set aside. Or if you have a rookie and Tru instead of Foles you have over $30 mil but another spot to fill, since the rookie takes Foles' spot. Now you might be able to bring Bush and Kwit back, or add competition to the OL if you're not sure Coward or Bars are they ones for the RG spot. Or a vet TE so you're not relying solely on Burton and Shaheen. There are contracts to cut, but you're opening holes without a lot of draft capital to compensate. They will need to be creative to add depth and patch some of these holes, or gamble on rookies. I'm sure they have already put together a number of scenarios to help with the cap though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 3 hours ago, Sugashane said: Hey I'm happy you're taking the time to show me some things on this. I really do appreciate it. This is a bit more complicated than how I do my bids for my job. Lol That posts makes perfect sense to me now, I was confused on where our numbers were so different for Tru, but I'm good now I'm a career financial consultant and investment analyst but now mostly retired. Most of the cap stuff is kind of second nature because I've been asked to work on a few pro contract offers before and offer my opinion. I have more time to do this stuff now and kind of enjoy it so I'm g;ad to help whenever I can. The cap stuff gets somewhat complex at times and some of it is really difficult to get an accurate handle on. Like if players move and have offset language in their contracts then a team can gain cap credit back if they sign elsewhere which is what happened with Glennon but in this case it's pretty straight forward. Where at least some of the confusion comes from, and now Spotrac has cleaned that up as well, is how a players cap hit varies from the cash he receives in any given year because of the addition of signing bonus money the league allows teams to amortize over the life of the deal. Cap is always cash $$$ + SB $$$ for that year even if the player has already received that money already upon signing. But that SB is sunken cost once it's been paid or even escrowed so it stays with the team who agreed to it and is always charged to their cap. It can also frequently be part of or the entire amount of dead cap when a player is cut or traded so it comes into play when making those decisions. That's why saying re-tool the OL isn't as easy as it sounds. Leno is due $8 mil in cash in 2020 with a $10.294 mil cap hit but if we move on from him we still take a $7.376 mil dead cap hit and would in all likelihood have to spend $10 mil or more to replace him with a vet LT or risk playing an inexperienced rookie or 2nd year guy like Bars. Massie has a 2020 dead cap hit of $10.8 mil vs an $8.3 mil cap hit and $7 mil cash so IMHO 2021 will be about the soonest we could move on from either of them. But I think we can probably count on Kyle Long retiring which will save us about $8 mil in 2020 cap that could be used to bolster the OL if needed or it's also cap space and cash that could go towards another QB. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 (edited) 4 hours ago, Sugashane said: Hey I'm happy you're taking the time to show me some things on this. I really do appreciate it. This is a bit more complicated than how I do my bids for my job. Lol That posts makes perfect sense to me now, I was confused on where our numbers were so different for Tru, but I'm good now I see our disconnect. By fluke I was speaking of his production. He has a ridiculous year in 2013. A 28/2 TD/INT ratio absolutely is a fluke, and there is no denying that. That was an aberration that he never came close to replicating. Win loss record is a team deal, Tru has a 14 and 5 record under Nagy. But he was not the catalyst for the majority of those wins. That's why win/loss is a statistic I don't look at as much. And to be fair I said "taking that one season out" in which his regular season record drops to 18-17. That absolutely is near a losing record, like I said. If we also want to take out his worst year (to take the two extremes out) then you get a 17-12 record when you remove his rookie year. Still below Tru. But I agree he is a better passer, and would add a win or two more than Tru most likely. I'm not clutching at straws at all. Nagy's offenses have been pathetic with plenty of talent around. Pederson had a more consistent offense, Nagy beat up on bad defenses after a poor start and was crap for the last 5 last year, and has been pretty damn bad this year too. As for talent, I don't see how you can argue that they are similar or worse than Chicago. Ertz vs Burton - Ertz by a mile. Jeffery vs Robinson - I'd go Robinson honestly. Agholor (sp?) vs Gabriel - Agholor. Goedert vs Shaheen - Goedert. Tate vs Miller - I'd give that to Miller last year, but this year Tate has been much better, maybe Miller had an aberration but I hope he bounce back. The OL was Peters, Johnson, Kelce, Brooks and someone I'm forgetting, but that beats out OL even with Long when he wasn't a corpse last year. Pederson has a Super Bowl to his name, if that is going to be validation for Foles then it is clearly a point that he gets to note. He was the one directing the offense that Foles had success in. Nagy is heading the abortion we are seeing. Double Doink might have missed the final field goal, but that pathetic offensove effort and gameplan had him as the only person putting points on the board. The offense had a single TD that game under Nagy. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. For offensive coaching Wentz has been a hot name for MVP, Foles has been a Super Bowl MVP, and Tru has been an undeserved Pro Bowl Alternate and now looking at potentially being benched in favor of Chase Daniel. I see little in Chicago's favor bud. I said I'd be fine with Nagy betting on Foles. I don't think much of him overall but if Nagy has to put up or shut up and stop making excuses for his offensive failures. And by all means if they make me eat my words I'd be ecstatic, I'm just giving my opinion on him. I prefer Nagy and Pace gamble on a kid that Nagy toes himself to. Putting up more than 12 PPG whatever the offense has averaged the last 11 games shouldn't be hard (maybe his garbage time points Sunday might bump that up), and Nagy is supposed to be able to develop QBs. Let him prove he can. If Nagy wants Foles though, go for it. But Tru needs to be done and put on a reserve role if so. Nagy has to take a stand and plant his flag, so to speak. I think the Tru experiment has failed and we need to move on. My rationale with Foles was that he isn't going to fix the horrid run blocking. He isn't going to get the pocket that PHI routinely gave him, etc. But with a rookie you might be able to take advantage of the extra cap to improve the OL or TE. Foles is going to need better than what Burton is offering, though maybe he gets back to form. But if Nagy and Pace choose him, then I'm all for it and I'll root like hell for him. Without a doubt the offense needs help in more ways than just QB but there and at TE are where we seem to have the biggest talent voids. The rest of the offense looks pretty good including the OL. So what's their problem and I agree it's been an issue for more than just these 6 games and we need to find answers quickly and get on track. So is it all about Nagy's schemes and his play calling or something else? I find it pretty easy to criticize his play calling AND the fact that he came in with a rep for abandoning the run game in favor of passing too much. To date nothing he's done has changed my mind on that score which is at least one reason why I believe he needs to give the headset and play sheet to Helfrich or Ragone and coach the entire team all game long. But Trubisky's ineffectiveness still presents a problem. In his presser Nagy selected three throws earlier in the game where the play call was correct, Mitch had an open man, and had he completed the pass it would have gone for a big gain. Those are the kind of plays he needs to make in order to loosen the run defense but he blew all three. That's not on Nagy. So in addition to handing over the play call this is also why I favor starting Daniel for a few games so players and schemes can be better evaluated without our QB being the most obvious hindrance to success and right now that is precisely what Mitch is. He even knows that much himself so sitting him would not exactly come as a shock to his system. It's kind of a crude process of elimination that by eliminating your weakest link you can also get a better view of where other weaker links may exist and plan accordingly. What else are you gonna try when even Nagy himself is saying he's unsure of what to do in order to fix Mitch and his offense. Continuing to play him expecting it all to magically get better isn't gonna work. We know that and so should he. Whether it Foles or someone else Nagy is gonna have to start with sending out someone each week who can operate his offense efficiently enough to score points and win some games. That's square one. With this defense simply being a low risk game manager who can conduct drives to control the clock and put up 24-30 points a game is all we need out of a QB right now. I don't know if Daniel can do that or not but sure as hell Trubisky isn't doing it and actually hasn't done it consistently yet. That has to change even if it means cutting our losses with him and replacing him with Foles (doubtful) or someone else. I only selected Foles because he has the track record, credentials, and a familiarity with this type of offense but he's also signed with JAX and on IR. That last bit coupled with Minshew's play may create a possibility of getting him for a price we'd pay but admittedly it's a long shot. We could debate the record vs stats thing 'til Christmas and not agree. Foles has a winning record playing under a HC whose similar to Nagy. That's good enough for me. Cutler was let go because of his record not his stats which were the best of any Bears QB in history and he won 80% of his starts when we allowed 20 points or less. With this defense and this kind of offensive talent we could bring him back and even he would play better than Mitch is playing right now and we'd win some games. (being facetious here) I realize 3-3 is not exactly the pits but it doesn't take much foresight to see that Mitch will continue to struggle beating any good defense and we end up at .500 just as we are now or worse. He's clearly not the guy right now and there's a better than average chance he will never be the guy who will ever justify his draft status. That's more than enough for me to say we need to keep looking elsewhere. Edited October 23, 2019 by soulman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 4 hours ago, Sugashane said: Our OL has talent but is massively underperforming with regularity, they have been underprepared for simple twists and assignments. Talent only means so much if there isn't direction and scheming from coaching. The OL has been really bad, especially Leno. Until that improves the run game suffers and and Nagy just seems to hand the responsibility to Try and hope he makes something happen. I completely agree, the Bears had 3 options for their pick and would have been doing well with two, but they gave the most inexperienced kid the least help his rookie year. They may have ruined him like they did Cutler. It's possible but as much as anything we blew it with Jay be refusing to get him the kind to talent Mitch has around him now. Cutler also had 10x the amount of mental toughness and football savvy Mitch has shown so far. Mitch has all of the physical tools to succeed but may not have the head to go along with it. Leno has never been a great run blocker but because he's always been a dependable above average pass blocker and we've schemed around that shortfall. Personally I believe one issue with the OL is they miss Long and his leadership and no one else has filled that void. An OL needs a tougher than nails leader which is what Long was and Olin Kruetz long before him. When we've had that kind of player our OL have been good but far worse without that kind of leadership. So whose gonna step up now that Kyle is history? Someone has to but I don't see another with his attitude and outspokenness. Whitehair or Daniels would be a logical choice but it ain't happenin' yet and it sure as hell needs to. My other hunch as far as the running game goes is Nagy's scheme doesn't fit some of these guys well at all. So he's either gonna have to rebuild an OL that fits his scheme (and that takes time and money) or adapt it to the OL he has now. Clearly Howard was not the only problem and losing a healthy productive Kyle Long is. Bad break there for all of us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 5 hours ago, abstract_thought said: Money is the biggest issue with Foles and it's tough to work around. The Bears have serious salary cap limitations and adding Foles will only further complicate the finances. They need to focus on guys who don't/won't cost much. We'd be jumping from a $14 mil cap cost at QB to a $25 mil cap cost with Foles but we won't have Daniel's $6 mil and in all likelihood Long won't be around in 2020 saving us another $8 mil and a few others as well that could save even more. We also have almost $19 mil in cap space now some or all of which can be carried forward into 2020. We may have to sacrifice players at other spots to acquire any vet QB who can complete to Mitch but without a competent passer and leader on offense having the best defense won't matter. We still won't win a championship and never have without one. So if $25 mil is the cost of a ticket to the playoffs and a SB we happily pay it and adjust elsewhere. That's $25 mil in cap for both Mitch and Foles (or anyone else like him with a similar deal) when in many cases one top QB is now costing teams over $30 mil. IMHO $16-$20 mil a year is a bargain for a former SB MVP because anyone else will cost you just as much or you gamble on yet another inexperienced guy or another Mike Glennon and risk another failure. Pace has some tough choices to make but that's what happens when you blow a top draft pick on a QB who doesn't work out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 (edited) 8 hours ago, soulman said: That's $25 mil in cap for both Mitch and Foles (or anyone else like him with a similar deal) when in many cases one top QB is now costing teams over $30 mil. IMHO $16-$20 mil a year is a bargain for a former SB MVP because anyone else will cost you just as much or you gamble on yet another inexperienced guy or another Mike Glennon and risk another failure. Another thing I haven't really considered is that Foles could be the guy AND Nagy could still pick his guy in the draft. If they are able to get a few cast-offs to come in and compete or guys like Haha who want to play around a lot of talent on defense to boost their value for another deal they might only have depth concerns and 1-2 places of need in a draft. If Nagy can develop a QB then let him pick one in the 2nd if he sees someone he wants, let him get immersed in the offense now while Foles is at the helm, and have him follow Foles around to see how a professional QB works day in and out. The kid might get to sit for two years before playing, but by then he should almost have the system mastered saince it takes 3 years to master it, apparently. This lets him work with a young guy for long-term wins while he has the short-term answer in Foles. Maybe he gets to advance on Fromm's timing and accuracy to the point he can handle the game like Smith did in KC, or he gets the physical tools in Eason and develops the techniques and skillsets that can maximize his tools, or maybe Hurts falls because they think he is also benefiting from the system more than his own ability. I'd love Burrow but feel he is threatening for the middle of the 1st round if he doesn't have a major collapse, if he keeps it up he might supplant Herbert. Jags traded away Ramsey so if Pace wants to cut Amukamara for cap concerns maybe they can swap Foles and Amukamara. We get him off the books still and JAgs get a solid CB who can help whatever rookie they are likely to draft. Edited October 23, 2019 by Sugashane 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topwop1 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 8 hours ago, soulman said: We'd be jumping from a $14 mil cap cost at QB to a $25 mil cap cost with Foles but we won't have Daniel's $6 mil and in all likelihood Long won't be around in 2020 saving us another $8 mil and a few others as well that could save even more. We also have almost $19 mil in cap space now some or all of which can be carried forward into 2020. We may have to sacrifice players at other spots to acquire any vet QB who can complete to Mitch but without a competent passer and leader on offense having the best defense won't matter. We still won't win a championship and never have without one. So if $25 mil is the cost of a ticket to the playoffs and a SB we happily pay it and adjust elsewhere. That's $25 mil in cap for both Mitch and Foles (or anyone else like him with a similar deal) when in many cases one top QB is now costing teams over $30 mil. IMHO $16-$20 mil a year is a bargain for a former SB MVP because anyone else will cost you just as much or you gamble on yet another inexperienced guy or another Mike Glennon and risk another failure. Pace has some tough choices to make but that's what happens when you blow a top draft pick on a QB who doesn't work out. I don't understand how anyone would rather pay a guy like Bridgewater and have $20M+ tied to the QB position with Mitch next year vs bringing in Foles and have $25M tied to QB position next year. If we have the choice between the two I am taking Foles all day every day for obvious reasons. In reality I do no think either are realistic options for us and instead I expect a vet signing (not Daniel) to come in and compete with Mitch next year. Probably Smith or Mariota. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 2 hours ago, topwop1 said: I don't understand how anyone would rather pay a guy like Bridgewater and have $20M+ tied to the QB position with Mitch next year vs bringing in Foles and have $25M tied to QB position next year. If we have the choice between the two I am taking Foles all day every day for obvious reasons. In reality I do no think either are realistic options for us and instead I expect a vet signing (not Daniel) to come in and compete with Mitch next year. Probably Smith or Mariota. I do not think the reasons are that obvious. Teddy is having a great year and has been incredibly accurate. Foles is coming off a major injury. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 4 hours ago, Sugashane said: Another thing I haven't really considered is that Foles could be the guy AND Nagy could still pick his guy in the draft. If they are able to get a few cast-offs to come in and compete or guys like Haha who want to play around a lot of talent on defense to boost their value for another deal they might only have depth concerns and 1-2 places of need in a draft. If Nagy can develop a QB then let him pick one in the 2nd if he sees someone he wants, let him get immersed in the offense now while Foles is at the helm, and have him follow Foles around to see how a professional QB works day in and out. The kid might get to sit for two years before playing, but by then he should almost have the system mastered saince it takes 3 years to master it, apparently. This lets him work with a young guy for long-term wins while he has the short-term answer in Foles. Maybe he gets to advance on Fromm's timing and accuracy to the point he can handle the game like Smith did in KC, or he gets the physical tools in Eason and develops the techniques and skillsets that can maximize his tools, or maybe Hurts falls because they think he is also benefiting from the system more than his own ability. I'd love Burrow but feel he is threatening for the middle of the 1st round if he doesn't have a major collapse, if he keeps it up he might supplant Herbert. Jags traded away Ramsey so if Pace wants to cut Amukamara for cap concerns maybe they can swap Foles and Amukamara. We get him off the books still and JAgs get a solid CB who can help whatever rookie they are likely to draft. I believe that not being able to watch and learn from a competent vet is at least part of what may be impacting Mitch's growth now. Glennon was supposed to be that guy but he was obviously a bad choice and failed so miserably Mitch was forced to play under the worst possible conditions for a rookie QB with as little college experience as he'd had. Under those circumstances both Mahomes or Watson would have been a better pick but who knew. The problem we have now however is that Mitch never got that chance because Pace made a bad choice in signing Glennon and it's also beginning to look like he made another poor choice in drafting Mitch over Mahomes or Watson even though at the time it seemed like the right choice. If this blows up that combo will sit heavily on Pace's rep for selecting QB talent. However, we can correct that error before it's too late by bringing in someone like Foles or another competent vet like Alex Smith (if recovered enough to play) who familiar enough with Nagy's schemes to immediately compete with Mitch and quite possible win the #1 spot. Then Mitch can go finally get his time learning from an apprentice role in practice and during games. This is exactly what I'm suggesting we now use Daniel for a few games and see if that helps Mitch relax and pick up his play by watching. If Pace and Nagy want to add another QB in the draft that's fine with me too. I'd rather see us drop a 2nd on one who could rise to the level of a top tier NFL passer like a Garoppolo than to spend it on an OL we can't use right now anyway and with two 2nds even that could happen if the right guy falls to us as Whitehair and Daniels did. Whether anyone wants to accept it or not this season is already shot as far as the playoffs are concerned. The #10 Vikings are the only good team we've beaten and even that was with Daniel at QB. Mitch has beaten the #25 and #30 ranked teams while losing to #4 GB and #2 NOLA and in each case very, very badly. We're simply not a playoff level team right now. We've also lost two key players from our OL and DL. Both were vocal leader and we miss them. IMHO those losses alone tell much of the story of why we can't run the ball and aren't stopping the run on defense. When healthy Long was our best run blocker and Hicks or best run stopper. In the short run they're irreplaceable. So the goal right now should be to get the offense functional again by whatever means necessary including sitting Mitch in favor of Daniel so we can at least evaluate just how much Mitch's play is impacting things. I have a feeling that process will continue over the next 10 games while Pace and Nagy evaluate moves they need to make in 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 4 hours ago, topwop1 said: I don't understand how anyone would rather pay a guy like Bridgewater and have $20M+ tied to the QB position with Mitch next year vs bringing in Foles and have $25M tied to QB position next year. If we have the choice between the two I am taking Foles all day every day for obvious reasons. In reality I do no think either are realistic options for us and instead I expect a vet signing (not Daniel) to come in and compete with Mitch next year. Probably Smith or Mariota. Foles or Alex Smith would be logical choices based on their familiarity with Nagy's scheme and both having strong credentials as starters during their careers. The problem is both are currently under contract. Both are currently on IR with Smith's entire career in jeopardy. And both are pricey (Smith more so than Foles). So could we even acquire either via trade and what would that cost us having already given up past and future picks for player Pace coveted. Would either Wash or JAX trade them if they're 100% healthy again? Affordability is the least of my worries because Mitch is still on his rookie deal through 2020 and we can't afford NOT to fix our QB problem. We can afford either if we want to and if we can acquire them. Mariota is probably in the next tier down and we already know he's a guy Pace liked before he was drafted by Tenn. The problem I see with him and a few others in the same category is are we actually getting someone whose any better than Mitch and even if Mitch improves a bit we just end up with two Mitch's neither of whom is good enough to win big with. So, Pace and Nagy have their work cut out for them over these next 10 games and in reality neither can afford any more major mistakes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 1 hour ago, WindyCity said: I do not think the reasons are that obvious. Teddy is having a great year and has been incredibly accurate. Foles is coming off a major injury. I'll just come out and say it. I don't believe you'll ever see Teddy Bridgewater in a Bears jersey. He doesn't fit for several reasons. JMHO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ_11 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 I had a dream last night that we traded Tarik Cohen to the Steelers for Joe Haden. Makes absolutely no sense, but if it happens, I'm just putting it out there that I dreamt it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malagabears Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Extreme longshot but might Evan Engram be on the block this offseason? How much would you pay? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 The one TE whose been suggested the Bears pursue before the trade deadline is O.J. Howard. But he also has a hammy injury at the moment AND the Bucs he's not on the market so....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted October 24, 2019 Author Share Posted October 24, 2019 The Bears may need to draft a QB next year. They need to conserve and compile resources, not ship them out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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