In Defense of Dom Capers

[SpeightTheVillain]

Hello All,
I was in a great position to receive a copy of Dom Capers' 1997 Carolina Panthers defensive playbook. (I was told explicitly not to share it). But it could be found readily on the internet if one was so inclined. 

 

I want to preface this rant with the fact that I agree that a defense ranked 21st in points is unacceptable. Whether you want to blame these deficiencies on Ted, injuries, or the overall philosophy of team building here is immaterial to this discussion, although I agree its a conversation worth having. 

I begin this discussion on the eve of the Seattle vs Good Guys because the game, between these two teams last year, is a perfect example of a Dom defense firing on all cylinders.
The one thing I won't tolerate is people claiming Dom Capers is 1) dumb, 2) refuses to adjust, and 3) his style of defense is past it's prime.
So lets begin....

 

1) Facts

The Green Bay Packers have been in the top 10 in turnover differential since Dom Capers arrived in 2009. That's 8 straight seasons.

The Green Bay Packers have been in the top 10 in sacks every year except two (2011 - 28th worst, and 2009, tied - 11 worst) in sacks.

The cover page of Dom Capers 1997 Defensive Playbook reads:

Team Goals:

1. Turnovers
2. Sacks

 

It then lists a series of strong side alignments

 

2) Philosophy

Dom Capers, even to this day, is built on the principles of the first two items of his 1997 cover page. He believes defense is not meant to be passive but rather attacking. A negative offensive play is the most devastaing event in the game of football. I'm not saying a passive defense can't be effective (Tampa 2 Bucs & Bears, Current Seahawks) but as a personal philospophy I completely agree with Dom. It is a known fact that turnover margin to victory is a very strong correlation, .65 by the latest sudy. So having a QB that does not turn it over very often, he has become increasingly more aggressive.

 

Dom Capers wants to confuse QBs. He wants a saftey who can go from the slot to the deep opposite hash. He wants CBs who can blitz.

I am convinced we have all of those.

 

3) At the same time, he is not all those things. The best tape I can point to is the game in 2014 vs the Pats. Yes, he is highly aggressive and asks a ton out of the backend but he can also play simply and attack specific matchups. Specifically matching our Safties on Gronk and attacking thier LG with multiple rushers. He did not play his blitz heavy scheme, and played a more passive scheme on the backend. For the win. Adjustments. (See also 2016 against the Texans for a beautiful scheme). Another apparent adjustemnt is in his 1997 playbook the 4-2-5 was a scheme that took up 13 pages, the 3-4, 47. Times change. So does Dom Capers.

 

4) It becomes clear Dom doesn't expect his team to "line up and win." A successful Dom Capers play is steeped in film study. You can reference such tenet in the famous Superbowl "Spill it Pick" by Clay, or more recently the Micah Hyde INT vs Dallas. There is further evidence of this when Kelvin Beachum is speaking during Clay's "Top 100" players segment when he jumped an audibled toss vs the Jags. Dom Capers expects every single player on the Defense to understand the opposing schemes the way he does. This is certainly a benefit but may be a fault as well.

 

5) He may have his flaws (Not caring at all about yardage, chasing the splash play) but people need to realize--splash plays on defense win games. Especially when you have Aaron Rodgers. It seems to me no coincidence that GB chased one of the most prolific turnover coordinaters in the league the second they knew they had A-Rod at QB.

 

In Summation,

There is definitely a problem with the defense at times. Wherever you want to lay the blame is acceptable to me, whether Ted isn't getting the right players (suspect) or Dom doesn't fit the team building method here (more on point), but I still fully believe in the scheme laid out by Mr. Capers. I am not even trying to cast blame. I just feel that Capers is one of the best defensive minds in NFL history, and we are fully going to see what he, and the D, is capable of in 2018.

I'm excited for the season.

 

[squire12]

8 hours ago, SpeightTheVillain said:

 

1) Facts

The Green Bay Packers have been in the top 10 in turnover differential since Dom Capers arrived in 2009. That's 8 straight seasons.

The Green Bay Packers have been in the top 10 in sacks every year except two (2011 - 28th worst, and 2009, tied - 11 worst) in sacks.

The cover page of Dom Capers 1997 Defensive Playbook reads:

Team Goals:

1. Turnovers
2. Sacks

Since 50% of turnover differential is an offensive generated stat, crediting Capers for it is misleading.

Quick look at takeaways 

2009 2nd

2010 3rd

2011 2nd

2012 T17

2013 T23

2014 T8

2015 T18

2016 T11

 

 

[squire12]

Regarding change.  Over 20 years is more evolution.  Change in game is the issue.

[ThatJerkDave]

25 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Since 50% of turnover differential is an offensive generated stat, crediting Capers for it is misleading.

Quick look at takeaways 

2009 2nd

2010 3rd

2011 2nd

2012 T17

2013 T23

2014 T8

2015 T18

2016 T11

 

 

That actually seems pretty good to me.  IMO "average" in the NFL would be 12th-20th.  The Packers were only below that once, in 2013, and below median in 2012 and 2015.

[TheOnlyThing]

9 hours ago, SpeightTheVillain said:

A successful Dom Capers play is steeped in film study. ... Dom Capers expects every single player on the Defense to understand the opposing schemes the way he does. This is certainly a benefit but may be a fault as well.

 

In Summation,

There is definitely a problem with the defense at times. Wherever you want to lay the blame is acceptable to me, whether Ted isn't getting the right players (suspect) or Dom doesn't fit the team building method here (more on point), but I still fully believe in the scheme laid out by Mr. Capers.

 

A very thorough and passionate argument in defense of the defensive coordinator. If nothing else, bravo for putting forth what seems to be a contrarian view (from the masses) when it comes to assigning responsibility for the Packers' defensive disappointments.

Assuming for the sake of argument that what you posit regarding Dom's basic defensive philosophy being completely sound is correct, do you really believe that a system that demands that (1) players be steeped in film study and (2) expects every single player to understand the opposing team's schemes is a realistic one for a franchise that has prided itself like no other on drafting and developing young players?

It seems to me that Dom's philosophy as you set it out above would work best with more seasoned NFL players, that is the sort of players most likely to be steeped in film study and aware of opposing schemes.

It seems that there is an inherent disconnect between what Dom's system demands in terms of personnel and the personnel he has been working with, and perhaps that is what you are alluding to when you write "Dom doesn't fit the team building method here."

[Mazrimiv]

Regardless of whether the source is young players or poor coaching, every GB defense after 2010 has featured two recurring themes

1. Frequently missed assignments (esp in the secondary)
2. Poor tacking

For myself, those two factors alone are enough to warrant a change at DC.

[spilltray]

Poor tackling is a league wide epidemic due to very limited hitting in practice.

[Stevein2012]

I don't really like the idea of not caring much about yards.  One of the main goals of the teams we play is to control the ball and keep Rodgers on the sideline, we shouldn't just be ok with conceding that.  Dom's defenses have IMO been pretty lucky Rodgers is so ridiculously efficient.

I don't know if it's just a leaguewide issue or worse for us but our D always seems so fragile to me.  If we have good players at every position, everyone always knows what to do, and nobody gets hurt it's great and we can keep up with good offenses but let one of those things go wrong and it goes from good to complete clownshow embarrasment.  I'll take a consistent decent defense at this point.

[AlexGreen#20]

2 hours ago, spilltray said:

Poor tackling is a league wide epidemic due to very limited hitting in practice.

If you read the newspaper clippings from after the second year of the NFL's existence, you would find articles about how players now-a-days don't tackle as well and play with ****ty fundamentals compared to their predecessors of a year earlier. Tackling is fine.

[SpeightTheVillain]

5 hours ago, squire12 said:

Since 50% of turnover differential is an offensive generated stat, crediting Capers for it is misleading.

Quick look at takeaways 

2009 2nd

2010 3rd

2011 2nd

2012 T17

2013 T23

2014 T8

2015 T18

2016 T11

 

 

It is half on the offense not giving the ball up. 

But Dom doesn't operate in a vacuum, he Is more aggressive and takes more chances because he knows the offense doesn't turn it over.