Cearbhall Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, wcblack34 said: I feel like this team has a close loss and at least one absolute clunker left in them. That just seems to be how our team history goes. At this point, 11-5 seems like the floor. That puts us in the playoffs. In reality, we go as Cousins goes. If he plays as a Top 5 guy (like he has the last 3 weeks), I don't know that I anticipate us losing another game. If he plays like a fringe Top 10 QB, then I think we lose 2. If he plays like his historically up and down self, then we lose 3 or 4. This roster is deep and talented enough on both sides of the ball to cover up a few "off" outings from the Quarterback and back into the playoffs in spite of poor QB play. I agree, in reality we go as Cousins goes. That is pretty much the same as saying we go as the offensive line goes because that is the kind of QB Cousins is. I predict the offensive line holds up well enough against the Redskins. I am 85% certain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cearbhall Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Based on the math I did above, it shows an 85.5% chance of the Vikings going 10-6 or better this year. Generally, that is what a team needs to do to make the playoffs. They have a good chance of winning the division if they go 12-4. It looks like a 37.7% chance of them making it to 12 wins or better. That is a very realistic chance. Couple that with the very realistic possibility of the Packers not winning 12 games and there is plenty reason for optimism that the Vikings will win the division. It all starts with turning that 85% chance of the Vikings beating the Redskins into 100% chance by getting it done by the end of the game on Thursday. Doing that would bump those projected odds, given 2:1 odds in each remaining game, of going 12-4 to become exactly even with 11-5 (27.3129% each). It also would give the Vikings a 46.8% chance of making it to 12 wins or better. I would like their odds of winning the division at 12 wins. If the Vikings win only 11 games I would still have to favor the Packers for the division. That is to say, this game against the Redskins is super important. The Vikings better not be assuming a W in this game or any other. Their climb to a division title slopes uphill quite a bit if they don't get it done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Washington linebacker Ryan Kerrigan (elbow) returned to a full practice Tuesday after the team estimated him as limited Monday. Running back Adrian Peterson (ankle) remained out but said earlier Tuesday he expects to play Thursday night against his former team. Besides Kerrigan, the only other change to the team’s report was receiver Steven Sims (toe) from out Monday to limited Tuesday. Quarterback Case Keenum remains on the report with right shoulder and foot injuries, but he was listed as a full participant. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/10/22/ryan-kerrigan-has-full-practice-adrian-peterson-dnp/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 (edited) 15 hours ago, Cearbhall said: Based on the math I did above, it shows an 85.5% chance of the Vikings going 10-6 or better this year. Generally, that is what a team needs to do to make the playoffs. They have a good chance of winning the division if they go 12-4. It looks like a 37.7% chance of them making it to 12 wins or better. That is a very realistic chance. Couple that with the very realistic possibility of the Packers not winning 12 games and there is plenty reason for optimism that the Vikings will win the division. It all starts with turning that 85% chance of the Vikings beating the Redskins into 100% chance by getting it done by the end of the game on Thursday. Doing that would bump those projected odds, given 2:1 odds in each remaining game, of going 12-4 to become exactly even with 11-5 (27.3129% each). It also would give the Vikings a 46.8% chance of making it to 12 wins or better. I would like their odds of winning the division at 12 wins. If the Vikings win only 11 games I would still have to favor the Packers for the division. That is to say, this game against the Redskins is super important. The Vikings better not be assuming a W in this game or any other. Their climb to a division title slopes uphill quite a bit if they don't get it done. The goal is to win this Washington season. I still think the Packers are going to falter at some point, but we'll have to see. Even having 4 out of the next 5 on the road, it's a rather favorable stretch for them. Let's keep the pressure on them Sunday night by winning this game. Edited October 23, 2019 by swede700 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mediumlebowski Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 I agree that as Cousins goes, so goes the team. We've ended up being as QB-driven as any team in the league. When he's on, we're scary. When he isn't, not so much. I live in Virginia now and have been exposed to a lot of Redskins football. They're not good. The whole franchise is dysfunctional starting with the owner, who is universally loathed. It's a shame; they have a long tradition. Anyone attending the game (wish I was) do not boo Peterson or Keenum, please. We're classier than that. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wcblack34 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, mediumlebowski said: I agree that as Cousins goes, so goes the team. We've ended up being as QB-driven as any team in the league. When he's on, we're scary. When he isn't, not so much. I live in Virginia now and have been exposed to a lot of Redskins football. They're not good. The whole franchise is dysfunctional starting with the owner, who is universally loathed. It's a shame; they have a long tradition. Anyone attending the game (wish I was) do not boo Peterson or Keenum, please. We're classier than that. Yep. Keenum gave us one of the most magical seasons in franchise history, and AP was, arguably, our greatest player. They deserve warm welcomes and well wishes! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, mediumlebowski said: I agree that as Cousins goes, so goes the team. We've ended up being as QB-driven as any team in the league. When he's on, we're scary. When he isn't, not so much. I live in Virginia now and have been exposed to a lot of Redskins football. They're not good. The whole franchise is dysfunctional starting with the owner, who is universally loathed. It's a shame; they have a long tradition. Anyone attending the game (wish I was) do not boo Peterson or Keenum, please. We're classier than that. Washington's tradition begins and ends with Joe Gibbs. They were okay before that, but nothing real special, and they've been an absolute mess since. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelKing728 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 This would be a great game for Xavier Rhodes to prove me wrong and get back on track. I hope the defense plays pissed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mediumlebowski Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 This is a classic trap game. We'll find out how good Zimmer is based on the result tomorrow night. There cannot be a letdown against a lesser opponent. They've got guys that can play and want to win. If Zim gets them keyed up and ready to play, vike fans will like it. If they think they can throw their helmets onto the field and walk away with a W, vike fans will not be happy. Wisconsin VS. Illinois. Trust no one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 bet heavy, boys. have some confidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 @Woz, where's the Game Day Thread in the WASH forum? i mean, get your people on this! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mediumlebowski Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 I'm old as the hills. I remember being crushed by the SB IV loss to the Casey Chefs. And everything since. So I always strike a cautionary note, but I'm still thinking something like Vikes 31, Skins 13. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 46 minutes ago, mediumlebowski said: I'm old as the hills. I remember being crushed by the SB IV loss to the Casey Chefs. And everything since. So I always strike a cautionary note, but I'm still thinking something like Vikes 31, Skins 13. But @vike daddy was there for the births of Sid Hartman and Millie, so you're still just a young pup to him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 18 minutes ago, swede700 said: But @vike daddy was there for the births of Sid Hartman and Millie, so you're still just a young pup to him. i watched the Rocky Mountains form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VikeManDan Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, SteelKing728 said: I hope the defense plays pissed. This is my concern, credit to Detroit offense or not for what they did on Sunday, but this defense should not be happy with how they played when they last stepped on the field. Edited October 23, 2019 by VikeManDan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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