Jockeying for the Playoffs

[vike daddy]

San Francisco 49ers 6-0

New Orleans Saints 6-1

Green Bay Packers 6-1

Dallas Cowboys 4-3

 

Seattle Seahawks 5-2

Minnesota Vikings 5-2

Carolina Panthers 4-2

Los Angeles Rams 4-3

 

Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz didn’t mince words about the way he and his teammates performed on Sunday night in Dallas.

“We didn’t show up,” Wentz said, via the Morning Call. “They beat the crap out of us.”

The Eagles are 3-4 and appear to have an uphill climb to the playoffs. They’re a game behind the Cowboys in the NFC East, and last night’s game gives the Cowboys the tiebreaker advantage as well. And the Eagles are two games out of the wild card, where the 5-2 Seahawks and 5-2 Vikings reside.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/10/21/carson-wentz-cowboys-beat-the-crap-out-of-us/

[VikeManDan]

Still right in the thick of things! Let's take care of the Redskins this week!

[vike daddy]

If the season ended today, the Vikings would be in the playoffs. Minnesota’s 6-2 mark puts the Vikings behind the Packers (6-1) in the NFC North. Entering Week 8, the other current NFC playoff field would also include the 49ers (6-0), Saints (6-1), Cowboys (4-3) and Seahawks (5-2).

https://www.vikings.com/news/vikings-squarely-in-nfc-playoff-picture-at-midpoint-of-2019-season

 

if the Seahawks win their next game and are also 6-2, which one of us is seeded higher?

Edited October 26, 2019 by vike daddy

[Krauser]

1 hour ago, vike daddy said:

if the Seahawks win their next game and are also 6-2, which one of us is seeded higher?

It’d come down to the conference record: Vikings are 5-2, Seahawks would be 3-1 after winning in Atlanta. 

They play head to head so if they end up with the same record this year it won’t be hard to figure out the tiebreaker. 

After this week, Seattle still has 2 games with the Niners, road games at Rams, Panthers and Eagles, and home games with the Vikings, Bucs and Cards. They haven’t been that good yet this year (points differential of +5, 10th in DVOA), especially on defense. 11-5 is probably a realistic projection. 

[SotanKing]

I think 11 wins should most probably be enough to qualify for playoffs (not a guarantee this season though are there seem to be lot of competition, especially from NFC West). Looking at remaining schedule -

I think the only game where Vikings are by far clear favorites is Broncos (H). Other than this, most of the games are against decent teams. Lions (H). Chargers(A), Packers(H), Bears(H) are winnable games but not gonna be straight forward. The toughest games where Vikings might not be favorites are Chiefs(Away...toughest remaining game if Mahomes plays), Seattle(A) and Cowboys (A).

[VikeManDan]

1. San Francisco 49ers 8-0 (vs. Seahawks, vs. Cardinals, vs. Packers, @ Ravens, @ Saints, vs. Falcons, vs. Rams, @ Seahawks) Pretty brutal remaining schedule but should secure HFA and the #1 or #2 seed. I see 11-5 at worst.

2. New Orleans Saints 7-1 (vs. Falcons, @ Bucs, vs. Panthers, @ Falcons, vs. 49ers, vs. Colts, @ Titans, @ Panthers) A whopping 5 division games left for the Saints and a huge game against the 49ers. Could easily see them sweeping their divisional games to get them to at least 12-4.

3. Green Bay Packers 7-2 (vs. Panthers, @ 49ers, @ Giants, vs. Redskins, vs. Bears, @ Vikings, @ Lions) I'd argue they really only have 2 tough games left (49ers and Vikings) could see them finishing 12-4.

*4. Dallas Cowboys 4-3 (@ Giants, vs. Vikings, @ Lions, @ Patriots, vs. Bills, @ Bears, vs. Rams, @ Eagles, vs. Redskins) Pretty brutal schedule for the Cowboys, winner of the NFCE will likely be the #4 seed in NFC. I see 10-6 at best.

5. Seattle Seahawks 7-2 (@ 49ers, @ Eagles, vs. Vikings, @ Rams, @ Panthers, vs. Cardinals, vs. 49ers) Big game next Monday night, don't see one easy game on their schedule with the way the Cardinals and Eagles have been playing lately. Will their defense let them down? I see 11-5 at worst.

6. Minnesota Vikings 6-3 (@Cowboys, vs. Broncos, @Seahawks, vs. Lions, @Chargers, vs. Packers, vs. Bears) Can the Vikings win a meaningful game on the road? If they win their remaining home games they'll finish 10-6, getting one on the road would be huge. I see 11-5 at best.

7. Los Angeles Rams 5-3 (@ Steelers, vs. Bears, vs. Ravens, @ Cardinals, vs. Seahawks,  @Cowboys, @49ers, vs. Cardinals) 4 out of last 7 are divisional games. Pretty tough remaining schedule. I could see 9-7 to 11-5 for the Rams.

8. Carolina Panthers 5-3 (@Packers, vs. Falcons, @Saints, vs. Redskins, @Falcons, vs. Seahawks, @Colts, vs. Saints) Assuming they lose both games against they Saints they'd have to run the table to get to 11-5, I don't see that happening with the Packers and Seahawks on the schedule. I see 9-7 at best.

9. Philadelphia Eagles 5-4 (vs. Patriots, vs. Seahawks, @Dolphins, vs. Giants, @Redskins, vs. Cowboys, @Giants) End the season with 4 divisional games, they'd jump up to #4 with a Dallas loss tonight. I see 10-6 at best, NFCE could come down to week 16 matchup potentially like the NFCN.

Every other NFC team is 3-4-1 (Lions - #10) or worse.

*Plays tonight

This is what I'm thinking, right now, in terms of how the NFC will shake out. What do you see differently?

[Cearbhall]

That looks reasonable. The Vikings chances to pass the Seahawks would take a huge hit if they lose the game against them. That would cost them the head-to-head tiebreak and mean the Vikings would have to finish the season with a better record than the Seahawks. That seems unlikely if they lose to the Seahawks. As the Seahawks would effectively have a three game lead with six other games to go. (Be ahead of the Vikings by two games and own the tiebreak).

For the Vikings to win the division they likely need to both beat the Packers and have either the Lions or the Bears beat the Packers. Without both of those two things happening the Packers would win the tiebreak on the divisional record which would mean the path to a division title would involve finishing the year with a better record than the Packers -- a real long shot if the Packers beat the Vikings since the Packers would have a two game lead and own the tiebreak. Like the Seahawks, that would effectively be a three game lead with ten games already accounted for (nine games already played plus the assumed loss in that scenario).

I do think that the Vikings still look good for finishing 11-5 but I'll have to revise that to 10-6 id they lose next week against the much hated Dallas Cowboys.

[SteelKing728]

We really need to win these next 2. If we can do that, we'll be golden.

[Guest]

"Playoffs? PLAYoffs? Don't talk about playoffs!!  Playoffs?"  Jim Mora was a very good coach, but his press conferences were Hall of Fame stuff!  I feel very much like Jim Mora right now.  Let's just beat the Cowboys into the Texas dust.  Playoffs are still far off and a lot can happen.

[Torchezim]

If we defeat the Cowboys and Seahawks, I’ll feel very good about the playoffs.  

[KOTN-93]

On 11/5/2019 at 4:06 PM, Torchezim said:

If we defeat the Cowboys and Seahawks, I’ll feel very good about the playoffs.  

If they win those 2 they likely win out. I like us at home VS GB. The Chargers is like another home game. Id be thrilled splitting DAL/SEA games.

[vikingsrule]

9 minutes ago, KOTN-93 said:

If they win those 2 they likely win out. I like us at home VS GB. The Chargers is like another home game. Id be thrilled splitting DAL/SEA games.

Splitting is fine between those two games, but MN probably has to win out the rest of the way to finish 12-4. Which isnt too daunting given that 4/5 will be at home with 3 of those games being divisional matchups.

With injuries to Thielen and Joseph, not sure we stand a chance against Dallas. Hopefully everyone can get healthy by the Seattle game.

Edited November 8, 2019 by vikingsrule

[JDBrocks]

4 minutes ago, vikingsrule said:

With injuries to Thielen and Joseph, not sure we stand a chance against Dallas. Hopefully everyone can get healthy by the Seattle game.

Don't stand a chance against a team that lost to the Jets? Maybe a tad hyperbolic.

Edited November 8, 2019 by JDBrocks

[vikingsrule]

3 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

Don't stand a chance against a team that lost to the Jets? Maybe a tad hyperbolic.

That game was in NY. The Vikes are going to Dallas to play on Sunday night and need to somehow slow down Elliott with whom at DT, Shamar Stephen and Jaleel Johnson? 

Fine, they’ll play them somewhat close but if Elliott is churning out 5-6 yards per carry, it will be a long night.

[KOTN-93]

15 hours ago, vikingsrule said:

That game was in NY. The Vikes are going to Dallas to play on Sunday night and need to somehow slow down Elliott with whom at DT, Shamar Stephen and Jaleel Johnson? 

Fine, they’ll play them somewhat close but if Elliott is churning out 5-6 yards per carry, it will be a long night.

I've found bad teams tend to have very little HFA so the fact it was in NY doesnt matter to me. I do agree that Zeke has to be the focus defensively. If we shut down Zeke we should have a real good chance. Im not confident in this D at all though.