How To Fix A Broken Offense......

[soulman]

6 hours ago, big_palooka said:

It's interesting because if you remember that preseason thread and the defense of why this Bears team would not regress... they are checking all the boxes.

Attrition - Not as strong under Pagano as Fangio. Missing a guy like Amos and Callahan and even Jordan Howard

Historic amount of turnovers - ball isn't bouncing their way thus far as it did last year

Injuries - they had no major injuries a year ago. Lost a lynch pin like Hicks

QB - Did not take a step forward and in regressing thus fa

Exposure - eventually teams understand how to defend an offense and where they are vulnerable. How to attack the defense and where their weakness lies

Better division - Packers and Lions both showing noticeable improvement. Vikings about equal but arrow up the last 2 weeks. 

Finally, pressure. No playing a last place schedule with no expectations. Riding a jolt from a blockbuster trade. Teams know who they are and are prepared for them.

 

I don't see any major regression in the defense that can't be explained by missing Hicks whose without a doubt the best run defender on the DL and the most vocal leader.  They haven't been able to adapt yet to replacing him especially with Nichols also playing one handed.

The rest is very much attributable to the failure of the offense to control the ball and score points.  No team has a strong enough defense to consistently be on the field the majority of the game because the offense can't even start drives let alone extend them.

Losing Amos was not a major issue.  HHC-D has played well and once again Callahan has injury issues in Denver.

The offense on the other hand has regressed because Trubisky simply can't handle his role.  He's regressed far more than the rest and  taking the entire team down with him.  The problems are not singular but Mitch is by far the biggest problem and an anchor on the offense as a whole.

The rest are challenges every team faces every season.  There's nothing unique about any of them.  Good team adjust to that and keep winning.  So the obvious answer is we are not a very good team right now overall mostly because the offense is among the worst in the NFL.  The bigger problem is I don't see that changing a whole lot over the next 10 games.  This season is already shot.  JMHO

[soulman]

22 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

I would take a shot on Mariota if he’s available for cheap. His upside is limited and I doubt he becomes a good QB, but he seems similar to a young Alex Smith in that he’s been completely miscast and may be able to turn his career around in a more familiar spread offense.

So you would risk having two Mitch Trubisky's instead of just one?

Availability may force us into a second tier choice but will it solve any problems if both QBs continue to struggle becoming competent winning NFL passers?  Seems to me we've been through this in the past more times than I can count on both hands.

IMHO much like the Mack trade it may be time to "go big or go home" as far as fixing our QB issue goes.

Mack completed the defense and opened the championship window.  If we don't do the same offensively that will all become a huge waste of $$$ and draft capital.  This is not the time for playing "what ifs" any longer.  We cannot continue to gamble at QB risking anymore mistakes or this entire rebuild will fall flat and fail.  That's how I see it today.

[beardown3231]

7 hours ago, big_palooka said:

It's interesting because if you remember that preseason thread and the defense of why this Bears team would not regress... they are checking all the boxes.

Attrition - Not as strong under Pagano as Fangio. Missing a guy like Amos and Callahan and even Jordan Howard

How would Jordan Howard improve the defense? If your thought is he would keep the chains moving, he's 19th in the league in rushing this year. He stunk last year. Nagy doesn't run the ball enough anyway.

Callahan hasn't played a snap this year.

Amos = Clinton Dix

I don't think any of this is on Pagano. Hicks is a bully and they're missing him. Smith seems to be disinterested. You also wouldn't have said this after the Minnesota game.

Historic amount of turnovers - ball isn't bouncing their way thus far as it did last year

Okay. I suppose I can't argue this although it's not like those were unforced and teams were handing them the ball.

Injuries - they had no major injuries a year ago. Lost a lynch pin like Hicks

They lost Callahan for a 4 games, Jackson for 3, Mack for 2, Amukamara for 2, Acho for the year and Lynch for a few.

QB - Did not take a step forward and in regressing thus fa

Duh

Exposure - eventually teams understand how to defend an offense and where they are vulnerable. How to attack the defense and where their weakness lies

Their offense wasn't very good last year. Teams don't have an understanding how to attack the Bears defensive scheme. Hicks is out and Floyd blows. It is what it is

Better division - Packers and Lions both showing noticeable improvement. Vikings about equal but arrow up the last 2 weeks. 

They're 1-1 against the division.

Finally, pressure. No playing a last place schedule with no expectations. Riding a jolt from a blockbuster trade. Teams know who they are and are prepared for them.

The last place schedule thing is nonsense.

 

 

[abstract_thought]

1 hour ago, soulman said:

So you would risk having two Mitch Trubisky's instead of just one?

Availability may force us into a second tier choice but will it solve any problems if both QBs continue to struggle becoming competent winning NFL passers?  Seems to me we've been through this in the past more times than I can count on both hands.

IMHO much like the Mack trade it may be time to "go big or go home" as far as fixing our QB issue goes.

Mack completed the defense and opened the championship window.  If we don't do the same offensively that will all become a huge waste of $$$ and draft capital.  This is not the time for playing "what ifs" any longer.  We cannot continue to gamble at QB risking anymore mistakes or this entire rebuild will fall flat and fail.  That's how I see it today.

We already know that Mitch can’t pilot this offense. At least there’s a possibility that Mariota becomes Alex Smith. And if the Bears act quickly enough they can assess that over the remaining 9 games.

The Bears don’t have the resources to go big on any QB trade. They have to get creative in solving this problem.

[big_palooka]

 

1 hour ago, soulman said:

I don't see any major regression in the defense that can't be explained by missing Hicks whose without a doubt the best run defender on the DL and the most vocal leader.  They haven't been able to adapt yet to replacing him especially with Nichols also playing one handed.

The rest is very much attributable to the failure of the offense to control the ball and score points.  No team has a strong enough defense to consistently be on the field the majority of the game because the offense can't even start drives let alone extend them.

Losing Amos was not a major issue.  HHC-D has played well and once again Callahan has injury issues in Denver.

The offense on the other hand has regressed because Trubisky simply can't handle his role.  He's regressed far more than the rest and  taking the entire team down with him.  The problems are not singular but Mitch is by far the biggest problem and an anchor on the offense as a whole.

The rest are challenges every team faces every season.  There's nothing unique about any of them.  Good team adjust to that and keep winning.  So the obvious answer is we are not a very good team right now overall mostly because the offense is among the worst in the NFL.  The bigger problem is I don't see that changing a whole lot over the next 10 games.  This season is already shot.  JMHO

This was all the point I was making coming into the season. Player regression, injuries and a tougher division and schedule. It's all played out thus far.

[soulman]

34 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

We already know that Mitch can’t pilot this offense. At least there’s a possibility that Mariota becomes Alex Smith. And if the Bears act quickly enough they can assess that over the remaining 9 games.

The Bears don’t have the resources to go big on any QB trade. They have to get creative in solving this problem.

All we truly know is Mitch can't pilot the offense right now.  Whether or not it's terminal we can't really say because his issues are mental and not physical. I'd be far more worried if I'd never seen him play well enough to believe he could be "the guy".  I'd also say there's as much chance of Mitch eventually becoming an Alex Smith as there is Mariotta.  There are some obvious similarities in the two and Pace was also keen on Mariotta when he was drafted.  So I wouldn't rule it out but for me it would be a second option but I agree it is one.

Both were probably forced into starting roles too early and have developed some bad habits.  Both could probably have benefited from spending a year learning from the sidelines.  We still have a shot at that with Mitch if we can acquire a vet he can learn from which points the arrow in the direction of a Foles or Smith most likely. I've already listed the problems associated with getting either one not the least of which is both are on IR   Despite that if I'm Pace I'm at least gonna explore the possibilities of trading for one of them even now provided we're certain he would be 100% ready to play in 2020.

If that approach fails then I'd probably prefer a Mariota over other options but we should acknowledge the fact that he may be even more costly than Foles or Smith because he is a young yet experienced UFA.  If we have to pay top dollar for Mariota that pretty much ends any competition for a #1 spot and Mitch's career in Chicago unless it's as a #2.  The question I have and have voiced before is Mariota really a better choice than Mitch or are we just trading off one second tier guy for another?  We really don't know so we're gonna have to depend on Nagy and Pace to suss that out and decide which way to go.

Edited October 23, 2019 by soulman

[TB 1]

33 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

 

This was all the point I was making coming into the season. Player regression, injuries and a tougher division and schedule. It's all played out thus far.

The division maybe a little tougher but i also think that Green Bay is not as good as it's record as their defense has been very turnover lucky. The Bears did beat Minnesota and Detroit looks beatable. Injuries can't be predicted and Hicks was a big loss but the Bears defense had 2 poor games in weeks 5 and 6 last year with Hicks. Even good defense's have poor games. Though Green Bay gets to play the 49ers who looks better then the Rams right now.

I can see the defense rebounding and playing better the rest of the year but not elite without Hicks as they are better then the last 2 weeks. The key is can the offense perform better  as they have been beyond bad this season. If they don't play better then they will win only 7 or 8 games.

[soulman]

4 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

 

This was all the point I was making coming into the season. Player regression, injuries and a tougher division and schedule. It's all played out thus far.

Not exactly when based on what I responded to but then our points of view aren't the same.

Putting aside all else for a minute the Bears biggest struggle right now is a lack of leadership on both sides of the ball and also on Nagy IMHO.  The team is looking for leadership especially from their HC and QB on offense and isn't getting it.

The defense misses Hicks' leadership as much as his play and losing Kyle Long and both his play and his leadership has hurt the OL and specifically the run game.  Injuries to both is not something that could have easily been anticipated especially with Hicks so forecasting a regression based on those happenings is no more than a guess that could be applied to any team any year.

More specifically losing Amos, Callahan, and Howard have had nothing to do with the current issues.

HHC-D has played as expected and isn't a defensive liability, Callahan's been out all year, and Howard would not be fairing any better right now than anyone else and quite possibly worse.  David Montgomery is a far superior RB and also far more elusive and versatile but if you aren't even gonna use him on more than 10 carries a game it's not gonna help the run game.

No one failed to expect a tougher NFCN which in reality is what makes the schedule tougher far more than other games but again most any 12-4 team would see themselves stepping up as well.  I believed we could easily fall back a game or two due to that but now I'd have to think the decline will be worse due mainly to Mitch and Nagy's failure to provide a competitive offense.

Regression to a mean as far as turnovers go was probably predictable as well as defensive scoring but the anticipation of an improved offense would have offset that IF it had happened.  Predicting that Mitch and the entire offense would be this bad so far would have been so far out of the box as to have been an extremely lucky guess.

So at least for me laying claim to all preseason projections of troubles and regression being spot on is quite a stretch IMHO and more likely to be filed under "even a blind squirrel will find an occasional acorn" than some kind of magical prescient vision.  Just sayin' guy.

[BACK2MACKSACK]

The fact of the matter is that we spent a high amount of draft capital to acquire Mitch and I just want him to play the remaining of the games this year just to give this experiment two full years of the starting job. Even if it fails we can move on from him without having any shred of doubt.

This problem we call an offense is going to require much work going forward. Unless we somehow acquire a top 10 starting QB in the NFL, our offense isn't going to magically get better with some vet QB. When I watch games around the NFL I see QB's getting good time in the pocket to deliver throws 20+ yards down the field with consistency and offensive lines actually opening up holes in the running game. I don't see any of that for the Bears. I constantly see the pocket collapsing within a couple seconds, I see no holes being made in the running game. Yeah Trubisky might miss a throw here and there but there needs to be more and better opportunities for our offense to be successful. We need more time in the pocket and for guys to get more wide open.

How to solve this going forward?

Obviously QB is a need but I say be conservative until 2021 and draft our future QB then.

As far as receivers: We really need a legit TE that can move the chains and provide a target in the endzone. Also, to stretch a defense we either need a slot receiver to stretch the seam or just a pure burner to take the top off a defense and keep them from stacking the box like how the Ravens drafted Hollywood Brown. Other than Cohen, we don't have too much speed in our receiving corps. Most of our receivers are of the possession type. Sure we have Taylor Gabriel who's pretty fast but he's simply isn't that good. You see some teams with weapons like the Chiefs, New Orleans, and Texans and you notice that even though we have good weapons, we only have great depth of B and C tier guys. We don't have any gamebreakers on offense and nobody requires a double team.

Offensive Line-the play at this position has been atrocious, arguably even worse than the QB position. No smart team ever gets rid of talented offensive lineman so its not like we're going to get one via Free Agency unless we overpay for some aging vet. This means we have to start spending some draft capital to address the OT position. I know we drafted some interior lineman but we need to start developing some talent at the tackle position. I want to see some clean pockets when we draft our next QB.

 

 

In short, fixing this problem is going to require some tough work by the Pace regime. Unless we see some marked improvement the remaining of this and next season particularly via free agency and drafting, I'm ready to cut the cord with him and hiring a new GM in the midst of next season. Pace really screwed up by drafting the wrong QB and we are seeing the result of it each game. When we draft a QB in 2021 I want an entirely new GM unless we make the playoffs next season.

 

[beardown3231]

 

[malagabears]

Nagy looks like he is gonna be stubborn & clueless. Not good.

[abstract_thought]

2 hours ago, soulman said:

All we truly know is Mitch can't pilot the offense right now.  Whether or not it's terminal we can't really say because his issues are mental and not physical. I'd be far more worried if I'd never seen him play well enough to believe he could be "the guy".  I'd also say there's as much chance of Mitch eventually becoming an Alex Smith as there is Mariotta.  There are some obvious similarities in the two and Pace was also keen on Mariotta when he was drafted.  So I wouldn't rule it out but for me it would be a second option but I agree it is one.

Both were probably forced into starting roles too early and have developed some bad habits.  Both could probably have benefited from spending a year learning from the sidelines.  We still have a shot at that with Mitch if we can acquire a vet he can learn from which points the arrow in the direction of a Foles or Smith most likely. I've already listed the problems associated with getting either one not the least of which is both are on IR   Despite that if I'm Pace I'm at least gonna explore the possibilities of trading for one of them even now provided we're certain he would be 100% ready to play in 2020.

If that approach fails then I'd probably prefer a Mariota over other options but we should acknowledge the fact that he may be even more costly than Foles or Smith because he is a young yet experienced UFA.  If we have to pay top dollar for Mariota that pretty much ends any competition for a #1 spot and Mitch's career in Chicago unless it's as a #2.  The question I have and have voiced before is Mariota really a better choice than Mitch or are we just trading off one second tier guy for another?  We really don't know so we're gonna have to depend on Nagy and Pace to suss that out and decide which way to go.

Mitch's problems are both mental and physical. His footwork and accuracy have been issues since his 1st year as a pro. He's not an Alex Smith. He's not miscast in Nagy's spread offense. He's been surrounded with a solid developmental environment. He simply isn't good.

Mariota was absolutely miscast. He was plucked out of a QB friendly spread offense and forced into a more traditional NFL offense. He's played for a set of ultra-conservative coaches who have never let the game open up. He's had a different OC seemingly every year. His situation is eerily similar to what Smith faced to start his career.

[Sugashane]

30 minutes ago, malagabears said:

Nagy looks like he is gonna be stubborn & clueless. Not good.

I wouldn't say clueless, he didn't say he'd call a GOOD game.

[malagabears]

 

[soulman]

7 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

Mitch's problems are both mental and physical. His footwork and accuracy have been issues since his 1st year as a pro. He's not an Alex Smith. He's not miscast in Nagy's spread offense. He's been surrounded with a solid developmental environment. He simply isn't good.

Mariota was absolutely miscast. He was plucked out of a QB friendly spread offense and forced into a more traditional NFL offense. He's played for a set of ultra-conservative coaches who have never let the game open up. He's had a different OC seemingly every year. His situation is eerily similar to what Smith faced to start his career.

All matters of opinion brother.

Mitch's mental issues are the primary reason both his mechanics and his accuracy are screwed up right now.  Young QBs all tend to have issues with their mechanics initially that need to be worked on but he was considered to be a very accurate passer when he arrived and with the exception of his deep ball he's been pretty accurate in the past as well.  The major accuracy issues are far more current and both Nagy and Helfrich have expressed their opinions on why.  They believe it's all fixable while some do not.

Mariota has not been in the best overall situation for his talents.  Despite that he's done fairly well stats wise but not won enough to be seen as a top tier guy yet.  Could he do better here?  Yeah, he might and then again he might not.  We don't really know but what we can assume is that as a 25 year old UFA he's gonna get some serious attention from QB needy teams in addition to us if we go that route and that will surely drive his asking price above what assuming the balance of Smith or Foles deals will cost.

So Pace has two distinct paths he can take. 

1) He looks for a more experienced credentialed vet to compete with Mitch and quite possibly start in 2020 while Nagy continues to work on fixing Mitch hoping to eventually succeed.

or

2) He goes out and signs Mariota to a long term deal, he starts in 2020, Mitch is demoted to a #2 spot and in 2021 Mitch either signs a deal to stay and compete or departs as a UFA because his rookie deal is up and we did not exercise his 5th year option.  It's kind of a take your pick deal to me if Pace hopes to salvage 2020.