The NFL isn’t rigged but some Refs are corrupt

[VigilantZombie]

I disagree with the title statement. Refs are corrupt and the NFL does it's best at times to make sure the 'money makers' are on full display.

[sammymvpknight]

20 hours ago, LeotheLion said:

So there's no way the Saints are just being more penalized for being undisciplined? Looking at the numbers, the only games that the net penalty yards between the Saints were greater than 50 were in the last 2 games. The first 10 games of the year there was no noticeable difference. If there was a conspiracy against the Saints due to the NRC backlash, why wouldn't it happen early in the season? The first 10 games of the year the Saints averaged just 13 more penalty yards per game than their opponent. The last 2 games spiked that number to 28.

The bolded doesn't make sense to me. If you are holding then the defense wouldn't be sacking Ryan. The reason the Saints probably had 9 sacks is bad line play and the fact that the Falcons DIDN'T hold. It would be like to say Jared Goff had 425 passing yards against Arizona but Arizona didn't have any pass interference calls. How could the Arizona defense be that bad and not commit penalties? It's usually an either or. Or at the very least I don't think there is any sort of correlation between holding penalties committed and sacks given up. 

Here’s the thing...only one Saints opponent  out of 12 is in the bottom half of penalities (the Panthers). So the argument that the other teams are much disciplined than the Saints is far-fetched in my opinion. They aren’t more disciplined...they are only more disciplined against the Saints. What makes this even more absurd is that the Saints are a really good team. Good teams are typically not penalized as much as bad teams, and part of the reason is that bad teams are often in forced into positions to commit penalties. But that has NOT been the case against the Saints, even though the Saints have held leads much of the season. Saints are top 5 in defensive sacks, and yet holding very rarely gets called. It doesn’t make sense. How many times in NFL history has a team had 9 sacks without a holding call against?

Edited December 4, 2019 by sammymvpknight

[jebrick]

On 10/27/2019 at 7:37 PM, Jlowe22 said:

It wouldn't surprise me if it came out that a few refs were a bit corrupt.  But I highly doubt it would be anywhere near the level to explain all the bad officiating.

Primary reason for bad officiating is bad officiating.  After that, it's probably a subconscious bias or being swayed by coaches/players.  Then way at the bottom somewhere, there might be a ref or two blowing a few calls for money.

Fans have been complaining about the refs and saying the game has been fixed for the entire time I have paid attention to the NFL ( 40+years).  We just have more cameras and better angles to judge the human refs.  Some of this is just society not trusting the refs/judges of anything.  I would refer everyone to a podcast by Michael Lewis ( Moneyball) called Against the Rules for more information on this.

Is their bias?  You bet.  There is documented proof of NFL refs showing bias at one time or another.

Do they make some very very strange interpretations of rules at times.  Some of this is the vagueness of some of the rules.  Some of it is trying not to be wrong.  Some of it is just bad calls that are happening very fast.   In the end, the NFL will generally back them because if they do not then the casual fan will lose faith in the game and the NFL loses money.

[Malik]

Corruption is too big of a word for me because of the amount officiating each game it would require to be in on it. I do disagree with the notion that NFL refs are unilaterally these impartial men who just sometimes "get things wrong." I'm sure a decent percentage comes into every game just trying their best to officiate by the spirit of the rulebook without self-inserting themselves into the game. You'd have to be extremely naive to think egos or personal biases don't ever come into play. Or the fact that some refs are vastly different interpretations of what their job actually is which leads to widely different enforcement of the rules game to game.

[Scoundrel]

On 10/27/2019 at 1:30 PM, SwoleXmad said:

 

Conspiracy theorist: I'm an expert in my field I KNOW what I'm talking about.

Skeptic: Proof?

Conspiracy theorist: no.

Where would we be without him? 

[childofpudding]

A big issue is that viewers often let their own biases affect whether and how they think the refs are corrupt. I will give you two examples.

--

1) A lot of fans think that refs are biased in favor of the Cowboys. However, in the last 5 years, Dallas has had a net count of -23 penalties and -436 yards. In that time period, there are 20 teams with a better net count and 23 teams with better net yards. This is per nflpenalties.com.

Can anyone guess who has the best net count of penalties in the last 5 years? I know I would have never guessed it. It's Tennessee. Do you know who has the highest net penalty yards? Indianapolis. Do you think the refs are corrupt in favor of the Titans?? I doubt it.

Here is a link to an image showing all teams sorted by net yards descending: https://i.imgur.com/RVyTe8W.png

--

2) Many fans think that Brady complains every time he gets hit and can get a roughing the passer call just by looking at the ref. However, in the last 5 years, New England has been the beneficiary of 16 roughing the passer penalties. There are 17 teams that have received the same or more in that time period. Again per nflpenalties.com

Can anyone guess who has received the most? I know I wouldn't have guessed. It's the Eagles, followed closely by the Jets.

Again, here is a link to an image showing all teams sorted by roughing the passer penalties, beneficiary count: https://i.imgur.com/rQe6Qrr.png

--

Now, I want you to think about what your initial reaction was to those two examples. Was it, "Oh wow, that's interesting! Really good point"? Or was it, "But...." or "I question your data..." or something like that? Because if it was the latter, then your own fan biases are affecting your view of NFL officiating, and nothing in the way of facts are going to change your mind.

Edited December 4, 2019 by childofpudding

[Malfatron]

24 minutes ago, childofpudding said:

) A lot of fans think that refs are biased in favor of the Cowboys. However, in the last 5 years, Dallas has had a net count of -23 penalties and -436 yards. In that time period, there are 20 teams with a better net count and 23 teams with better net yards. This is per nflpenalties.com.

Can anyone guess who has the best net count of penalties in the last 5 years? I know I would have never guessed it. It's Tennessee. Do you know who has the highest net penalty yards? Indianapolis. Do you think the refs are corrupt in favor of the Titans?? I doubt it.

Here is a link to an image showing all teams sorted

There should be a stat for valid and invalid penalties with additional factors that weigh in game situation. All that should be fed into a black box, and out comes a favortism rankings. 

[childofpudding]

19 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

There should be a stat for valid and invalid penalties with additional factors that weigh in game situation. All that should be fed into a black box, and out comes a favortism rankings. 

You should do it. Call it Pro Football Penalty Focus (PFPF). I'm sure it will be credible and widely accepted on here.

[Malfatron]

18 minutes ago, childofpudding said:

You should do it. Call it Pro Football Penalty Focus (PFPF). I'm sure it will be credible and widely accepted on here.

I will model it after the QBR

[ET80]

1 hour ago, Malfatron said:

There should be a stat for valid and invalid penalties with additional factors that weigh in game situation. All that should be fed into a black box, and out comes a favortism rankings. 

I'm absolutely game to develop and publish this. Create a referee scorecard with game to game and season aggregate data, publish it so the refs who are continually bad at their jobs are tactically exposed in a way that quantifies their poor efforts.

Stats like DVOA weren't standard by the league, but now they are pretty much accepted - part because of value to the numbers presented, but part because they were in our face from several sources; The math, logic and measure was ultimately sound. If we created a measure that is published weekly and provides benchmarks to both good and bad ref performances, it could grow and at least grab attention and "shame" these crews into doing better jobs.

[Slateman]

Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by incompetence.

[MWil23]

23 hours ago, Malfatron said:

There should be a stat for valid and invalid penalties with additional factors that weigh in game situation. All that should be fed into a black box, and out comes a favortism rankings. 

That's my biggest gripe: Not the AMOUNT of penalties that are called against a player/team or for a player/team, but WHEN they are called. I.E. a few years ago New England beat the Browns on the last play of the game/untimed down after Joe Haden was called for DPI (AWFUL CALL too, borderline at best) on a Hail Mary after an onside kick was recovered.

[RabidPanther89]

So what the OP is saying is that refs have their own individual bias, not that the league has an overarching plan for the outcome of games. That I could buy.

Biggest problem for me isn't that the refs get the call wrong. It's their refusal to correct their mistakes. Look at how they refuse to overturn clear pass inference mistakes when challenged. The NFL implemented  a new rule to make the game more fair. And what do the refs do? They refuse to acknowledge it. They have a holier than though attitude. They are willfully ignorant and spiteful on the field.  They throw a bad flag one play then throw a ticky tack make up flag on the other team a few plays later.

I also think that since they are human, they probably don't like being yelled at by coaches and players on the field and I think that probably effects what they call and what they choose to see. However if it bothers them to that degree then they shouldn't be officiating. A coach should be able to yell in their face all day and yet they should still call the game fairly. It's their job as overseer of the game. 

Edited December 6, 2019 by RabidPanther89

[Soko]

On 12/4/2019 at 1:27 PM, childofpudding said:

A big issue is that viewers often let their own biases affect whether and how they think the refs are corrupt. I will give you two examples.

--

1) A lot of fans think that refs are biased in favor of the Cowboys. However, in the last 5 years, Dallas has had a net count of -23 penalties and -436 yards. In that time period, there are 20 teams with a better net count and 23 teams with better net yards. This is per nflpenalties.com.

Can anyone guess who has the best net count of penalties in the last 5 years? I know I would have never guessed it. It's Tennessee. Do you know who has the highest net penalty yards? Indianapolis. Do you think the refs are corrupt in favor of the Titans?? I doubt it.

Here is a link to an image showing all teams sorted by net yards descending: https://i.imgur.com/RVyTe8W.png

--

2) Many fans think that Brady complains every time he gets hit and can get a roughing the passer call just by looking at the ref. However, in the last 5 years, New England has been the beneficiary of 16 roughing the passer penalties. There are 17 teams that have received the same or more in that time period. Again per nflpenalties.com

Can anyone guess who has received the most? I know I wouldn't have guessed. It's the Eagles, followed closely by the Jets.

Again, here is a link to an image showing all teams sorted by roughing the passer penalties, beneficiary count: https://i.imgur.com/rQe6Qrr.png

--

Now, I want you to think about what your initial reaction was to those two examples. Was it, "Oh wow, that's interesting! Really good point"? Or was it, "But...." or "I question your data..." or something like that? Because if it was the latter, then your own fan biases are affecting your view of NFL officiating, and nothing in the way of facts are going to change your mind.

“It’s not just the total penalties or total yards. It’s the TIMING. Sure a pass interference at the start of the 2nd quarter hurts, but it seems [insert team here] gets those calls just when they need them. It doesn’t add up.”

You'll never convince some people.

[sammymvpknight]

On 12/4/2019 at 2:13 PM, childofpudding said:

You should do it. Call it Pro Football Penalty Focus (PFPF). I'm sure it will be credible and widely accepted on here.

The creator of the site would get the Jeffrey Epstein treatment