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mwalker

Draft Approach

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I'm curious as (can't help it) I play all kinds of mock simulators,
how you think we could play a draft theoretically? It'd be easy to say
we need a G, OLB, WR, DT, TE, CB in any order, but I wonder with so few
draft picks, would you focus hard on a couple areas (OL and DL) and solidify
a few positions or just go best player at each position of need?

I think it's an interesting draft.

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I don't know the prospects that much other than a few more common names. As it is though, I also don't have confidence in the FO to draft DB's and  OLB's.  I have always thought that OL can be had in UFA, and are usually proven and a safer bet.  Colbert though, would rather overpay his own draft picks or existing players. That might bode well for Finney who should be starting over foster anyways. If Finney leaves, then there will be a need at OG eventually, but who knows when foster gets replaced or DDC gets injured.

TE though, I am not sure about. Vmac and Vannett look good, but Vmac isn't quite as reliable as some would hope. If he could stay somewhat healthy, why not keep him?

CB, is another one, colbert can't draft. Sutton looks legit though, but imagine how this defence would be with burns and another high colbert drafted CB? Thanks for UFA thats for sure If they did get a legit RD1 CB, that would help if Haden was leaving, but he is under contract for a while so that might wait another year or 2 before they draft CB early. Sutton has looked legit too, so maybe let him have a chance

OLB - don't let colbert and his staff draft OLB.  I don't know what kind of deal dupree will fetch, but if he doesn't get a good offer from other teams, I will expect colbert to sign him to a cap friendly deal for say 3 years. Maybe Skipper will find his way back here, who knows?

DT/NT is probably going to be a need. I would opt for UFA proven player if possible for decent price. I expect someone to pay Hargrave and colbert most likely won't since Hargrave is more of a rotational player. 

WR - who knows especially with the inconsistent QB play this year and OC, it's not easy to evaluate what the team has now. If AJ Green was at a decent price, why not? I doubt he will be at a decent price, quite the opposite, and I would expect many teams to be interested in him. Imagine him going to the pats, packers or saints ? As usual the steelers will  have no cap space to sign multiple UFA's or a big name UFA anyways.   

Any strong centers in the draft? I don't care for pouncey too much, but again, colbert signed him to along term deal and he is here as long as colbert is anyways, so get used to it. 

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I think you try to go out and get a G and maybe even a mid level CB as a #4/5 in FA. Maybe even address DE depth in FA at a low cost.

Then go after OLB, WR, TE in the draft. Although and yes I'm aware he would cost a bit , I wouldnt mind us grabbing Shaq Barrett in FA. I think he would do really well on our defense.

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55 minutes ago, wwhickok said:

I think you try to go out and get a G and maybe even a mid level CB as a #4/5 in FA. Maybe even address DE depth in FA at a low cost.

Then go after OLB, WR, TE in the draft. Although and yes I'm aware he would cost a bit , I wouldnt mind us grabbing Shaq Barrett in FA. I think he would do really well on our defense.

Shaq would be good here but you know colbert will sign dupree for less or more because he drafted him.  These threads about UFA and the draft are interesting but I usually see colbert as being too loyal to his draft picks, thus limiting UFA signings.  This year was different though, but baron is a let down, last year it was bostic. He can't keep missing 50% of the time in UFA, it costs too much as it is a wasted season at the position. 

I would like a top notch OL again, this unit is not playing as well. pouncey  and foster have fallen off.  They are here as long as colbert is though, so just live with it I guess.  Unless some players really break out and there are several other factors that help this team (other teams injuries,  refs, etc) , I don't see the steelers being a real threat next year especially if the 2018/19 ben is at qb, forget it. 

Finney got some snaps last night, but will they keep him next year? I would, he is versatile and a good OL. Banner is making strides too, it's good they are giving these players chances out there to learn what they can/can't do. 

 

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18 hours ago, 3rivers said:

I don't know the prospects that much other than a few more common names. As it is though, I also don't have confidence in the FO to draft DB's and  OLB's.  I have always thought that OL can be had in UFA, and are usually proven and a safer bet.  Colbert though, would rather overpay his own draft picks or existing players. That might bode well for Finney who should be starting over foster anyways. If Finney leaves, then there will be a need at OG eventually, but who knows when foster gets replaced or DDC gets injured.

TE though, I am not sure about. Vmac and Vannett look good, but Vmac isn't quite as reliable as some would hope. If he could stay somewhat healthy, why not keep him?

CB, is another one, colbert can't draft. Sutton looks legit though, but imagine how this defence would be with burns and another high colbert drafted CB? Thanks for UFA thats for sure If they did get a legit RD1 CB, that would help if Haden was leaving, but he is under contract for a while so that might wait another year or 2 before they draft CB early. Sutton has looked legit too, so maybe let him have a chance

OLB - don't let colbert and his staff draft OLB.  I don't know what kind of deal dupree will fetch, but if he doesn't get a good offer from other teams, I will expect colbert to sign him to a cap friendly deal for say 3 years. Maybe Skipper will find his way back here, who knows?

DT/NT is probably going to be a need. I would opt for UFA proven player if possible for decent price. I expect someone to pay Hargrave and colbert most likely won't since Hargrave is more of a rotational player. 

WR - who knows especially with the inconsistent QB play this year and OC, it's not easy to evaluate what the team has now. If AJ Green was at a decent price, why not? I doubt he will be at a decent price, quite the opposite, and I would expect many teams to be interested in him. Imagine him going to the pats, packers or saints ? As usual the steelers will  have no cap space to sign multiple UFA's or a big name UFA anyways.   

Any strong centers in the draft? I don't care for pouncey too much, but again, colbert signed him to along term deal and he is here as long as colbert is anyways, so get used to it. 

I think DT will be a big need. Pay attention to M.Wilson from FSU in the second. 6'5 323 or Leki Fotu from Utah 6'5 335.
There are some very good centers; Creed Humprey from OU, Darryl Williams Miss St, Lloyd Cushenberry, LSU.
 

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I think this draft comes down to 2 huge decisions.  One easy and one hard.

Easy=Cut Moncrief any day now.  Get us our 3rd back.

Hard=Decide which of Dupree, Hargrave and Finney we want to resign.  In the numbers I am crunching to do my mock-offseason, I don't see a way that we can keep all 3 or even 2 out of 3 in a realistic scenario.  Sure, we could cut Foster or Pouncey, but we are not doing that in reality.  We are gearing up for a Superbowl run in 2020.  Ben's last year or two.  We could also extend people into the next century, but that is not really doable with the ceiling of the CBA.  So, the two spots that walk, a low priced FA will come in, but there will be holes.

So, deciding what we do about those 3 will determine our draft needs.  If Dupree leaves, immediate need is at edge.  Hargrave leaving will be less of a blow on depth, but then DT becomes an issue that must be addressed.  Same with depth on the OL if Finney leaves.  We saw what happened when Foster went down on Monday.

Outside of those issues (2 of the 6 picks for the spots we did not resign); the needs I see on this team are at WR (high), DE (depth and age issues), OL (depth and age issues) and a CB to replace Burns who will walk and to protect Haden's age. 

TE is not an issue for me since I think we resign Vannett and with McDonald they are a good 1/2.  Still think CSW will come around, and if not, a blocker in later rounds may be worth a pick.

OLB will be an issue even if Dupree is resigned, depending on the growth/feeling of Weenie Ola.

I also see MLB since I see Barron getting the axe.

 

Bearing all of that, the MOST likely thing I see happening is signing Dupree to a decent contract, and letting Finney and Hargrave get starter money somewhere.  That takes Edge off the table early in the draft.  Being in the "Super Bowl" window, I feel like WR will be taken in round 2.  DJ might end up being a great X for us, but the play of JW has to raise some doubts, along with the depth behind the top 3.  I think we need to take the fastest WR left in mid Round 2 and let him go to work, with JW outside, and JJSS and DJ in the slots for 2020.

Comp pick will have to be the DT to replace Hargrave.  With more subpackage work, he will have to be a bit flexible but with Alualu and Buggs already around at DE, and a FA and McCullers in camp, this guy can wait to play a bit.  Depending on the FA, I could even see this as a DE-project type to cover up the age and injury issues.

The 4,4,6,7 picks should be a mixture of OL, DE/DT (One not taken at 3), MLB, and probably CB.  Unless the right TE is there.  OLB and S would wait for UDFA.

 

Now, if Dupree walks, Edge will HAVE to be the 2nd pick, and WR will have to move down the chain.  But, that would also mean we would have to find money for a FA player.  Unless Ola has some kind of second half that is amazing.

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3 hours ago, kurgan said:

Hard=Decide which of Dupree, Hargrave and Finney we want to resign. 

what are the types of deals you expect them to get from other teams anyways? Finney has been a reserve, with limited playing, so that is the estimate I am most interested in. Dupree has played most of  the 5 years, and there is a chance a team overpays such a player especially with "athleticism and potential etc"

Would you still try to sign Skipper or maybe trade a late pick for him? It's easy to pool later round picks, it might be worth it considering they already had him here and knows he suits their scheme etc

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1 hour ago, 3rivers said:

what are the types of deals you expect them to get from other teams anyways? Finney has been a reserve, with limited playing, so that is the estimate I am most interested in. Dupree has played most of  the 5 years, and there is a chance a team overpays such a player especially with "athleticism and potential etc"

Would you still try to sign Skipper or maybe trade a late pick for him? It's easy to pool later round picks, it might be worth it considering they already had him here and knows he suits their scheme etc

I would love to see them keep Dupree and Finney.  Dupree is finally coming along and I think with Tuitt coming back and Watt playing out of his mind it opens it up for Dupree with singe blocks. I'm concerned that Foster is an injury waiting to happen with his age and would prefer to go younger there. With Skipper we can pluck him off of their PS we don't need to make a trade for him. If we can resign our top two FA then I would definitely go with fastest wr in the second, maybe the kid from Alabama and then DE/DT depth  then rb depth and safety depth. I think we are set at mlb and cb. We have the young mlb from Toledo who is super fast and we have Sutton at cb who can play multiple positions and the rookie from from Michigan State. I think the missing link now however is that fast wr to stretch the field. We don't have that threat so defenses are stacking the box which is killing our running game. It also hurts Juju on the underneath routes and with double teams.

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I think BJ Finney is the smart play. I want Hargrave back but he is gonna get paid. I dont want Dupree back. I get it he has played much better this season but we have seen this movie before. A guy plays his butt off in his contract year, gets paid, sucks again until he is cut and costs the team dead money.

I just dont like the risk there.

I think we gotta move on from Foster and given the year he is having...I'm wondering if it's time to think about moving on from Pouncey too.

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2 hours ago, Duff said:

I'm concerned that Foster is an injury waiting to happen with his age and would prefer to go younger there

he's been really reliable and age doesn't affect OL a much. The problem is, Finney should be the starter and the player to keep. Finney can pull and probably trap as well, Foster is too slow to do either well or at least consistently (well). 

 

2 hours ago, Duff said:

I think the missing link now however is that fast wr to stretch the field. We don't have that threat so defenses are stacking the box which is killing our running game. It also hurts Juju on the underneath routes and with double teams.

This is where AJ Green would help out, but I doubt they go for it.  I mean he is a legit WR1 and none of the diva BS at all ever from what I can remember. Even when he scores, he is old school, no excessive celebrations like the rest of this new nfl. Is there a few other WR1's with speed that will be in UFA 2020?

 

1 hour ago, wwhickok said:

I think we gotta move on from Foster and given the year he is having...I'm wondering if it's time to think about moving on from Pouncey too.

they both should be gone, even PFF has them rated in the 50's, TJ Watt is a 91+. Who deserves to get paid out of those 3 xD. Time to trade and move on, get ready to pay Watt, JJSS etc. . Maybe keep some spare change in case Watt's brother becomes a cap casualty;). I doubt that would happen, and the steelers are out of cap always anyways.

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1 hour ago, wwhickok said:

A guy plays his butt off in his contract year, gets paid, sucks again until he is cut and costs the team dead money.

so do you think dupree is playing better because of the contract year? I know booger brought it up a few times, perhaps he was thinking like that as well.  He is only on pace for about 9 sacks and 2FF, no big deal really.  If he breaks to agains the lesser competition that's the remainder of our schedule, he will get paid from another team unless coldert is ready to overpay another draft pick of his.  Teams overpay pass rushers every year, so lets wait and see.  

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I mean, I sort of do. It's not like he is having a monster year. He might hit 8 or 9 sacks on the season. Shaq Barrett already has 10.

I have gotten this impression at times that Bud Dupree is somewhat lazy with his craft, now maybe I am way off. But If I'm not then it makes sense that he is doing well this year because it is all about the pay day. After he gets paid he wont have to try anymore.

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I think replacing Dupree is harder than you state.  If it were true the Steelers would be flush with OLB talent. 

 

Dupree is very high on QB pressures this season.  He is getting much better when he is single blocked.

I think we could see OG or OC earlier than we would think in this draft.  Pouncey and Foster have looked like crap.

Edited by jebrick

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Dupree is likely going to require 12-14M a year. He isnt worth that.

Also, RB might need to be on the menu... 

Snell out for a few weeks after knee Surgery in his rookie season and James Conner struggles to stay healthy..

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