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2019 Offseason (eating crow)


dll2000

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16 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

Yes I believe so.  I used the manage roster tool on spotrac but I'm not sure if they already factored in the ~$18M in space right now that would get carried over to next years cap. If they did and we cut Long and Davis, as expected, then they'll have approximately $24M available and if not and we add the $18M then that's where they get $42M from, but I could be wrong.  Someone needs to double check this as I'm not a cap expert.

That sounds about right, but that still leaves 15ish players needed just to get to the top 51 for cap hits.

They will be able to work some around I'm sure, likely get a guy or two that are going for one year prove-it deals, etc. Still might be best to trade back some if we go after Foles or whoever as a FA. More picks means more small contracts for a few years, just have to hope the players don't suck. Burton has been a corpse but you only save about a mil when you cut him, Prince can save $8 mil but you have the CB2 spot wide open and nothing too promising ATM stepping in, Patterson saves about $5mil, Gabriel can save $4.5 but who jumps to the #2 WR if Miller can't regain form? After that you're just looking at cheap depth guys getting cut like Shaheen and Braunecker, but with those two you only save under $3 mil combined, so is it even worth it?

 

A lot of questions, hopefully the rest of this season will show what players might be able to step up and who is expendable.

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7 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

That sounds about right, but that still leaves 15ish players needed just to get to the top 51 for cap hits.

They will be able to work some around I'm sure, likely get a guy or two that are going for one year prove-it deals, etc. Still might be best to trade back some if we go after Foles or whoever as a FA. More picks means more small contracts for a few years, just have to hope the players don't suck. Burton has been a corpse but you only save about a mil when you cut him, Prince can save $8 mil but you have the CB2 spot wide open and nothing too promising ATM stepping in, Patterson saves about $5mil, Gabriel can save $4.5 but who jumps to the #2 WR if Miller can't regain form? After that you're just looking at cheap depth guys getting cut like Shaheen and Braunecker, but with those two you only save under $3 mil combined, so is it even worth it?

 

A lot of questions, hopefully the rest of this season will show what players might be able to step up and who is expendable.

Have to assume one of Gabriel or Patterson will not be brought back either.  I'm not sure you need both of those guys.

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3 hours ago, topwop1 said:

Have to assume one of Gabriel or Patterson will not be brought back either.  I'm not sure you need both of those guys.

Which sucks because with an accurate QB Gabriel can take the top off a defense and Patterson can be used as a RB/WR and is an elite kick returner. Gabriel can't make people miss though, so using him on short routes is pretty much a damn waste.

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1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

Which sucks because with an accurate QB Gabriel can take the top off a defense and Patterson can be used as a RB/WR and is an elite kick returner. Gabriel can't make people miss though, so using him on short routes is pretty much a damn waste.

Trubisky down field accuracy was woeful last season.

This season it has been comical.

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22 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Well no ****. In hindsight they obviously wouldn't have leveraged the future to make that deal. I'm saying when they dealt for Mack, perhaps it's because they realized they needed more ammunition.

What else did you want them to say going into the year, 8 months after a heartbreaking playoff loss and into the 100th season? "Trubisky sucks?" By the time they get to the meaningful **** in practices, it's August. Who did you expect them to acquire in August?

Get Trubisky in space? He escaped from the pocket and dropped the ball for no reason on Sunday. He never sets his feet in the pocket, so I'm not sure more throws on the run is helpful. Nagy also isn't doing a lot of gimmicky stuff anymore, so I'm not sure what you're referring to. He did run on the ball on Sunday, and Trubisky still turned the ball over twice and missed plenty of open receivers. The kicker missed a 41 yard kick. Maybe he did discuss it with Tabor and Tabor said he would be fine from anywhere? It was idiotic to take a knee, but he missed a 41 yard FG and a 25 yard FG. That's on Nagy? You're better than this. The quarterback is horrible. It's a ripple effect throughout. If the QB didn't miss two touchdown passes, two FG misses mean nothing.

I'm not defending Trubisky. He's struggling. But Nagy is helping matters, is all I was saying. 

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12 hours ago, big_palooka said:

I'm not defending Trubisky. He's struggling. But Nagy is helping matters, is all I was saying. 

He has and has not, it really just varies by game. Last week Nagy called a good game overall. His lack of aggressiveness in the red zone and on the final play were his two big issues for me, but he has really screwed Tru in a few games too. Vs GB he called 33 straight pass plays, which is absurd for an elite QB, let alone a QB struggling to become a consistently average player. He puts too much on Tru's plate when he only runs the ball a minimal amount of times, he we were the 28th lowest in rushing attempts per game. Sure as hell wasn't because they couldn't stop our passing attack. He also did not use motions, got playcalls in late too frequently (allowing less time for Tru to make pre-snap adjustments and eliminated Nagy from being able to relay info to him), an he is trying to make Tru a pocket passer.

Tru's legs are what made him dangerous last year. Either he could move the pocket, do rollouts to change passing angles to mess with the defense, or he could get outside and make the defender choose tp either stay with his man and give up a 1st on the ground or leave an open WR/TE to try and rush Tru. Those were the things Nagy was supposed to build off of, to improve Tru by using his strengths and developing his weaknesses gradually, but he seems to sometimes hand the reins over to Tru and hope for the best. For a guy who looks like he has lost all his confidence and who is struggling to make the routine passes, well, routine... Last week Tru was the weak link though, I've bashed Nagy repeatedly over the last year and a half for what I see as his flaws but Tru just **** the bed last week. Hopefully they close the book on him and just set up to make Nagy prove he is a creative offensive mind, so they don't waste this defense.

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Still not much sense in looking over shoulders now.  It is what it is......so you fix it.

We loved this roster in August but now we hate it?  I see a few mistakes that are certainly correctable in 2020 with TE being the most obvious other than QB.  Other than that it seems to me it's all more minor tweaks and either getting players to play more effectively in this scheme or you alter the scheme to fit the talent you have.  Maybe Nagy over estimated his talent.

Seems to me how we fix our QB dilemma will have the most impact on whether this year is an anomaly or 2018 was the anomaly.

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What are the odds of a crazy 2019 turnaround?

Honestly most failed plays are 1-3 guys away from working really well.  Most every game win or lose is close.   The roster is talented as a whole.  We aren't all insane in our offseason excitement.    

I didn't see last game, but by all accounts Roquan Smith looked good again.  That's one guy.   Coward has some potential at RG, that's another area of continuing improvement.  

It could happen.  Especially if more guys playing badly suddenly start playing to their potential.   

But you need a light bulb to go off with the QB.  And odds of that are really far away.

But it is possible.   Wake me when/if it starts.

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, dll2000 said:

What are the odds of a crazy 2019 turnaround?

Honestly most failed plays are 1-3 guys away from working really well.  Most every game win or lose is close.   The roster is talented as a whole.  We aren't all insane in our offseason excitement.    

I didn't see last game, but by all accounts Roquan Smith looked good again.  That's one guy.   Coward has some potential at RG, that's another area of continuing improvement.  

It could happen.  Especially if more guys playing badly suddenly start playing to their potential.   

But you need a light bulb to go off with the QB.  And odds of that are really far away.

But it is possible.   Wake me when/if it starts.

 

 

 

Weird **** happens if the NFL all the time. I do think the Bears will improve, but the problem is the division is a murderers row.  

Expectations are the problem now, for me at least. Once I accept that the Bears aren't going anywhere it'll be fun to watch games again just for the game

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19 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

Weird **** happens if the NFL all the time. I do think the Bears will improve, but the problem is the division is a murderers row.  

Expectations are the problem now, for me at least. Once I accept that the Bears aren't going anywhere it'll be fun to watch games again just for the game

The good thing about Bears remaining schedule is they have 4 divisional games left.  Easier said than done, but if they can take care of those ones that brings them to 7 wins alone notwithstanding what happens in the other games and hurts their div opponents in the process.  

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19 hours ago, Danger said:

Foles or Cam are your best options (assuming the Panthers are willing to move on) 

You guys need a bonafide NFL caliber guy who can win now, don't want to hit the reset button while you are in the midst of this defense.

If I put myself in Pace's shoes and think as he may think I have to wonder whether or not he may talk with Wash. about Alex Smith.

My reasoning here is based on a couple of things and wholly dependent upon whether or not Smith fully recovers from injury.

If we assume Pace and Nagy will drag out his development as long as possible before giving up that would mean Mitch will be here in 2020 as well which is the final year of his rookie deal.  We could exercise a 5th year just to assure we have control through 2021 but that option would not be active until 2021.  To date we can probably all agree he's not earned it but it's only an option, not a guarantee.

Alex Smith would serve a dual purpose.  He's familiar with Nagy's offense and spent five years in it taking the Chiefs to the playoffs every year.  His best skill is as a productive game manager which we lack and with our defense all we really need for any QB to be right now.

He would start in 2020 and also serve as another instructor Mitch can watch and learn from in how to correctly operate the offense.  This can serve as that year of apprenticeship under an experienced vet that Mitch has never gotten before and it may help him tremendously.

I would disagree that we can't move Mitch to a #2 spot as long as there is competition with a vet who has been very successful in this offense and from whom Mitch can learn and save his career.  If healthy Smith is a Chase Daniel plus, plus, plus, #1 capable QB.

Cap wise Smith and Foles are about equal at roughly $16 mil in 2020 and both are signed through 2022 also with very similar cap costs of roughly $20 mil with none of that guaranteed.

The major difference is Foles is 5 years younger but if Pace and Nagy are hoping to save Mitch's career or lacking that give Nagy a shot at drafting his own QB and developing him over the next 2-3 years Smith's age wouldn't be much of an issue.  At age 39 he would be looking at retirement after 2022 anyway whereas Foles would still be looking to keep playing somewhere.

In both case Smith and Foles will be out of guaranteed monies after the 2020 season so in the event Mitch does somehow resurrect his career either could be released or traded with little or no dead cap hit.  And if Mitch fails to progress back to a #1 status he's gone after 2020, stays on as much lower cost #2 backing Smith or Foles, or is replaced by an as yet to be drafted prospect.

Given that we can't start from scratch again now that the window is open and we can't assure ourselves that Mitch will ever step up as expected when drafted I'm just looking for fixes to replace him in 2020 hoping he can get his head on straight without ruling him out as a #1 QB forever.  Pace especially will be hesitant to admit he made that bad of a choice before another season has passed so I'm just looking at the same options he may be.  JMHO.

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3 hours ago, soulman said:

If I put myself in Pace's shoes and think as he may think I have to wonder whether or not he may talk with Wash. about Alex Smith.

My reasoning here is based on a couple of things and wholly dependent upon whether or not Smith fully recovers from injury.

If we assume Pace and Nagy will drag out his development as long as possible before giving up that would mean Mitch will be here in 2020 as well which is the final year of his rookie deal.  We could exercise a 5th year just to assure we have control through 2021 but that option would not be active until 2021.  To date we can probably all agree he's not earned it but it's only an option, not a guarantee.

Alex Smith would serve a dual purpose.  He's familiar with Nagy's offense and spent five years in it taking the Chiefs to the playoffs every year.  His best skill is as a productive game manager which we lack and with our defense all we really need for any QB to be right now.

He would start in 2020 and also serve as another instructor Mitch can watch and learn from in how to correctly operate the offense.  This can serve as that year of apprenticeship under an experienced vet that Mitch has never gotten before and it may help him tremendously.

I would disagree that we can't move Mitch to a #2 spot as long as there is competition with a vet who has been very successful in this offense and from whom Mitch can learn and save his career.  If healthy Smith is a Chase Daniel plus, plus, plus, #1 capable QB.

Cap wise Smith and Foles are about equal at roughly $16 mil in 2020 and both are signed through 2022 also with very similar cap costs of roughly $20 mil with none of that guaranteed.

The major difference is Foles is 5 years younger but if Pace and Nagy are hoping to save Mitch's career or lacking that give Nagy a shot at drafting his own QB and developing him over the next 2-3 years Smith's age wouldn't be much of an issue.  At age 39 he would be looking at retirement after 2022 anyway whereas Foles would still be looking to keep playing somewhere.

In both case Smith and Foles will be out of guaranteed monies after the 2020 season so in the event Mitch does somehow resurrect his career either could be released or traded with little or no dead cap hit.  And if Mitch fails to progress back to a #1 status he's gone after 2020, stays on as much lower cost #2 backing Smith or Foles, or is replaced by an as yet to be drafted prospect.

Given that we can't start from scratch again now that the window is open and we can't assure ourselves that Mitch will ever step up as expected when drafted I'm just looking for fixes to replace him in 2020 hoping he can get his head on straight without ruling him out as a #1 QB forever.  Pace especially will be hesitant to admit he made that bad of a choice before another season has passed so I'm just looking at the same options he may be.  JMHO.

Alex Smith would be a good option but I am not trading for him under his current contract.  If Washington waived him and he becomes a FA then sure sign him to a 1-year deal as a mentor/backup who can start if needed, but he has a lot of questions marks right now with his health and if he will actually ever play again.  Trading for him under the current conditions is a huge risk to take on for a guy with injury concerns and who will be 36 years old by the start of next season and I am not sure Pace will be given the leeway from upper management to take on a multi year QB contract in 2020 in what could be his last year as Bears GM if things don't get turned around.

I also think it's very risky to exercise Mitch's option year without knowing if he is good enough to be the starter beyond 2020.  If they do that then he is not going to be riding pine behind anyone IMO.

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