call me crazy but....

[Chrissooner49er]

20 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

Same, which is why it was the easiest to describe. 

But I like @oldman9er's philosophy. Let's make sure we all enjoy the ride. 

Indeed. I actually impressed my wife with my composure when we lost in the playoffs due to Kyle Wilson's ineptitude. I stated that I had enjoyed the season and the previous playoff win and perhaps we'll do better next year. She thought I would be angry for the next day or so.

[J-ALL-DAY]

36 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

I don't share in this concern. I think this is a psychological thing where it looks like there are a lack of big plays because of his yardage totals, but that's because we go up so quickly that we're no longer throwing the ball by the end of the 3rd quarter. 

Here's Garoppolo's pass attempts by quarter this season:

1st: 52 (we typically defer and kick first)

2nd: 64

3rd: 50 (we typically get the ball first this quarter)

4th: 23

 

The 49ers are dead last in 4th quarter pass plays (24 in total) and it's not even close. The Vikings are 31st with 43 and New England is 30th with 50. The 49ers are the only team in the league to run fewer than 100 second half pass plays. We've run 77 (Jimmy's attempts plus 4 sacks). The next closest team is the Raiders with 103.

It only looks like we are unable to move the ball in the air because we have yet to have a real need to do it. And there's some definite "let's not put Jimmy in harm's way" without both starting tackles in there as well. 

Jimmy is currently on pace for 432 pass attempts on the year. That's a very low number in today's NFL. That number jumps up to 530 if you prorate only the first half numbers. 

 

Have some faith, friends. Jimmy and the passing game will be there when it's needed.

I'm not quite sure what you were trying to show here? 

In the playoffs generating big passing plays is huge. Heck, during our run with Harbaugh, we had a very good defense, good running offense and a passing offense that generated enough big plays. Simply put we are not even attempting throws that threat a defense vertically. And of course, we have still been very successful despite it, but that is something to watch as the season progresses. I suspect that changes once we get all our horses back, but if not? Then that is one potential area of concern in the playoffs. 

[Forge]

I actually commented on his lack of downfield throws on this weeks' podcast. I believe it was 8.4%, 31st in the NFL when I checked it. 

However, and this is a big however, there are a couple of things to remember. One, we are without both starting tackles and we are somewhat at the mercy of our circumstances. I am hoping that once McG and Staley are back, we start attacking down the field a little bit more because we know that our line can sustain a 7 step drop. 

Secondarily, and this is also as important, while we are not throwing the ball down the field, we are somehow still 10th in explosive pass play percentage at 10%. This is obviously because Shanny's scheme as he is getting guys with large chunks of separation that result in a ton of YAC on an intermediate throw. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

I actually commented on his lack of downfield throws on this weeks' podcast. I believe it was 8.4%, 31st in the NFL when I checked it. 

However, and this is a big however, there are a couple of things to remember. One, we are without both starting tackles and we are somewhat at the mercy of our circumstances. I am hoping that once McG and Staley are back, we start attacking down the field a little bit more because we know that our line can sustain a 7 step drop. 

Secondarily, and this is also as important, while we are not throwing the ball down the field, we are somehow still 10th in explosive pass play percentage at 10%. This is obviously because Shanny's scheme as he is getting guys with large chunks of separation that result in a ton of YAC on an intermediate throw. 

When Jimmy G does throw past 20 yards, he's been the most accurate QB in the league on those such throws. Heck, had a few to Kittle last game. But yeah, a lot of it is just Shanahan being a genius like last week with his screen plays that went for 10+ yards damn near every single time. 

The OL being without the two starting tackles is certainly a factor. Like I mentioned on Sunday, Shanahan took blame for Skule being put in a one on one situation with Bruce Irvin. That should tell you everything you need to know to how much Shanahan has game planned around the 4th and 5th string tackles. 

[clarkfn2284]

3 hours ago, 757-NINER said:

The thing is, this isn't 1992 anymore. The game has changed. Is a great defense and a stout running game enough to win it all in todays game?? The Rams were in a similar position last year. Then Gurley got hurt, they couldn't run the ball effectively and their offense came to a stretching halt against a great defense in the Pats. And that defense is even better this year. So while I realize would could ride the defense and running game to get there. Eventually we're going to face a defense that will neutralize the our run. And then it will be on Jimmy's shoulders to deliver. Will he or will he pull a Goff?? That is the question.

You guys act like the Patriots were not just in the Super Bowl with a QB that dinks and dunks and takes what the defense gives the offense. Drew Brees doesn't throw downfield either.

How do we know that we will face  defense that will neutralize the run? We haven't yet. Fact is we do not know. The Saints are the only defense on the schedule that appears to be stout against the run, but Shanahan is the best play caller in the game so where does the straw finally break? We just do not know. A lot of assuming going on.

[clarkfn2284]

3 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

Thank you for elaborating, and no - it isn't. Teams have turnovers. Great teams overcome them.

2018 - Through 7 games in the regular season, Tom Brady had 7 INTs (same as Garoppolo this year). In the playoffs, he averaged one turnover a game. He didn't have the level of defense or run game we currently have. In fact, since our defense currently compares favorably with the 2000 Ravens, the best defense this century, it should be understood that it will always be the case in all of these.

2016 - Brady was incredible in the regular season, but averaged 1 turnover per game in the playoffs when the games counted.

2015 - Peyton Manning averaged 2 turnovers per game in the regular season and was so bad that he was left on the bench for Brock Osweiler, even when he returned to health. He only had one turnover in the playoffs, but the defense carried that team to a title.

2014 - Tom Brady averaged over 1 turnover per game in the playoffs. 

2012 - Joe Flacco averaged 1 turnover per game in the first 7 games of the season and miraculously had none in the playoffs. 

2011 - Eli Manning averaged 1 turnover per game in the first 7 games of the season but managed to stay under that in the playoffs. 

2010 - Rodgers averaged over 1 turnover per game in the first 7 games of the season, but managed only 2 in 4 games in the playoffs. 

 

So, the two quarterbacks who didn't look like Jimmy through 7 games nor averaged one turnover a game in the playoffs were Nick Foles in 2017 (who didn't play 7 regular season games) and Russell Wilson in 2013. 

Again, none of those teams have the defense that we do. Our defense allows fewer than 3 points per game off turnovers. None of those teams even come close to approaching our running game. And that's not even really a projection. We may pass some of those teams' rushing totals for the season in our next game or two. 

Two things that work well for teams in the playoffs- strong running games and defenses. And as for turnovers, if Joe Flacco and Eli Manning can cut back when it matters, then really anyone can. 

So no - Jimmy Garoppolo's one INT per game through 7 regular season games doesn't concern me in the slightest, especially when we are outscoring teams by an average score of 29.6 - 11.

Absolutely this. Really good teams can handle mistakes. This defense is other worldly and is more than capable of being leaned on. Mind you, we still have 9 more games to see if the pass offense evolves. It's a little early to worry about this stuff. We have this obsession with down field passing when the Patriots and Saints have made a lifetime of success taking what is given to them. Meanwhile, Green Bay like to chuck it downfield left and right and they have definitely under performed when it counts.

 

This morning Kyle was on KNBR and was asked if he wants to see more downfield passing or more taking what the defense offers. He chose the latter and for good reason. You cannot force things that aren't there. The mistakes we see Jimmy make are him forcing things that ae not there. I'm all for taking what is given and eliminating the mistakes that are caused by forcing it.

[N4L]

1 hour ago, Pandomonium said:

put me in group B

 

well then why tf did you make this thread

[757-NINER]

26 minutes ago, clarkfn2284 said:

You guys act like the Patriots were not just in the Super Bowl with a QB that dinks and dunks and takes what the defense gives the offense. Drew Brees doesn't throw downfield either.

How do we know that we will face  defense that will neutralize the run? We haven't yet. Fact is we do not know. The Saints are the only defense on the schedule that appears to be stout against the run, but Shanahan is the best play caller in the game so where does the straw finally break? We just do not know. A lot of assuming going on.

And who is the Pats QB?? Oh yea...that guy with the last name Brady. The guy who has made a HOF career out making big throws at crucial moments in big games. Jimmy G is no Tom Brady. Nor is he Drew Brees. These guys are proven...been through the fire. Jimmy hasn't. I think its wishful thinking at this point to suggest he WILL perform like those QBs under similar circumstances. We just don't know at this point. And I'm not in the habit of assuming its going to all come together for him because everything else around him is positioned for him to. The Rams just bottled up our run game a couple of weeks ago. Granted our defense was suffocating their offense. But there could come a time where the defense and the run game dont perform up to their usual standards. Then its on the passing offense to step up and make plays.

People keeping bringing up the Pittsburgh game like it was some huge test he aced. That team is 3-5 and the defense is a shell of its former self. That one game didn't sway me. 

Now the three game stretch where we face Green Bay, NO and Baltimore will paint the picture more clearer for me personally. But at this moment, I think assuming Jimmy G will perform at the level of a Brady or Brees, on the biggest stage, and against top tier teams is just pure fandom. He hasn't had to yet so I'll wait to reserve judgement until he is asked to. 

[Forge]

6 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

People keeping bringing up the Pittsburgh game like it was some huge test he aced. That team is 3-5 and the defense is a shell of its former self. That one game didn't sway me. 

 

Only part of your post I kind of take issue with. That Steelers defense is not a shell of itself, and certainly not when we played it. It is still a top 10 defense by dvoa this season, and we did move the ball at will (not withstanding a billion turnovers). Not sure Jimmy was all that great, but the offense moved the ball successfully against a team that actually has a solid defense. 

[Chrissooner49er]

5 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

And who is the Pats QB?? Oh yea...that guy with the last name Brady. The guy who has made a HOF career out making big throws at crucial moments in big games. Jimmy G is no Tom Brady. Nor is he Drew Brees. These guys are proven...been through the fire. Jimmy hasn't. I think its wishful thinking at this point to suggest he WILL perform like those QBs under similar circumstances. We just don't know at this point. And I'm not in the habit of assuming its going to all come together for him because everything else around him is positioned for him to. The Rams just bottled up our run game a couple of weeks ago. Granted our defense was suffocating their offense. But there could come a time where the defense and the run game dont perform up to their usual standards. Then its on the passing offense to step up and make plays.

People keeping bringing up the Pittsburgh game like it was some huge test he aced. That team is 3-5 and the defense is a shell of its former self. That one game didn't sway me. 

Now the three game stretch where we face Green Bay, NO and Baltimore will paint the picture more clearer for me personally. But at this moment, I think assuming Jimmy G will perform at the level of a Brady or Brees, on the biggest stage, and against top tier teams is just pure fandom. He hasn't had to yet so I'll wait to reserve judgement until he is asked to. 

Count me a fan, then. Does that mean you aren't? Hey, legitimate question with the way you phrased that.

Actually, you did kind of judge him in the previous sentence as well as those who are 'pure fandom'. So judgement wasn't actually reserved in that post. 

[Forge]

Just now, Chrissooner49er said:

Count me a fan, then. Does that mean you aren't? Hey, legitimate question with the way you phrased that.

Fandom was probably a poor word choice on his part. I think that he probably meant something more akin to "pure homerism". 

[clarkfn2284]

9 minutes ago, 757-NINER said:

And who is the Pats QB?? Oh yea...that guy with the last name Brady. The guy who has made a HOF career out making big throws at crucial moments in big games. Jimmy G is no Tom Brady. Nor is he Drew Brees. These guys are proven...been through the fire. Jimmy hasn't. I think its wishful thinking at this point to suggest he WILL perform like those QBs under similar circumstances. We just don't know at this point. And I'm not in the habit of assuming its going to all come together for him because everything else around him is positioned for him to. The Rams just bottled up our run game a couple of weeks ago. Granted our defense was suffocating their offense. But there could come a time where the defense and the run game dont perform up to their usual standards. Then its on the passing offense to step up and make plays.

People keeping bringing up the Pittsburgh game like it was some huge test he aced. That team is 3-5 and the defense is a shell of its former self. That one game didn't sway me. 

Now the three game stretch where we face Green Bay, NO and Baltimore will paint the picture more clearer for me personally. But at this moment, I think assuming Jimmy G will perform at the level of a Brady or Brees, on the biggest stage, and against top tier teams is just pure fandom. He hasn't had to yet so I'll wait to reserve judgement until he is asked to. 

The comparison is not to those players. It is to the offense and the style of play. They win regularly without stretching the field and have done so for a very long time. Here is the thing, we are basically penalizing Jimmy for something he hasn't even had the opportunity to attempt. We have not seen him in "the moment". We only have what we have. That being the case, is it really fair to penalize him for not having a "moment" where he made a huge game winning throw in a crucial game at a crucial point? It's grasping at straws and really completely subjective because he has won games for the team. He was primarily responsible for the Jaguar win and the Steeler win. Criticize it once it happens.

What do you do if that three game stretch comes and goes and he still doesn't have to "win the game" for the team? Then what? Here is what we do know. He is 15-2 as a starter, he has shown more than a capable ability to throw into tight windows and down field. We also know that there are a few decisions in every game that are suspect. He isn't the first QB to do it and wont be the last. In fact, the two mentioned above have their fair share of bad decisions in games as well. I really don't think we can assume at this point that he will shrink in the moment.

We are nit picking at something that may not even really be an issue. Why must we create a problem?

[y2lamanaki]

6 minutes ago, Forge said:

Fandom was probably a poor word choice on his part. I think that he probably meant something more akin to "pure homerism". 

I think the same thing. 

But that said, consider my beliefs "pure homerism." I have watched him play, watched him do things few others can do, and have watched him go 15-2 as a starter. At some point, that matters.

(And so does Kyle Shanahan)

[clarkfn2284]

3 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

I think the same thing. 

But that said, consider my beliefs "pure homerism." I have watched him play, watched him do things few others can do, and have watched him go 15-2 as a starter. At some point, that matters.

(And so does Kyle Shanahan)

Agreed. We tend to forget that the guy who matters knows more than we do here. Kyle does not have any trepidation to have Jimmy win the game and that means a ton to me. He has seen it more than we have and you are correct that we have seen him do things others cannot.

I get at 7-0 that it becomes a situation where we look for flaws, partially because it is a bit unknown to us at this point given the recent history, but it is ok to look at the team and say, "Yeah this team is really good and has minimal flaws." Reality is that every team has a flaw. It's about disguising them the best when it matters.

[Pandomonium]

2 hours ago, N4L said:

well then why tf did you make this thread

because I am CAUTIOUSLY optimistic. 
but not stupid enough of a fanboy to think everything is just wonderful