When should Drew Lock start games this year?

[Broncofan]

Let’s look at what we know about Lock:

-Elway passed on him at 1.10

-Passed again at 2.41 

-Put him on IR return with a 4-6 week injury with 2 weeks left in the preseason.

-Has delayed a return to practice 3 weeks after his earliest date. 
 

Lock’s tools are his greatest asset.   His skills analysis showed there was plenty of work to do.  His progress to date both pre-draft and with DEN clearly gave Elway pause at giving him the earliest return ETA not just once but twice in-season.
 

He’s clearly our best shot at future legit QB.   Really he’s our only shot on the roster.  To say anything more is just home team projection based on hope.   Nothing more.  Which is fine.  But let’s just admit what it is and move on.   It’s also why Lock absolutely needs to play significant game action in 2019 - to see if he’s making any significant progress.  
 

With this OL and cast it’s going to be tough to expect immediate success let alone in a rookie year with his areas needed for growth.  But you want to see better footwork, read progression and ability to deal with pressure (moving with eyes up).   It’s still fair to expect progress in those areas.  We’ll see in late Nov-Dec (hopefully). 

Edited November 3, 2019 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

43 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Has delayed a return to practice 3 weeks after his earliest date. 
 

Lock’s tools are his greatest asset.   His skills analysis showed there was plenty of work to do.  His progress to date both pre-draft and with DEN clearly gave Elway pause at giving him the earliest return ETA not just once but twice in-season

Disagree, does the delay say more about Locks development, or what the Broncos goals are in the 2020 draft? Elway went BPA in the draft which he always got killed for and still landed his guy. Golf Clap... Daniel Jones was 1a, in this offense for me Drew Lock was 1B. Didn't scout Kyler Murray because I always though Arizona wanted him since I saw that video of Kliff.

Once Juwan James comes back after the bye hopefully against the Chargers, until then we do the 3 game tank mode for draft position .

Raiders in 2014 drafted Carr in 2015 they still had a top 4 pick. Denver has the same approach. 

Edited November 3, 2019 by thebestever6

[thebestever6]

58 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Passed again at 2.41 

This is also pointless to put in your facts presentation if they already had a deal in place with Cincinnati for 42 before making the Risner pick what does it matter that they passed on him here?

My "theory," Lock was their top ranked QB in this draft along with Jones, Risner was their BPA so pick him first and have Lock check his ego at the door and earn his keep here.

Yes it's true and factual but completely irrelevant to any relevant debate. We all love Risner, I love fants ceiling, I also love Drew Lock at pick 42. 

Edited November 3, 2019 by thebestever6

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

This is also pointless to put in your facts presentation if they already had a deal in place with Cincinnati for 42 before making the Risner pick what does it matter that they passed on him here?

My "theory," Lock was their top ranked QB in this draft along with Jones, Risner was their BPA so pick him first and have Lock check his ego at the door and earn his keep here.

Yes it's true and factual but completely irrelevant to any relevant debate. We all love Risner, I love fants ceiling, I also love Drew Lock at pick 42. 

It's irrelevant to you because you are seeing the best-case.   Honestly, that's fine but let's call it what it is.   It's just not anything more than based on hope.  Which is fine, because honestly the org could use some when it comes to QB.  It's just not supported by any hard facts (and before you point to the college stats, they are truly meaningless - the college stats for all the bust picks look shiny, too - it's all selection bias.  And it's why no team uses college stats as any factor in QB evaluation - they look at the skills, projectibility, and developmental potential / readiness to help / ability to learn).      You can try to tease selected data, but the overall picture is impossible to ignore.  Lock's our only hope, and he's got the tools to succeed.   He's also got major issues and a developmental curve so far that don't speak to any certainty for 2020, and could very well spell his doom (my concern to be transparent).   It's why getting him some 2019 on-field time as critical so we see how well he is progressing.   Until then, it's all just hope and projection - and let's face it, Elway's done nothing to deserve any benefit of the doubt when that's all we have to go on with QB's.

Edited November 3, 2019 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

Elway's done nothing to deserve any benefit of the doubt when that's all we have to go on with QB's.

You're right tbd

[Scoundrel]

Should have thrown him in with Buffalo but that isn’t happening it looks like. Redskins are doing it with Haskins. Let’s see how that onslaught goes.

[thebestever6]

3 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Should have thrown him in with Buffalo but that isn’t happening it looks like. Redskins are doing it with Haskins. Let’s see how that onslaught goes.

Does Buffalo have much of a pass rush? Their secondary seems where it's at

[Scoundrel]

Just now, thebestever6 said:

Does Buffalo have much of a pass rush? Their secondary seems where it's at

No. But against our tackles Wofford would have a pass rush

[thebestever6]

11 minutes ago, Counselor said:

No. But against our tackles Wofford would have a pass rush

🤣🤣 even with James back not saying he will be just saying Vic said injury isn't as serious as first time around. 

[Cutler06]

Realistically, we have no idea what we have on Lock, he could win a game or he could bust. However with Allen we know he can be taken out of a game so it seems obvious to me, we’re tanking. We’re not going to give Lock a shot at winning a game and dropping us to a 7-10th spot in the draft when we have a chance at a top 3-5 pick

[Broncofan]

17 hours ago, Cutler06 said:

Realistically, we have no idea what we have on Lock, he could win a game or he could bust. However with Allen we know he can be taken out of a game so it seems obvious to me, we’re tanking. We’re not going to give Lock a shot at winning a game and dropping us to a 7-10th spot in the draft when we have a chance at a top 3-5 pick

I don't think Elway's tanking nearly as much as he's trying to control the PR narrative.   Playing Lock for DET/OAK gives the best chance of having 2 D's who are mailing it in (week 17 OAK could be playing for a playoff spot, or be eliminated - the 2nd scenario is where they pack it in).   I agree with @BroncosFan2010's take that Elway is very aware of the QB choice hot seat he's on, and so he's trying to craft the easiest start as priority #1 - and not getting as much info as possible on what they have - because the info is public if it's game tape.  

Frankly, though, if Lock isn't ready at this stage, I don't think even those 2 games are enough to get a good idea of where he's at.   My biggest issue with that is that struggles with 2 games is far more likely if he's not played in over a year - even good QB's (who we know have NFL level talent) have big-time rust.    Jimmy G & Darnold looked abysmal their first few games back - and now they look very functional.    For a rookie, the 1-2 game test is more likely to be fraught with just adapting to game speed.   

I prefer that we see as many games as possible from Lock - because struggles are pretty much what we should expect to see - but more games shows how his learning curve progresses.    Get him 4-5 games, you have a much better idea of how much he learns and adapts with game reps.   He struggles for 2 games, you have fewer games to see if the adjustment starts to happen.   Again, the more games you give him to adapt - the less likely you are going to run into SSS errors.   

I'd be surprised if that's what happens, though, given Elway's posturing and the crazy "false positive/negative" argument - that's the reason you play a guy *more* games, not fewer.   But, if Lock is starting, it's going to be announced today.   More likely, he gets activated, and he's the backup.   I wish it wasn't the case, but that seems the most likely.   Hoping I'm wrong here.   

Side note - if the Broncos don't announce Lock is the starter - then the 10K+ no-show scenario comes into play.   Honestly, that might be for the best, Ellis needs a wake-up call in a huge way.

Edited November 26, 2019 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

With the news that Lock's getting 3/4 of the practice reps, seems like Elway & co. are finally coming around to letting Lock play.  Hallelujah.

What's interesting is that Elway's laying the cover to set modest expectations for present-year play.  Which IMO is entirely reasonable. 

 

 

It also supports @BroncosFan2010 's belief that Elway hesitated on the call to avoid early struggles and then pressure on the pick.  Which IMO is unavoidable, given how bad our QB situation is.   And again, going into 2020 with no information or game evaluation is far worse IMO.   As long as the team can see progress in areas he should improve on (footwork, read progression, keeping eyes up with pressure), even if Lock has problems adjusting to NFL game speed, then there's hope to work with.  And again, his chances of playing better vs. DET / OAK are just far better if he isn't thrown into the deep end then, but now.   The expectations shouldn't be that Lock plays at a high level now - it's that we see some progress in some areas as he gets his feet wet.

I still have major concerns that Lock's weaknesses will prevent him from working out long-term - they're the hardest to fix.  But I would also say that struggles in year 1 wouldn't shut the door on his future with us, either.   It's the progress he shows that will tell the tale on whether they should pass on early draft capital (and again, given Elway's links to Herbert, I'm a big "pass" on that front, even if I'm not sold on Lock).   In that respect, the more games the better.  

Edited November 28, 2019 by Broncofan

[lomaxgrUK]

Ryan Harris, the former Bronco OT, has said he's heard from multiple team sources the plan is to start Lock on Sunday.

[Scoundrel]

7 minutes ago, lomaxgrUK said:

Ryan Harris, the former Bronco OT, has said he's heard from multiple team sources the plan is to start Lock on Sunday.

Good hopefully we get a good 5 game sampling size to determine the future of the position going forward.

[French Fan]

8 minutes ago, lomaxgrUK said:

Ryan Harris, the former Bronco OT, has said he's heard from multiple team sources the plan is to start Lock on Sunday.

Mote than Drew Lock ready or not. The 82 yds performance by Brandon Allen last Sunday push FO to make a switch. He can't be worse