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Jimmy Garoppolo Appreciation Thread


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6 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Okay, so let's take Shanny and Lynch at their words and Jimmy is our QB next year. How do you prefer to upgrade the back up QB situation and what moves help improve the offense? This was a top 7 offense in 2019, can it get to that level or even better next year? If so, how? 

You have to restructure Jimmy, which ties him to the team for longer. Otherwise, you're pretty capped. Either the offensive line takes a huge hit when we can't re-sign Trent, or you lose several other pieces which just eats at your overall roster depth. Either way, the team is worse, Jimmy can't carry the team and you're just spinning tires in the mud. So you have to free up space to give Jimmy the best team around him. If you don't free up as much money as possible, the idea of then putting more money toward a position that may or may not play because your QB can't stay healthy is problematic. We can't afford to pay 7 million for a back up like the Raiders did...but if Andy Dalton took a below market deal to go to Dallas at only 3 million and Winston took below market to go to New Orleans, so maybe we can get someone to buy into that. Best case would maybe Alex since he has history here, but I'd guess that the most likely scenario would be Matt Schaub who I am assuming would still want to play? I think you're looking at guys like that. Matt Schaub, Hoyer and Barkley could obviously make sense. Joe Flacco if you want a guy that doesn't have familiarity with Shanny or the team. 

I think guys like Brissett, Tyrod, Trubs, Fitzy...I Think they will have a market which likely pushes them out of hte price range we can reasonably afford for a "break glass in case of emergency". 

Basically, I'd estimate that we have 35 million in space for next year. That is almost completely taken up by Trent Williams + draft class (likely a few million left over because the first year cap hit will get massaged by the team, I'm sure). You'll still need money for the other free agents you want to bring back + Warner's extension. There's simply no way to really free up the needed space without doing something with Jimmy.  So basically, you're going to give him a 3 year extension through 2025. You'll convert basically all of his salary to signing bonus, leave his base at like 1.5 or whatever. That's about 23 million or so spread over 5 years which is 4.6 per year. This kicks Jimmy's 2021 salary down to roughly 6 million on cap and frees up about 20 million in space that we can use to re-sign Verrett, E-man, fill out as much of the roster as possible, etc. You'll likely still have to drop some dead weight (those roster fillers add up with the new minimums). Dee Ford if he doesn't fail his physical will either be renegotiated or cut. Richburg I"m not sure on...his savings are kind of minimal (like 3 million), so if he's healthy, I don't know if there is a point to that. Same for Tomlinson most likely. 

So you sign Schaub and draft a guy. Hopefully not on day 2...this team can't reasonably afford to use a draft pick that could be an immediate contributor. I'd expect Edge / CB in round 2 that can immediately come in, and round 3 could be much of the same, an interior lineman, wide receiver or even a running back that could come in and contribute. Maybe a TE2 if Reed isn't back. Lots of positions still available for a guy to come in even as a third. 

So at that point you're probably looking at guys like Brock Purdy and Kenny Pickett...which...meh. I'd prefer to go for broke as I see both of those guys as nothing more than backups; Purdy is basically Colt McCoy and Pickett is kind of hte same with a marginally better arm, worse accuracy, and a weird inability to throw downfield over the middle. So give me a guy like Malik Willis out at Liberty. If you want more of a pocket passer type, I'd probably go Tanner Morgan over either of the previous two mentioned. Possible that we will just bypass the draft though...after all, if you're restructuring jimmy and tying him up here through at least 2022, no real reason to burn through 2 years of a rookie deal. So you can justify signing Schaub and letting CJ and Rosen battle it out for a QB3 role. 

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3 hours ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Okay, so let's take Shanny and Lynch at their words and Jimmy is our QB next year. How do you prefer to upgrade the back up QB situation and what moves help improve the offense? This was a top 7 offense in 2019, can it get to that level or even better next year? If so, how? 

First, the backup QB - Beathard has the inside track to getting a shot at the backup QB job in 2021. Like it or, I think that's the reality, but it doesn't mean we wouldn't bring in a vet to compete with him for the job.

I'd like to spend our 1st on a QB. My preference is Zach Wilson, but if he keeps trending upward, he may be out of our range. I'm keeping an eye on how Lance does with the draft process. If teams think he's too raw for a top 10 pick, then he's there for the taking at our pick, presumably. If all of Wilson, Fields, and Lance are gone, I'd probably bail on a QB in the draft, as of right now in the draft process. 

 

To get the offense back to 2019 standards, it starts and ends with pass protection. Having a revolving door at C and RG in pass pro is crippling this offense. This HAS to be fixed this offseason. McGlinchey has his problems at pass protection but he's an elite run blocker and there's some hope that this offseason he will bulk back up and will be able to be at least average in pass pro like he was in 2019.

The talent at the skill positions is there, the QB is there, but the protection is not. Addressing pass pro has to be the #1 priority to get this offense back to where it can be. If Jimmy has time to hit guys deep, it unlocks Aiyuk's deep game and elevates him to a true threat at any level of the defense. This opens up lanes for everyone else and helps the running game as well. 

I will sound like a broken record this offseason - Fix. The. Pass. Protection.

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47 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

I will sound like a broken record this offseason - Fix. The. Pass. Protection.

Fun note - our pass block win rate is basically identical between this year and last year. 

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The problem is, I legitimately don't expect this line to get any better from external forces unless Richburg retires, in which case I think it's likely we'll sign Mack. But otherwise, I think the starters are largely the same unless Williams doesn't return in which case the line is going to be worse no matter what. Richburg / Mack will definitely be an upgrade over what we have had at points this year. RG will likely be a competition between McKivitz, Brunskill and maybe another versatile lineman? 

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2 minutes ago, Forge said:

Fun note - our pass block win rate is basically identical between this year and last year. 

This is true. And in 2019, our average snap to throw was 2.4 seconds (#2 lowest in NFL), even though our pressure rate of 20.7% was 10th lowest and our overall pressures were 3rd fewest in the NFL with 109. The big difference is we had a very good QB at the helm in 2019 and we had scrubs in 2020. Jimmy masked our deficiencies well enough in 2019 because of his superior snap to release time. 

In 2020, our pass protection deficiencies were on full display. Even with a healthy Jimmy, I still think pass pro is our biggest weakness on offense.

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Just now, NinerNation21 said:

This is true. And in 2019, our average snap to throw was 2.4 seconds (#2 lowest in NFL), even though our pressure rate of 20.7% was 10th lowest and our overall pressures were 3rd fewest in the NFL with 109. The big difference is we had a very good QB at the helm in 2019 and we had scrubs in 2020. Jimmy masked our deficiencies well enough in 2019 because of his superior snap to release time. 

In 2020, our pass protection deficiencies were on full display. Even with a healthy Jimmy, I still think pass pro is our biggest weakness on offense.

Yep. The line doesn't look nearly as bad as it has if it's Jimmy back there all year. It's still not good, but you work with what you have. Which is what I really think that we are going to have to do. 

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Just now, Forge said:

Yep. The line doesn't look nearly as bad as it has if it's Jimmy back there all year. It's still not good, but you work with what you have. Which is what I really think that we are going to have to do. 

We really need to get the C position corrected this offseason to sure up pass pro. If Richburg is healthy and ready to go, yay. If not, we need to get someone in there that can protect and stay on the field. 

Jimmy will do what he can to mask our issues, but if the O-line can buy him a few more fractions of a second in the pocket, we could see deep passes to Aiyuk for big gains regularly.

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12 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

Jimmy will do what he can to mask our issues, but if the O-line can buy him a few more fractions of a second in the pocket, we could see deep passes to Aiyuk for big gains regularly.

I don't think the offensive line is the issue with the deep passes. Not when you watch the coach's film, as @N4L will attest as well. A decent chunk of that is on Jimmy. 

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3 hours ago, Forge said:

You have to restructure Jimmy, which ties him to the team for longer. Otherwise, you're pretty capped. Either the offensive line takes a huge hit when we can't re-sign Trent, or you lose several other pieces which just eats at your overall roster depth. Either way, the team is worse, Jimmy can't carry the team and you're just spinning tires in the mud. So you have to free up space to give Jimmy the best team around him. If you don't free up as much money as possible, the idea of then putting more money toward a position that may or may not play because your QB can't stay healthy is problematic. We can't afford to pay 7 million for a back up like the Raiders did...but if Andy Dalton took a below market deal to go to Dallas at only 3 million and Winston took below market to go to New Orleans, so maybe we can get someone to buy into that. Best case would maybe Alex since he has history here, but I'd guess that the most likely scenario would be Matt Schaub who I am assuming would still want to play? I think you're looking at guys like that. Matt Schaub, Hoyer and Barkley could obviously make sense. Joe Flacco if you want a guy that doesn't have familiarity with Shanny or the team. 

I think guys like Brissett, Tyrod, Trubs, Fitzy...I Think they will have a market which likely pushes them out of hte price range we can reasonably afford for a "break glass in case of emergency". 

Basically, I'd estimate that we have 35 million in space for next year. That is almost completely taken up by Trent Williams + draft class (likely a few million left over because the first year cap hit will get massaged by the team, I'm sure). You'll still need money for the other free agents you want to bring back + Warner's extension. There's simply no way to really free up the needed space without doing something with Jimmy.  So basically, you're going to give him a 2 year extension through 2024. You'll convert basically all of his salary to signing bonus, leave his base at like 1.5 or whatever. That's about 23 million or so spread over 5 years which is 4.6 per year. This kicks Jimmy's 2021 salary down to roughly 6 million on cap and frees up about 20 million in space that we can use to re-sign Verrett, E-man, fill out as much of the roster as possible, etc. You'll likely still have to drop some dead weight (those roster fillers add up with the new minimums). Dee Ford if he doesn't fail his physical will either be renegotiated or cut. Richburg I"m not sure on...his savings are kind of minimal (like 3 million), so if he's healthy, I don't know if there is a point to that. Same for Tomlinson most likely. 

So you sign Schaub and draft a guy. Hopefully not on day 2...this team can't reasonably afford to use a draft pick that could be an immediate contributor. I'd expect Edge / CB in round 2 that can immediately come in, and round 3 could be much of the same, an interior lineman, wide receiver or even a running back that could come in and contribute. Maybe a TE2 if Reed isn't back. Lots of positions still available for a guy to come in even as a third. 

So at that point you're probably looking at guys like Brock Purdy and Kenny Pickett...which...meh. I'd prefer to go for broke as I see both of those guys as nothing more than backups; Purdy is basically Colt McCoy and Pickett is kind of hte same with a marginally better arm, worse accuracy, and a weird inability to throw downfield over the middle. So give me a guy like Malik Willis out at Liberty. If you want more of a pocket passer type, I'd probably go Tanner Morgan over either of the previous two mentioned. Possible that we will just bypass the draft though...after all, if you're restructuring jimmy and tying him up here through at least 2022, no real reason to burn through 2 years of a rookie deal. So you can justify signing Schaub and letting CJ and Rosen battle it out for a QB3 role. 

Good stuff! 

I'd rather not go after someone like Schaub who I don't really see as an upgrade over what we currently have. I like the Tyrod idea as he can potentially hold it down for a few weeks should Jimmy get hurt.

Maiocco wrote in his article today that bringing back Jimmy is the most realistic thing but nothing is solidified until the restructure his contract. 

Okay, so let's say they do restructure his contract. There would be a dead cap of around 10M in 2022, correct? 

Offensively we really have a lot of good weapons and should be fine. But a tweak or two to the OL is our best best. McGlinchey will have to be better but he's never been good in pass protection, and that was true in 2019 as well. I think Williams is definitely returning. Seems like there is mutual interest there and he will certainly cost a pretty penny. But imagine this OL without him? 

Richburg situation is interesting. There isn't much of a gain to cutting him but most beat writers expect him gone. You have sold me on the Mack addition and I think that is the way to go. He is still solid and that's enough for this OL.

I think drafting an interior OL in the 4th round to compete for the RG spot would be good. McKivitz should get the start this week and I'm looking forward to seeing how he plays. It was a shame he got Covid last week as he played well the week prior. 

Defensively, we will have to address through the draft for the most part. Re-signing Moseley is a given but Verrett needs to return as well. If Spoon has another good game on Sunday, then honestly he may have priced himself out of here. Some team is going to fall in love with his physical attributes and he has flashed every single season here so there is something there. A team will convince themselves they can get the best out of him for an entire season (cough cough Seattle).

If we can go Horn and best edge rusher in round 2, that would be great. But if there's a good edge rusher to be had in the first round, then we can go that route and go CB in round two. Is this supposed to be a deep CB draft? I know the consensus top three seem to be Farley, Surtain and Horn. Should be in line to taking one of them in the first round. 

I'd actually also love to get a WR in the 3rd or 4th round as well. Aiyuk/Deebo/James is not bad at all but just one more for insurance if Deebo is to be hurt again...And with his style that is likely to happen. Just hope he doesn't miss too much time.

Juice is another interesting call. Shanny and the crew love him and he is a good pass catcher but Hokit is on the practice squad for a reason and by all reports, he looked really good in TC. May just be a situation where there won't be enough money to bring him back.

The roster for the most part is still loaded, even if we lose some guys to free agency. Bringing back Trent has to be priority #1 but this defense is not going anywhere with the talent of the DL with Bosa returning and Warner. Should be a top 5 or so unit next season.

Jimmy is going to have to work on his deep ball or at least start attempting more deep passes. This reminds me of the Smith situation in KC when they drafted Mahomes. All of a sudden the guy that never went deep was throwing nothing but deep balls in 2017 lol. Jimmy is going to have to do more of that if he returns as our starter, no other way around it. 

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7 minutes ago, Forge said:

I don't think the offensive line is the issue with the deep passes. Not when you watch the coach's film, as @N4L will attest as well. A decent chunk of that is on Jimmy. 

I will take your word on that. But PFF did rank Jimmy G as the #8 deep passer in 2019 with a 61.3 cmp% and a 105 passer rating on deep throws. 

Also, to further drive home to point of how good Jimmy is overall, as well as masking our o-line deficiencies, here are two fun Jimmy G stats:

  • There are only 8 QB's in the past 2 years that have an On Target % over 80% and a Bad Throw % of less than 15%, Jimmy is one of them.
  • There are only 9 QB's in the past 3 years that have a CMP% of over 69% / QB Rating of over 100.0 / Passing TDs over 25, Jimmy is one of them.
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1 minute ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Okay, so let's say they do restructure his contract. There would be a dead cap of around 10M in 2022, correct? 

 

Closer to 20. 18.4 from 4 years of a restructure + 1.4 from the original contract. If you restucture him, the earliest you're getting rid of him is 2023, and that still hits you with 14 million in dead space. 

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1 minute ago, Forge said:

Closer to 20. 18.4 from 4 years of a restructure + 1.4 from the original contract. If you restucture him, the earliest you're getting rid of him is 2023, and that still hits you with 14 million in dead space. 

Um, then I'm not sure if they do restructure his deal. I could see them being fine with a 10M dead cap in 2022, but 18M dead cap in 2022? That's tough. 

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30 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

I will take your word on that. But PFF did rank Jimmy G as the #8 deep passer in 2019 with a 61.3 cmp% and a 105 passer rating on deep throws. 

Also, to further drive home to point of how good Jimmy is overall, as well as masking our o-line deficiencies, here are two fun Jimmy G stats:

  • There are only 8 QB's in the past 2 years that have an On Target % over 80% and a Bad Throw % of less than 15%, Jimmy is one of them.
  • There are only 9 QB's in the past 3 years that have a CMP% of over 69% / QB Rating of over 100.0 / Passing TDs over 25, Jimmy is one of them.

Jimmy throws 5 yards past the line and those are arbitrarily cut off. Most other quarterbacks have a much higher burden on their shoulders. LIS before, he's a beneficiary of the system...he doesn't benefit the system. You're saying he's one of 8 and 9 in what is possibly the friendliest QB system in the league. I'm willing to bet that a lot of people's bad throw percentages decrease if they threw shorter passes. Jameis' off target percentage was 20%. He threw the ball nearly 11 yards down field per pass compared to Jimmy's 6.5. That's a huge difference. Two guys with comparable depth of targets are Derek Carr and Brees. They have better bad throw percentages and better int numbers. Mahomes was 18% but throws it 9 yards downfield on average. Context really matters here. 

Plus, go back and look at those 2019...he's pretty good at about 20 yards down the field...which is where a lot of those are cut off at. But then use the eye test on some of those completions that are 30-40 yards down field.  The Deebo catch you can forgive because of the weather, but are we really going to say taht was a good pass down field? The Manny Sanders catch against New Orleans was way underthrown.   He badly misfired a wide open Goodwin against the Rams the first game. Downfield downfield, he's just not good...sometimes they are complete though. I just don't think that they are throws that he's comfrotable with. That's not really an issue, the offense works...but it's definitely not Shanny's full blown offense. He has historically thrown it downfield at a much higher clip than he has with Jimmy...so that's either Shanny removing it because he doesn't trust Jimmy to make those throws, or he's calling it and Jimmy isn't throwing it. 

He's not a bad QB...he's fine...he's an average QB who greatly benefits from the system that makes him look like a good QB statistically. That's why I'm more amenable to moving on...because I don't think you're looking for a "good" QB to replicate the stats. the stats are good, but I think you only need average to look good, so it's not as hard.  He and Derek Carr are basically the same person, and I don't think anyone is in here defending carr as a "good" QB. This is one of my favorite stats from Jimmy's 2019 season because I do believe that it very much sums up Jimmy. Jimmy was one of the league leaders in epa per play in 2019, but 85% of his EPA per play in 2019 came after the catch. 85%! On plays without play action, he was dead last in the NFL in EPA per play, and when Jimmy scrambles out of the pocket, his EPA is a very poor -.43 (contract this to the sky high total of schemed roll outs out of the pocket where he averaged over 1.2 epa). He's Baker / Goff / Cousins. Baker is a great example. Look at what he's doing in the Stefanski system which is comparable to our own. Look at how poorly all of those guys struggle against pure pressure (not blitzes)...they are 4 of the worst in the league. They are very similar type QBs...and I just dont' feel the need to tie up the money in him like that if that's what he is. 

 

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18 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Um, then I'm not sure if they do restructure his deal. I could see them being fine with a 10M dead cap in 2022, but 18M dead cap in 2022? That's tough. 

That's me assuming that they restructure the full amount. They could always go lower. I dont' know why they do that though. It's a half measure that solves no problems whatsoever lol. I mean, freeing up 8-10 million just doesn't really move the needle with the free agents we have. 

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3 minutes ago, Forge said:

Jimmy throws 5 yards past the line and those are arbitrarily cut off. Most other quarterbacks have a much higher burden on their shoulders and those are some pretty random and arbitrary cut offs. LIS before, he's a beneficiary of the system...he doesn't benefit the system. You're saying he's one of 8 and 9 in what is possibly the friendliest QB system in the league. I'm willing to bet that a lot of people's bad throw percentages decrease if they threw shorter passes. Jameis' off target percentage was 20%. He threw the ball nearly 11 yards down field per pass compared to Jimmy's 6.5. That's a huge difference. Two guys with comparable depth of targets are Derek Carr and Brees. They have better bad throw percentages and better int numbers. Mahomes was 18% but throws it 9 yards downfield on average. Context really matters here. 

Plus, go back and look at those 2019...he's pretty good at about 20 yards down the field...which is where a lot of those are cut off at. But then use the eye test on some of those completions that are 30-40 yards down field.  The Deebo catch you can forgive because of the weather, but are we really going to say taht was a good pass down field? The Manny Sanders catch against New Orleans was way underthrown.   He badly misfired a wide open Goodwin against the Rams the first game. Downfield downfield, he's just not good...sometimes they are complete though. I just don't think that they are throws that he's comfrotable with. That's not really an issue, the offense works...but it's definitely not Shanny's full blown offense. He has historically thrown it downfield at a much higher clip than he has with Jimmy...so that's either Shanny removing it because he doesn't trust Jimmy to make those throws, or he's calling it and Jimmy isn't throwing it. 

He's not a bad QB...he's fine...he's an average QB who greatly benefits from the system that makes him look like a good QB statistically. That's why I'm more amenable to moving on...the stats are good, but I think you only need average to look good, so it's not as hard.  He and Derek Carr are basically the same person, and I don't think anyone is in here defending carr as a "good" QB. This is one of my favorite stats from Jimmy's 2019 season because I do believe that it very much sums up Jimmy. Jimmy was one of the league leaders in epa per play in 2019, but 85% of his EPA per play in 2019 came after the catch. 85%! On plays without play action, he was dead last in the NFL in EPA per play, and when Jimmy scrambles out of the pocket, his EPA is a very poor -.43 (contract this to the sky high total of schemed roll outs out of the pocket where he averaged over 1.2 epa). He's Baker / Goff / Cousins. Baker is a great example. Look at what he's doing in the Stefanski system which is comparable to our own. Look at how poorly all of those guys struggle against pure pressure (not blitzes)...they are 4 of the worst in the league. They are very similar type QBs...and I just dont' feel the need to tie up the money in him like that if that's what he is. 

 

Thank you, I was just about to mention this. His downfield accuracy is shotty at best. He's never been comfortable working that element of the passing game and at this point I don't think it's in him to fix or change that.

And for guy who doesn't chuck it that much, his int rate is atrocious. When you averaging 7 yards a pass and still to toss double digit ints there is a big problem.

I just want a QB who can make throws to every part of the field, is a willing and accurate deep ball thrower and doesn't fold like a lawn chair when pressured. I can deal with the ints if you're giving me that and not handcuffing the play-caller.

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