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Week 10 Poll Discussions/1st CFP Rankings


naptownskinsfan

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1. Ohio State (8-0)
2. LSU (8-0)
3. Alabama (8-0)
4. Penn State (8-0)
5. Clemson (8-0)
6. Georgia (7-1)
7. Oregon (8-1)
8. Utah (8-1)
9. Oklahoma (7-1)
10. Florida (7-2)
11. Auburn (7-2)
12. Baylor (8-0)
13. Wisconsin (6-2)
14. Michigan (7-2)
15. Notre Dame (6-2)
16. Kansas State (6-2)
17. Minnesota (8-0)
18. Iowa (6-2)
19. Wake Forest (7-1)
20. Cincinnati (7-1)
21. Memphis (8-1)
22. Boise State (7-1)
23. Oklahoma State (6-3)
24. Navy (7-1)
25. SMU (8-1)

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1 LSU (17) 8-0 1,479 1
2 Alabama (21) 8-0 1,472 2
3 Ohio State (17) 8-0 1,467 3
4 Clemson (7) 9-0 1,406 4
5 Penn State 8-0 1,306 5
6 Georgia 7-1 1,196 8
7 Oregon 8-1 1,180 7
8 Utah 8-1 1,090 9
9 Oklahoma 7-1 1,045 10
10 Florida 7-2 938 6
11 Baylor 8-0 909 12
12 Auburn 7-2 901 11
13 Minnesota 8-0 831 13
14 Michigan 7-2 780 14
15 Notre Dame 6-2 571 16
16 Wisconsin 6-2 558 18
17 Cincinnati 7-1 527 17
18 Iowa 6-2 491 19
19 Memphis 8-1 448 24
20 Kansas State 6-2 364 22
21 Boise State 7-1 310 21
22 Wake Forest 7-1 296 23
23 SMU 8-1 250 15
24 San Diego State 7-1 87 25
25 Navy 7-1 83 NR
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1 Alabama 8-0 1591
2 LSU 8-0 1531
3 Clemson 9-0 1495
4 Ohio State 8-0 1492
5 Penn State 8-0 1361
6 Georgia 7-1 1263
7 Oregon 8-1 1236
8 Oklahoma 7-1 1143
9 Utah 8-1 1111
10 Baylor 8-0 980
11 Florida 7-2 941
12 Auburn 7-2 914
13 Minnesota 8-0 880
14 Michigan 7-2 746
15 Notre Dame 6-2 660
16 Wisconsin 6-2 591
17 Cincinnati 7-1 549
18 Iowa 6-2 527
19 Memphis 8-1 418
20 Wake Forest 7-1 392
21 Boise State 7-1 388
22 Kansas State 6-2 265
23 SMU 8-1 235
24 San Diego State 7-1 105
25 Navy 7-1 92
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Been thinking about this.

 

Clemson

Ohio St

---

UGA, Bama, LSU, Clemson, OSU, Penn State, Baylor and Minnesota still have the destiny in their own hands.

 

 

rankings for week 10:

 

#1 LSU

#2 Ohio St

#3 Alabama

#4 Clemson

#5 Penn State

#6 Georgia

 

 

prediction for final playoff rankings:

 

#1 Ohio State 13-0

#2 Georgia 12-1

#3 Clemson 13-0

#4 Alabama 12-1

---

#5 LSU 11-1

#6 Oklahoma 12-1

#7 Oregon 12-1

#8 PSU 11-1

 

 

The one scenario the committee wants to avoid is undefeated Baylor. They would need to defeat Texas and Oklahoma twice so it probably isn't happening.

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4 hours ago, SBLIII said:

Been thinking about this.

 

Clemson

Ohio St

---

UGA, Bama, LSU, Clemson, OSU, Penn State, Baylor and Minnesota still have the destiny in their own hands.

 

 

rankings for week 10:

 

#1 LSU

#2 Ohio St

#3 Alabama

#4 Clemson

#5 Penn State

#6 Georgia

 

 

prediction for final playoff rankings:

 

#1 Ohio State 13-0

#2 Georgia 12-1

#3 Clemson 13-0

#4 Alabama 12-1

---

#5 LSU 11-1

#6 Oklahoma 12-1

#7 Oregon 12-1

#8 PSU 11-1

 

 

The one scenario the committee wants to avoid is undefeated Baylor. They would need to defeat Texas and Oklahoma twice so it probably isn't happening.

Pretty sure the committee would hate to see an undefeated Minnesota even more.... Extremely unlikely but can you imagine?

Ooh....or Both end up undefeated! That would give the committee heart attacks

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22 minutes ago, Raves said:

I'm calling the eventual final 4 to be:

#1-LSU 13-0

#2-Ohio State 13-0

#3-Clemson 13-0

#4-Oklahoma 12-1

#5-Alabama 11-1

#6-Penn State 11-1

#7-Oregon 12-1

#8-Georgia 11-2

I think Oklahoma is highly unlikely to find favor over some of those other teams with that bad loss and really just the general state of their defense/fact they aren’t a top 4 team. 

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43 minutes ago, NateDawg said:

I think Oklahoma is highly unlikely to find favor over some of those other teams with that bad loss and really just the general state of their defense/fact they aren’t a top 4 team. 

Maybe swap Oregon and Oklahoma?  I think they'll take a 12-1 Conference champ over a 2nd SEC team this year.

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Just now, Raves said:

Maybe swap Oregon and Oklahoma?  I think they'll take a 12-1 Conference champ over a 2nd SEC team this year.

I’d like to see that because I’m big on winning your conference as a decider in a subjective process. I guess I’m just basing my thinking off of past precedent and thinking what the committee is likely to do. I guess who of us really knows though lol. They’ll just do what they want to in the end. 

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Playoff ranking predictions:

1. LSU 

2. Ohio St.

3. Clemson 

4. Oregon

5. Alabama

6. Big12 Champion

7. Highest ranked G5 team once the current 7-11's shift around with losses (Penn St, Georgia, Utah, etc). 

1-3 are obvious with LSU/Bama and Ohio St/Penn St interchangeable. 

I can see a 1-loss Oregon squeeze in if they win out and Utah wins out until the Pac12 Championship. If not, then whichever interchangeable team above is next in line. 

Oklahoma's loss is ugly. I don't think the committee wants Baylor at all. 

As teams fall, I have a Cincinnati or Memphis type winning out. The committee loves narratives and probably wants a G5 team at least in the "almost there" mix with Notre Dame having 2 losses already. Otherwise, 7 will be the some P5 conference runner up. 

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22 hours ago, SBLIII said:

Been thinking about this.

 

Clemson

Ohio St

---

UGA, Bama, LSU, Clemson, OSU, Penn State, Baylor and Minnesota still have the destiny in their own hands.

 

 

rankings for week 10:

 

#1 LSU

#2 Ohio St

#3 Alabama

#4 Clemson

#5 Penn State

#6 Georgia

 

 

prediction for final playoff rankings:

 

#1 Ohio State 13-0

#2 Georgia 12-1

#3 Clemson 13-0

#4 Alabama 12-1

---

#5 LSU 11-1

#6 Oklahoma 12-1

#7 Oregon 12-1

#8 PSU 11-1

 

 

The one scenario the committee wants to avoid is undefeated Baylor. They would need to defeat Texas and Oklahoma twice so it probably isn't happening.

TBH, I think that the committee would also really NOT want a PSU upsetting OSU and then PSU losing 1 game scenario, because they've established the "4 best teams" montra and made their bed before by taking a 1 loss non division winning Bama/OSU at two different points and 2 teams from one conference as well.

Last year, they almost took a 2 loss UGA over a 1 loss OU.

I also think that they REALLY don't want a situation where you have:

Bama/LSU lose

The winner of that game loses to a 1 loss UGA, giving you:

UGA 1 loss SEC Champs

LSU/Bama 1 loss non SEC champs/loss in the SEC Title Game.

I think both of those two situations gets you some type of anarchy.

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Assuming Penn State loses to Ohio State and wins against Minnesota, there's no way that both Penn State and Oregon would both finish as 1 loss teams, They'd both have 1 loss going into the Rose Bowl. 

 

edit: nevermind thought you guys were picking final rankings, not pre-bowl rankings.

Edited by Danger
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19 hours ago, NateDawg said:

I think Oklahoma is highly unlikely to find favor over some of those other teams with that bad loss and really just the general state of their defense/fact they aren’t a top 4 team. 

Oklahoma certainly has an uphill battle.  At this point, I think they need LSU or Alabama to end up with two losses, because I don't think the committee would pick Oklahoma over either of them.  Penn State's OOC schedule doesn't really push them up, so they're probably in the same boat as Oklahoma.  In terms of how they finish is probably dictated by how recent their loss was, and how bad it was.  If Ohio State blows out Penn State, there's little chance that Penn State stays ahead of Oklahoma IMO.  Oregon/Utah will end up knocking one of the other out, but I think the Pac-12 as a whole is going to struggle to get in because of conference perception.

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On 11/4/2019 at 12:20 PM, CWood21 said:

Oklahoma certainly has an uphill battle.  At this point, I think they need LSU or Alabama to end up with two losses, because I don't think the committee would pick Oklahoma over either of them.  Penn State's OOC schedule doesn't really push them up, so they're probably in the same boat as Oklahoma.  In terms of how they finish is probably dictated by how recent their loss was, and how bad it was.  If Ohio State blows out Penn State, there's little chance that Penn State stays ahead of Oklahoma IMO.  Oregon/Utah will end up knocking one of the other out, but I think the Pac-12 as a whole is going to struggle to get in because of conference perception.

Penn State has some decent wins against Michigan, Iowa, Pittsburgh, and (would-be) against Minnesota.

If they lose in close fashion I could still see them being in over Oklahoma. But a blow out loss is another story. Defense has been pretty stout so far.

Edited by Danger
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Honestly, I'm half tempted to root for complete anarchy/chaos with this whole "eye test" system. Let's see if I can design the perfect storm:

*LSU barely beats Bama this week with an injured Tua (The committee has stated that they factor in injuries) that doesn't play, both teams run the table, until:

*LSU loses to Georgia in the SEC Title Game. LSU/UGA/Bama all have 1 loss. UGA has clearly the "worst loss" of the three, LSU has clearly the best win/loss resume, and Bama's lone loss is without arguably the best player in the nation.

*Baylor loses at least 1 game

*Minnesota beats Penn State this week, loses to Iowa AND Wisconsin after that

*Penn State upsets OSU, both finish with 1 loss. PSU gets the B1G East tiebreaker and heads to the B1G Title game

*Oklahoma ends the season with 1 loss, to KSU

That means the following team is in:

1. Clemson

The committee would basically have to decide between 3 "equal" SEC Teams (I assume that they pick 2 of those and leave someone else out), factoring in an injury to Tua, and Penn State/Ohio State, which using the logic of 2016 Alabama, makes Ohio State the pick since they are "clearly one of the best 4 teams in the nation" and PSU gets left out.

I think that OU is the odd team out unless someone somewhere loses 2 games.

 

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