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Week 10 GDT - Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers


J-ALL-DAY

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We didn't have our best of performances last week, but a win is a win and you take it, especially on short week against a divisional opponent. But fair to say the team has to be better to take down the Seahawks. 

It goes without saying but the biggest key will be to hold Wilson in relative check. He's playing amazing ball and is the clear cut MVP through nine weeks. What worries me is that Carson may get going and then that will lead to Wilson's patented PA deep ball that he is deadly on. The Seahawks WRs are all pretty much deep threats and Lockett has turned into one of the best WRs in the game. The secondary was a bit sloppy last week and were not disciplined, so that needs to change this week. I'm curious to see if the Seahawks go uptempo as that is not their DNA and if they implement the screen game. I think we just have to rush four all game and drop the rest in coverage to prevent the deep ball. Can't be blitzing Wilson all that much as he will make us play and then that opens up the deep game.

As for the other end? We should be able to get stuff done through the air again. The Seahawks have one of the worst pass rushes in the league and the secondary is up and down. Staley will for sure be returning and there is a chance McGlinchey returns as well. I know our run game got going against Carolina, but overall it has been inconsistent since McGlinchey and Juice Check went out. Will be a welcome sight to get back at least Staley/Juice Check and potentially McGlinchey. Jimmy G should have more than enough time to dissect the defense and I'm hoping we unlock the deep passing game and get that going this game. That is the last thing missing in this offense. Jimmy G is actually the most accurate QB on passes over 20+ yards, but the problem is he attempts them at a very low rate. 

And I know there was some debate on if Moseley should stay in the starting line up? But I don't think so. Spoon is just flat out better so he should get his spot back if he's ready to go. What I would like to see on obvious passing downs is using Moseley as the fourth CB with the loss of Alexander. So roll with our two safeties, Sherm/Spoon/Williams/Moseley, Warner and our front four. That is one way to combat the loss of Alexander in the passing game. 

Wilson has been our kryptonite for years but I feel confident we win this one as we get a lot of injured players back. Something to the extent of 30-17.

 

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3 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Ball control/time of possession is how I would play it. Keep Wilson on the sidelines as long as possible. 

Simple and obvious, I know. 

I would go the other way. Score and score fast. Keep the pressure on them and force them to pass the ball and let our pass rushers pin their ears back. 

Their secondary is bad outside of the two handed Griffen brother, who I expect to shadow sanders. Wagner is good against the run but isn't the same guy he was. Their safties are not good. J is right about their DL, they are better against the run than the pass. 

Their defense is a bottom 10 unit in the NFL so let's not worry about playing keep away and just score early, score often, and out pace them. By doing so we can eliminate Carson from the game because he's not much of a factor in the passing game. 

I expect them to come out and try and establish the running game early, so it will be important to tackle well so that we can build an early lead. Then we keep the pressure on them and go bird hunting 

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This is the biggest game for the franchise in a long time. Seattle has been a bawse hog in the NFC for what seems like 1000 years now. That being said, the 49ers should win. I'll be extremely disappointed if they don't beat Seattle by at least a couple of touchdowns. They're at home, will have had 11 days of rest, they're getting some injured guys back, and are just facing a team that isn't as good of a unit overall. Yes, Russell Wilson is a pain, but the 49ers have a good trigger man of their own. Ok the 49ers run defense is a little suspect, and Kwon Alexander is out. Big deal. Seahawks should still be beaten convincingly. Their defense is very lackluster. The rest of the NFC is just around the corner. Even at 8-0, the 49ers can't afford a loss. It sounds nutty, but a 1st round bye is still up in the air. Even the division title. 

Death to the Seahawks. 

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Edited by PapaShogun
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Interesting stats about Seattle:

  • Passing yards given up: 2nd most in NFL
  • Pass rush: 5th fewest sacks in the NFL
  • Rushing defense: 2nd most TDs given up in the NFL

Seattle's defense is a well below average defense that is especially terrible against the pass. Their rush defense is about league average, but they're susceptible to giving up big chunk plays.

 

A few thoughts on this matchup:

  • This is a MUST WIN game. It's the biggest test for the team to date and it's one that must be won to keep Seattle at a fair distance and to keep their destiny in their own hands.
  • Jimmy needs to prove that last week wasn't a fluke. Seattle has been pretty good at neutralizing running games outside of Lamar Jackson and Nick Chubb. I'm hoping with the extra time off and the likelihood of getting Staley, McGlinchey, and Juszcyzk back will help bolster the run game. But even if that happens, Jimmy G is going to have to make big plays and Seattle is pretty bad at stopping the pass. 
  • The 49ers' zone-heavy pass defense should help to neutralize Wilson's running lanes. We know the pass rush will get home, but we also know Wilson makes highlight-reel escapes to hit receivers deep downfield or he scrambles for big gains. Keeping the defenders facing Wilson while in zone should help prevent Wilson picking up large chunks with his legs, but they're also going to have to be disciplined to not let receivers behind them.
  • Shutting down Lockett is a priority. Neutralizing Lockett will be the dagger in the heart for Seattle. This is also a really tough task to complete. K'Wann Williams will have his biggest test of the season this week. It's time for him to show that he's truly one of the top slot corners in the NFL this year.
Edited by NinerNation21
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35 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Ball control/time of possession is how I would play it. Keep Wilson on the sidelines as long as possible. 

Simple and obvious in plan, complicated in its execution.

I agree keep Wilson on the sidelines. Nice long drives as Seattle's D isn't that great.The 49ers can have a great defensive game however, Wilson will still scramble around and make things happen. I'm confident just because streaks and trends have to end right? I feel it's just the 49ers time and this time around it's different. 

This one is huge to me as it's going to be tough to beat them a 2nd time in Seattle. Also with many back from injury I think the personnel advantage is clearly in San Fran's favor.  

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So according to Offensive DVOA we rank #12 and #2 defensively.

Interesting enough, passing offense is ranked #11 while rush offense is ranked #15. I think part of that is that Shanahan will commit to it even if it isn't doing great and that we will have a lot of short runs before breaking one big. Also, the run offense hasn't been as good since the injuries to McGlinchey and Juice Check. I'm confident we will be in the top 10 when it is all said and done. 

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16 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

So according to Offensive DVOA we rank #12 and #2 defensively.

Interesting enough, passing offense is ranked #11 while rush offense is ranked #15. I think part of that is that Shanahan will commit to it even if it isn't doing great and that we will have a lot of short runs before breaking one big. Also, the run offense hasn't been as good since the injuries to McGlinchey and Juice Check. I'm confident we will be in the top 10 when it is all said and done. 

Well we also have had some huge leads and have just been running to kill the clock which hurts our efficiency numbers. Teams know we are going to be running in this scenario

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30 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

So according to Offensive DVOA we rank #12 and #2 defensively.

Interesting enough, passing offense is ranked #11 while rush offense is ranked #15. I think part of that is that Shanahan will commit to it even if it isn't doing great and that we will have a lot of short runs before breaking one big. Also, the run offense hasn't been as good since the injuries to McGlinchey and Juice Check. I'm confident we will be in the top 10 when it is all said and done. 

Our running game is never well liked by DVOA. We were actually dead last in dvoa rushing offense last year despite being middle of the back for most numbers. 

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21 minutes ago, Forge said:

Our running game is never well liked by DVOA. We were actually dead last in dvoa rushing offense last year despite being middle of the back for most numbers. 

I think DVOA values individual plays more than anything. So I mean we may have had a lot of carries go for minimal gains, but then would have a huge gain for like 30+. But I think they need to adjust their model a bit because that's not how it should be. I know DVOA takes into consideration garbage time stats and what not for the defense, but shouldn't the same be used for running out the clock in the 4th quarter? Or does it already take into consideration all that? 

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Just now, J-ALL-DAY said:

I think DVOA values individual plays more than anything. So I mean we may have had a lot of carries go for minimal gains, but then would have a huge gain for like 30+. But I think they need to adjust their model a bit because that's not how it should be. I know DVOA takes into consideration garbage time stats and what not for the defense, but shouldn't the same be used for running out the clock in the 4th quarter? Or does it already take into consideration all that? 

My understanding is that is how it works. So a team that seriously just got 5 yards every single carry for 5 carries would be much higher with regards to dvoa than a team that rushed for one 30 yard carry and the -1, -1, -2, -1

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5 minutes ago, Forge said:

My understanding is that is how it works. So a team that seriously just got 5 yards every single carry for 5 carries would be much higher with regards to dvoa than a team that rushed for one 30 yard carry and the -1, -1, -2, -1

Right, I know they value individual plays more and take into consideration blowouts. But just saying with our outside zone scheme, it is basically built to break long runs after having a few stuffed. They need to value the big yardage gains more than they do.

But by valuing individual plays, not really surprising our passing offense is ranked #11 then. Doesn't have the bulk volume stats as other offenses, but it is efficient per pass attempt. 

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