AlexGreen#20 Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, packfanfb said: Unless, he was hurt, absolutely no reason to give MVS only 11 snaps and Allison 42. I don't care if MVS gets 0 targets, his mere presence on the field given his speed makes him a bigger asset than Allison. BTW -- Allison had 3 rec for 6 yards in 42 snaps. I don't think he played after Rodgers chucked that one to him in double coverage. Not sure if it was an injury thing or there was discontentment with his effort on that one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, waterfish_21 said: Allison just doesn't seem to have a fit in this offense. I think he's a better run blocker from the slot compared to MVS, but I think MVS can do a lot of other things better. We all need to recalibrate our expectations for what the 2nd and 3rd receiver is going to do in this offense. This isn't the McCarthy spread offense where we've got 3 WRs all of whom are a close-to-equivalent read. This is the MLF 2.5 WRs, with half running clearouts every snap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 4 hours ago, Greg C. said: Credit must be given to Kyler Fackrell for making the stop on the final play of the game. He also came close to getting a sack earlier in the game. Fackrell won't have the numbers that he had last season. But I would posit that he is playing better than he did last season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltarich87 Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 At the very least, scrap the WR screen/jet plays with Allison and instead use MVS on them. At least with his speed he's an actual threat for chunk yards on plays like those. Allison isn't running past anyone 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 39 minutes ago, packfanfb said: No more broken than simply going by analytics. Situations matter in the NFL. You're at home, up 4 , last play of the half, and get the ball to start the second half. I'm taking the points there. My thoughts exactly. We had our shots to score the TD and we didn't do it. Take your 3, the 7 point lead, and go to half knowing you start the 3rd quarter with the ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnar Danneskjold Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 44 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Why would you run a play with an expected outcome of 3 points versus an expected outcome of 4.4ish? "Always take the points" is a broken narrative relic of a league when games regularly ended in scores of 13-9. You don't get 4.4 points. You get 0 or 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 Just now, Ragnar Danneskjold said: You don't get 4.4 points. You get 0 or 7. Yes, that's how an average of a binary distribution works. Given an adequate sample size, which you assume you will have over an NFL season, the correct choice is to take the higher expected points average. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBURGE Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 14 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: We all need to recalibrate our expectations for what the 2nd and 3rd receiver is going to do in this offense. This isn't the McCarthy spread offense where we've got 3 WRs all of whom are a close-to-equivalent read. This is the MLF 2.5 WRs, with half running clearouts every snap. I am just looking at the 2016 Falcons offense and kind of going from there. Julio had 1400-6 and Sanu 650-4 with the RBs being 3rd andf 4th in receiving yards. I'm cool with that level of production from WR2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 19 minutes ago, waterfish_21 said: Allison just doesn't seem to have a fit in this offense. I think he's a better run blocker from the slot compared to MVS, but I think MVS can do a lot of other things better. I think I agree. I think Allison is an average to slightly above average NFL WR put in a situation that doesn't fit his skill set at all. I doubt that changes, and I hope for him he finds a better fit next season as a FA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 47 minutes ago, packfanfb said: No more broken than simply going by analytics. Situations matter in the NFL. You're at home, up 4 , last play of the half, and get the ball to start the second half. I'm taking the points there. You're up 4 at home, with the feeling that with the weather it's going to be tough to overcome a 2 score lead and just about impossible to overcome 3 scores. A FG give you a 1 score lead at half and scoring a TD coming out of the locker room pushes it to 2 scores. No points there makes it a 1 score game at half and a TD coming out of the locker room pushes it to 2 scores. A TD to end the half makes it a 2 score game and a TD coming out of the half pushes it to 3 scores. It seems blatantly obvious to me what the right call was, that was the one we picked. The same members of the fan base that criticized Mac for being conservative are the ones saying we should've taken the points. It's because you aren't criticizing based on the situation, you look at it as, if it works good call, if it doesn't, bad call. If we score, the same people whining are probably posting "All gas, no effing brakes" memes and praising LaFleur for having the balls to go for it. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJerkDave Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 MVS is still #2 in receiving yards for the team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ragnar Danneskjold Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Yes, that's how an average of a binary distribution works. Given an adequate sample size, which you assume you will have over an NFL season, the correct choice is to take the higher expected points average. Unlike a vagas gambler, a team doesn't have the benefit of adequate number of plays to benefit from the mathematical expectation. The whloe decision rests on the game situation and the downside risk of getting zero points in that situation. There is a strong argument that the correct play was to go for it, but it is not what the mathematical expectation is. Context matter with statistics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Packerraymond said: The same members of the fan base that criticized Mac for being conservative are the ones saying we should've taken the points. It's because you aren't criticizing based on the situation, you look at it as, if it works good call, if it doesn't, bad call. If we score, the same people whining are probably posting "All gas, no effing brakes" memes and praising LaFleur for having the balls to go for it. ^^ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: You're up 4 at home, with the feeling that with the weather it's going to be tough to overcome a 2 score lead and just about impossible to overcome 3 scores. A FG give you a 1 score lead at half and scoring a TD coming out of the locker room pushes it to 2 scores. No points there makes it a 1 score game at half and a TD coming out of the locker room pushes it to 2 scores. A TD to end the half makes it a 2 score game and a TD coming out of the half pushes it to 3 scores. It seems blatantly obvious to me what the right call was, that was the one we picked. The same members of the fan base that criticized Mac for being conservative are the ones saying we should've taken the points. It's because you aren't criticizing based on the situation, you look at it as, if it works good call, if it doesn't, bad call. If we score, the same people whining are probably posting "All gas, no effing brakes" memes and praising LaFleur for having the balls to go for it. Feel free to look back at my initial post before we ran the play when I said to kick the FG. No hindsight here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartacus Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: You're up 4 at home, with the feeling that with the weather it's going to be tough to overcome a 2 score lead and just about impossible to overcome 3 scores. A FG give you a 1 score lead at half and scoring a TD coming out of the locker room pushes it to 2 scores. No points there makes it a 1 score game at half and a TD coming out of the locker room pushes it to 2 scores. A TD to end the half makes it a 2 score game and a TD coming out of the half pushes it to 3 scores. It seems blatantly obvious to me what the right call was, that was the one we picked. The same members of the fan base that criticized Mac for being conservative are the ones saying we should've taken the points. It's because you aren't criticizing based on the situation, you look at it as, if it works good call, if it doesn't, bad call. If we score, the same people whining are probably posting "All gas, no effing brakes" memes and praising LaFleur for having the balls to go for it. So much this....People want the coach to be aggressive till it doesn't work. Then that is the play they should have played conservative. MLF has consistently given his offense a chance and for the most part has been rewarded with his risks. Just didn't work this time but with the opponent, distance, and previous success on the day I thought it was the right decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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