Cutler06 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 12 picks is a lot and if we are/were to trade down, that increase our quantity, not necessarily the quality of players. My guess is we'll be picking 7th in the draft so we should be able to pick up some good talent. With that in mind I see us trying to move up rather than down. BPA in the 1st, fill a need with our 2nd then take our mid 3rd and 4th to move up and gain another 2nd. I'd also like to see us trade our 6th and a couple of 7th rounders for a mid-late 5th. Here's what I'd like to see: R1P7 OT Tristan Wirfs - Fills our biggest needs R2P7 WR Jalen Reagor - Speed receiver to give our QBOTF (whoever that is ) an exciting WR corp R2P24 LB Dylan Moses - Slip a bit due to his health but can be the speed Fangio needs at ILB. Moses can be a 3-down ILB. ** trade pick R3P17 + R4P7 R3P7 S Kyle Dugger - Big, fast safety to groom to take over for Jackson and pair with Simmons. Former RB who has return skills as well, fills 2 needs R3P30 RB Chuba Hubbard - Explosive playmaker to add to create a potent offense, Hubbard explosion to create 3-headed monster. R4P30 OG Jon Runyon - Need more depth/help on the OL, replaces Ron Leary R5P19 LB Malik Harrison A productive LB for more ILB depth, replaces Todd Davis and recover $5M in cap space ** trade pick R6P4 & R7P37&38 R5P32 OT Charlie Heck - With RT James health issues, more depth is needed R7P30 DT Benito Jones - NT to back up Purcell In Free Agency, resign Simmons, Harris, Purcell, McGovern, D.Harris and some of our minor free agent players. I'd also try to add two other player in DE Michael Brockers and CB Joe Hayden. Obvious these are projections (wish list) but I don't feel they're totally out of the question, hit me back with your thoughts, 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnAngryAmerican Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 I say this not having evaluated prospects, so keep that in mind. I don’t know what top prospects sans a few names. At this point in time - before free agency - I think we can scratch off only a few positions as certain positions we won’t consider in the 1st: QB, RB, TE and EDGE. I think every other position will be on the table as a possibility. I don’t think ILB is very likely because it doesn’t seem to be a position Elway & Co. value highly. I only think CB becomes an option in the 1st if CHJ departs, the odds of which I’d say is 50/50 right now. I’d be very surprised if they went for a S, unless they see one they deem as a game-changing, can’t-miss, could be the next Ed Reed type. Same goes for EDGE, unless Von departs which I see as highly unlikely. Interior OL is also probably unlikely unless there is a Quentin Nelson-like prospect. I personally think they add an OG and possibly a C in free agency. Thus, I think they will zero-in on OTs, DLs and WRs, again, pre-free agency. Long-term thinking is hold onto as many picks as we can, assume a 2/3 hit rate, and thus try to restock the roster with young, cheap talent that can be coached up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroncoBruin Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said: I say this not having evaluated prospects, so keep that in mind. I don’t know what top prospects sans a few names. At this point in time - before free agency - I think we can scratch off only a few positions as certain positions we won’t consider in the 1st: QB, RB, TE and EDGE. I think every other position will be on the table as a possibility. I don’t think ILB is very likely because it doesn’t seem to be a position Elway & Co. value highly. I only think CB becomes an option in the 1st if CHJ departs, the odds of which I’d say is 50/50 right now. I’d be very surprised if they went for a S, unless they see one they deem as a game-changing, can’t-miss, could be the next Ed Reed type. Same goes for EDGE, unless Von departs which I see as highly unlikely. Interior OL is also probably unlikely unless there is a Quentin Nelson-like prospect. I personally think they add an OG and possibly a C in free agency. Thus, I think they will zero-in on OTs, DLs and WRs, again, pre-free agency. Long-term thinking is hold onto as many picks as we can, assume a 2/3 hit rate, and thus try to restock the roster with young, cheap talent that can be coached up. Agreed on pretty much everything here. I think it's OT, DL and WR, with one of the two elite OT prospects being their preference. Derrick Brown (Auburn DT) and CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma WR) could be a couple names to watch if Thomas and Wirfs don't make it to Denver's pick, something that is a good possibility with several bad teams desperately needing OTs. A name to circle in free agency is BJ Finney, a guard/center for the Steelers who has looked really good in spot starts over the years but has been stuck behind Maurkice Pouncey and David DeCastro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said: I only think CB becomes an option in the 1st if CHJ departs, the odds of which I’d say is 50/50 right now Keep in mind though we still Have Callahan if he gets healthy, and Kareem's vesatility should we decide to go tone setting safety round 1. I think round one could be DE or nose tackle though especially considering the fact that they were shopping wolfe. Bolles is terrible, but I got a feeling Dolphins make sure they land Thomas. So at that point it's do you settle for the second best LT round one, or go in line TE day 2 and groom a tackle. A high end in line TE masks Garrett Boles deficiencys in a big way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 15 minutes ago, Cutler06 said: Obvious these are projections (wish list) but I don't feel they're totally out of the question, hit me back with your thoughts, Your picks are excellent there lol just feel you're selling some prospects short but the idea is so sound. If Chubba Hubbard fell to the 3rd I'd shut up permanently about a round 2 rb lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroncoBruin Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Broncos could have CHJ (hopefully) Callahan, Dawson, Davontae Harris and Bausby (hopefully) next year. That's five corners who have looked like at least competent starters. Let the young guys compete for playing time, while Callahan hopefully stays healthy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 Just now, BroncoBruin said: Broncos could have CHJ (hopefully) That Elway Harris fight seemed like an in house family fight over Elways crappy drafting(Lynch, Langley, Henderson) Harris staying or not all comes down to what Drew shows weeks 13+ imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroncoBruin Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Just now, thebestever6 said: That Elway Harris fight seemed like an in house family fight over Elways crappy drafting(Lynch, Langley, Henderson) Harris staying or not all comes down to what Drew shows weeks 13+ imo. Harris just felt slighted by Elway's pointless pot stirring and feels he's owed for what he gave up to re-sign in the first place. They can definitely mend things but if CHJ is looking to set the market and not find a compromise, I'd let him walk, comp pick or no. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 20 minutes ago, Cutler06 said: I'd also try to add two other player in DE Michael Brockers and CB Joe Hayden. On board with a Brockers stop gap signing but Hayden seems like a lateral move from CHJ. All depends on the price I guess lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroncoBruin Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 My favorite pivot from CHJ in free agency is Logan Ryan. He'd be pretty expensive though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said: My favorite pivot from CHJ in free agency is Logan Ryan. He'd be pretty expensive though. My favorite pivot is trading Von for a high upside corner and a 2 and going BPA at the top of round 2 lol. Colts have some nice corners? For a gently used Superbowl winning Von Miller. I want that Redskins second rounder lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnAngryAmerican Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Another piece to discuss here, and I mentioned it briefly in the above post, is to discuss hit/miss/bust rates. Firstly, we have to define what you hope for in each round. 1st round: Pro Bowl or better, long-term franchise cornerstones. 2nd-3rd round: Valuable starter, gets second contract, plays here for most of prime of his respective career. 4th-5th round: Key rotational/depth players, special teams contributors. Occasional valuable niche player here, e.g. a good blocking TE, 2-down ILB or WR3/4+ PR. 6th-7th Rounds/UDFA: Emergency depth, specialists, rotational niche player. Secondly, you want to define if a player is a hit, a miss or a bust. Hit: Player fills the need desired that matches the round in which he was drafted. Von is a 1st round hit, Sutton, Wolfe and Simmons 2nd/3rd hits, and Janovich and Green 6th/7th round hits. Jackson, Trevathan and Paradis were better than hits, they were surprises who greatly over-performed their draft status. Miss: Player does not live up to their draft status but is not an outright bust, I.e. they contribute in a way, perhaps even a meaningful way, but one not worthy of where they were picked. Misses include Bolles, Booker, Huereman, Roby and Walker, among many others. Bust: Player does not contribute in any meaningful way and is released by the team prior to end of their rookie contract. This designation is far less round-dependent than the other two, but, early round busts are far more devastating the franchise than are mid- and (especially) late-round busts. True busts by this FO include Paxton, Butt, Montee Ball. Teams generally aim for a 2/3 hit rate but odds are, if a detailed analysis were to be done, even the elite GMs only each a 3/4 hit+miss rate, with 1/4 of all picks being busts, but far more mid- and late- round busts than early round. I would also wager heavily that the elite GMs getting lucky somewhat regularly with surprises, e.g. CHJ as an elite player acquired as an UDFA. We should use an analytical tool such as the one I outline here at evaluating drafts and seeing what it tells us about the future. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 Idk if it's trolling but I'd like to sign Robbie Anderson in Free agency and find a Julian Edelman round 5 or 6. Fant basically is our #2. I knowwwww Julian Edelman's dont grow on trees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroncoBruin Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Did a few simulations on The Draft Network's mock draft machine. Just doing Days 1 and 2. Take all this with a huge grain of salt as some of the values here are pretty unrealistic. But it's a fun exercise. (OT scenario) #9: OT Tristan Wirfs, Iowa #41: DL Marvin Wilson, Florida State #73: LB Jacob Phillips, LSU #81: iOL Lloyd Cushenberry III, LSU (what an awesome name) #96: WR Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State (WR scenario) - my least favorite, board never fell as favorably as the other two drafts #9: WR CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma #41: OT Prince Tega Wanogho, Auburn #73: S Brandon Jones, Texas #81: DL Leki Fotu, Utah #96: iOL Lloyd Cushenberry III, LSU (DL scenario) #9: DT Derrick Brown, Auburn #41: WR KJ Hamler, Penn State #73: OT Trey Adams, Washington #81: S Xavier McKinney, Alabama (probably unrealistic at this spot) #96: LB Troy Dye, Oregon I love Cal FS Ashtyn Davis with one of the early 3rds but he went late 2nd-first few picks of the 3rd in all three sims. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said: #9: DT Derrick Brown, Auburn #41: WR KJ Hamler, Penn State #73: OT Trey Adams, Washington #81: S Xavier McKinney, Alabama (probably unrealistic at this spot) #96: LB Troy Dye, Oregon Best scenario from your list minus RB, Inline te, and guard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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