Halfway Mock: "... we're in the endgame now."

[jetskid007]

Yes Jets fans, we have reached the lowest point I can remember as a Jets fan. And that's saying a lot. We've witnessed a lot, but this was a team that had been oozing with optimism in training camp and through the preseason. Sam Darnold looked great, the offense was clicking, and the defense was expected to be a solid unit under the guidance of Gregg Williams. Unfortunately, we let the phony sunshine and rainbows blind us from what true problems actually existed - and it was well before Darnold saw ghosts, his illness or significant injuries throughout the roster, and well before Douglas inherited this team... 

• The offensive line was a disaster waiting to happen. Many media members and fans alike lauded the Osemele trade, but the front office clearly ignored various red flags which should have left them skeptical: (1) Osemele had a preexisting shoulder injury, which the Jets knew about; (2) Osemele became a distraction in Oakland and turned into a "locker-room lawyer", advising players to avoid playing through pain for a "tanking" team; (3) the Jets should've had the injury guarantee renegotiated given his history. The only other major addition the Jets made prior to training camp was 3rd round developmental rookie Chuma Edoga. Otherwise, they essentially asked a bunch of older, beat-up lineman who were below-average in 2018 to learn a new scheme and outperform the previous year. They tried making a last-minute signature change at the pivot by signing Ryan Kalil - but this was simply Joe Douglas trying to make his stamp... It was already a disaster waiting to happen. 
• No changes to the perimeter cornerbacks? Another mistake made by Maccagnan, but I'd argue the more glaring mistake was not disciplining Trumaine Johnson with a "conduct detrimental to the team" fine/suspension last year. Had the organization grown a pair and let it go to court, we would have been able to cut Johnson and appropriately address the position this past offseason. We did not. Instead, we brought back Roberts - who had a solid season as a 3rd corner/FS to play the perimeter and replaced Buster Skrine with Brian Poole (a good move). Our lone draft pick? A 6th round injured rookie. Again, Douglas saw the issues and did what he could to make a change through the waiver wire and by trading for Nate Hairston, but this was not enough - it was too late. 

Those two critical position groups are largely responsible for the Jets sitting at the position we are right now: 1-7. The morale of the team is lost, and it looks like there is very little fight left in this team. While a lot of that should be put on the coach, all of it can't be. And unless Christopher Johnson has a major change of heart, the coaching staff will get a second chance - even if they shouldn't. Why? Well, Adam Gase and Joe Douglas are largely united, and part of the very reason Maccagnan was fired/Gase promoted to interim GM was because of Gase's displeasure with the roster and some of Maccagnan's moves. With CJ having been warned back then, Gase has an alibi, all likely to be backed up by the coaching staff and Douglas. Factor in that Gase signed a 4 year, $22 million (ish) contract, with JD signed for another 6 years, I don't see major changes coming just yet. 

 

2019 Schedule

vs BUF - L 

vs CLE - L 

at NE - L 

BYE 

at PHI - L

vs DAL - W

vs NE - L

at JAX - L

at MIA - L

vs NYG - L

at WAS - W

vs OAK - L

at CIN - W

vs MIA - W

at BAL - L

vs PIT - L

at BUF - L

FINAL RECORD: 4-12 

 

NYJ FAs

LB Jordan Jenkins – 3 years, $27 million 

LG Alex Lewis – 3 years, $15 million

CB Brian Poole – 3 years, $12 million 

WR Demaryius Thomas – 2 years, $7.5 million 

S Rontez Miles – 2 years, $5.25 million 

TE Ryan Griffin – 1 year, $1.5 million

OL Tom Compton – 1 year, $1.5 million  

P Lachlan Edwards – 1 year, $1.5 million 

LT Kelvin Beachum

RT Brandon Shell

C Ryan Kalil

WR Robby Anderson 

QB Trevor Siemian 

RB Ty Montgomery 

LB Brandon Copeland

OT Brent Qvale

OL Tom Compton 

RB Bilal Powell

TE Daniel Brown

S Matthias Farley

 

Released

CB Trumaine Johnson ($11m savings) June-1 Cut

RG Brian Winters ($7.5m savings)

CB Daryl Roberts ($6m savings)

WR Josh Bellamy ($2m savings)

TRADE: New York Jets send DL Henry Anderson to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for their 7th round pick. 

TRADE: New York Jets send S Jamal Adams to the Seattle Seahawks for their 1st round pick (28), 2nd round pick (62 via SF), and 2021 4th round pick. 

• Reaction: currently I think there is a 50-50 shot of a trade going down. I think the Seahawks were the mystery team involved in the Adams sweepstakes, and I think they'll be one of the teams seeking to make a big splash this offseason, similar to how they have in the past. They're secondary/defense was their weakness in 2019 so adding a player the caliber of Adams could help restore their "Legion of Doom" brand and could be their missing piece in their chase for another championship. For the Jets, I don't think this trade is made due to Adams attitude or importance to the team, but simply because of Douglas's team-building philosophy. JD/Gase want to build a bully on offense, and they need resources to do that. Maye has been a lights-out safety in his own right, and the Jets feel that Adams - albeit an elite player - is a luxury in the big picture. Sad day for Jets fans, but there's a good chance it happens. 

 

Free Agency

New York Jets sign former Pittsburgh Steelers EDGE Bud Dupree 

New York Jets sign former Detroit Lions OL Graham Glasgow 

New York Jets sign former Philadelphia Eagles CB Ronald Darby 

New York Jets sign former Philadelphia Eagles OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai

New York Jets sign former Philadelphia Eagles DL Timmy Jernigan

New York Jets sign former Tennessee Titans WR Tajae Sharpe 

New York Jets sign former Buffalo Bills QB Matt Barkley  

New York Jets sign former Indianapolis Colts S Clayton Geathers 

New York Jets sign former Baltimore Ravens CB Jimmy Smith  

New York Jets sign former Atlanta Falcons OL Wes Schweitzer

 

2020 NFL DRAFT 

1(4) Tristan Wirfs, Offensive Tackle, Iowa 

1(28) Creed Humphrey, Offensive Interior, Oklahoma

2(38) Jaylon Johnson, Cornerback, Utah 

2(62) DeVonta Smith, Wide Receiver, Alabama 

3(69) Darrell Taylor, Defensive End, Tennessee 

TRADE: NYJ send 3(71) to BAL for 3(88), 4(125), and 2021 3rd round pick 

3(88) Tyler Johnson, Wide Receiver, Minnesota 

4(110) J.R. Reed, Safety, Georgia 

4(125) Alex Highsmith, Defensive End, Charlotte

5(151) Patrick Taylor Jr., Running Back, Memphis 

6(184) Essag Bassey, Cornerback, Wake Forest

7(220) J.J. Taylor, Running Back, Arizona 

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by jetskid007

[jetskid007]

Not as in-depth as my first mock, but a few notes: 

• The Jamal trade is not something I expect the Jets to pull the trigger on unless they’re presented with an offer they can’t refuse. Adding a 1 and 2 plus a mid pick in 2021 classifies as that. 
• I don’t expect us to spend nearly as much as we could or as I initially anticipated, and the Bud Dupree signing in itself could be a stretch. Why? I think Douglas is serious about building through the draft, and I think he’d prefer to save some money for 2021 for two reasons: (1) he wants to focus on building a foundation this year- getting the right players into the program that can help him build a “bully” before making marquee additions; and (2) because there’s a real possibility there will be a new coach in 2021, and a new coach will want “his guys”... besides, having a ton of resources in 2021 would make the job more attractive. I do expect us to sign at least one marquee free agent though, and without a doubt it will be an offensive lineman. Again, I have us signing Glasgow - he's been banged up, but has been a top tier RG when healthy. The allure to signing him is that he's played well at LG, C, and RG, which allows the Jets to play it by ear and start the best 5 guys come the start of the regular season. 
• I think many fans will classify this as a slow rebuild, but I think we have a chance to surprise people next year- throw all expectations out the window and like in 2006 and 2009- lead the league in effort and toughness. 

Edited November 6, 2019 by jetskid007

[Bobby816]

I'd be on board with this for sure. My only gripe would be to go after a bigger FA WR than Sharpe. I know you have us drafting 2 WRs with quality picks so the position isn't ignored. But I think we could do better than Sharpe in FA.

[jetfuel34]

I'm not buying the Adams trade . He will be here for awhile. 

[ekill08x]

Great mock as always and I think I can speak for most of us when I say we appreciate the time and effort.

Persoanlly would love this and find it realistic.

Only question I have is the Trumaine cut. I don’t think we save 11m no matter when he’s cut this year. I think we only save 3. His contract is fully guaranteed in 2020. Obviously cut him anyways but I don’t think we are saving 11.

[ekill08x]

33 minutes ago, jetfuel34 said:

I'm not buying the Adams trade . He will be here for awhile. 

I mean he’s basically screaming for it without actually saying the words “please trade me” 

[jetskid007]

1 hour ago, ekill08x said:

Great mock as always and I think I can speak for most of us when I say we appreciate the time and effort.

Persoanlly would love this and find it realistic.

Only question I have is the Trumaine cut. I don’t think we save 11m no matter when he’s cut this year. I think we only save 3. His contract is fully guaranteed in 2020. Obviously cut him anyways but I don’t think we are saving 11.

“Save” in cap language but not in real life. Essentially a post June cut allows you to spread out the dead money through the remaining years of the deal. May not happen but either way he’ll be cut 

1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

I'd be on board with this for sure. My only gripe would be to go after a bigger FA WR than Sharpe. I know you have us drafting 2 WRs with quality picks so the position isn't ignored. But I think we could do better than Sharpe in FA.

I’m looking at the way some other teams have built their receiving corps, namely SF, and adopting that method. I think Sharpe is underrated and a good fit. He’s an efficient receiver. His strengths align with what this offense needs to operate smoothly: precise route running. I think we’ll see as the season goes on that our offense will become dependent on the Herndon and Crowder, with Robby/DT become supplements to them. They’re going to have more of a rotation on the outside next year, with Tajae/DT/V.Smith/D.Smith/Tyler Johnson all competing for a spot on the roster and snaps.

In short: while I think it’s possible to add a better option, free agency isn’t necessarily littered with them. Higgins and Agholor are  probably the primary alternatives with Robinson and Robby the “young guys” who will get overpaid (a la Tyrell Williams), and the older vets will probably focus on better situations

[jetskid007]

2 hours ago, ekill08x said:

I mean he’s basically screaming for it without actually saying the words “please trade me” 

It'll be interesting to monitor how this plays out, but I think the Jets will ultimately trade him regardless if he falls in line or not... the only factor will come down to value. I really think it's 50/50. 

I don't think Adams is a problem by any means and I genuinely believe he's simply a very emotional player, but in the same breadth I don't think this regime necessarily sees him as a solution. Trading Adams wouldn't be easy, but when you factor in that you still have Maye - who has been a high level player in nearly every one of his games and will be cheaper to re-sign - it makes it a little easier to swallow.

 

[Rich51]

From what I understand, Johnson was given a 34m guarnteed contract. It included 20m bonus money, 6m base last year and 8m this year. If he is on the roster the third day of the 2020 league year, he will be guaranteed against injury his full 11m base  salary (all new money) for 2020. No way that JD lets that happen.  We will still have a cap hit for the remaining 12m , already paid, bonus money. Since we have to cut him by the third day of the league year, i don’t know if we can designate him as a Post June 1 cut. Great if we can but even if we have to take the 12m cap hit all at once we will still have a net cap savings of 3m  There will be an 11m savings fin our cash spending. That could help pay the bonus money for some other free agent.

btw good work on the off season. I really like Wirfs and Humphrey as well as WRs Smith and Johnson.

[JetsFan15]

You have Thomas going before Wirfs?  Or you like Wirfs better than Thomas?

[SDotNova]

I think you’re missing a draft pick. The Jets traded Leo for a 3rd and a conditional 4th. The Giants plan to resign Leo, so I think we’ll have their 4th. That was a great trade. That’ll be 2 top 100 picks. 
 

I like your resigning decisions. Only question mark is Robby. I expect for us to resign him. Otherwise, why would Joe D not trade him? 
 

Im curious what we do in FA. Your thought process seems reasonable. I could see us just getting 1 tier OL and a few guys after the first wave of FA. 

[jetskid007]

33 minutes ago, JetsFan15 said:

You have Thomas going before Wirfs?  Or you like Wirfs better than Thomas?

We’re splitting hairs but I think Wirfs > Thomas

Top 3 will be Burrow, Tua, Young

[jetskid007]

7 minutes ago, SDotNova said:

I think you’re missing a draft pick. The Jets traded Leo for a 3rd and a conditional 4th. The Giants plan to resign Leo, so I think we’ll have their 4th. That was a great trade. That’ll be 2 top 100 picks. 

I like your resigning decisions. Only question mark is Robby. I expect for us to resign him. Otherwise, why would Joe D not trade him? 

Im curious what we do in FA. Your thought process seems reasonable. I could see us just getting 1 tier OL and a few guys after the first wave of FA. 

Pick is conditional for 2021. 

Robby was available, but we weren’t willing to trade him away for anything less than a 3rd. I think he’ll receive a hefty contract in FA- one we may not be willing to pay. 

 

[JetsandI]

3 hours ago, Rich51 said:

From what I understand, Johnson was given a 34m guarnteed contract. It included 20m bonus money, 6m base last year and 8m this year. If he is on the roster the third day of the 2020 league year, he will be guaranteed against injury his full 11m base  salary (all new money) for 2020. No way that JD lets that happen.  We will still have a cap hit for the remaining 12m , already paid, bonus money. Since we have to cut him by the third day of the league year, i don’t know if we can designate him as a Post June 1 cut. Great if we can but even if we have to take the 12m cap hit all at once we will still have a net cap savings of 3m  There will be an 11m savings fin our cash spending. That could help pay the bonus money for some other free agent.

btw good work on the off season. I really like Wirfs and Humphrey as well as WRs Smith and Johnson.

Post June 1 designation works in the same league year, I believe.  Jets can save 11m new money and deter 8m dead money to next season if Johnson is cut on time.

[JetsandI]

7 hours ago, jetskid007 said:

Not as in-depth as my first mock, but a few notes: 

• The Jamal trade is not something I expect the Jets to pull the trigger on unless they’re presented with an offer they can’t refuse. Adding a 1 and 2 plus a mid pick in 2021 classifies as that. 
• I don’t expect us to spend nearly as much as we could or as I initially anticipated, and the Bud Dupree signing in itself could be a stretch. Why? I think Douglas is serious about building through the draft, and I think he’d prefer to save some money for 2021 for two reasons: (1) he wants to focus on building a foundation this year- getting the right players into the program that can help him build a “bully” before making marquee additions; and (2) because there’s a real possibility there will be a new coach in 2021, and a new coach will want “his guys”... besides, having a ton of resources in 2021 would make the job more attractive. I do expect us to sign at least one marquee free agent though, and without a doubt it will be an offensive lineman. Again, I have us signing Glasgow - he's been banged up, but has been a top tier RG when healthy. The allure to signing him is that he's played well at LG, C, and RG, which allows the Jets to play it by ear and start the best 5 guys come the start of the regular season. 
• I think many fans will classify this as a slow rebuild, but I think we have a chance to surprise people next year- throw all expectations out the window and like in 2006 and 2009- lead the league in effort and toughness. 

I feel the same about Jets would be a big spender but the problem is when can Jets successfully sign or not on several players for whatever price is appropriate.  Because of that, I think it is good idea to tender Robby Anderson as transition player.  Keeping him if new contract is affordable; bringing him back if Jets could not fill out holes via FA; canceling the tender if Jets successfully fill up holes with new FA signings.