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Bullet Club

What are your requirements?

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The other day I was thinking of how fast guys can shoot up the radar (Trubisky, potentially Cardale had he entered early) and get drafted high and it got me thinking what the minimum requirement for that really is. So I have a few variations of the same question for you guys. How many games does a guy need to play before you select him day one in the draft? 

1. Assuming he has elite tools and elite production 

2. Assuming he has elite tools and good production 

3. Assuming he has good tools and elite production 

Edited by Bullet Club

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1 hour ago, Bullet Club said:

The other day I was thinking of how fast guys can shoot up the radar (Trubisky, potentially Cardale had he entered early) and get drafted high and it got me thinking what the minimum requirement for that really is. So I have a few variations of the same question for you guys. How many games does a guy need to play before you select him day one in the draft? 

1. Assuming he has elite tools and elite production 

2. Assuming he has elite tools and good production 

3. Assuming he has good tools and elite production 

Obviously #1 is what the pros would prefer, but #2 is still satisfactory as the pros are looking for elite tools as a starter. Good tools is scary for drafting a prospect in round 1, as production can be a result of the system a QB plays in and those stats are often ignored when appraising a college QB's potential.

I think you have to add in intangibles to the equation if you want a solid idea of what scouts are looking for in a college QB. Intangibles are probably far more important than production when appraising a college QB.

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I prefer to have someone who started throughout college. College is about 10 games a season, so I like a guy who has started between 8 and 10 games a season and was productive throughout college.

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13 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

Obviously #1 is what the pros would prefer, but #2 is still satisfactory as the pros are looking for elite tools as a starter. Good tools is scary for drafting a prospect in round 1, as production can be a result of the system a QB plays in and those stats are often ignored when appraising a college QB's potential.

I think you have to add in intangibles to the equation if you want a solid idea of what scouts are looking for in a college QB. Intangibles are probably far more important than production when appraising a college QB.

Assume for all three questions that intangibles are 1st round worthy.

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I consider experience, but it's not at the top of my list. When considering it, I don't use a hard cap where a prospect needs X amount of games. I do that for some attributes but not for games played. For instance, if a QB is under 6'1" I'll knock them down about a round, but if they are under 6'1" I'll knock them down multiple rounds. Russell Wilson is a great example of someone who went in the 3rd Round who probably goes in the 1st if he's 6'4".

I also use games played more as confidence in the production. So say a QB has only played 8 games but has played outstanding, I'm not going to put as much into that production. Now if someone plays 30 games and is outstanding, I'm going to be a lot more confident in that production.

It doesn't really matter whether a guy is elite, great, or just good to me. Also note that lacking confidence in production doesn't necessarily mean I don't like a guy. Trubisky was still my #1 QB, for instance. Also worth noting is that it matters how a guy got his production. A guy with 13 games played with 4 games as a Sophomore, 3 games as a Junior, and 6 games as a Senior is different than a guy with 13 games as a Senior.

Edited by DraftHobbyist

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I guess more of what I'm trying to get to here is how much you need to see before you're comfortable taking a guy in the first. If a guy with elite tools who plays excellent for three games enters the draft is that enough? Cardale pushed the limit of that theory but he returned to school so we never found out.

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I don't have any requirements for anything.

Would have never touched Cardale Jones anywhere near the first round due to his reputation prior to starting. A handful of games where he dominated by surprising defenses who hadn't yet learned how to stop him and physical skills after years of toiling on the bench and spending nearly all his time playing video games. Not a chance. The fact that he hadn't yet played despite his talent was a damning sign of how he spent his time in college and how seriously he took preparing. Would some stupid franchise have picked him in the first round? Possibly. I can only speak definitively on what I would have done.

Edited by CalhounLambeau

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32 minutes ago, CalhounLambeau said:

I don't have any requirements for anything.

Cardale Jones was terrible and largely successful during a short period of time due to physical skills and defenses not knowing how to defend him. He rode the bench for years because he was notoriously lazy and had glaring flaws to his game despite his talent. The fact that he went years without playing signified everything that was wrong about him and how he played was icing on the cake if you could ignore the flash and hype.

I agree. I didn't mean to imply Cardale was an elite guy, he was just the closest thing I could think of scenario-wise.The opinions on him after that 3 game run were all over the board. There were certainly posters on this site who would've taken him round 1.

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In general, when it comes to games played, division played in, conference played in, size, background, I literally have no requirement or cut-off. I grade everyone and they end up being a number. That number gets assigned a 1st-Undrafted grade on my scale. Inexperience, size, etc may impact their score in whatever specific category but their is no disqualification.

Edited by CalhounLambeau

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54 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

I agree. I didn't mean to imply Cardale was an elite guy, he was just the closest thing I could think of scenario-wise.The opinions on him after that 3 game run were all over the board. There were certainly posters on this site who would've taken him round 1.

Sure, I know what you meant. A lot of silly folks who post here would have taken Cardale Jones way too high, no doubt. I remember debating against those folks here.

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7 hours ago, Bullet Club said:

I guess more of what I'm trying to get to here is how much you need to see before you're comfortable taking a guy in the first. If a guy with elite tools who plays excellent for three games enters the draft is that enough? Cardale pushed the limit of that theory but he returned to school so we never found out.

For me, I prefer sustained success over about 2 years just to know the one year wasn't a fluke. Once you get more than 2 years removed, I don't think that's very beneficial to look at anyways since the guy was so much younger. I don't really have a set amount of games but I guess I'd like around 8 games both seasons at least.

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On 9/12/2017 at 5:50 PM, CalhounLambeau said:

In general, when it comes to games played, division played in, conference played in, size, background, I literally have no requirement or cut-off. I grade everyone and they end up being a number. That number gets assigned a 1st-Undrafted grade on my scale. Inexperience, size, etc may impact their score in whatever specific category but their is no disqualification.

 

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