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TNF GDT - Chargers (4-5) @ Raiders (4-4)


RaidersAreOne

Who win's on TNF?  

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  1. 1. Who win's on TNF?



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This will be a super tough one. Chargers have a top 5 pass D and a middle of the pack run D. It'll be a huge test for Carr and Co. Trent Brown and Rodney Hudson are both questionable and our chances of winning go up substantially if they can suit up. Bosa scares the hell out of me so I expect a lot of 2 TE sets as usual.

It'll be a shootout because our D is absolutely horrible and we will need to try and keep up with Rivers.

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This is basically a playoff game for the Chargers & Raiders, because BUF is likely going to get into the WC with their schedule, and a 2nd team from the AFCS will emerge to get at least 9, if not 10 W's, besides the division winner. 

For the OAK O - Can the Chargers get to Carr enough to disrupt him?  The OAK pass game is predicated on getting the ball out early, so that negates the Chargers' fearsome pass rush.   Casey Hayward should negate Tyrell Williams, slot Desmond King is usually excellent, so it really comes down to RB Josh Jacobs, TE Darren Waller and the 2nd WR (?Zay Jones?) to come up and produce.  Jacobs is a given, but the question is how much.

On the LAC O side - Can OAK stop the Rivers pass game?  More importantly, can the LAC coaching staff make the right calls?   They went run-heavy vs. a GB D that has given up the 2nd highest yards in the running game since Week 4.   So they played that perfectly.  But here, the OAK D is a reverse funnel pass D - top 10 vs. run, but bottom 5 vs. pass.   Does Lynn and the new OC flip the script?    This is also a D that is terrible against pass catching RB's - so in theory, this is an Austin Ekeler game, not MG3 (who's serviceable in the pass game, but nowhere near the threat Ekeler is).

A small hidden factor - LAC finally got a healthy K back, Badgley.  That could be the difference in a close game.

Hoping we see THREE great prime time games this week - LAC @ OAK, MIN @ DAL, and of course, SEA @ SF.   I'll say LAC 27-23 in a close one.

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Raiders Offense has been consistent and straight up money since Week 4. Technically a Top 5 Offense since then. Carr is having the best year of his career, Jacobs looks like a Top 5 RB, and our Line is probably #2 to the Saints. Carr has all day back there. Although against Bosa/Melvin, he might not. 

I am worried about this being a TNF game and Jacobs body just took like a 25 hit pounding 4 days ago. He might get limited touches, which could be a deciding factor. 

Also everyone knows our defense is trash, mainly our Pass Defense. We’ll see what Philip Rivers can do, he should be able to carve us up real nice. Rivers is a beast and Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry is a mismatch on all of our CBs and LBs. 

I’m gonna go against the grain and say this turns into more of a defensive battle/not as high scoring as people think. 

23-17 Raiders. 

Confidence: Average 

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Keeping Carr clean is the most important thing in this game.  Kolton next to Richie has been next to perfect.  Looks like Trent is playing so, Ingram coming off the edge is pretty well mitigated.  I would like to see a heavy dose of JJ to the heart of the Chargers defense.  I think back to the Denver game in 2016 when Oakland stole the heart of the Broncos by driving it down their throats.  This post may not age well because we typically don't dominate the Chargers, but here's to hoping.  

 

Raiders 31 Chargers 17

JJ 25-115-1

Carr 26-37-303-3

 

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