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If you didn't think Joe Burrow was a 1st rounder last year, why would you think he's one this year?


VanS

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10 hours ago, VanS said:

Then kudos to PFF.  I'm talking to people who didn't think much of him last year (like myself).   Unlike them I still don't think much of Burrow.  I was just curious to see how people justify this huge shift on him as a player.

Yah, I just think its an example of how he's a guy who started to break out an catch eyes last year, and then fully did so this year. He's been consistent game to game, he's won big games and his accuracy pops on tape. 

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11 hours ago, VanS said:

Then kudos to PFF.  I'm talking to people who didn't think much of him last year (like myself).   Unlike them I still don't think much of Burrow.  I was just curious to see how people justify this huge shift on him as a player.

10 TDs for 1 INT (+ 3 TDs on the ground) in the last 4 games in 2018. He showed yet signs of progression to at least being draftable late. That was my opinion starting this season. Then Joe Brady's offense came and he rocks with it. His intelligence make his coaches to let him change plays on the field when he feels it. 

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19 hours ago, Drained said:

Deshaun DOES have a cannon, it was one of his knocks yeah, but it's been proven completely wrong. Yeah, he doesn't throw it as hard as Baker or Josh Allen but he can throw it very very far down field without struggle.

Also, how is his mobility a crutch for him? Have you seen him this season?

I see a guy who makes some amazing plays with his legs but also tries to extend plays too much like Big Ben and Rodgers, leading him to hold onto the ball too long and take unnecessary hits.

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14 hours ago, The LBC said:

Rivers is always a weird comparison, because with his 3/4-delivery it's always been so difficult to gauge his true velocity.  Now, granted it's pre-draft workout numbers and Lamar has since cleaned up his delivery and made it noticeably more compact, but Lamar Jackson and Watson both clocked at 49 mph velocity.  Mahomes and Baker, by comparison, hit 60.  Cam hit 56.  Trubisky hit 55 (which is my guess what Lamar's number is closer to than 49 now that he's compacted his delivery).  Goff hit 58 (which is kind of the outlier by where you start to question if velocity isn't a bit of an imperfect gauge of arm strength, but it's the best we've got for the moment).  Dak hit 54.  Wentz hit 57.  Josh Allen hit 62 (legit cannon).  When you consider that Allen represented the 100th percentile among the pool of current active QB's, for context, Watson is actually in the 2nd-percentile.

Honestly, I'd reserve the term "cannon" for guys who can hit that 60 mph benchmark is the TLDR version.

I don't know if the combine is the best barometer for arm strength.  A lot of times QBs go there with the main goal being to complete every pass, not trying to rip the ball with all they got.  I could tell Lamar, for example, was lofting a lot of his passes that day at the combine trying to make sure he completed the pass rather than trying to zip it.  Watson probably was doing the same his day at the combine.

Actual game action is the best barometer for arm strength IMO.  Especially when tight window high velocity throws are required.  And from what I saw from Deshaun at Clemson and in the NFL he's always had a plus arm.  It might not be insane like Josh Allen or Mahomes but it was clearly above average to me.  

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4 hours ago, zappa13004 said:

10 TDs for 1 INT (+ 3 TDs on the ground) in the last 4 games in 2018. He showed yet signs of progression to at least being draftable late. That was my opinion starting this season. Then Joe Brady's offense came and he rocks with it. His intelligence make his coaches to let him change plays on the field when he feels it. 

I saw draftable player as well last year.  But more in the Ryan Findley mold rather than a potential #1 overall pick.  My major issue isn't thinking he isn't an NFL caliber QB.  Its how he's been elevated to such rarified air.

IMO a player with 1st overall pick (or even high 1st round) potential tends to show that level of talent early on.  At the very least we don't see him make that leap as a 23 year old redshirt senior.  That is my big problem with Joe Burrow.  He's gone from a possibly intriguing prospect to 1st overall pick status literally overnight.  And that makes no sense to me.

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9 hours ago, VanS said:

I saw draftable player as well last year.  But more in the Ryan Findley mold rather than a potential #1 overall pick.  My major issue isn't thinking he isn't an NFL caliber QB.  Its how he's been elevated to such rarified air.

IMO a player with 1st overall pick (or even high 1st round) potential tends to show that level of talent early on.  At the very least we don't see him make that leap as a 23 year old redshirt senior.  That is my big problem with Joe Burrow.  He's gone from a possibly intriguing prospect to 1st overall pick status literally overnight.  And that makes no sense to me.

Are you talking about Kyler Murray ? :)

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1 hour ago, zappa13004 said:

Are you talking about Kyler Murray ? :)

Kyler Murray flashed superstar talent from his first game as a true freshmen at Texas A&M in 2015 against Arizona State.  He then had a incredible performance against South Carolina that year in his first career start.  Everyone knew he was talented.  He was a guy who transferred cause he was done with the coach.  He didn't transfer because he lost the starting job to an underclassmen like Joe Burrow.

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3 hours ago, VanS said:

Kyler Murray flashed superstar talent from his first game as a true freshmen at Texas A&M in 2015 against Arizona State.  He then had a incredible performance against South Carolina that year in his first career start.  Everyone knew he was talented.  He was a guy who transferred cause he was done with the coach.  He didn't transfer because he lost the starting job to an underclassmen like Joe Burrow.

Yeah, that was more a joke than anything else but Murray like Burrow, for whatever the reason is, had one great season and only one. But, when you say than Murray was done with his coach, you can't underestimated the impact of Joe Brady at LSU. In 2018 Burrow is decent at best, in 2019 with that offense he is great. Thats the main for his progression, a system that fits his skills and abilities.

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Burrow at OSU was a classic case of "wrong place/wrong time", unlike JT "right place/right time" Barrett, who had to take over after the injury to Braxton, otherwise he may never be a starting QB at OSU...at least not until he's a RS Junior.

Burrow came in as a Freshmen and RS in the 2015 season behind the infamous Cardale/Braxton/JT year, Braxton then moving to WR.

In 2016, JT takes over as a starter as a RS Junior (LOL) while Burrow backs him up.

In 2017, JT is a RS Senior starting QB, Burrow is a RS Sophomore backup. (It's also worth noting that Urban always has/always will revolve his offense around a running QB if possible)

He then breaks his thumb, and is passed on the depth chart by Dwayne Haskins (NOT a running QB ironically). In the spring, they had a very much back and forth battle, and he lost the job to Haskins. Say what you want, but Dwayne was a 1st Round QB, so losing that job isn't exactly a slight to Burrow. He finishes his degree, and transfers...as Haskins was a RS Sophomore and would either be back as the starter Joe's RS Senior year or giving Joe only 1 year as a starter, unless an underclassman beat him out for the job as well.

If both people/teams had to go back and do it again, it probably plays out the same way. Fields ends up at OSU (2 year starter at minimum) and Burrow ends up at LSU, starts for 2 full seasons getting valuable playing time and experience in lieu of riding the bench, while probably winning a Heisman, beating Bama, and getting his team into the playoff as a senior...not to mention his draft stock soaring. 

 

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He's gone from a possibly intriguing prospect to 1st overall pick status literally overnight.  And that makes no sense to me.

My nights must be shorter than yours. He has been balling out this entire season, playing near impeccable football and showing tremendous moxie. It hasn't been a night, its been months. 

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9 hours ago, zappa13004 said:

...but Murray like Burrow, for whatever the reason is, had one great season and only one. 

True.  But I could see elite talent in Murray from Day 1.  So him going #1 in the draft was no surprise.  Nobody can say Burrow flashed elite talent before this season.  

I just think most people make the mistake of thinking high rate production means top tier talent all the time.  Sometimes guys can be productive in college and not really that talented.  Joe Burrow seems to be one of those guys to me.  Never felt that way about Kyler Murray.

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