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VanS

If you didn't think Joe Burrow was a 1st rounder last year, why would you think he's one this year?

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9 minutes ago, VanS said:

I'm not that sure about this but how many successful NFL QBs don't start until their redshirt junior year at a school they didn't commit to out of high school?

If Burrow is an elite talent worthy of being a high 1st round pick then why couldn't he get playing time before he was a 22 year old redshirt junior?

Your take here also accentuates the issue with Burrow which is his late meteoric rise. 

If Brady is a HOF QB, why wasn't he one at Michigan?

4 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

There's something to be said for consistency!

I like Van. I respect his outside-the-box opinions. I think a diversity of opinions is valuable. But this is a bad take.

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3 minutes ago, VanS said:

No.  I switch my opinion if a switch is warranted (i.e. my intial impression was wrong).  For example, I thought Courtland Sutton was a product of the SMU system and not a good enough athlete at the NFL level to duplicate the skills he showed in college.  I was very wrong and it took me just one preseason game last year to realize that.   I saw how explosive and athletic he looked on an NFL field and realized I was totally wrong.

However, what I don't do is just switch because a guy has a good season statistically.  Joe Burrow looks like the same guy he was last year.  It just looks like he's playing in a better system and the players around him have improved.  He doesn't look like he's markedly better.   Most people just assume better stats means a better player.  I don't.  I look only at talent.

Joe Burrow does not at all look like the same guy he was last year to me. And if this is the same Burrow from last year, I screwed up in my impressions of him last year. His accuracy, decision making, quick release, and ability to read defenses are standing out in a major way.

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13 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Three of the four best QBs of the past 20 years (Brady, Brees, and Manning) had average arm strength and athleticism. Burrow was playing in a passing game developed off of Sean Payton's Gulf Coast Offense. He was getting the ball out quickly, making the correct decisions/reads, and throwing it accurately to all levels of the field. He also made the correct decision at the correct time when to scramble and pick up yardage, instead of holding the ball. And he was doing this against Nick Saban, who is a pretty good schemer. If you weren't impressed, I don't know what to say, man. The most important attributes for success aren't arm strength or athleticism. They're accuracy, mental acuity, and instincts in the pocket.

Brady had an average arm? But according to VanS his arm was top 10 and therefore elite.

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1 minute ago, Xenos said:

Brady had an average arm? But according to VanS his arm was top 10 and therefore elite.

Coming out of college, there was nothing impressive about Brady physically. He improved his arm strength in the NFL through working on his mechanics and body, but he has never had an elite arm.

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5 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Coming out of college, there was nothing impressive about Brady physically. He improved his arm strength in the NFL through working on his mechanics and body, but he has never had an elite arm.

I know. Brees is also another good example. He probably had the second weakest arm after Chad Pennington. The problem is VanS cares too much about physical talent and not enough about other more important traits. Some of which you already mentioned.

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2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Three of the four best QBs of the past 20 years (Brady, Brees, and Manning) had average arm strength and athleticism. Burrow was playing in a passing game developed off of Sean Payton's Gulf Coast Offense. He was getting the ball out quickly, making the correct decisions/reads, and throwing it accurately to all levels of the field. He also made the correct decision at the correct time when to scramble and pick up yardage, instead of holding the ball. And he was doing this against Nick Saban, who is a pretty good schemer. If you weren't impressed, I don't know what to say, man. The most important attributes for success aren't arm strength or athleticism. They're accuracy, mental acuity, and instincts in the pocket.

Meh. I’ll give him credit for making good decisions, but I see a lot of the combination between his scheme getting his receivers open and Alabama having a lot of defensive miscues. There were multiple times where LSU receivers are wide open in their own zip code and run into the end zone untouched by Bama players. That doesn’t take amazing pinpoint accuracy. His only amazing accuracy throw I’m still not sure how it counted with Moss having been out of bounds and not reestablishing himself in-bounds before making the reception (But perhaps college rules just don’t make sense to me).

Again I’m seeing Jared Goff to Andy Dalton. If he gets an amazing OC sure he might look good. The same can be said with many players, but Burrow is not the kind of talent I see that injects a winning culture into your franchise from day one and simply dominates his opponents. I see a QB that could have some quality seasons, but is never special at the position. Likely a top 15-20 QB that can get overrated or underrated based on the talent around him. Will make his talent look as good as they are, but won’t elevate the talent around him beyond their station.

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42 minutes ago, VanS said:

I'm not that sure about this but how many successful NFL QBs don't start until their redshirt junior year at a school they didn't commit to out of high school?

If Burrow is an elite talent worthy of being a high 1st round pick then why couldn't he get playing time before he was a 22 year old redshirt junior?

Your take here also accentuates the issue with Burrow which is his late meteoric rise. 

When you find a mold to predict QB success in the NFL, I'm sure all 32 teams would love to have your services.  But you're using so many different qualifiers to try and justify your argument.

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36 minutes ago, VanS said:

No.  I switch my opinion if a switch is warranted (i.e. my intial impression was wrong).  For example, I thought Courtland Sutton was a product of the SMU system and not a good enough athlete at the NFL level to duplicate the skills he showed in college.  I was very wrong and it took me just one preseason game last year to realize that.   I saw how explosive and athletic he looked on an NFL field and realized I was totally wrong.

However, what I don't do is just switch because a guy has a good season statistically.  Joe Burrow looks like the same guy he was last year.  It just looks like he's playing in a better system and the players around him have improved.  He doesn't look like he's markedly better.   Most people just assume better stats means a better player.  I don't.  I look only at talent.

Because it's abundantly aware that isn't the case.  You're not evaluating based on the numbers he's throwing up.  You're evaluating based on the the throws he's making.  This isn't some plug 'n play QB that is in a spread offense that is meant to boost numbers.  He's making legitimately NFL throws.  If you can't see that, I can't help you.

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21 hours ago, VanS said:

The elevation of Joe Burrow from a guy nobody talked about 6 months ago to the potential #1 overall pick is pretty funny.  Especially when you consider that he's going to turn 23 years old in a month and is currently older than LAMAR JACKSON.

My question to the Joe Burrow fans on here:  If you watched Joe Burrow last year and didn't see him as anything special, why would you think he deserves to be a 1st round pick this year or even crazier the #1 overall pick?  Did his arm get stronger? Did he get faster?  Did he start making throws you never seen before?  Or is he simply the beneficiary of a new system and better skill position players around him?

Production changes from year to year.  Traits don't.  At least not this much (i.e. taking a guy from UFA to the #1 overall pick).  I'm not saying a player can't improve from one year to the next.  I'm just saying we typically don't see these jumps happen from a player's redshirt junior to redshirt senior year.   College athletes typically make their biggest jumps from their first to second year in college.

 

I had this same question with Baker, who went from consensus mid round after junior year to consensus #1, never really got clear answer.

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1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

Joe Burrow does not at all look like the same guy he was last year to me. And if this is the same Burrow from last year, I screwed up in my impressions of him last year. His accuracy, decision making, quick release, and ability to read defenses are standing out in a major way.

He looks the same to me.  The production is the only thing thats different.

Of the throws he made yesterday, were there any that stood out?  Just cause a guy is doing a good job finding open players doesn't mean he's a better player.

The only part of Joe Burrow's game that impressed me against Alabama was his running ability.  He's a pretty good athlete.  But as a passer he doesn't stand out. 

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1 hour ago, Xenos said:

I know. Brees is also another good example. He probably had the second weakest arm after Chad Pennington. The problem is VanS cares too much about physical talent and not enough about other more important traits. Some of which you already mentioned.

I saw Teddy Bridgewater come in and lead the Saints to an undefeated record with Brees out.  I also remember when Brees was in San Diego and the Chargers used a 1st round pick on another QB three years after drafting him.

I think Sean Payton has been a bigger reason for Drew Brees success than Brees talent.

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1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

Coming out of college, there was nothing impressive about Brady physically. He improved his arm strength in the NFL through working on his mechanics and body, but he has never had an elite arm.

I don't remember watching Brady in college so I don't know about all this.  Sure he was drafted low but mistakes get made all the time in the draft.  That doesn't mean Brady wasn't impressive then.

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33 minutes ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

I had this same question with Baker, who went from consensus mid round after junior year to consensus #1, never really got clear answer.

I thought the same about Mayfield.  His rise in 2018 confused me as well.

I think people are just prisoners of the moment and they place too much emphasis on stats.  So if a guy is winning and putting up impressive stats most think he must be good.  Its hard for people to see in the moment that this is nothing more than a lil hot streak and a regression to the mean is coming. 

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50 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Because it's abundantly aware that isn't the case.  You're not evaluating based on the numbers he's throwing up.  You're evaluating based on the the throws he's making.  This isn't some plug 'n play QB that is in a spread offense that is meant to boost numbers.  He's making legitimately NFL throws.  If you can't see that, I can't help you.

Oh I watched his throws and they looked pretty routine.  Many a QB could throw into the windows Burrow threw into against Alabama.

His running ability is what shined through IMO moreso than his passing ability.  He looks like he has nice instincts in the pockets when it comes to scrambling and enough athleticism to be a factor in desgined QB run plays. 

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23 minutes ago, VanS said:

Oh I watched his throws and they looked pretty routine.  Many a QB could throw into the windows Burrow threw into against Alabama.

His running ability is what shined through IMO moreso than his passing ability.  He looks like he has nice instincts in the pockets when it comes to scrambling and enough athleticism to be a factor in desgined QB run plays. 

If it's so routine, why aren't more QBs putting up similar numbers?  Your attempt at discrediting his production both in terms of statistics as well as what you're seeing him is mind boggling.  This isn't a guy that we were talking about an UDFA a year ago.  We were talking about a guy who was a darkhorse FRP with a rather large caveat that he needed to have the production jump.  If I didn't know any better, you'd think we're talking about some G5 QB who has played mediocre until now.

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