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If you didn't think Joe Burrow was a 1st rounder last year, why would you think he's one this year?


VanS

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5 hours ago, jrry32 said:

No. I also didn't have Cam Newton rated as a first round talent before his season at Auburn. Same with Josh Jacobs, Quinnen Williams, Leighton Vander Esch, etc. Players improve. If you refuse to account for that, you're not doing a good job of evaluating them.

Cam Newton was in JUCO and a backup at Florida before his one season as a starter at Auburn.  He didn't play an entire season of Division 1 college football as a 21-22 year old redshirt junior as an afterthought.

I saw Josh Jacobs as a true freshmen at Alabama get playing time as a lightly recruited 3-star prospect.  His talents were readily apparent.  Quinnen Williams is a cautionary tale if anything given how he hasn't lived up to his draft standing thus far.  I didn't watch Leighton Vander Esch before his final year in college so I'll give you that.

I'm not saying players can't improve.  I'm saying they can't improve THIS MUCH THIS LATE in their college career.  You don't go from afterthought as a 21-22 redshirt junior to the 1st overall pick as a 22-23 year old redshirt senior.  Its a bit much.

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3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

So the only way a player can improve is through puberty? Why do NFL QBs hit their prime when they turn 28-29?

There's a difference between hitting your prime at 28-29 than going from Mitchell Trubisky your first 5 years in the NFL to Patrick Mahomes in year 6.

Huge jumps like that after so long at one level don't happen organically.

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3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

And that's the question you have to ask.  Is Burrow succeeding because of the coaching staff or was he held back because of the prior coaching staff?  I mean, we saw a night and day difference with Jared Goff with Jeff Fisher as opposed to Sean McVay.  Under Jeff Fisher, Jared Goff looked like he was another QB bust, but the first year with McVay Goff appeared to be an ascending QB.  So you have to ask yourself, is he succeeding because of Joe Brady or because it's not the OC before him?  And stats should confirm what you see on tape.

Agreed but Jared Goff isn't that best example for Joe Burrow right now.  He's looking more like the guy Jeff Fisher had now that the league has figured out McVay.

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9 hours ago, VanS said:

I'm confused.  Do you guys not watch football?  Can't you tell who can ball and who can't in a football game without needing to look at the box score?

I don't need you to recite to me what his stats are.  I could care less.  I also don't care how his stats compare to Kyler Murray.  I saw Kyler Murray's first collegiate game as a true freshmen at Texas A&M when he took over for Kyle Allen and his talent jumped off the screen.  Stop trying to convince me Joe Burrow is great.  You can't.  I've watched him play.  And if I've seen a guy play no stats you post will change my opinion. 

All I want to know is why you can't trust what you see on tape?  Why this reliance on stats?  Shouldn't talent be apparent without needing to check the box score?

So you say you watch a lot of college football?  Ok give me the 1st round picks right now in this years freshman class.  There are not many but who are them based on this first freshman season experience.  I have my list ready, you have yours?  But it is clearly a little early to call but I would say there are 13 guys who are very high level players and could totally be 1st round picks when they are juniors a few are RS FR players though.

 

PS One year does not make a career, sure some great players are great throughout, others it takes one or two seasons.   Then others are awesome as freshman and never improve and actually get a little worse over time or more exposed in what they can and cannot do.  Burrow it has taken to his final year, but so what, he is playing great when playing great matters come draft time.  The guy is a great leader, is already a professional in how he prepares and has a good arm, good athlete and will do just fine in the NFL.  Is he Tom Brady?  Well yeah if that is a bar sure he just as good as any QB prospect in the up coming draft and is playing better than them all.  You see Herbert last week?  Yeah Burrow has not looked like that all season against arguably better competition at times.

 

1 hour ago, VanS said:

There's a difference between hitting your prime at 28-29 than going from Mitchell Trubisky your first 5 years in the NFL to Patrick Mahomes in year 6.

Huge jumps like that after so long at one level don't happen organically.

Don't happen organically?  Then why did it happen to Kyler Murray last year?  And do not give me that BS you thought he would be the #1 pick in the draft when he was a freshman at A&M because no way that is actually true because he could barely complete a pass and was all run with him.  Unless you just base everything off recruiting rankings which would be even more sad.  Kyler was in a great offensive system, similar to Joe Burrow now with Joe Brady.  How is it any different?  Kyler waited his turn behind Baker and got his chance and took advantage of it.  Joe played last year, and progressed a great deal this season into becoming an elite level talent.

 

 

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4 hours ago, VanS said:

Cam Newton was in JUCO and a backup at Florida before his one season as a starter at Auburn.  He didn't play an entire season of Division 1 college football as a 21-22 year old redshirt junior as an afterthought.

I saw Josh Jacobs as a true freshmen at Alabama get playing time as a lightly recruited 3-star prospect.  His talents were readily apparent.  Quinnen Williams is a cautionary tale if anything given how he hasn't lived up to his draft standing thus far.  I didn't watch Leighton Vander Esch before his final year in college so I'll give you that.

I'm not saying players can't improve.  I'm saying they can't improve THIS MUCH THIS LATE in their college career.  You don't go from afterthought as a 21-22 redshirt junior to the 1st overall pick as a 22-23 year old redshirt senior.  Its a bit much.

And I disagree. But we also can't ignore important context. Burrow put up decent numbers last year in an antiquated LSU offense after transferring following the end of spring practices.

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4 hours ago, VanS said:

There's a difference between hitting your prime at 28-29 than going from Mitchell Trubisky your first 5 years in the NFL to Patrick Mahomes in year 6.

Huge jumps like that after so long at one level don't happen organically.

Drew Brees

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2 hours ago, Ozzy said:

So you say you watch a lot of college football?  Ok give me the 1st round picks right now in this years freshman class.  There are not many but who are them based on this first freshman season experience.  I have my list ready, you have yours?  But it is clearly a little early to call but I would say there are 13 guys who are very high level players and could totally be 1st round picks when they are juniors a few are RS FR players though.

 

PS One year does not make a career, sure some great players are great throughout, others it takes one or two seasons.   Then others are awesome as freshman and never improve and actually get a little worse over time or more exposed in what they can and cannot do.  Burrow it has taken to his final year, but so what, he is playing great when playing great matters come draft time.  The guy is a great leader, is already a professional in how he prepares and has a good arm, good athlete and will do just fine in the NFL.  Is he Tom Brady?  Well yeah if that is a bar sure he just as good as any QB prospect in the up coming draft and is playing better than them all.  You see Herbert last week?  Yeah Burrow has not looked like that all season against arguably better competition at times.

 

Don't happen organically?  Then why did it happen to Kyler Murray last year?  And do not give me that BS you thought he would be the #1 pick in the draft when he was a freshman at A&M because no way that is actually true because he could barely complete a pass and was all run with him.  Unless you just base everything off recruiting rankings which would be even more sad.  Kyler was in a great offensive system, similar to Joe Burrow now with Joe Brady.  How is it any different?  Kyler waited his turn behind Baker and got his chance and took advantage of it.  Joe played last year, and progressed a great deal this season into becoming an elite level talent.

 

 

I actually liked Kyler Murray a lot as a true freshmen at Texas A&M.  He was spectacular that year in several games (in particular against South Carolina).  Unlike most I value running ability in QBs. 

And no I don't have a list of 1st round true freshmen.  I don't watch college football as much now as I did 2-3 years ago.  However, if I follow a program closely I can tell by their sophomore year which players have elite NFL potential and which don't.  College players typically make their biggest jump from their freshmen to sophomore seasons. 

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7 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Drew Brees

See Sean Payton.  He had no problem going undefeated with Teddy Bridgewater.

I've never been a huge fan of Drew Brees because of this reason.  I think Sean Payton has been a bigger reason for his success than most like to admit.  I don't think he would be a Hall of Famer without Payton and that dome.

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3 minutes ago, VanS said:

See Sean Payton.  He had no problem going undefeated with Teddy Bridgewater.

I've never been a huge fan of Drew Brees because of this reason.  I think Sean Payton has been a bigger reason for his success than most like to admit.  I don't think he would be a Hall of Famer without Payton and that dome.

Brees' breakout season came under Schottenheimer, dude.

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5 hours ago, VanS said:

I'm not saying players can't improve.  I'm saying they can't improve THIS MUCH THIS LATE in their college career.  You don't go from afterthought as a 21-22 redshirt junior to the 1st overall pick as a 22-23 year old redshirt senior.  Its a bit much.

Why not? You say this as if Joe Burrow was ever "bad". He wasn't. He enrolled while Ohio St. was still starting Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett who Meyer had no incentive to arbitrarily bench. So Burrow redshirted, as any FR in that situation would. He was then stuck behind Barrett in 16 and 17, who turned in a fine season both times. Urban Meyer isn't one to mess with a good thing, and Barrett was giving them plenty of success. By the way, Barrett was literally setting records for them at the time, too. In 2018 he was leapfrogged by Haskins and transferred. So he got beat out by a guy who started 1 year and jumped into the 1st round. Still nothing to balk at. Haskins may have simply been a better fit for the Buckeyes O. 

So Burrow transferred. He wasn't bad in 2018, in a new system, in a conference known for bully D's, and with new teammates to gel with. Hard to call the guy an afterthought when it was only his first season. I think there are plenty who saw the potential there all the way from his recruitment through to several teams jockeying for him to transfer to them. LSU has rarely been known for being statistical wizards on offense, and he's taken it to a whole new level this year. 

Due to circumstance, there's literally nothing to go by that indicates his floor was ever truly low without being entirely unfair to the guy. 

Regardless, he isn't the first. EJ Manuel went from nobody to 1st round. Daniel Jones just did it. Ryan Finley was in college for like 6 seasons and did it. Ryan Tannehill. It's not unheard of to be an unknown for a variety of reasons before flourishing and jumping into the 1st round. 

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6 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Brees' breakout season came under Schottenheimer, dude.

I know.  Never said he wasn't a good QB.  I actually liked him on those early 2000 Chargers teams.  I just don't think he would be a 1st ballot Hall of Famer with all these passing records without Sean Payton and that dome.

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5 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

Regardless, he isn't the first. EJ Manuel went from nobody to 1st round. Daniel Jones just did it. Ryan Finley was in college for like 6 seasons and did it. Ryan Tannehill. It's not unheard of to be an unknown for a variety of reasons before flourishing and jumping into the 1st round. 

Those aren't really appealing names to be compared to you know that right?  I'm not in a real hurry to draft the next E.J. Manuel. 

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9 hours ago, VanS said:

I know.  Never said he wasn't a good QB.  I actually liked him on those early 2000 Chargers teams.  I just don't think he would be a 1st ballot Hall of Famer with all these passing records without Sean Payton and that dome.

Maybe, maybe not. But that doesn't make him any less great. And you're now admitting that system can make a massive difference in QB success. That only bolsters the arguments in favor of Burrow.

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