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If you didn't think Joe Burrow was a 1st rounder last year, why would you think he's one this year?


VanS

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2 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

@VanS can you please tell us why you DON'T like him?

I won't even make you say that you're just wrong, because I know yo'u're way too stubborn and self-absorbed to admit that...but can you at least explain why you don't think he's worthy of a #1 overall selection?

No elite physical skills essentially.

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8 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

@VanS can you please tell us why you DON'T like him?

I won't even make you say that you're just wrong, because I know yo'u're way too stubborn and self-absorbed to admit that...but can you at least explain why you don't think he's worthy of a #1 overall selection?

Nothing about him stands out.  Average size.  Average arm.  Above average athleticism.  Below average breakout age.   To me he's a shorter slightly more athletic Ryan Findley.  

Findley ended up going in the 4th round.  That's about where I think Burrow should be valued.  But we live in the world where players get overdrafted every year based on stats and hype.  I'll stick with the opinion I had of Joe Burrow last year.  I won't fall for his breakout year as a 23 year old redshirt senior.

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17 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

I wonder if DJ Chark is going to be a starter for the Jags next year...after all he wasn’t that good last year and he only has one year of production. 

DJ Chark has elite physical tools.  His size and speed are as good as it gets.  Nothing about Joe Burrow is special.

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2 hours ago, VanS said:

Nothing about him stands out.  Average size.  Average arm.  Above average athleticism.  Below average breakout age.   To me he's a shorter slightly more athletic Ryan Findley.  

Findley ended up going in the 4th round.  That's about where I think Burrow should be valued.  But we live in the world where players get overdrafted every year based on stats and hype.  I'll stick with the opinion I had of Joe Burrow last year.  I won't fall for his breakout year as a 23 year old redshirt senior.

How about his accuracy? Poise under pressure? Touch throws?

 

What stands out about Tom Brady or Drew Brees?

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3 hours ago, VanS said:

DJ Chark has elite physical tools.  His size and speed are as good as it gets.  Nothing about Joe Burrow is special.

You realize there are things more important than being an athlete with a big arm when it comes to the QB position, right? I feel like this needs to be said.

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32 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

You realize there are things more important than being an athlete with a big arm when it comes to the QB position, right? I feel like this needs to be said.

Undoubtedly, Peyton, Brady, and Brees would all not be 1st round QBs by VanS's standard. The great QBs in NFL history are accurate and have a mind for the game. They process information quickly, get the ball out quick, and can place the ball where it needs to be. It's nice to have a QB that can throw the all out of the stadium, but it's completely unnecessary to not only be good, but to be a first ballot HOF QB. It's a mental position...it's why you see [non-running] QBs improve into their 30's when physical peak is in the mid-to-late 20's.

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5 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

I can’t help but to believe that your bias (negative evaluations before this season) doesn’t allow you to see Burrow’s attributes. 

But thats my point.  If a guy doesn't jump out to you from the start then it would be wise not to go all-in on him.  Greatness is evident very quickly.  It doesn't take a guy until his redshirt senior year to show he has it.  

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5 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

How about his accuracy? Poise under pressure? Touch throws?

What stands out about Tom Brady or Drew Brees?

So you're betting on him being an outlier?  Drew Brees is unique.  There aren't many short unathletic weak arm QBs making it to the Hall of Fame.  And that's with having the good luck of being paired with a genius offensive coach like Sean Payton.

I'd rather bet on the guys with the elite tools and intangibles rather than the guys without the elite tools and hoping they have outlier careers like Brees. 

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4 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

You realize there are things more important than being an athlete with a big arm when it comes to the QB position, right? I feel like this needs to be said.

Oh I know that.  I just feel those are starting points for me when it comes to evaluating who will be successful.  I'll bet on the guys with elite tools over those without them everyday of the week.

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13 minutes ago, VanS said:

I just feel those are starting points for me when it comes to evaluating who will be successful.  I'll bet on the guys with elite tools over those without them everyday of the week.

You don't see how that could be flawed? Or how that bias could make you overlook certain good QBs without those traits? Because clearly history indicates you don't need a cannon or be an elite athlete to be an elite QB or a hall of famer. 

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18 minutes ago, VanS said:

But thats my point.  If a guy doesn't jump out to you from the start then it would be wise not to go all-in on him.  Greatness is evident very quickly.  It doesn't take a guy until his redshirt senior year to show he has it.  

But how can you say that knowing the precedent of guys like Brady, Brees, Montana, Young, and countless other that improved significantly throughout their playing careers. I’d completely agree with your statement was for running QBs, who typically peak much sooner...but pocket passers can continue to improve well into their 30s. 

Burrow isn’t a slam dunk sure thing QB, but that type of guy is unbelievably rare and shouldn’t be the standard of a 1st round QB. Burrow may not be elite at anything (though I think that his processing, accuracy, touch, and pocket presence are elite)...but the sum of the parts is really important. Manning didn’t have a cannon, but he had the mental makeup and accuracy to make every play needed to be a HOF QB. The same can be said for Brady and Brees. Meanwhile more physically gifted QBs like Cam Newton and Andrew Luck are sitting at home. Being physical isn’t always the best long term attribute. 

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23 minutes ago, VanS said:

But thats my point.  If a guy doesn't jump out to you from the start then it would be wise not to go all-in on him.  Greatness is evident very quickly.  It doesn't take a guy until his redshirt senior year to show he has it.  

I asked this before and never got an answer - why do you think QBs peak at around age 27-29?

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