If you didn't think Joe Burrow was a 1st rounder last year, why would you think he's one this year?

[MagicMT]

7 minutes ago, Fureys49ers said:

One thing I will dispute a tad is the benefit of coaching and talent around him. Not in the way you might think though. I agree that the scheme and coaching change in LSU has brought about a dramatic change on the offense. Where people lose me is why is this a knock? So you’re telling me a college QB can understand, execute, and flourish (inside of the scheme and also when things break down on any given down) in a very pro style scheme, game plan and information platform and this is a knock on him? Isn’t that usually why we don’t see a true QBs talent in the NFL for at least a couple years? Cause they’re still learning how to do what Joe has been doing for a year already, having proven extremely successful at it? Now some might argue that because of this NFL like scheme that they are far more advanced and college defenses aren’t caught up to it so there’s an advantage there. Sure, that’s valid but the guys just destroyed very good defenses littered with NFL talent, I think it was seven top 10 teams they played this year or some ridiculous number. He’s done it to everyone, game in and game out, and produced at level unheard of. He’s not just getting by, he’s making the top programs and the top level of talent that feeds the NFL and then becomes the next “great” players of the NFL look silly and outmatched completely. 
As far as the talent around him goes, unless I’m mistaken, aren’t all these players the same players he had last year? I didn’t hear much about all of the LSU talent then. I’m curious as to what changed. Could it be that the scheme is helping them as well?

Man, I wish I could have been as succinct and precise as you! That's a golden post right there. 
(on a side note, maybe my post count isn't high enough but how do you give likes/footballs? This more than deserves it) 

[mse326]

12 minutes ago, VanS said:

Ever heard of Baker Mayfield?

You're confusing completion percentage with accuracy

[VanS]

13 minutes ago, MagicMT said:

That's absolutely correct.
But what if Joe Burrow is phenomenal in that aspect of the game too? Would it change your evaluation of him?

Sure.  If Joe Burrow is Peyton Manning mentally then yes he could turn out to be better than I am forecasting.  But that's similar to thinking a guy with Michael Jordan's work ethic and determination comes along every year.  The only guy to ever match Jordan in that regard was Kobe Bryant.  I doubt Joe Burrow is the Kobe to Peyton's Jordan.  Not saying he can't be a hard worker in the film room.  But being Peyton Manning mentally is not something I ever expect to see again.

[Fureys49ers]

7 minutes ago, VanS said:

I never make judgments on things I have yet to see.

I lied, but I have to comment on this and then I’m done. 
 

YES, you in fact do. You make snap judgements on players whole careers off of their first game as you’ve said numerous times before. In fact, you’ve stated vigorously that that’s pretty much the extent of your scouting.

Edited January 14, 2020 by Fureys49ers

[MagicMT]

37 minutes ago, Ragnarok said:

Ok...so he has Mixon and Boyd.  Green is old and done.  Ross is trash.  Tate might be solid.  

Burrow, then Kmet, then the best OL or WR.

That should be a dream for Cinci.  Plus they get Jonah and Corey, both of whom they had for a combined 4 games all year?

I don't know about Green being done or Ross being trash. That seems haaaaarsh! 
I haven't seen all their snaps but for the limited action I've seen of Ross he looked like a good WR3 to my eyes. 
Concerning AJ Green we'll see, you don't think he could come back as a good WR2 next to Boyd? His days of top10 WR are done but he probably still have some left in the tank. 
Jonah and Corey getting back next year should definitely help out the OL (hard to get worse). TE is a need, as is LB. 
 

25 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

Just thinking about Burrow throwing to AJ Green has a big smile on my face because Im a big Green fan and I love Burrow. I think if Green gets back healthy he could have a big season. I remember when Reggie Wayne looked washed up the year before the Colts drafted Luck. Then when the Colts got the 1st overall pick and took Luck that season Wayne had a big year with Luck and looked like he did when he had Peyton. So I think if Green is still with the Bengals (assuming they dont trade him), I think Green will thrive with Burrow big time and its going to be instantly. So Im looking at Green in all my fantasy leagues as a steal if Burrow goes to the Bengals and Green is still with the Bengals and healthy. 

The situation is kinda similar, true! I too think that Green still has a couple of good years left

Edited January 14, 2020 by MagicMT

[VanS]

10 minutes ago, MagicMT said:

I get what you're saying. And it is true that Josh Allen has ENORMOUS potential and one of the best arm in the NFL right now. 
Thing is, for every WOW play he makes, he will miss a routine play a drive later in the same game. Maybe it is coachable, maybe it's not. 
And that's the point. Maybe Josh Allen is physically way more impressive than most other NFL QBs, and maybe he oozes potential and greatness when he throws the ball 60yds downfield, but if he can't constantly hit his receivers and go through his progressions then he is just not a top tier QB. 
(BTW I love Josh Allen I just don't think that physical traits are not as important when it comes to the QB position). 

I think Josh Allen's consistency issues are overblown.  He's got a gunslinger mentality.  Its not about a lack of ability to be accurate.  Its about balancing a good level of aggression as well as being mindful to not hurt your team more than you're helping them.  Right now he's carrying a bad offense at Buffalo in terms of personnel.  I'm also not that big on Brian Daboll.  Better talent around him as well as potentially a better offensive mind and I think he can easily be the best QB in the NFL.  Even without perfect conditions I still think he can be the type of QB that consistently takes his team to the playoffs.  He's that good in my eyes.

[Fureys49ers]

9 minutes ago, VanS said:

I think Josh Allen's consistency issues are overblown.  He's got a gunslinger mentality.  Its not about a lack of ability to be accurate.  Its about balancing a good level of aggression as well as being mindful to not hurt your team more than you're helping them.  Right now he's carrying a bad offense at Buffalo in terms of personnel.  I'm also not that big on Brian Daboll.  Better talent around him as well as potentially a better offensive mind and I think he can easily be the best QB in the NFL.  Even without perfect conditions I still think he can be the type of QB that consistently takes his team to the playoffs.  He's that good in my eyes.

I hate to do this again, but the contradiction is strong with this one. So you’re saying that all the detractors for Joe  Burrow are exactly what’s needed to make this all world talent Josh Allen, who has quite grown on me, a good QB in the NFL? Needs better weapons and needs a good offensive mind as a coach? Which is completely unseen up to this point yet we’re marking predictions and judgement calls on that that is in fact all he needs to be successful in the NFL? What we have seen is Joe be successful with it, but with a snap judgement made of him prior to seeing anything beyond that initial moment Joe doesn’t measure up? It’s confusing following this hole you’ve dug. 
 

To be perfectly honest, I’m a Cal/Niner, have no dog in this fight and am just enjoying a great game of football and performance when I see one. Who knows what Allen or Burrow will end up being in the NFL, I’m more or less trying to figure out what is truth in these posts and what’s just said to fit a narrative at a time of question?

Edited January 14, 2020 by Fureys49ers

[VanS]

12 minutes ago, Fureys49ers said:

So one young QB has an off year and the complete meaning, existence and usage of a word means nothing to you? Haha the way in which you see football and more than likely the world is so black and white, so limiting and skewed it’s insane.

Most of this was unnecessary, my b. I’m just boggled with the thought process, or lack there of, behind it. I think that concludes my time here head butting this wall.

I think accuracy is very difficult to judge.  Its why I rarely ever mention it when evaluating a player.  Guys who most think are accurate in college constantly start to be inaccurate in the NFL (i.e. Mayfield, Mariota, Rosen) while guys who people say are inaccurate in college turn out to be accurate in the NFL (i.e. Lamar, Prescott). 

I would rather just watch for game changing talent.  For example, I loved Lamar as a prospect despite his inconsistency throwing the ball because he could change the game with his athleticism at the drop of a hat.  What he had was something nobody could teach and it was something that would be there for him in the NFL regardless of who his coach was or who he had as teammates.  I value something like that way more than what Baker Mayfield did in college when he was completing all those passes in the Big 12 with receivers running open thanks to Lincoln Riley's scheme.

Stuff you can't teach is more important to me than success created by great coaching or great teammates.

[VanS]

19 minutes ago, mse326 said:

You're confusing completion percentage with accuracy

Did you not watch any Browns games this year?  Mayfield's accuracy was awful.  The commentators calling the games were constantly pointing it out.

[MagicMT]

10 minutes ago, VanS said:

 Better talent around him as well as potentially a better offensive mind and I think he can easily be the best QB in the NFL.  

That would take a tremendous leap. There's a guy in KC who I heard is pretty good. And still young. 
Or a QB in Baltimore that had the MVP season that Josh Allen would have in a perfect world. Or even my guy R. Wilson. 
I think we just view differently the most important attributes necessary for a QB to be successful/the best. 
But thanks for engaging in the discussion, I love your takes even though sometimes they seem outrageous to me
 

[Fureys49ers]

5 minutes ago, VanS said:

I think accuracy is very difficult to judge.  Its why I rarely ever mention it when evaluating a player.  Guys who most think are accurate in college constantly start to be inaccurate in the NFL (i.e. Mayfield, Mariota, Rosen) while guys who people say are inaccurate in college turn out to be accurate in the NFL (i.e. Lamar, Prescott). 

I would rather just watch for game changing talent.  For example, I loved Lamar as a prospect despite his inconsistency throwing the ball because he could change the game with his athleticism at the drop of a hat.  What he had was something nobody could teach and it was something that would be there for him in the NFL regardless of who his coach was or who he had as teammates.  I value something like that way more than what Baker Mayfield did in college when he was completing all those passes in the Big 12 with receivers running open thanks to Lincoln Riley's scheme.

Stuff you can't teach is more important to me than success created by great coaching or great teammates.

Everyone of those QB listed has been in the league for less than 5 years outside or Mariota still playing on rookie contracts. It’s a bit early to predict what these guys are and forever will be in the NFL. Especially someone as yourself who doesn’t make judgements on what they have not seen yet, right? 
 

To the last part of this post, you are contradicting yourself again by saying your more interested in what coaches can’t do for these guys and no matter the teammates but yet a few posts ago state that’s exactly what Josh Allen needs. So which is it?

Edited January 14, 2020 by Fureys49ers

[VanS]

17 minutes ago, Fureys49ers said:

I lied, but I have to comment on this and then I’m done. 
 

YES, you in fact do. You make snap judgements on players whole careers off of their first game as you’ve said numerous times before. In fact, you’ve stated vigorously that that’s pretty much the extent of your scouting.

Come on now.  You know what I meant.  Obviously when we are talking about projecting players from one level to the next its a prediction/guess.  Everyone does it.  The question you asked was for me to comment on if Burrow has success in the NFL.  Obviously I need to see what that success looks like to tell you where I went wrong.  I can't predict beforehand why I was wrong if I don't see how Burrow does in the NFL.  If I knew how I was gonna be wrong then maybe I wouldn't be so steadfast on Burrow not panning out.  I would couch my prediction with that possibility in mind.

[Fureys49ers]

7 minutes ago, VanS said:

Come on now.  You know what I meant.  Obviously when we are talking about projecting players from one level to the next its a prediction/guess.  Everyone does it.  The question you asked was for me to comment on if Burrow has success in the NFL.  Obviously I need to see what that success looks like to tell you where I went wrong.  I can't predict beforehand why I was wrong if I don't see how Burrow does in the NFL.  If I knew how I was gonna be wrong then maybe I wouldn't be so steadfast on Burrow not panning out.  I would couch my prediction with that possibility in mind.

But that’s the thing and main draw for Burrow for me personally at least, we’re seeing the guy get the “NFL experience” in college with the coaching, scheme and talent, and the dude is KILLING it. We are getting to see what he can be with what usually can only be predicted or guessed at. We are watching how successful and dominant he can be given NFL coaching and talent around him. 
 

What I was more commenting on though is that you make a snap judgement of a player from the first time you see them and they forever are that player you initially see. Without any further knowledge or data to include. That is in fact making a judgement on all the things about said player, before in fact seeing everything. 

Edited January 14, 2020 by Fureys49ers

[VanS]

31 minutes ago, Fureys49ers said:

I hate to do this again, but the contradiction is strong with this one. So you’re saying that all the detractors for Joe  Burrow are exactly what’s needed to make this all world talent Josh Allen, who has quite grown on me, a good QB in the NFL? Needs better weapons and needs a good offensive mind as a coach? Which is completely unseen up to this point yet we’re marking predictions and judgement calls on that that is in fact all he needs to be successful in the NFL? What we have seen is Joe be successful with it, but with a snap judgement made of him prior to seeing anything beyond that initial moment Joe doesn’t measure up? It’s confusing following this hole you’ve dug.

To be perfectly honest, who knows what Allen or Burrow will end up being in the NFL, I’m more or less trying to figure out what is truth in these posts and what’s just said to fit a narrative at a time of question?

You need to stop with this silly parsing.  Obviously ones teammates play a part in your success in a team sport.  Michael Jordan was easily the best player in the NBA by 1988 but he didn't win his first title until 1991.  He needed his teammates to raise their level of play before he broke through.  When I knock a player for the talent around them its because I am trying to tell you where I gauge their talent to be (all things being equal).  A lesser player can have more team success if he has better personnel around him.  A greater player can have less team success if he has worse personnel around him.  Make things equal between the two then I believe the more talented player will have more success.

So when I talk up Josh Allen I'm trying to tell you I don't think many other QBs could do what he did for Buffalo's offense this year given how deficient the talent was.  Obviously this is a difficult experiment to run in real life but for me this is how I mentally gauge players.  Give him more talent and he will have more success in that environment than most other players because he's more talented.  I'm of the simple belief that all things being equal the more talented player will have more success.  Its just that things are never ever really that equal in team sports which is why guys can have success that diverges from their actual talent (i.e Michael Jordan needing to wait until 1991 before he wins a championship).

Edited January 14, 2020 by VanS

[MagicMT]

3 minutes ago, Fureys49ers said:

To the last part of this post, you are contradicting yourself again by saying your more interested in what coaches can’t do for these guys and no matter the teammates but yet a few posts ago state that’s exactly what Josh Allen needs. So which is it?

It is contradictory, isn't it? Not busting on you Vans. 
Burrow has a great coaching staff and great weapons and somehow that reflects poorly on him but J. Allen having an average coaching staff and average weapons and not achieving that much with them is a good thing?