Jump to content

If you didn't think Joe Burrow was a 1st rounder last year, why would you think he's one this year?


VanS

Recommended Posts

Just my humble opinion...For any college QB I look at accuracy, decision making ( being quick and right) and arm strength.  I thought Russel Wilson would be very good based on these and I think Burrow will be good on the same.  There are not many CFB QBs that have all of the above.  The really good ones have at least 2.  Decision making is the separator in most cases.  He is also coming from a pro style offense.  Not that the spread has not produced great QBs but it helps to see that he does not need to be coached in progressions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, VanS said:

Sure.  If Joe Burrow is Peyton Manning mentally then yes he could turn out to be better than I am forecasting.  But that's similar to thinking a guy with Michael Jordan's work ethic and determination comes along every year.  The only guy to ever match Jordan in that regard was Kobe Bryant.  I doubt Joe Burrow is the Kobe to Peyton's Jordan.  Not saying he can't be a hard worker in the film room.  But being Peyton Manning mentally is not something I ever expect to see again.

I think that Burrow is a more athletic and physically gifted QB than Peyton Manning. His arm is at least as strong, and he's  a significantly better athlete. I think that you are underrating Burrow as an athlete quite a bit. He's not Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, or Cam Newton, but he certainly can be an Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson type of athlete.

And sure he can be just as hard of a worker...Brady and Brees put in just as much time as Peyton put in. I'm sure that Rodgers also puts in lots of work, though I do think that he gets by on ability more. But Burrow certainly looks like he expects greatness. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't enter the NFL and expect to be the best...I'd be very surprised if he doesn't put in the work.

As bad of a franchise that the Bengals are...I'd be very surprised if they don't take a significant step forward with Burrow next year. I also wouldn't be surprised if a team pays a hefty price to trade for Burrow...Saints included.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think that most of us, myself included, look at Burrow and buy into him because of the "sum is greater than the parts" portion. Nothing he is/does physically WOWS you. He's got an average arm, average frame, is barely a plus athlete at the QB position in the NFL, will be 23/24 as a rookie, and really only has 1 year of elite film/production. That said, here's what he does bring/have:

*Great/elite accuracy

*Great/elite anticipation

*Fantastic ability pre-snap

*The ability to go through progressions quickly/decisively

*Good from the pocket, navigating pressure from the middle, or off platform/outside of the pocket

*Huddle presence/leadership skills

I'm not sure what his "ceiling" is, but his floor is, IMO barring injury, a solid starting QB in the NFL for 8+ years.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

I think that Burrow is a more athletic and physically gifted QB than Peyton Manning. His arm is at least as strong, and he's  a significantly better athlete. I think that you are underrating Burrow as an athlete quite a bit. He's not Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, or Cam Newton, but he certainly can be an Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson type of athlete.

And sure he can be just as hard of a worker...Brady and Brees put in just as much time as Peyton put in. I'm sure that Rodgers also puts in lots of work, though I do think that he gets by on ability more. But Burrow certainly looks like he expects greatness. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't enter the NFL and expect to be the best...I'd be very surprised if he doesn't put in the work.

As bad of a franchise that the Bengals are...I'd be very surprised if they don't take a significant step forward with Burrow next year. I also wouldn't be surprised if a team pays a hefty price to trade for Burrow...Saints included.

Joe Burrow is awesome.

 

His athleticism is severely underrated.

 

His arm strength is overrated. He's not nearly as good as Peyton Manning from a physical standpoint. Manning's arm was clearly better, IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

I think that Burrow is a more athletic and physically gifted QB than Peyton Manning. His arm is at least as strong, and he's  a significantly better athlete. I think that you are underrating Burrow as an athlete quite a bit.

There is no point of engaging. There is no point in him conceding anything Burrow does well. No matter how well he plays, no matter how many translatable NFL throws/plays he makes at the collegiate level, no matter what NFL success he finds, it doesn't matter because @VanS says he doesn't have elite physical traits; and at the end of the day he'll use any excuse (coaching, scheme, team mates) to discredit his overall evaluation/ability because it doesn't fit the narrative of his original (incredibly ignorant) assessment. 

Any legitimate NFL evaluator/coach would laugh at the sight of this thread. It's went from entertaining to truly embarrassing at this point.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said:

Joe Burrow is awesome.

 

His athleticism is severely underrated.

 

His arm strength is overrated. He's not nearly as good as Peyton Manning from a physical standpoint. Manning's arm was clearly better, IMO.

I'm not so sure about that. Peyton didn't have a rocket arm. He had a solid-to-good arm. I think that Burrow is definitely in the ball park. And his touch on long throws...good gracious, just a thing of beauty.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

What? Young Manning had a whip.

+1

People mostly remember 2012-2015 Peyton.  But Peyton from 1998-mid 2000's could launch it with the best of them.  The neck injury really took some of that away, same as what happened to Carson Palmer with his elbow injury.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Except accuracy matters on routine throws too. And I don't mean just throwing a catchable ball. I mean putting the ball in the right spot to avoid the defender and giving your WR the ability to run after the catch. 

Agreed.  And I don't see much difference every Sunday between most QBs on that front.  The biggest difference I see in QBs is when it comes to reading the defense and making the decision of where to throw.  The actual mechanics of delivering the ball are very similar for most QBs.   I think people just like to hype up accuracy when its the trait with the least variability among QBs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, jrry32 said:

What type of craziness is this? You think a young QB having a down year means the NFL figured them out? Definitely don't look back at the careers of a number of franchise QBs, including Peyton Manning. Your QB takes are just so bad, dude.

If Goff and Mayfield turn it around I will take it back.  But as of now I consider both to be what they showed themselves to be this year.  Which is below average. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

And sure he can be just as hard of a worker...Brady and Brees put in just as much time as Peyton put in. I'm sure that Rodgers also puts in lots of work, though I do think that he gets by on ability more. But Burrow certainly looks like he expects greatness. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't enter the NFL and expect to be the best...I'd be very surprised if he doesn't put in the work.

Did you watch the NFL 100 show on QBs?  Did you hear how Belichick talked about Peyton Manning?  Did you hear what Collinsworth said about watching the Colts practice?

Nobody was like Peyton Manning.  He was essentially the offensive coordinator and QB at the same time.  He designed game plans.  He ran the offense during practice.  Even Brady was shocked when he heard this.  Both Brady and Brees have genius coaches that crafted the offense.  They were the ones who were trying to outduel the opposing defensive coordinators.  With Peyton it was him versus Belichick.

Sorry but Peyton Manning's mind is unmatched in the history of the game.  Brady, Brees, or whoever else you wanna name doesn't come close.  Watch the NFL 100 show on QBs.  It'll blow your mind.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, VanS said:

If Goff and Mayfield turn it around I will take it back.  But as of now I consider both to be what they showed themselves to be this year.  Which is below average. 

Uh huh. Here are the second through fourth seasons of two QBs:
QB A
29-19 record
1031/1651
62.4% completion percentage
12,679 passing yards (4226 per year)
7.7 YPA
85 passing TDs (28 per year)
53 Ints (18 per year)
89.9 passer rating

QB B
33-14 record
1054/1664
63.3% completion percentage
13,130 passing yards (4377 per year)
7.9 YPA
82 passing TDs (27 per year)
35 Ints (12 per year)
95.4 passer rating

QB A was Peyton Manning. QB B is Jared Goff. Both were 23 to 25 years old during those stretches. There are only 5 QBs in NFL history who posted 10,000+ passing yards, 80+ passing TDs, and a 95+ passer rating over their second through fourth seasons in the NFL. They are: Kurt Warner, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Dan Marino, and Jared Goff. I expect Patrick Mahomes (and maybe Deshaun Watson) to join the club next year.

http://pfref.com/tiny/YwZ9S

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...