If you didn't think Joe Burrow was a 1st rounder last year, why would you think he's one this year?

[Xenos]

16 hours ago, VanS said:

See Sean Payton.  He had no problem going undefeated with Teddy Bridgewater.

I've never been a huge fan of Drew Brees because of this reason.  I think Sean Payton has been a bigger reason for his success than most like to admit.  I don't think he would be a Hall of Famer without Payton and that dome.

Couple of things:

1) Teddy Bridgewater is actually a decent QB. And Payton's scheme certainly fit him better than Norv Turner's

2) I find it curious that for someone who supposedly watches the tape and ignore stats, that you cannot see why this team went undefeated for those few games this year. It probably helped that the Saints are a much more balanced team now (ie. defense and running attack) compared to the past where they have relied much more on Brees and his arm.

[Xenos]

Not saying Burrows will be Brady. Doubt that ever happens for a long long time. But here are snippets of what was said about Brady according to Bob McGinn:

https://theathletic.com/1235430/2019/09/25/the-mcginn-files-i-dont-like-him-smart-guy-thats-it-what-they-said-about-tom-brady-before-the-2000-draft/

Quote

“Very accurate, good toughness, good leadership,” said Bill Rees, at the time the director of college scouting for the Chicago Bears. “Has a chance to be a good player in the league in time. I think he’d be a real solid backup initially and end up growing into a starter.”

The late Ron Hughes, the vice president of player personnel for the Detroit Lions, was known to be hard on players in his backyard but saw something in Brady.

“Interesting, interesting guy,” said Hughes. “He looks like one of them poles you hang coats on. He’s got big knobs on his shoulders. But this guy is a very good deep passer. He’s highly competitive. He can’t run worth a lick but he has enough where he can step out of the way of people.”

 

Quote

“He had that great bowl game but I think he’s just very common,” said the Midwest scout for an NFC team. “He’s a bony, very thin kind of guy. God, you can see his ribs on his build. His arm is just adequate.

“That bowl game against Alabama, he was just unconscious. Other than that, I didn’t like him. One thing he doesn’t do is force a lot of balls. He competed and hung in there.”

 

Quote

Here was the scout’s summary of Brady’s football ability: “Tough, will take hit to deliver the ball. Durable, but not real strong. Not overly quick setting up. Comes on balance to throw. Doesn’t throw a tight ball; it waffles a lot. Puts lots of air under his deep balls. Lacks deep-ball accuracy; will underthrow. Limited pocket movement. Has weight down to improve his quickness and mobility. Can throw on the move. Questionable read ability. At times, I think he predetermines his throws. Lacks accuracy; sprays the ball.”

Here was his summary of Brady’s NFL potential: “Lacks nimbleness and foot quickness in the pocket. Not a runner or a scrambler. Labors. Has winning ways. Can bring them back. Not real gifted or natural as a passer. Does not throw a tight ball. Does not have a big-time arm. Backup at best; don’t see him as a starter. Worth bringing to camp. May make some teams.”

 

Quote

One day after the Patriots won the first of their six Super Bowls in February 2002, Belichick spelled out in detail just how much Brady had developed since his draft day. It’s probable Belichick would say many of the same things about his quarterback at age 42 that he did at age 24.

“When Tom came to training camp last year (2001) everybody right away saw the dramatic improvement Tom made,” Belichick told reporters the morning after beating the St. Louis Rams, 20-17, in New Orleans. “I’m not sure I’ve seen any player improve as much as Tom has. It’s so gratifying to use Tom as an example for the younger players …

“One of the things that **** Rehbein (the Patriots quarterbacks coach who played an instrumental role in the team drafting Brady and died in August 2001) and I talked to Tom about was No. 1, his overall body strength, gaining weight and gaining more strength in the pocket, and Tom worked diligently in the weight room.

“Secondly was his throwing mechanics. There were some things we felt he needed to do a better job of in terms of his footwork and mechanically throwing the ball. He’s worked so hard on that and reading defenses and understanding our offensive system.

“Nobody deserves this more than Tom Brady because no one on our team worked harder than Tom Brady.”

 

Edited November 27, 2019 by Xenos

[VanS]

5 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Maybe, maybe not. But that doesn't make him any less great. And you're now admitting that system can make a massive difference in QB success. That only bolsters the arguments in favor of Burrow.

Not for me.  I want to draft the most talented player.  Not the one who we need to put in the ideal scenario to get the most out of.

[ronjon1990]

15 hours ago, VanS said:

Those aren't really appealing names to be compared to you know that right?  I'm not in a real hurry to draft the next E.J. Manuel. 

That means literally nothing. Being a 1st round pick isn't a guarantee of actually being good in the NFL. Being a good college QB isn't a perfect indicator of being a good NFL QB. Being a decent college QB isn't indicative of being at all sub par. Matt Cassell didn't even play QB in college and yet he still had a decent NFL career at one point. 

You said someone doesn't improve THAT MUCH, enough to go from "afterthought" to 1st rounder. But history says otherwise. It's about the Draft, not how their careers ultimately play out. 

[ronjon1990]

5 hours ago, Xenos said:

 I find it curious that for someone who supposedly watches the tape and ignore stats, that you cannot see why this team went undefeated for those few games this year. It probably helped that the Saints are a much more balanced team now (ie. defense and running attack) compared to the past where they have relied much more on Brees and his arm.

He thinks Josh Dobbs is going to be the best QB from his class, yet doesn't understand why Joe Burrow is getting 1st overall hype. How much tape do you think he really watches? 

[Heinz D.]

On 11/9/2019 at 11:16 PM, VanS said:

I'm not saying a player can't improve from one year to the next. 

Yeah, you're actually saying if that player is Joe Burrow he clearly CAN'T improve from one year to the next.

Everyone else who follows football, however, disagrees with you. 

[Xenos]

1 hour ago, VanS said:

Not for me.  I want to draft the most talented player.  Not the one who we need to put in the ideal scenario to get the most out of.

You mean like Lamar Jackson? The guy who is literally operating out of a specific system to maximize his potential?

[Ozzy]

39 minutes ago, Xenos said:

You mean like Lamar Jackson? The guy who is literally operating out of a specific system to maximize his potential?

That is what I thought of as well, Lamar Jackson who basically plays with 6 offensive lineman ahead of him if you count the 280+ pound Ricard who is basically a OG playing FB/HB.  Then three very good solid running backs to rotate in and out.  Three solid tight ends who can rotate in and out or play a two TE set a variety of different ways.  Oh and a defense that is good at getting after the quarterback and creating turnovers and an offensive coordinator that had a similar offense designed for Colin Kaepernick when they went to the Super Bowl.  

 

Guys totally develop at different rates, George Kittle, Danielle Hunter, Michael Thomas etc are far superior Pro players than they college players, especially Kittle.  Alejandro Villanueva was a TE at Army and has developed into a Pro bowl player, same with Jason Peters who will probably be in the Hall of Fame one day, he was just a jumbo TE in college.  Or JJ Watt who took awhile in college to develop into a great player as a junior in college and took it to another level in the NFL.  Not everyone is great early in their college career, sure it sometimes matters about being great for a long period of time but as long as they are developed well enough when they go out for the draft that is all that really matters.  

 

[jrry32]

3 hours ago, VanS said:

Not for me.  I want to draft the most talented player.  Not the one who we need to put in the ideal scenario to get the most out of.

You often can't divorce talent from scheme. There aren't many guys in football who truly transcend scheme. I want to draft a guy whose potential I can maximize in my scheme. That's what successful teams do.

[VanS]

4 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

It's about the Draft, not how their careers ultimately play out. 

Not to me.  I could care less where a guy is drafted.  I care about what they do on the next level.

[VanS]

3 hours ago, Xenos said:

You mean like Lamar Jackson? The guy who is literally operating out of a specific system to maximize his potential?

No.  Lamar Jackson is uber talented.  Even if he didn't play in this scheme he would still have a career like Michael Vick (which is nothing to sneeze at).

I'm talking about guys who have little in the way of physical talent (like Drew Brees) that succeed because of scheme and who they have around them.  Lamar is not that.

[VanS]

1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

You often can't divorce talent from scheme. There aren't many guys in football who truly transcend scheme. I want to draft a guy whose potential I can maximize in my scheme. That's what successful teams do.

Deshaun Watson is a guy whose talent transcends scheme.  Its why he was able to carry a team with such poor offensive line play to the playoffs last year.  Compare that to a Baker Mayfield who doesn't have transcendant talent.  He looks great when his o-line is great.  But then he looks bad when his line is bad.

The benefit of taking the more talented player is there is less downward variance in performance.  Even if the pieces around Deshaun Watson aren't competent he has the talent to transcend it.  A player who lacks elite talent like Baker Mayfield is at the mercy of the pieces you put around him.

Edited November 28, 2019 by VanS

[jrry32]

6 minutes ago, VanS said:

No.  Lamar Jackson is uber talented.  Even if he didn't play in this scheme he would still have a career like Michael Vick (which is nothing to sneeze at).

I'm talking about guys who have little in the way of physical talent (like Drew Brees) that succeed because of scheme and who they have around them.  Lamar is not that.

This is an objectively dumb argument. Brees didn't succeed because of scheme and the players around him any more than Deshaun Watson or Lamar Jackson has. You suffer from the misconception that physical talent makes successful QBs. It doesn't. Skill, instincts, and mental acuity makes successful QBs. That's why Colin Kaepernick never came close to being Drew Brees.

1 minute ago, VanS said:

Deshaun Watson is a guy whose talent transcends scheme.  Its why he was able to carry a team with such poor offensive line play to the playoffs last year.  Compare that to a Baker Mayfield who doesn't have transcendant talent.  He looks great when his o-line is great.  But then he looks bad when his line is bad.

The benefit of taking the more talented player is there is less variance in performance.  Even if the pieces around Deshaun Watson aren't competent he has the talent to transcend it.  A player who lacks elite talent like Baker Mayfield is at the mercy of the pieces you put around him.

You assume Watson does. There's not sufficient evidence to support that point right now. And you speak of the benefit of taking the more physically talented player. But it's impossible to ignore that three of the four best QBs of this generation were nothing special in terms of physical talent. Of course, you have excuses for why that is.

[Breesus mode]

Why is it so hard for some people to understand the mental side of the game is the most important for a QB.

Edited November 28, 2019 by Breesus mode

[Jlowe22]

On 11/26/2019 at 8:06 PM, VanS said:

See Sean Payton.  He had no problem going undefeated with Teddy Bridgewater.

I've never been a huge fan of Drew Brees because of this reason.  I think Sean Payton has been a bigger reason for his success than most like to admit.  I don't think he would be a Hall of Famer without Payton and that dome.

Sean Payton is certainly a big reason for success.  Especially offensively, he's kept a solid at worst group around Brees.

Saints went undefeated with Teddy while scoring 17, 13, 12,(9 in a loss), so you're being dishonest to pretend like defense and special teams didn't make the most valuable contribution during that time.  I love Teddy and hope he stays after Brees, but he wasn't exactly lighting the scoreboard up.  To be fair, neither is Brees this year, but he's almost 41 and the Saints have a much better points/drive under Brees than Bridgewater.  And prime Brees can't even compare.  It doesn't take a very strenuous eye test to see that Brees is far more accurate than Bridgewater, makes quicker decisions, and commands the offense better.  Teddy has a stronger arm and isn't a slouch in those areas, but he's not Brees.  At least not yet.

Brees also had his turn around season with the Chargers, not the Saints, so there's no reason to assume he wouldn't be an elite guy anywhere else.  Maybe if he'd been drafted by the Browns or someone, he'd be out of the league, but you can probably say that for almost everybody.