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jetskid007

The Development of Sam Darnold

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Figured the most important topic of the season required its own thread. Please feel free to discuss anything and everything related to Sam Darnold in here. 

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REAL GOOD IDEA for a separate topic

As of now it is impossible to judge Darnold development, because of the serious problems we have with the Offensive line. He has been under tremendous pressure most of the current season. I still believe if we can build a new offensive line for him he will become a winning QB. Having Mono this season sure hasn't help him at all. Darnold has all the tools, now it is up to the Jets to get a strong supporting cast of o lineman & top WR's. I know it is easer said than done, but the Jets must do it.

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For those who are interested in QBR, Sam's week-to-week Total QBR throughout 2019 below

  • Week 1 vs BUF: 34.4 (23rd) 
  • Week 6 vs DAL: 72.7 (6th) 
  • Week 7 vs NE: 1.6 (27th) 
  • Week 8 vs JAX: 18.5 (28th) 
  • Week 9 vs MIA: 59.7 (13th) 
  • Week 10 vs NYG: 73.2 (8th) 

Interestingly, their metric suggests that Sam had his best game of the season yesterday. Stats never tell the whole story - and that includes advanced analytics, but I had been suspecting that Sam's breakout was looming for a number of reasons:

  1. Defenses are getting softer and he's slowly climbing his way back into rhythm after hitting rock bottom against the Patriots. It's one of those instances where raw stats, advanced analytics, and the eye-test support that. 
  2. He's learning more on each snap he plays. Yesterday you saw a player who was more situationally aware when he can throw a "YOLO" ball and when to take the sack/throw it away. The fact that he didn't throw any turnover-worthy balls yesterday was an important step in his development, and the offense is coming more fluently to him. When he's playing confident, he can make any throw. 
  3. Last year he was in a similar mid-season funk, but when he returned from injury he was special. His first game back wasn't an eye-opener statistically, but he received high marks in Total QBR for his efficiency. He went on to have a dominant final quarter of the season. 

Things I want to see going forward:

  • More hurry-up. He's clearly much more comfortable in a fast-paced offense. 
  • More designed roll-outs. Adam Gase does not call them enough IMO. 

 

Washington's defense is better than their record suggests, so it will be telling to see how he plays in that game. Thereafter, I think we'll see a 2018 GB-like performance against either Oakland or Cincinnati. 

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20 minutes ago, doumeyer said:

REAL GOOD IDEA for a separate topic

As of now it is impossible to judge Darnold development, because of the serious problems we have with the Offensive line. He has been under tremendous pressure most of the current season. I still believe if we can build a new offensive line for him he will become a winning QB. Having Mono this season sure hasn't help him at all. Darnold has all the tools, now it is up to the Jets to get a strong supporting cast of o lineman & top WR's. I know it is easer said than done, but the Jets must do it.

I think Daniel Jeremiah put it best: 

It reminds me of Romo and Rodgers. They had constantly been in chaotic situations early in their careers and you saw both good and bad come of that. As they got older and their lines stabilized, they became more of a decisive pocket passers, but their success rate in those chaotic plays rose. 

Those situations can’t be replicated in practice, just as Darnold’s raw ability to perform in those situations can’t be coached. The more situations he’s in like these, the better he will see the field on the next one. He just needs to do his best to avoid big hits.

Edited by jetskid007

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People compare him with Romo and Ben Roethlisberger. Hes not going to be a low INT guy, he is the type of QB who turns it over but makes plays. He can win you ball games by himself. The issues he has right now is hes on a terrible team. 

Darnold is put in a worse situation than any QB in football pretty much. Anderson never fights for the ball, hes weak. The OL is awful. There is no run game to take pressure off of him. And hes usually playin from behind, which is when he gets crazy starts throwing INTs. 

If we can build a OL, get a real run game, and some more reliable WRs (see how comfortable he is with Crowder and even Thomas now). Darnold will go off. THat PAts game is gonna hurt his stats a bit. But he has shown too much to think hes another Sanchez or Geno. Hes very accurate, and he has the ability to make those WOW throws under pressure off angle that a lot can't make. Difference with him and Mahomes is that Mahomes has Andy Reid coaching him and has a whole lot of weapons to throw to. The Chiefs put their QB in a position to succeed. 

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Here are all of his Total QBR numbers throughout his career (FWIW, 50.0 is considered average): 

  • Week 1 vs DET: 82.5 (6th)
  • Week 2 vs MIA: 8.9 (32nd)
  • Week 3 vs CLE: 35.8 (24th)
  • Week 4 vs JAX: 17.3 (29th)
  • Week 5 vs DEN: 48.4 (17th)
  • Week 6 vs IND: 86.6 (6th)
  • Week 7 vs MIN: 6.7 (27th)
  • Week 8 vs CHI: 50.0 (19th)
  • Week 9 vs MIA: 11.8 (26th)
  • Week 14 vs BUF: 71.8 (5th)
  • Week 15 vs HOU: 85.6 (1st)
  • Week 16 vs GB: 78.6 (12th)
  • Week 17 vs NE: 71.6 (11th)
  • Week 1 vs BUF: 34.4 (23rd) 
  • Week 6 vs DAL: 72.7 (6th) 
  • Week 7 vs NE: 1.6 (27th) 
  • Week 8 vs JAX: 18.5 (28th) 
  • Week 9 vs MIA: 59.7 (13th) 
  • Week 10 vs NYG: 73.2 (8th) 

So in 19 career games he's had 7 stellar performances (green), 3 average/slightly above/slightly below performances (blue), 2 poor performances, and 6 horrible performances per their metric. He's the second youngest starting QB in the NFL, so the up-and-down nature of his career should be expected and reflects what we've seen on the field. What's weird about Darnold is that he's very rhythmic. When he's good he's good, when he's bad he's bad - there's little in-between. 

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He’s got that Favre trait where he just wants to make a play. It’s hurt him a lot but he’s also made some huge throws. 

I agree that we should definitely play with more tempo and use more roll outs but Gase doesn’t wanna wear down guys and our depth is an issue. Chip Kelly tried and failed with that style.

So I would say more tempo but not exactly a no huddle based offense. 

Once the running game gets better I think we’ll see Sam take that next step. Teams know we cannot run so they’re sending a lot of pressure at him but it will make him better as long as he’s not getting hit.

He needs another weapon on offense and a Wall in front of him. That should be one of the top priorities this off-season.

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Current PFF grade is 52.1, which is below average. His overall grade in 2018 was 62.7, which is slightly above average. 

Unfortunately they don't provide weekly breakdowns, but I think he had a 68ish grade in week 1, and a slightly higher grade in week 6 vs DAL (low 70s). His grade against NE was one of the worst they ever issued, so it will weigh down his overall grade this year. The 4 point bump (he was 48.1 entering this game) indicates a pretty solid performance by their metric. 

 

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58 minutes ago, KingOfTheDot said:

He’s got that Favre trait where he just wants to make a play. It’s hurt him a lot but he’s also made some huge throws. 

I agree that we should definitely play with more tempo and use more roll outs but Gase doesn’t wanna wear down guys and our depth is an issue. Chip Kelly tried and failed with that style.

So I would say more tempo but not exactly a no huddle based offense. 

Once the running game gets better I think we’ll see Sam take that next step. Teams know we cannot run so they’re sending a lot of pressure at him but it will make him better as long as he’s not getting hit.

He needs another weapon on offense and a Wall in front of him. That should be one of the top priorities this off-season.

I was honestly really pleased to see the tempo early in the game but for whatever reason we don’t like to stick to the recipe that’s working. 
 

Interesting thought, anyone think maybe Bilals style of running is more suited for this line situation. Bell likes to hesitate and then find the hole whereas even though Bilal won’t run you over he burst straight forward through whatever is there. Bell has been extremely ineffective and 90% of that is the line.

Edited by ekill08x

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4 minutes ago, ekill08x said:

I was honestly really pleased to see the tempo early in the game but for whatever reason we don’t like to stick to the recipe that’s working. 
 

Interesting thought, anyone think my Bilals style of running is more suited for this line situation. Bell likes to hesitate and then find the hole whereas even though Bilal won’t run you over he burst straight forward through whatever is there. Bell has been extremely ineffective and 90% of that is the line.

I think we'd get equal if not better production from Bilal. No knock against Bell, he's still the guy he was in Pittsburg, but his patient style of running isn't possible behind this OL. We can't hold blocks long enough for Bell to scan the field, furthermore, he's waiting for a hole to open that doesn't exist. 

It's a shame because he's such an incredible talent. Great offensive coaches find a way to get their best players involved and Gase has done very little creatively speaking to give Bell the opportunity to succeed. It's one of the reasons I'm so frustrated with the guy. I've been suggesting for a few weeks now that we just straight up split Bell out as a WR, anything thing to get him the ball in space. 

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13 minutes ago, NJC33 said:

I think we'd get equal if not better production from Bilal. No knock against Bell, he's still the guy he was in Pittsburg, but his patient style of running isn't possible behind this OL. We can't hold blocks long enough for Bell to scan the field, furthermore, he's waiting for a hole to open that doesn't exist. 

It's a shame because he's such an incredible talent. Great offensive coaches find a way to get their best players involved and Gase has done very little creatively speaking to give Bell the opportunity to succeed. It's one of the reasons I'm so frustrated with the guy. I've been suggesting for a few weeks now that we just straight up split Bell out as a WR, anything thing to get him the ball in space. 

Yeah that’s exactly my thought process with this. I also hate that we haven’t even tried Montgomery as a WR his nature position. We use the same 3-4 guys and love and die by the sword. Mostly die. 

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If Crowder had Darnold all season, he'd be on pace for 100+ catches 1,000+ yards. Hes our best WR. We need to let Anderson walk, then get some reliable outside targets.  

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1 minute ago, NYJets4716 said:

If Crowder had Darnold all season, he'd be on pace for 100+ catches 1,000+ yards. Hes our best WR. We need to let Anderson walk, then get some reliable outside targets.  

Yeah Anderson just isn’t that good. He really isn’t. In 3 years he simply hasn’t taken a next step. He’s just fast. That is all he brings to the table. 

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48 minutes ago, ekill08x said:

I was honestly really pleased to see the tempo early in the game but for whatever reason we don’t like to stick to the recipe that’s working. 
 

Interesting thought, anyone think maybe Bilals style of running is more suited for this line situation. Bell likes to hesitate and then find the hole whereas even though Bilal won’t run you over he burst straight forward through whatever is there. Bell has been extremely ineffective and 90% of that is the line.

I would like a reporter to ask Gase about that but Manish is too busy asking stupid questions. 

Bell is better in pass pro and we see far to many blitzes to kinda utilize him the way I think we’d hope. We did run a couple misdirection screens to get him in the open field yesterday but he looked a bit slow and banged up.

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1 minute ago, ekill08x said:

Yeah Anderson just isn’t that good. He really isn’t. In 3 years he simply hasn’t taken a next step. He’s just fast. That is all he brings to the table. 

Hes just too weak. He doesn't fight for the ball and if he doesn't get that long TD catch, he is a ghost all game. That is all he is good for is the random long play. He thinks hes a #1 WR too.

This offseason is about building a OL, getting some WR help, improve the CBs and edge rush. But I want to see us get a OL that can allow LeVeon Bell to run next season. With what Bell isgoing to be paid next year, we need to build the offense through him to allow pressure to be taken off of Darnold. 

 

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