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Minor Niner News Twos: Electric Boogaloos


y2lamanaki

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https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/49ers-get-better-idea-cost-retain-arik-armstead-franchise-tag

I was pretty disappointed in this article. "can they afford AA?" then maiocco doesn't say anything other than what the tag would cost... he doesn't even say how much cap space we will have next year after the new cap figure was released

The thing that was interesting though, is that the tag for AA would be at DE because that's where he has played more snaps this year. Ooff 

I'd rathersee @y2lamanaki and @Forge break down our cap space lol y2 did your previous projection take into account the rising cap? 

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54 minutes ago, N4L said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/49ers-get-better-idea-cost-retain-arik-armstead-franchise-tag

I was pretty disappointed in this article. "can they afford AA?" then maiocco doesn't say anything other than what the tag would cost... he doesn't even say how much cap space we will have next year after the new cap figure was released

The thing that was interesting though, is that the tag for AA would be at DE because that's where he has played more snaps this year. Ooff 

I'd rathersee @y2lamanaki and @Forge break down our cap space lol y2 did your previous projection take into account the rising cap? 

Let's cut any HB that makes more than 800k and we'll be able to afford AA... 

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5 hours ago, rudyZ said:

Let's cut any HB that makes more than 800k and we'll be able to afford AA... 

Cutting McKinnon and Coleman this offseason will free up $8.5 mil. I'm totally fine cutting McKinnon, but I would push back a little against cutting Coleman. He's our 3rd best RB right now and making the most money, but Brieda is often injuried and can Mostert do this again next season? Coleman is a known commodity and only making $4 mil next year. 

If the difference between resigning AA and having to let him walk/franchise tag is Coleman's contract, then peace out Coleman. 

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6 hours ago, N4L said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/49ers-get-better-idea-cost-retain-arik-armstead-franchise-tag

I was pretty disappointed in this article. "can they afford AA?" then maiocco doesn't say anything other than what the tag would cost... he doesn't even say how much cap space we will have next year after the new cap figure was released

The thing that was interesting though, is that the tag for AA would be at DE because that's where he has played more snaps this year. Ooff 

I'd rathersee @y2lamanaki and @Forge break down our cap space lol y2 did your previous projection take into account the rising cap? 

We plan on doing the pods during the off season with emphasis on things like this. I've got figures in my head and moves in my head. It'll probably be a bit of a deep dive. 

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10 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

Cutting McKinnon and Coleman this offseason will free up $8.5 mil. I'm totally fine cutting McKinnon, but I would push back a little against cutting Coleman. He's our 3rd best RB right now and making the most money, but Brieda is often injuried and can Mostert do this again next season? Coleman is a known commodity and only making $4 mil next year. 

If the difference between resigning AA and having to let him walk/franchise tag is Coleman's contract, then peace out Coleman. 

I'd be perfectly fine with a stable of Breida/Mostert/Wilson plus whatever young back(s) the team would bring in from late in the draft/as UDFAs. This system has proven for decades that it can manufacture production from this position group with anyone that has two essential qualities:

1) They love football and are dedicated to it.

2) They can learn the system. 

The system then does the rest. With other position groups, I would be far more reticent to just let a relatively cheap veteran go. With running backs, it's just not a problem. 

Replacing Coleman is WAAAAAY easier than replacing Armstead.

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25 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

Cutting McKinnon and Coleman this offseason will free up $8.5 mil. I'm totally fine cutting McKinnon, but I would push back a little against cutting Coleman. He's our 3rd best RB right now and making the most money, but Brieda is often injuried and can Mostert do this again next season? Coleman is a known commodity and only making $4 mil next year. 

If the difference between resigning AA and having to let him walk/franchise tag is Coleman's contract, then peace out Coleman. 

That's what you have the draft for. You cut coleman, ride with Mostert / Breida / Wilson as your top three, and grab a UDFA / late round pick as a fourth runner. Breida's salary is going to go way up next year as well. Even if you give him a second round tender as an rfa, that will be close to 3.5 million. 

Tevin Coleman is 34th out of 38 qualified runners in DYAR, 36th out of 38 in qualified runners in DVOA, and is tied for the lowest success rate out of 38 qualified runners.  He's 44th out of 45th in yards after contact per carry. 42nd out of 45th in broken tackles per attempt. The known quantity we have in him right now is not good. I'd much rather take my chances that we can get comparable production out of a rookie late round or undrafted pick, especially at quite literally one tenth the cost. You have to trim fat somewhere on this money. 

It's not just about Armstead either. Coleman's cap hit could seriously be half the money that we need for Sanders (I would expect a comparable contract to golden tate, who got 4 / 37.5 with a first year cap hit less than 7). Cutting Coleman + McKinnon largely allows us to keep Sanders, who should also be a much higher priority than Coleman. 

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For those who are interested, currently OTC projects us to have a little over 13 million in space next season with the project cap at 200 million (increase of about 12 million over this season). 

Once ERFA's have been tendered (which are a lock), that amount is about 10.5M (we have a weirdly high amount of contributing ERFA's). Our projected draft requirement cap space is about 5 million. 

So right now, the "play around" money is about 5.5 million in space for next season. 

Notable free agents: 

  • Manny Sanders
  • AA
  • Ronald Blair
  • Kendrick Bourne (restricted)
  • Matt Breida (restricted)
  • Jimmie Ward
  • Others include: Ben Garland, Sheldon Day, Elijah Lee 

 

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Also, did anyone else know about this? I completely missed this: 

Quote

On November 23, 2019 the 49ers and Kwon Alexander completed a contract restructure.  The team pro-rated a small amount ($333,525) of Alexander's remaining 2019 salary to signing bonus.  Alexander's 2020 was lowered from $11.25 million to $976,235 with the rest paid out as an option bonus on April 1, 2020.  The team added three voidable years to the contract for salary cap purposes.  Alexander's contract will now void on the 5th day of the 2023 waiver period.  This will make Alexander an unrestricted free agent in 2023, same as he was scheduled based on the original contract.

So basically we lowered next years cap hit to about 5 million, but we are now grossly underwater on this contract in the immediate future, so Kwon will definitely not be one and done. 

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3 minutes ago, Forge said:

Also, did anyone else know about this? I completely missed this: 

So basically we lowered next years cap hit to about 5 million, but we are now grossly underwater on this contract in the immediate future, so Kwon will definitely not be one and done. 

And honestly nor should he. Dude is MADE for this system and losing him was a big loss. 

Edited by J-ALL-DAY
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Just now, J-ALL-DAY said:

And honestly nor should he. Dude is MADE for this system and losing him was a big loss. 

That cap hit was sizable for an off ball linebacker. I will agree though....I thought he was playing excellent, and his age makes this a reasonable risk (we shouldn't see a decline in play), though back to back seasoning ending injuries is a concern. 

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3 minutes ago, Forge said:

That cap hit was sizable for an off ball linebacker. I will agree though....I thought he was playing excellent, and his age makes this a reasonable risk (we shouldn't see a decline in play), though back to back seasoning ending injuries is a concern. 

I mean can we get rid of him with little to no cap hit in say two years from now? If so, I have no problem with this. Alexander is an emotional leader for the defense and just a really good coverage backer. Him and Warner are ridiculously good in coverage as a duo.

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20 minutes ago, Forge said:

For those who are interested, currently OTC projects us to have a little over 13 million in space next season with the project cap at 200 million (increase of about 12 million over this season). 

Once ERFA's have been tendered (which are a lock), that amount is about 10.5M (we have a weirdly high amount of contributing ERFA's). Our projected draft requirement cap space is about 5 million. 

So right now, the "play around" money is about 5.5 million in space for next season. 

Notable free agents: 

  • Manny Sanders
  • AA
  • Ronald Blair
  • Kendrick Bourne (restricted)
  • Matt Breida (restricted)
  • Jimmie Ward
  • Others include: Ben Garland, Sheldon Day, Elijah Lee 

 

We'll have carryover space too, no? 

I'm open to tagging AA, but i wouldn't mind trading him to recoup some picks as well. Ford, Clark, & Clowney were all traded off franchise tag deals this past offseason alone. 

As beastly as he's been, i still wonder if its just the contract year...he was never THIS good before

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Just now, J-ALL-DAY said:

I mean can we get rid of him with little to no cap hit in say two years from now? If so, I have no problem with this. Alexander is an emotional leader for the defense and just a really good coverage backer. Him and Warner are ridiculously good in coverage as a duo.

Yes, that is correct. I mentioned during one of the podcasts that this was an option based on how his original contract was structured, I just completely missed that we did it. His age made him a good target to perform an action such as this, just as Jimmy's age and position make him a good candidate to extend as soon as this off season and restructure to get more cap space for the immediate season. 

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9 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

We'll have carryover space too, no? 

I'm open to tagging AA, but i wouldn't mind trading him to recoup some picks as well. Ford, Clark, & Clowney were all traded off franchise tag deals this past offseason alone. 

As beastly as he's been, i still wonder if its just the contract year...he was never THIS good before

OTC typically already has the carry over built in with their calculator.  Though in truth, it's hard to tell sometimes because they have different cap numbers on different pages and its sort of annoying. We would have about 9 million in carry over space, so if that is added, we are looking at 14-15 million in spendable money. Spotrac number differ further from OTC, so it's really hard to get a bead on precisely where we stand. 

Best case scenario, estimate about 15m in spendable cap before any cuts or anything (This is our cap space - ERFA tenders - draft pick compensation). So somewhere between 5.5 - 15. Big difference, I know. 

But if it's closer to the latter, than a few reasonable cuts put us in a good position to bring everyone back. Coleman / Goodwin / Jet swing us up to about the 18-27 million in space range. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Forge said:

Yes, that is correct. I mentioned during one of the podcasts that this was an option based on how his original contract was structured, I just completely missed that we did it. His age made him a good target to perform an action such as this, just as Jimmy's age and position make him a good candidate to extend as soon as this off season and restructure to get more cap space for the immediate season. 

Yeah, I'm good with that. I mean the way he was playing this year, no way were we going to get rid of him anyways. Props to Lynch and the crew for this signing as I wasn't too happy about it when it was first made. One legitimate concern is his injury history though. 

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