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Minor Niner News Twos: Electric Boogaloos


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37 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

The 49ers will definitely need to get creative this offseason. I just did a Manage the Roster exercise on Spotrac for the 2021 49ers and it was interesting to say the least:

 

Honestly, just depends on what path this team wants to take. 

37 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:
  • Restructured Jimmy's contract - saved roughly $26 mil
  • Released Ford - saved $6.4 mil
  • Released Richburg - saved $3 mil
  • Declined Gould's club option - saved $3.7 mil
  • Released Nzeocha - saved $1.6 mil
  • Released Travis Benjamin - saved $1 mil
  • Released Brendel - saved $1 mil
  • Released Shon Coleman - saved $1 mil
  • Released Chris Thompson - saved $850k
  • Released Chris Edwards - saved $780k

Hard, hard pass on restructuring Jimmy for me. I am not tying myself to that any longer than I Have to. I'd cut him and take my chances before restructuring him at this point. 

Releasing Ford makes sense, I Just wonder if that is what the team is going to do. I feel like there is a good chance that they end up restructuring this - he's already been paid a ton and he's not going to get a lot on an open market. I wouldn't be surprised if the rest of the deal is ripped up and we basically put him on a 1 year, 4 million dollar deal. This honestly makes the most amount of sense to me. 

Releasing Richburg or his retiring makes sense. Though you posting this made me realize that OTC is actually incorrect in what they have for him as they are not including his ghost years when releasing him (which is why earlier I said 5M saving when in fact spotrac is correct and it's only about 3). 

I'm keeping Gould. Much rather give him that money than Juice, and possibly even Bourne. 

Releasing Nzeocha makes sense, but also makes me sad. I'm not all out on Benjamin yet - this could be a tricky spot. I'd rather pay Benjamin 1 million than Bourne 3 million tbh, and I love Bourne. But you have to triage. 

The last 4 I'm in line with you on. Coleman may see TC to see where he stands given his experience as a starter, but those guys could largely be replaced by UDFA and late round picks. Vets would be a lateral move salary wise so they would have to be better. 

37 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

I re-signed the following FA's with their 2021 cap hit:

  • Trent Williams - $10 mil
  • Juszczyk - $4.5 mil
  • K'Waun Williams - $3.2 mil
  • Bourne - $3 mil
  • Garland - $2.5 mil
  • Hyder - $2.5 mil
  • Mullens - RFA original round tender ($2.3 mil)
  • Verrett - $2 mil
  • Jones - $1.5 mil
  • Reed - $1.2 mil
  • Blair - $1.2 mil
  • Jamar Taylor - $950k
  • Wilson - $950k
  • Willis - $950k
  • Dwelley - $850k
  • Harris - $800k
  • Pepper - $750k
  • Givens - $750k
  • Moseley - ERFA tender ($750k)
  • Brunskill - ERFA tender ($750k)
  • Webster - ERFA tender ($750k)
  • Hasty - ERFA tender ($750k)

Definitely with you on Trent. Most important re-signing we can make this year. 

Hard pass on Juice. He doesn't touch the ball nearly enough to be worth that hit and his blocking has become atrocious. His net gain is just not worth it and I'd rather give that money to Gould. 

Probably letting K'Waun go, but a 3M hit makes me interested depending on the rest of the contract. Slot corners are the easiest to replace and you should not pay them a lot of money in general; there are better ways to spend money. But LIS, he's worth this. 

I love bourne, but again, simply not giving him 3 million. He's too close to replacement level. He touches the ball roughly a little over twice a game. Its just too much for such nominal impact. Especially in a year where there are going to be a lot of cuts and a depressed market. 

I think it's going to be very difficult to get Hyder and Verrett on those cap hits  because I think that neither is signing a long term deal, which means its much harder to hide cap hits. You can get Trent on a first year cap hit of like 8-10 because he's probably signing a 5 year deal. Given their ages and history, I don't think that either Hyder or Verrett is getting that type of contract. They don't have to be much higher (Ward, for example, has a cap hit of only 4 million this year despite his AAV being 9.5M, which is a contract I could easily see Verrett getting). 

I'd probably let Taylor go at this point now, unfortunately. ACL injury at the end of the season, he'll be 31 next season. Don't have any interest in bringing Harris back even at 800K, but for some reason the team keeps bringing him back, so hopefully he just never has to play. 

 

**I know you said to ignore the hits, but it's kind of hard to because so much of our preferences are tied into the monetary figures that each will command. 

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10 minutes ago, Forge said:

Hard, hard pass on restructuring Jimmy for me. I am not tying myself to that any longer than I Have to. I'd cut him and take my chances before restructuring him at this point. 

I understand this and I wrestled with this move as well. But if we release Jimmy, we'd have roughly the same remaining cap space for FA's, which I estimated at around $18 mil. In my scenario + releasing Jimmy, we'd have $18 mil to sign a kicker, a IOL, and a QB. If we keep Gould like you mentioned, we'd have around $15 mil for a IOL and a QB. I'm not sure we'd get a QB who could lead our team to the promise land for around $8-$10 mil.

We'd be talking about guys like Fitzpatrick, Trubisky, Newton, or Brissett. Prescott and Rivers would be out of our price range and we may be too far down in the 1st round to grab a quality QB. I don't see a trade up happening as the FO has signaled they're trying to stock draft picks to fill future holes. 

If we did nothing with Jimmy's contract, we'd have to subtract about $25 mil from my estimated 2021 cap, which means we'd have to forgo re-signing a bunch of our guys. 

It's a difficult position to be in right now. 

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2 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

I understand this and I wrestled with this move as well. But if we release Jimmy, we'd have roughly the same remaining cap space for FA's, which I estimated at around $18 mil. In my scenario + releasing Jimmy, we'd have $18 mil to sign a kicker, a IOL, and a QB. If we keep Gould like you mentioned, we'd have around $15 mil for a IOL and a QB. I'm not sure we'd get a QB who could lead our team to the promise land for around $8-$10 mil.

 

I'll just draft a guy and potentially take it on the chin, but I'm also not signing a lot of the other guys you mentioned. I'll take back my 7.5 for Juice and Bourne, for example. I will turn over the FB spot to Helm or Hokit without much of a concern and there are receivers you can have for cheaper. I also don't know about K'waun and if I had to triage, I'd sign CJ on a vet min deal as opposed to tendering Mullens. Its very clear we are screwed either way, so I may as well save 1.4. 

I can navigate the difference enough to make not restructuring him the right play, and frankly, we aren't going to solve everything in a single year, so for some of these you can only do the best you can (trying McKivitz at RG next season, for example). 

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The problem is that no matter what, next year should be a weird flux year. I'm just not anticipating a "great" season...so if I'm going to make big changes, it has to be next year because we are going to be making some "big" changes no matter what. 

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1 hour ago, Forge said:

The problem is that no matter what, next year should be a weird flux year. I'm just not anticipating a "great" season...so if I'm going to make big changes, it has to be next year because we are going to be making some "big" changes no matter what. 

I'd like to think we're still close to a deep playoff run, especially with how this team is rallying this year. But, if we get into the offseason and Saleh peaces out for a HC gig and takes coaches with him or we get poached regardless, we could be in a position to retool a bit and shed money. 

There are several scenarios that can play out over the next several months that will take this team in wildly different directions. But, I do believe there is one that if the Niners keep most of this team intact, they could compete for another Super Bowl next year. Color me optimistic. 

Edited by NinerNation21
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1 hour ago, Forge said:

The problem is that no matter what, next year should be a weird flux year. I'm just not anticipating a "great" season...so if I'm going to make big changes, it has to be next year because we are going to be making some "big" changes no matter what. 

Honestly such a difficult one to predict what we will do with Jimmy for next year and honestly it all starts with that. Also no one really knows where the cap will land and a few mil this year make a much bigger difference then it would in other years. 

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23 hours ago, NinerNation21 said:

I'd like to think we're still close to a deep playoff run, especially with how this team is rallying this year. But, if we get into the offseason and Saleh peaces out for a HC gig and takes coaches with him or we get poached regardless, we could be in a position to retool a bit and shed money. 

There are several scenarios that can play out over the next several months that will take this team in wildly different directions. But, I do believe there is one that if the Niners keep most of this team intact, they could compete for another Super Bowl next year. Color me optimistic. 

But its just unrealistic to keep the band together. Changes will have to be made and we will have to go with some younger, cheaper options at certain positions. Its about analyzing the roster and making the right player evals. Some guys I just dont see being brought back even though their play warrants it. Guys like Juice, K'wuan, DJ and Tartt are just victims of being on a realtively young team with a bunch young stars due to get paid. Doesn't mean we can't still be contenders without those players. But at some point you have to hedge your bets with your player development and be willing to see Pro Bowl type of talent walk out the door.

Edited by 757-NINER
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9 minutes ago, John232 said:

I love Juice, agree though. If he's not willing to take a paycut, no way we should be bringing him back. 

 

Legit we should just consider moving Hurd to RB and see if he works as an experiment. 

I think he'd be awesome in the slot and on some of those push passes/end arounds like Deebo. Problem is that even just running injures him. 

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5 hours ago, NinerNation21 said:

I'd like to think we're still close to a deep playoff run, especially with how this team is rallying this year. But, if we get into the offseason and Saleh peaces out for a HC gig and takes coaches with him or we get poached regardless, we could be in a position to retool a bit and shed money. 

 

I'm not sure what we are doing can be classified as "rallying" just yet. It was our first win in over a month. It happens. Dallas beat Minnesota (and nearly beat Pitt the week before). The falcons just embarrassed a 6-4 raiders team. 

But mainly, given the contributors who are free agents and what their current situations are, this should 100% be a retool year upcoming because there's no way you want to bring *all* of them back, so there will have to be changes...and some of them will be big. I think it has to be unavoidable. Go all in next year bringing everyone back, sacrificing future year flexibility, and I think you're just trading in a retool next year for a complete tear down and rebuild in 2-3. 

It's certainly a tough spot...and I don't think the goal is to check out of next year. I think a not so great year is possible regardless of what we do, whether that's bring the band back, retool some spots, etc. 

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PFF's FA predictions.

5. T Trent Williams

After not playing a snap in 2019, Williams is back in his rightful place as one of the league’s best offensive tackles. He can play in any scheme, moving defenders at the point of attack or cutting them off on the backside of zone plays, while linebackers must keep their head on a swivel because he attacks the second level with a vengeance.

Williams has basically never had a bad season in the NFL, with his rookie year being by far the lowest overall PFF grade he has posted (63.4). He hit at least a 75.6 mark in every other season. He has shown elite-level play in multiple schemes and now multiple cities, and he looks capable of being the next great left tackle to play well into their 30s at a high level.

Contract Analysis: Williams quietly has regained his All-Pro form in San Francisco following a lengthy holdout with the Washington Football Team. He’s been as patient as an individual can be, and he’ll finally be cashing out as a reward.

Prediction: 49ers sign Williams for four years, $80 million ($20M APY): $62.5 million total guaranteed, $45 million fully guaranteed at signing.

 

21. CB Richard Sherman

One of the best cornerbacks of his generation, Richard Sherman is still playing the game at a high level, but his age and relative lack of scheme diversity will scare a lot of potential suitors off.

Last year, once fully recovered from an Achilles injury, Sherman had one of the best seasons of his entire career, allowing just 227 receiving yards all season long. He surrendered a passer rating of just 46.8 before things came unglued a little in the Super Bowl loss to Kansas City.

Sherman’s intelligence and tape study gives him a mental edge over most offenses he faces, and that more than makes up for less than stellar straight-line speed. In the kind of defense he plays in San Francisco, he can remain a valuable player even at his age and could be an attractive short-term option for a number of teams in need of a quick fix.

Contract Analysis: Sherman is at the “mercenary” stage of his career where he can sign short-term deals with contenders until he decides to hang up his cleats, much like Darrelle Revis in 2014 when he signed a one-year, $12M deal with the Patriots that included a $20M option for 2015 (the option was declined and Revis returned to the Jets).

Prediction: 49ers sign Sherman for two-years, $28 million ($14M APY): $18M total guaranteed, $14M fully guaranteed at signing.

Edited by NcFinest9erFan
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