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iPwn

Allen Robinson’s next contract

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Things are now more in the air than they were before. So what happens?

Coming off an ACL tear, it’s hard to justify a long term major contract, and just as hard to justify the $15M+ Franchise Tag. ARob will likely be signing a one year deal to prove he’s back to 100% and then cash in on whatever contract he earns once the 2018 season concludes.

Jacksonville will be the team most connected to his healing process, meaning if he’s coming along 100% through all the medical checks, they would like be the team most well informed to justify a large single season contract, or to give him his long term contract at fair market value.

However, for a player who may be auditioning for the whole NFL on a one year prove it deal, a team with the question mark at QB the Jaguars look to have at least during the Free Agent period isn’t exactly giving Robinson the best platform to showcase his value to 32 teams.

Do the Jaguars see his recovery going well and pony up the contract he would have gotten prior to injury? Will the Jaguars be able to talk Robinson into staying around on a prove it deal even if there’s a huge question mark at QB? Would it take positioning themselves for a QB for the Jags to be able to retain ARob? Do the Jaguars burn through the Franchise tag to attempt to keep ARob around long term? Does Robinson jump ship to a team like Tennessee or Detroit where he knows he’ll have a QB who will get him the ball, then cash in on a big payday somewhere after?

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This team lacked a #1 receiver prior to ARob getting here for so long, I am not letting him leave. I'm sure he wants to have a better QB situation but none of us know how he feels about Jacksonville long term. Hopkins just re-upped in Houston where the QB situation is also very iffy/has been a problem for quite a while now. 

An ACL injury sucks, but if he's willing to discuss a long-term deal still even though his value takes a bit of a hit, I'd happily still lock him up long term. If we can't get something done, I'm on the train to franchise tag him (even at that amount).

I remember the dark days of having receiver problems, I like Hurns/Lee, and the potential of Cole/Dede is there, but I have zero interest in letting an elite level talent walk out the door at his age. If we draft a QB next year you want him to have plenty of weapons. 

Edited by .Buzz

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18 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Hopkins just re-upped in Houston where the QB situation is also very iffy/has been a problem for quite a while now. 

Somewhat different with Houston being a consistently solid team (9-7 for several years in a row now) and having just drafted Watson. Come time to work on ARob’s contract, there might not be a single QB signed to our roster assuming they decline Blake’s option. And we might be picking somewhere that a top QB in the draft isn’t a given.

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3 minutes ago, iPwn said:

Somewhat different with Houston being a consistently solid team (9-7 for several years in a row now) and having just drafted Watson. Come time to work on ARob’s contract, there might not be a single QB signed to our roster assuming they decline Blake’s option. And we might be picking somewhere that a top QB in the draft isn’t a given.

It definitely is a bit different, but Hopkins still has had crap at QB for the past several years and have had success due to that defense along with an awful division/not much competition. Although they did draft Watson, he is still a rookie that had a ton of question marks and isn't certain to be much better than what they've had. I mean, Hopkins just said a month or so ago that Tom Savage is "his guy" with Watson still on the roster. Could just be showing solidarity/staff told him Savage was going to be the guy unless something bad happens/Savage is bad, but still.

I'd imagine if we feel ARob is a key cog and big part of this franchises future they would keep him in the loop on their plans at the QB position too..but we still have 15 more games to get a read on how this franchise is looking/where we'll be drafting. 

Regardless, I just can't get behind not tagging him if a long-term deal isn't an option. He's just too talented/clear cut #1 WR talent that isn't easy to get (Jaguars fans should know that first hand). Franchise tag is very expensive, and I guess it may depend on our cap situation some, but we can't let ARob walk.

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1 hour ago, .Buzz said:

It definitely is a bit different, but Hopkins still has had crap at QB for the past several years and have had success due to that defense along with an awful division/not much competition.

But still, I think that a lack of personal success is a lot easier to stomach when it comes alongside wins and playoff appearances.

 

As for the other stuff, I largely agree that keeping him should be a priority. I just wonder if his desires and the team’s will line up. It’s gotta be hard for a player to tolerate both losing and uncertainty of personal success on a team. One or the other, it’s easier to justify. But both is a hard pill to swallow unless the guy is only out for money. And ARob doesn’t seem like that kind of player.

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20 minutes ago, iPwn said:

But still, I think that a lack of personal success is a lot easier to stomach when it comes alongside wins and playoff appearances.

 

As for the other stuff, I largely agree that keeping him should be a priority. I just wonder if his desires and the team’s will line up. It’s gotta be hard for a player to tolerate both losing and uncertainty of personal success on a team. One or the other, it’s easier to justify. But both is a hard pill to swallow unless the guy is only out for money. And ARob doesn’t seem like that kind of player.

Yeah, but players seem to feel different than fans regarding this franchise and where its going. I feel thats pretty evident based on the way free agents talk about us. I mean Calais Campbell thought this was a legit team on the cusp whrn he was debating between us and playing for his hometown team growing up in Denver.

Failure sucks, and as fans its hard to see the light when we've been in the cellar and picking top 10 for how long, but I think most players see theres a talented nucleus that has a chamce to start having success in the not so distant future if a thing or two goes our way.

Edited by .Buzz

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Just now, .Buzz said:

Yeah, but players seem to feel different than fans regarding this franchise and where its going. I feel thats pretty evident based on the way free agents talk about us. I mean Calais Campbell thought this was a legit team on the cusp whrn he was debating between us and playing for his hometown team growing up in Denver.

But outside and inside opinions often differ. It’s easy to feel one way looking outside, but when you’re in it, it looks a lot different. I mean how many times did we all feel completely dejected as a fan base after a loss and feel like nothing was going right, only to see a fan of an opposing team drop the “you guys are gonna be spooky good in a year or two”. I feel like that can often be the case for players too. It’s real easy to look from the outside and see where all the good players could come together, but when you’re in the middle of the garbage, it’s often times hard to see outside it. If that makes sense. I won’t pretend to know what ARob is actually thinking, but I feel like a player as competitive as him can’t feel all that great about losing and also not being able to perform up to what he thinks he is capable of.

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2 minutes ago, iPwn said:

But outside and inside opinions often differ. It’s easy to feel one way looking outside, but when you’re in it, it looks a lot different. I mean how many times did we all feel completely dejected as a fan base after a loss and feel like nothing was going right, only to see a fan of an opposing team drop the “you guys are gonna be spooky good in a year or two”. I feel like that can often be the case for players too. It’s real easy to look from the outside and see where all the good players could come together, but when you’re in the middle of the garbage, it’s often times hard to see outside it. If that makes sense. I won’t pretend to know what ARob is actually thinking, but I feel like a player as competitive as him can’t feel all that great about losing and also not being able to perform up to what he thinks he is capable of.

This is very possible too.

Guess we'll just have to hope ARob enjoys Jacksonville and we can continue to play the way we did in Houston the rest of the season as far as the defense and OL go.

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2 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Guess we'll just have to hope ARob enjoys Jacksonville and we can continue to play the way we did in Houston the rest of the season as far as the defense and OL go.

I feel like our best chance of getting him to come back would be if we went like 8-8 and then traded for Alex Smith, or traded up to #1 in the draft. Something like that, it’s pretty easy to then feel like the team was you and this new QB away from making the playoffs, and giving it another shot.

But if we’re like 3-13 or 6-10 and waiting for Free Agency to sign or make a move for a guy, or hoping one slips to us in the draft/waiting to trade up, lots of things come into factor that aren’t good. It at least incentivizes the idea of looking at the market for yourself. And then the team is really in danger of losing him unless they Franchise Tag him. 

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I don't think it really changes all that much tbh.  Financially, i think we all kinda expected that we'd end up paying a premium on ARob to get him to stay in a situation with unsettled/undesirable QB situation.  I don't think that's changed...he's still going to want Hopkins money to stay.  It's still really up to ARob whether he's interested in staying or not.  If he wants to go, we can still tag him...and that's still really the only way he's staying here next year if he doesn't really want to.  That hasn't changed.

The only thing it potentially changes, is that it's a bit more risk for the Jaguars side to take on because it'll be one less year for him to demonstrate that he is indeed a top WR.  And it's going to be an unknown just how well he'll come back from the injury.  Maybe there's a slightly higher chance our front office jerks him around and convince him that this isn't the place he wants to be.  But ultimately, he's going to be very expensive to keep...the ACL injury isn't going to really change that.  He's still going to be asking for top dollar, with a value somewhat beyond what he'd probably have been able to prove with our QB situation even if he were healthy this year.

We were always going to have to gamble on him being even better than our QBs allowed him to look.  It's just even more of a projection now.

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I should add, probably the biggest thing this actually changes...is likely Marqise Lee's next contract.  Probably helps ensure that it's unnecessarily lucrative for him, based on whatever shrapnel he manages to actually catch in the absence of ARob.

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got to assume his actual deal goes to marqise and either arob will sign a one year prove it deal/tagged or let go entirely and signs a 1 year deal similar to what alshon did

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18 minutes ago, Its A Sabotage said:

his actual deal goes to marqise

Disgusting. No thanks. But probably a good portion of it is, regardless.

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1 minute ago, iPwn said:

Disgusting. No thanks. But probably a good portion of it is, regardless.

some of the chatter prior to the season was you give each marqise and  arob the same deal and whichever accepts you trade the other if things go south

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