BStanRamFan Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 Going to provide some insight into how I bet everyweek with examples. Not saying it works, but it's what I feel gives me a better than average chance to hit. I use FF defensive stats to target Defense that perform poorly against certain skill positions. Once I have those defenses ranked, I pinpoint matchups that look appealing. Below is a rough outline of what I'm currently focusing on. Defense vs. TE's getting TDs Arizona Oakland TB Tenn Jax Bets I like: Darren Fells TD +320, Logan Thomas +550, David Njoku +300, Darren Waller +140 Defense vs. RB getting TD's Carolina Jax GB Chi Seattle Detroit Bets I like: Philip Lindsay+155(Royce Freeman +330), Montgomery +165, Duke Johnson (+210), Chris Carson +Seahawks win +120 Defense vs WR's getting TD's**this one I dont like as much cause I couldn't find designation of Defense vs. WR1, WR2, Slot WR Miami TB Philly NYG Minn Bets I like: Sterling Shephard TD +195, Mike WIlliams TD +230 Random Bets I like: McCaffrey Over 125.5 Rush+Rec yards -102, Amendola Over 49.5 rec yards -110, Minn/LAC UNDER 45.5, Gurley Rush+Rec over 87.5 yards +108, Tyler Higbee TD +220 Best of luck to everyone today. Let's see how off I was tomorrow lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Snowy in KC. Advantage Broncos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Split the Sticks Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 39 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: Snowy in KC. Advantage Broncos. I hate the Broncos. I hope they get their legs chopped off after beating the Texans. Bastids! And my kids has to go hungry after that debacle?? j/k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nozizaki Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I definitely am going to pick the Vikings this week, I'm just concerned about how the line will move. I would assume the public will take the Packers because of their superior record and the HOF QB, so I would wait. Anyone thinking the line will move differently? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/14/2019 at 12:45 PM, SmittyBacall said: Props I like... Kenny Golladay vs. TB - over 4.5 receptions (-110) - At home. Should be a shootout. Marvin Jones out. TB gives up nothing vs the run and everything vs the pass. Volume pick. Robert Woods @ DAL - over 5.5 receptions (-125) - On a tear lately. Plays nearly every snap in Rams new 12 personnel. Screen passes galore. Shootout potential. Zach Ertz @ WAS - over 5.5 receptions (+120) - Eagles have no receivers to field. Ertz will get peppered with targets. Aaron Jones vs CHI - over 3.5 receptions (+130) - Jones is hot. 2nd on team in targets and receptions behind Adams. DeAndre Hopkins @ TEN - over 6.5 receptions (+120) - Shootout potential. Watson and Hopkins will need to go hero-mode to win. Titans corners are struggling. DK Metcalf @ CAR - over 3.4 receptions (-175) - Carolina second last in receptions allowed to receivers. Should be high-scoring. Jarvis Landry @ ARI - over 5.5 receptions (-110) - Arizona last in receptions allowed to receivers. Should be high-scoring. Baker's most reliable target. Hunter Henry vs MIN - over 3.5 receptions (-175) - At home. Minnesota allowing 5th most receptions to TEs. Emmanuel Sanders vs ATL - over 4.5 receptions (+120) - At home. Atlanta 9th in allowing WR receptions. Just lost Desmond Trufant. Potentially high-scoring as Niners are leaking lately. Philip Lindsay @ KC - over 14.5 receiving yards (-115) - KC allowing 6th most receptions to RBs. DeAndre Hopkins @ TEN - over 80.5 receiving yards (-120) - See receptions. Keenan Allen vs MIN - over 5.5 receptions (+120) - At home. Minnesota allowing 4th most receptions to WRs. @BStanRamFan @N4L - Approve? Fade me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Rough week for me - had Seahawks -6.5, Redskins +8, and Rams -1. Need a bounce back. Looking at Cowboys -2.5 and Ravens -10.5 locked in. Need a couple more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BStanRamFan Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/15/2019 at 10:21 AM, BStanRamFan said: Going to provide some insight into how I bet everyweek with examples. Not saying it works, but it's what I feel gives me a better than average chance to hit. I use FF defensive stats to target Defense that perform poorly against certain skill positions. Once I have those defenses ranked, I pinpoint matchups that look appealing. Below is a rough outline of what I'm currently focusing on. Defense vs. TE's getting TDs Arizona Oakland TB Tenn Jax Bets I like: Darren Fells TD +320, Logan Thomas +550, David Njoku +300, Darren Waller +140 Defense vs. RB getting TD's Carolina Jax GB Chi Seattle Detroit Bets I like: Philip Lindsay+155(Royce Freeman +330), Montgomery +165, Duke Johnson (+210), Chris Carson +Seahawks win +120 Defense vs WR's getting TD's**this one I dont like as much cause I couldn't find designation of Defense vs. WR1, WR2, Slot WR Miami TB Philly NYG Minn Bets I like: Sterling Shephard TD +195, Mike WIlliams TD +230 Random Bets I like: McCaffrey Over 125.5 Rush+Rec yards -102, Amendola Over 49.5 rec yards -110, Minn/LAC UNDER 45.5, Gurley Rush+Rec over 87.5 yards +108, Tyler Higbee TD +220 Best of luck to everyone today. Let's see how off I was tomorrow lol Yeah I was pretty horrible this weekend. Went 2-1-1 on my bolded bets which were ones I liked the most. Njoku was inactive after practicing all week so didn't count. Sterling Shephard was an inch short of the goaline on a TD which would of been nice. Hitting Mike Williams first TD on the season felt good, but overall a bad week. I'll post again for this weekend if anyone is interested. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeotheLion Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Really like the Bills this week +6. With NE's offense struggling I am expecting a low scoring game. Don't necessarily think Buffalo wins but in a game I think will be tight I love getting 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
animaltested Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Something to consider this week Arizona at Seattle. Arizona has won in Seattle 4 times since 2013. Many of those games in December. Last year, Seattle needed a last second FG to win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 hours ago, MikeT14 said: Rough week for me - had Seahawks -6.5, Redskins +8, and Rams -1. Need a bounce back. Looking at Cowboys -2.5 and Ravens -10.5 locked in. Need a couple more. you are better off betting more on less games than adding games just to fill a quota. buy the half pts, especially for the ravens. 23 minutes ago, animaltested said: Something to consider this week Arizona at Seattle. Arizona has won in Seattle 4 times since 2013. Many of those games in December. Last year, Seattle needed a last second FG to win. different Arizona regime than those previous ones. I do think Arizona could be a good play though. Seattle doesn't win games by more than 1 score, it just doesn't happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 There are a lot of games I really like this weekend. so many that I almost question it lol lots of home dogs this week, and I think this is a week the public gets pounded, so contrarian plays are definitely on my mind Chargers are going to dominate oakland so I will lay the 7 points (buy the 1/2 pt if you need to). Raiders defense doesnt have anyone to cover hunter henry or mike williams. There is not a single person that can cover either of them, let alone both of them. They just dont have the man power. Then, eckler and gordon should be able to have a lot of success on the ground and with dump offs in space. Chargers should have no problems moving the ball up and down and should be able to be up multiple scores heading into the fourth. Raiders are not a good team and have run out of gas on defense I also think with trent brown being out, bosa and ingram are going to get after carr. Carr is not the type of QB that does well under pressure. He has become skiddish (like his brother was, but to a lesser extent) and I think they are going to rattle him early. Chargers were horrible this year and have snapped out of it. Raiders have been playing tough for most of the year but they just dont have the talent to compete. Chargers already lost to the raiders once, they arent getting swept. I think the Titans are going to win outright. Short week on the road against a hungry team, after an emotional win on MNF for the saints. The titans played a home game last week and didnt travel at all. Then you factor in the fact its Drew Brees outside of the dome in December. I know brees isnt actually bad outside, but I dont think that he has played many games outside in December. Its colder now and I think thats a factor. Titans played a really good game last week against houston. They just had some unlucky bounces and then ran out of time at the end. Tannehill is a perfect fit for that offense and I love the brown, smith, davis threesome on the outside. Jonnu smith is becoming really really good (I am going to take him next year in fantasy). Their downfield passing game should have success against the saints defense. I think they are going to have a similar gameplan as the niners in some respects by making a point to throw the ball down the field early and often. Honestly, I thought they outplayed houston overall, but houston just made a few big plays and managed the clock well. Henry's health (hamstring) is certainly a concern. He didnt run with the same ferocity last week but he did look pretty good for stretches. He wasnt the home run threat/hammer he usually is, but he was grinding out tough yards and forcing teams to commit defenders to him. That opens up the downfield passing game and tannehill has been seeing the field well and making big plays. Saints defense is good, but I like the way the titans match up on that side of the ball. Kamara isnt the same player for whatever reason. He is hurt or something, idk. Thomas is great and the titans corners have struggled somewhat but I like their front. their DL is huge and stout and I think they will clog passing lanes for brees. I am going to buy the 1/2 pt to get +3 and also take them on the ML for less. That way, if they win I more than double up, but if they lose by 3 or less I will still make money I also like the jaguars +7. Falcons just won their superbowl this year by beating kyle shanahan on the road. Now they go home content, and do some christmas shopping/spend time with their family/pat eachother on the back. Meanwhile, the jaguars were just released back into the wild after being held in captivity by tom coughlin. They are going to come out firing this weekend as a big middle finger to coughlin. I think they really like their coach too, and they know that this is an audition to keep their jobs so I think they bring the juice this week. Jaguars Achilles heel is their run D. The falcons cant run the ball for **** so I am not worried about that part. I trust minshew to keep battling even if they get down to keep it within 7 points. Chark should be back this week Those are my top three in that order I would say, but I also really like the Ravens -9 because I think their zone defense is going to give mayfield a ton of issues. They should be able to get a lot of pressure in bakers face. He can be loose with the ball when he is pressured and I think that combination with the ravens zone is going to lead to a few takeaways for the ravens. last time they played chubb went off and the ravens run defense has been completely transformed since then. The browns arent going to score a lot, I dont think the ravens score 35+ but I dont think they will need to in order to cover. Its a play that the public will be all over, which is why I am worried about it lol I also like the Bills +7. Neither team can score that much and the bills have played NE tough for a few years now. They are very familiar with what NE likes to do on offense. The pats offense is not the same without gronk. No one is saying it, but they didnt have a good offense when gronk has been out going back a few years. When he would miss a game, they would not score as much. Now that edleman is not himself and none of the other WRs seem to be able to get on the same page as brady, they have had issues. They struggle to run the ball too. Buffalo should be able to get into bradys face and play tight coverage on the outside. This line is off by 5 points imo. moneyline is somewhat in play for me too for a much smaller amount I like KC -6 too. The bears offense just isnt going to be able to keep up with KC. I like KCs defense more than most, I actually think their defense is super underrated right now. the bears arent going to be able to do much, especially considering andy is familiar with nagy. That goes both ways, but I think the downfield passing attack for KC cannot be stopped. You just cant cover as much ground as they force you to. Another play that the public will be all over, which does worry me 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Split the Sticks Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 Buffalo is getting 6.5 in New England today? taking those points. Buffy might win it outright so an odds bet might be in order, too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirill Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 19 minutes ago, Split the Sticks said: Buffalo is getting 6.5 in New England today? taking those points. Buffy might win it outright so an odds bet might be in order, too. Bills barely beat the Steelers with Hodges throwing 4 INT. Would love to see the Bills win this game, but don't see it happening at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 21, 2019 Share Posted December 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Kirill said: Bills barely beat the Steelers with Hodges throwing 4 INT. Would love to see the Bills win this game, but don't see it happening at all. True, but I will say this. Pats D is great, but unlike Pittsburgh’s D, they can be exposed on the ground. Which is exactly what the Buffalo offense is based on. I actually like how Buffalo’s D stacks up against the Pats O more than the other way around. Brady is going to be in for a world of hurt. Definitely take the points, in what’s projected as one of the lowest scoring games of the year, and sprinkle on the ML if you’re feeling it. I can definitely see Buffalo winning this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
animaltested Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 On 12/17/2019 at 10:16 AM, animaltested said: Something to consider this week Arizona at Seattle. Arizona has won in Seattle 4 times since 2013. Many of those games in December. Last year, Seattle needed a last second FG to win. Everyone should have heeded by advice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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