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Weekly Bets Thread

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4 hours ago, LeotheLion said:

I'm probably too conservative but I always buy a half point on TD favorites. Would hate to lose on a push. 

I bought the full point from -8 to -7 and a push is push and not a loss. 

A push on a 2 team parlay becomes a straight bet on the other game. If not, you place your wagers in the wrong place 

Funny story, my buddy wanted to buy Alabama in the championship game against Georgia from -3.5 to -2.5 for the reason you outlined (he'd rather win than push). Heavy juice to do so, like -168 or something like that. I convince him not to and to just buy the .5 to -3 and its a pretty hefty bet for both of us. Alabama is losing the whole game and looks dead in the water in the 2nd quarter with Jalen hurds. They then put in tua at half and force overtime in the last 30s of the 4th quarter. Georgia gets the ball first and kicks a FG in OT. We were hoping for double ot and wanted Alabama to score a TD in the second one ftw rather the first one for the push. Instead, tua took a sack and pushed them out of FG range. The next play throws a bomb to win the game by 3 and push. My friend was super pissed I talked him out of buying it to -2.5 lol the whole first half I was telling him he was so lucky that he didn't deploy additional money to cover the additional juice. 

28 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

i would do the opposite

This is the only thing that could have made me more confident in my bet 

I would say new Orleans is more likely to win by more than 7, than they are to win by less than 7 or to lose the game combined. I will admit there is a strong possibility NO is up 10 and the vikes backdoor the **** out of me. 

Part of this is because I feel as though a niners saints nfccg is an inevitability. I'm sure you disagree with that as well. 

NO has had the requisite heartbreak for a team that plays truly inspired. Part of said inspiration is derived from previous negative outcomes. They don't want to leave it to chance and will look to put a dagger right between the Vikings ribs and pile on the scores late in the game

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8 minutes ago, N4L said:

I bought the full point from -8 to -7 and a push is push and not a loss. 

A push on a 2 team parlay becomes a straight bet on the other game. If not, you place your wagers in the wrong place 

I was told differently but I'm sure you are right. Good to know. Always thought it made no sense to lose a parlay on 1 push. 

I've got Saints on a tease to 2. The backdoor loss is too much of a concern for me. 

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3 minutes ago, LeotheLion said:

I've got Saints on a tease to 2. The backdoor loss is too much of a concern for me. 

Yeah, the backdoor is certainly a concern but I think after the saints got backdoored HARD by this team two years ago, I think they slam the door closed first chance they get. Vikings haven't played well enough in the last month for me to think they would magically turn it on. Meanwhile, the saints are basically torn through everyone they played. So, I think it's going to get ugly 

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1 hour ago, Split the Sticks said:

I don't see any locks in this round. Best bet (IMO) - Seahawks.

No locks, but really good value on the Titans and Bills ML. Two very winnable games, IMO.

You want a lock? Look no further than LSU -5 vs. Clemson. 

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4 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

No locks, but really good value on the Titans and Bills ML. Two very winnable games, IMO.

You want a lock? Look no further than LSU -5 vs. Clemson. 

I'm leaning Clemson there. Dabo has voodoo magic.

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4 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

No locks, but really good value on the Titans and Bills ML. Two very winnable games, IMO.

You want a lock? Look no further than LSU -5 vs. Clemson. 

This is actually a no play for me. I could see Clemson winning and I could see LSU blowing them to pieces. Literally a very hard game to see what will unfold. Sometimes you just gotta do a "No Play". Not a smart investment. I will never bet to just bet.

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9 minutes ago, LeotheLion said:

I'm leaning Clemson there. Dabo has voodoo magic.

LSU as a whole is just too good. They score at will and their defense is great. You couldn't pay me to bet against Burrow/Brady at this point. And for as good as Lawrence is, I wasn't overly impressed with their offense last game. Clemson got outplayed for the majority of the game. I don't see them stopping LSU's offense and I don't see them being able to keep up.

It wouldn't surprise me if LSU wins comfortably.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

LSU as a whole is just too good. They score at will and their defense is great. You couldn't pay me to bet against Burrow/Brady at this point. And for as good as Lawrence is, I wasn't overly impressed with their offense last game. Clemson got outplayed for the majority of the game. I don't see them stopping LSU's offense and I don't see them being able to keep up.

It wouldn't surprise me if LSU wins comfortably.

It wouldn't shock me if LSU wins comfortably either. But it also wouldn't shock me if Clemson wins. I'm lean towards the points and experience. Clemsons O did concern me last game but LSU doesn't have as good of a defense and I think Clemson really missed Higgins. 

Edited by LeotheLion

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16 hours ago, N4L said:

Vikings haven't played well enough in the last month for me to think they would magically turn it on. Meanwhile, the saints are basically torn through everyone they played. So, I think it's going to get ugly 

This perfectly sums up what is most important heading into this weekend. Too often we overthink match ups. At the end of the day, who has looked the better side?

Same goes for Titans @ Patriots. New England has downright not looked good, and the Titans have been on the upswing for a awhile. I'm not going to bet on the Patriots just because "they're the Patriots", or because we hope Belichek figures it out over the course of a week. I'm trusting my eyes on this one and am taking the Titans. I haven't decided yet whether that will be the ML or the points, but I'm pretty confident in the Titans.

There's no shame in betting with that logic rather than overthinking things and beating yourself up for it later.

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5 minutes ago, LeotheLion said:

It wouldn't shock me if LSU wins comfortably either. But it also wouldn't shock me if Clemson wins. I'm lean towards the points and experience. Clemsons O did concern me last game but LSU doesn't have as good of a defense and I think Clemson really missed Higgins. 

What surprised me was how centered their offense was around Lawrence running the option. It really turned me off them.

Higgins is obviously key, and missing him in the first half didn't help things for Clemson. But even when he returned both Higgins and Justyn Ross were completely shut down by Jeff Okudah and company. I expect a similar outcome lining up on Kristian Fulton and arguably CFBs best cover man, Derek Stingley Jr.

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On 1/3/2020 at 1:10 AM, LeotheLion said:

I was told differently but I'm sure you are right. Good to know. Always thought it made no sense to lose a parlay on 1 push. 

I've got Saints on a tease to 2. The backdoor loss is too much of a concern for me. 

You’re right it makes no sense. Mathematically a parlay is identical to taking winnings from game one and betting that total on game two (so a win should quadruple your money less fee compounded). Only practical difference is you can bet games one and two simultaneously. 

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