SmittyBacall Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 27 minutes ago, LeotheLion said: The over is the right bet but with both defensive lines being really strong at rushing the passer I could see defenses getting off the field/forcing a FG attempt. That makes sense in theory, but I’m not sure how much it will effect the outcome. Both teams are top 5 in 3rd down conversion percentage on the year, and have good OLs to counter the rush. I don’t see KC slowing SF enough on the ground to the point where they wouldn’t be passing out of convertible third and short situations consistently. As for KC, they really don’t have to run at all. Andy Reid just throws in a run once in a while just so he can say he did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/21/2020 at 3:03 PM, Titans_Matt said: Going Tails and Under on the anthem this year. what makes you say this about the anthem? anything to actually back this up? Curious to hear what other prop bets people have success with. I just took Kendrick bourne to score the first TD of the game at +1800. Also took him to score first niners TD at +1100. He is someone garoppolo looks for in that part of the field. would be great if he scores first because I would win both lol I was looking for fred warner mvp but I dont see it offered at my book. was thinking of putting small amounts on a bunch of niners defenders because I feel like someone could get a late takeaway that decides the game. unfortunate that the only two guys I have available are sherman and bosa, which are good options that I bet on, but I was just hoping for some real long shot with a great payout for fun. deebo samuel is a guy I took as well. I didnt really want to put any WR, because its super rare for them to win, but we hand him the ball a lot and its possible he gets 5-6 carries and 3-4 catches where he does a lot once he has the ball. could score a TD multiple ways too, which helps a lot with these kinds of things. I already placed a large wager on the over 54. Thinking about doing two 25% bets on each teams total. KC team total is 26.5 and SF team total is 27.5. by splitting up the bet, I feel confident at least one will hit, with a strong chance both hit. Hard to see neither team reaching 28 points. Increase the payout when the game goes over, but not lose if only one team is scoring. I will say, the closer we get the less confident I am in the over. I took 54 basically immediately thinking the public would bet this number up a lot. The fact it hasnt moved that much despite most of the money coming in on the over means that vegas wants to encourage more betting, which is always a scary thought. I know they are fearful of sharps pounding the over if they move it too much, but at some point, you have to think the liability would be too large to risk not moving it up. I think this will be a game that goes way over or not over at all. I am thinking of doing an alternate line of the over 64.5 +270 along with the under 44.5 +270. not sure if that would make mathematical sense though 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 3 hours ago, N4L said: I was looking for fred warner mvp but I dont see it offered at my book. Warner coming in at +12500 (!) on Bet365. He was a guy I was looking to sprinkle on. Deebo coming in at +5000. 3 hours ago, N4L said: I already placed a large wager on the over 54. As have I. 3 hours ago, N4L said: Thinking about doing two 25% bets on each teams total. KC team total is 26.5 and SF team total is 27.5. by splitting up the bet, I feel confident at least one will hit, with a strong chance both hit. Hard to see neither team reaching 28 points. Increase the payout when the game goes over, but not lose if only one team is scoring. Smart. 3 hours ago, N4L said: I will say, the closer we get the less confident I am in the over. I took 54 basically immediately thinking the public would bet this number up a lot. The fact it hasnt moved that much despite most of the money coming in on the over means that vegas wants to encourage more betting, which is always a scary thought. Eh, I’m trying not to over think it. I expected the line to move as well, but it’s not the end of the world, and it’s still early. Based on what I’ve seen these last few weeks I don’t think either offense will have major issues moving the ball. The only thing that worries me is some unforeseen, non-personnel related issue like the offenses coming out flat for some reason (e.g. pressure of the moment). But even then each team are explosive enough to rip off consistent chunk plays and score from anywhere on the field at any moment. The field is filled with track players. Safe to say there’s a good chance it’ll be a track meet. 3 hours ago, N4L said: I think this will be a game that goes way over or not over at all. I am thinking of doing an alternate line of the over 64.5 +270 along with the under 44.5 +270. not sure if that would make mathematical sense though You know if you do this the game total will come out to 50, right? Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 dropped 100 bucks on the NFC just so i watch it this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DontTazeMeBro Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Dee Ford 80/1 and Fred Warner 150/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 "Will they mention that J.Garoppolo started w/Pats?" Yes -150 No +100 Thinking about slamming the yes on this. What are the odds they go an entire three hours without mentioning Jimmy was on the Patriots? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny/Patrick Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 28-3 lead blown is 10.000/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 10:37 AM, Malfatron said: dropped 100 bucks on the NFC just so i watch it this year well that was dumb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 9 hours ago, BayRaider said: "Will they mention that J.Garoppolo started w/Pats?" Yes -150 No +100 Thinking about slamming the yes on this. What are the odds they go an entire three hours without mentioning Jimmy was on the Patriots? They will, if for no other reason to make the comment that it'll be his third ring (first two obviously as a backup). They can't disclose that without mentioning he was on the pats. I feel like that's a lock 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 3:16 AM, N4L said: I already placed a large wager on the over 54. Yeah, I got it at 53.5. I feel like it is a lock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 I want to bet the over but there’s so much money and people on it, it’s insane and turning me off. 92%? I’m not a conspiracy theorist but you may see a ton of questionable flags in this game.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayRaider Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 My betting line up for February. Very tiny hedge on 49ers +6 1/2, hardly anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 One prop I made which I kind of regret was that the opening kickoff will be a touchback -150 The niners have had slight issues coving kicks down the stretch. I think our rookie punter/kickoff specialist will try and kick the ball out of the back of the endzone for this reason. Mitchwish hasn't really boomed the ball on kickoffs this year but he does have a huge leg.b I watched some kickoffs with hardman and I didn't like what I saw. He takes the ball out of the end zone a lot. Not great for this prop lol I am confident that butker will put the ball deep enough that the Richie James will take the touchback. I think the niners will be fine with taking the ball at the 25 initially. I hope the niners kick off so that we can get the ball in the second half (Superbowl win >>> money) but if KC kicks off, I feel like I'm gonna win this bet I also took Fred warner over 6.5 combined tackles + assists. Jimmie ward over 4 combined tackles + assists. I took Garoppolo to throw a TD in the first quarter +280. I think the niners are gonna come out throwing. Felt like good value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 8:04 AM, BayRaider said: "Will they mention that J.Garoppolo started w/Pats?" Yes -150 No +100 Thinking about slamming the yes on this. What are the odds they go an entire three hours without mentioning Jimmy was on the Patriots? Where is this? I want to HAMMER it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Titans_Matt Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 5:16 AM, N4L said: what makes you say this about the anthem? anything to actually back this up? Curious to hear what other prop bets people have success with. I just took Kendrick bourne to score the first TD of the game at +1800. Also took him to score first niners TD at +1100. He is someone garoppolo looks for in that part of the field. would be great if he scores first because I would win both lol I was looking for fred warner mvp but I dont see it offered at my book. was thinking of putting small amounts on a bunch of niners defenders because I feel like someone could get a late takeaway that decides the game. unfortunate that the only two guys I have available are sherman and bosa, which are good options that I bet on, but I was just hoping for some real long shot with a great payout for fun. deebo samuel is a guy I took as well. I didnt really want to put any WR, because its super rare for them to win, but we hand him the ball a lot and its possible he gets 5-6 carries and 3-4 catches where he does a lot once he has the ball. could score a TD multiple ways too, which helps a lot with these kinds of things. I already placed a large wager on the over 54. Thinking about doing two 25% bets on each teams total. KC team total is 26.5 and SF team total is 27.5. by splitting up the bet, I feel confident at least one will hit, with a strong chance both hit. Hard to see neither team reaching 28 points. Increase the payout when the game goes over, but not lose if only one team is scoring. I will say, the closer we get the less confident I am in the over. I took 54 basically immediately thinking the public would bet this number up a lot. The fact it hasnt moved that much despite most of the money coming in on the over means that vegas wants to encourage more betting, which is always a scary thought. I know they are fearful of sharps pounding the over if they move it too much, but at some point, you have to think the liability would be too large to risk not moving it up. I think this will be a game that goes way over or not over at all. I am thinking of doing an alternate line of the over 64.5 +270 along with the under 44.5 +270. not sure if that would make mathematical sense though Sorry haven't been on in a couple days to answer this. Anyways over on the anthem has been on a roll lately in Super Bowls, I have a feeling that it is time for an under. Also my book has her at 2:04 right now. She has sung the anthem at 5 major sporting events and has only broken that mark once, albeit the last time she sung it was the time she broke that mark. So 1-4 in breaking the mark and a feeling in me undies is the reasoning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.