BStanRamFan Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 Since 2016, Buffalo is has hit the under 73.9% of the time as a road underdog. Going Under 45.5 Since 2016, Atlanta is 1-2 as a home underdog. Going Saints -6.5 Since 2016, Chicago is 2-0 as an away favorite. Detroit is 1-3 as a home underdog. Going Chicago -3 That's my Thanksgiving picks with a little insight. 3-Team Parlay +550 6-point 3-team Tease +153 Bears +3 Saints -0.5 Dal/Buf Under 51.5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indifference Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 18 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said: Since 2016, Buffalo is has hit the under 73.9% of the time as a road underdog. Going Under 45.5 Since 2016, Atlanta is 1-2 as a home underdog. Going Saints -6.5 Since 2016, Chicago is 2-0 as an away favorite. Detroit is 1-3 as a home underdog. Going Chicago -3 That's my Thanksgiving picks with a little insight. 3-Team Parlay +550 6-point 3-team Tease +153 Bears +3 Saints -0.5 Dal/Buf Under 51.5 any sunday insight ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BStanRamFan Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 On 11/26/2019 at 3:29 PM, BStanRamFan said: Since 2016, Buffalo is has hit the under 73.9% of the time as a road underdog. Going Under 45.5 Since 2016, Atlanta is 1-2 as a home underdog. Going Saints -6.5 Since 2016, Chicago is 2-0 as an away favorite. Detroit is 1-3 as a home underdog. Going Chicago -3 That's my Thanksgiving picks with a little insight. 3-Team Parlay +550 6-point 3-team Tease +153 Bears +3 Saints -0.5 Dal/Buf Under 51.5 The 3 teamer I mentioned came in yesterday. Curious if anyone took the bet. The Chicago line jumped up to 5.5 on gameday so you would of had to lock in on earlier. Below are some picks I like on Sunday with more insight. Packers -6.5. Since 2013, Giants have covered the spread 40% of the time as a home underdog. Chargers -3. Since 2016, Chargers are 3-0 against the spread after a bye. Seattle -3. Since 2016, Vikings are 1-3 against the spread after a bye. Arizona +2.5 (buy the half point). Since 2016, Cardinals are 9-6-1 against the spread at home underdogs. Jets -3. Since 2016, Bengals are 3-7 ATS as home underdog. This scares me though as Dalton is playing for his career being injected back into the starting line up; hard to quantify that through data. 5 Team Parlay +2387 5 Team 6Pt Tease +400 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 11 hours ago, BStanRamFan said: Packers -6.5. Since 2013, Giants have covered the spread 40% of the time as a home underdog. I just don't understand how data from 2013-2017 is relevant when the roster and coaching staff is completely overturned. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BStanRamFan Posted December 2, 2019 Author Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 11/30/2019 at 7:08 AM, SmittyBacall said: I just don't understand how data from 2013-2017 is relevant when the roster and coaching staff is completely overturned. You need a wide range of data to spot trends. I agree that at face value it shouldn't mean much, but that's how alot of these sports books and sharps think. Obviously there is more that goes into it. Not to mention I had a $hit week (1-4) at the moment pending tonight's outcome. Chargers find new ways to lose games, the Jets game I admitted scared me, but i went forward with the data. And even the Rams fan didn't see that trouncing of Arizona coming lol Might as well throw darts at the wall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 I had a solid first four weeks Then I hit a rough patch with some bad luck and decided to just get back to watching games. I've also realized it's better to pick less games. I'm really just looking for 1 game, but 2 or 3 max if I like the smell Packers was that game last week. This week I love Tennessee -3 in Oakland. They are going to man handle Oakland imo. I think Derick Henry has a day. I also like their defense to slow down the raiders run game I also really like the fact I can get 3 points with Andy Reid and mahomes Plus I think the niners win outright but I will take the points there as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 3 hours ago, N4L said: This week I love Tennessee -3 in Oakland. They are going to man handle Oakland imo. I think Derick Henry has a day. I also like their defense to slow down the raiders run game The only thing that worries me here is the fact that it's on the west coast. 3 hours ago, N4L said: I also really like the fact I can get 3 points with Andy Reid and mahomes One of my betting commandments is not to bet against the Patriots at home. 3 hours ago, N4L said: Plus I think the niners win outright but I will take the points there as well I like the Niners as well here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 6 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: 10 hours ago, N4L said: This week I love Tennessee -3 in Oakland. They are going to man handle Oakland imo. I think Derick Henry has a day. I also like their defense to slow down the raiders run game The only thing that worries me here is the fact that it's on the west coast. I actually don't mind it, it's the reason we are going to get them -3 instead of -8 or something like that I think. Flying west is waaaaay easier than flying east. I travel a lot and it's not comparable whatsoever. I think Tennessee is locked in right now and I think the raiders played above their pay grade earlier in the year but are coming back to earth 6 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: One of my betting commandments is not to bet against the Patriots at home I have been burned on that one as well, and I completely get that, but I think Houston put the gameplan out there to beat NE right now and Andy is a better coach than Bob and KC is more talented than Houston imo Chris Jones up the middle is going to be a big factor in that game. I think Andy Reid always has this game circled on his calendar after the pats beat him in the Superbowl and the fact kc should have beaten NE in the playoffs last year Bottom line to me is that I trust KCs offense against the pats defense more than I trust the pats offense against the KC defense. It's my least favorite of the three games I put, but I still like them in this spot. I think NE is vulnerable because their offense has struggled so much and mahomes is always a big play waiting to happen 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 19 minutes ago, N4L said: I actually don't mind it, it's the reason we are going to get them -3 instead of -8 or something like that I think. Flying west is waaaaay easier than flying east. I travel a lot and it's not comparable whatsoever. I think Tennessee is locked in right now and I think the raiders played above their pay grade earlier in the year but are coming back to earth I have been burned on that one as well, and I completely get that, but I think Houston put the gameplan out there to beat NE right now and Andy is a better coach than Bob and KC is more talented than Houston imo Chris Jones up the middle is going to be a big factor in that game. I think Andy Reid always has this game circled on his calendar after the pats beat him in the Superbowl and the fact kc should have beaten NE in the playoffs last year Bottom line to me is that I trust KCs offense against the pats defense more than I trust the pats offense against the KC defense. It's my least favorite of the three games I put, but I still like them in this spot. I think NE is vulnerable because their offense has struggled so much and mahomes is always a big play waiting to happen How do you feel about taking the Bucs -3 at home vs the Colts. I think they match up really well. Bucs are top 3 at stopping the run and that's what Indy needs to establish to win. I think, barring a Winston turnover spree, the Bucs have a good chance of covering once again. They're not as bad as people think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: How do you feel about taking the Bucs -3 at home vs the Colts. I think they match up really well. Bucs are top 3 at stopping the run and that's what Indy needs to establish to win. I think, barring a Winston turnover spree, the Bucs have a good chance of covering once again. They're not as bad as people think. that was in my 'like them but not enough to wager on them' tier. I think its a solid bet but as I said in my first post, I am trying to only pick 1-2 games per week rather than go for volume. That was the 4th game I was looking at tbh I like the bucs defense more than most, especially now with Devin White in the lineup. I bet on him and bosa to win DROY (bet a significant more on bosa and put enough to cover my bet with white because LB is a relatively easy transition). Their pass D is underrated at this point imo and the run D is certainly legit. I like bowles as well and think he is a really good DC, so I expect them to be ready. Colts are one of those teams that are hard to read. Some weeks they look really well put together and other weeks the wheels fall off in the second half. They feel like a limited team right now on offense and I do think the bucs firepower on offense will overwhelm them at some point. The Winston turnover spree is certainly a concern but he is a better QB than Jacoby rn Its a good bet imo, pull the trigger 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Split the Sticks Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 @BStanRamFan, you put a lot of trust in the bears, man. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Ramster Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Split the Sticks said: @BStanRamFan, you put a lot of trust in the bears, man. I love you babe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 The Jags are in horrible shape. I'm tempted to take the Chargers -3. But like @N4L and I mentioned earlier, flying from LA to JAX worries me. Installing Minshew back into the lineup throws in another wrench of uncertainty. He's looked better than Foles this season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BStanRamFan Posted December 4, 2019 Author Share Posted December 4, 2019 16 hours ago, Split the Sticks said: @BStanRamFan, you put a lot of trust in the bears, man. I just trust data lol don't matter who the team is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 7 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: The Jags are in horrible shape. I'm tempted to take the Chargers -3. But like @N4L and I mentioned earlier, flying from LA to JAX worries me. Installing Minshew back into the lineup throws in another wrench of uncertainty. He's looked better than Foles this season. hard pass on that from me. two teams that are very unreliable to say the least in a game with no playoff implications. no thanks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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