VigilantZombie Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 Just now, Nozizaki said: Also revenge. KC definitely feels like they were the better team last year in the AFCCG and got robbed. They'll probably play their butts off, plus they're healthy. Furthermore if we're being completely honest the chargers do not have a good offense. Melvin Gordon is not the same Running back he was before he decided to hold out half the season.. They have a couple of good wide receivers obviously, But they also have one of the worst off ends of lines in the league.Frankly their best wide receiver is there tight end hunter Henry and they are led by a quarterback whose prime was a couple seasons ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: Want to convince me on taking the Niners ML? Just take the +3 if you can get it. I do believe they win outright but it's always good to have a +3 in the pocket Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, N4L said: Just take the +3 if you can get it. I do believe they win outright but it's always good to have a +3 in the pocket I think the ml is like +125 or something so it doesn't seem worth it to me for the added risk. The niners match up extremely well with the saints. Our DL should feast with Dee Ford back. We have height/size up front to clog passing lanes and tip passes. Our corners are long and quick. I feel good about the way they matchup with Michael Thomas. Their redzone offense has struggled a lot and so I feel good about forcing them to kick fgs I trust Garoppolo more than most and I think with the weapons we have (kittle Sanders Samuel) plus getting breida back this week, we should be able to score touchdowns I'm worried about the saints doing trick plays. Feels like they are going to pull out all of the stops and be aggressive on 4th down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, N4L said: I think the ml is like +125 or something so it doesn't seem worth it to me for the added risk. The niners match up extremely well with the saints. Our DL should feast with Dee Ford back. We have height/size up front to clog passing lanes and tip passes. Our corners are long and quick. I feel good about the way they matchup with Michael Thomas. Their redzone offense has struggled a lot and so I feel good about forcing them to kick fgs I trust Garoppolo more than most and I think with the weapons we have (kittle Sanders Samuel) plus getting breida back this week, we should be able to score touchdowns I'm worried about the saints doing trick plays. Feels like they are going to pull out all of the stops and be aggressive on 4th down Do you see this game going over 44.5? I feel like the offenses will prevail. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 6, 2019 Share Posted December 6, 2019 (edited) 36 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: Do you see this game going over 44.5? I feel like the offenses will prevail. If anything I would bet the under considering how confident I am with the niners defense and how they match up this weekend. I think the saints will have to settle for fgs more often than not. The saints will probably try and get the ball out of Brees hands and run the ball which will keep the clock moving. Niners like to have 1-2 drives a game where they keep the ball for 6-7 minutes. That will shorten the game. I feel very strongly about niners +3 and don't want to muddy the waters which is why I am staying away from the total. Again, for me it's quality over quantity. I don't feel as though there is a strong enough edge with the under to justify using a percentage of the bankroll on something other than niners, Titans, cheifs I would imagine the final score is gonna be 24-16 niners. Edited December 6, 2019 by N4L 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 On 12/3/2019 at 12:53 AM, N4L said: I had a solid first four weeks Then I hit a rough patch with some bad luck and decided to just get back to watching games. I've also realized it's better to pick less games. I'm really just looking for 1 game, but 2 or 3 max if I like the smell Packers was that game last week. This week I love Tennessee -3 in Oakland. They are going to man handle Oakland imo. I think Derick Henry has a day. I also like their defense to slow down the raiders run game I also really like the fact I can get 3 points with Andy Reid and mahomes Plus I think the niners win outright but I will take the points there as well BANG BANG BANG 3-0!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 On 12/6/2019 at 1:26 PM, N4L said: If anything I would bet the under I trusted you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, N4L said: BANG BANG BANG 3-0!!! My parlay (alternate spreads via Bet365): KC -2.5, BAL -6, SF -2.5, SEA -1. Shoot me. Edited December 9, 2019 by SmittyBacall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, N4L said: BANG BANG BANG 3-0!!! I took the 49ers ML. Anytime the spread is small and I think there's a really good chance the dog wins outright, I just roll with it. Nominal difference, but made a little extra from that today 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, SmittyBacall said: I trusted you! You must have missed the part where I said not to take the total! If you had the niners plus the points you were feeling better than Erin Andrews on Halloween 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, N4L said: You must have missed the part where I said not to take the total! If you had the niners plus the points you were feeling better than Erin Andrews on Halloween There's always next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, Forge said: I took the 49ers ML. Anytime the spread is small and I think there's a really good chance the dog wins outright, I just roll with it. Nominal difference, but made a little extra from that today Smitty asked me if he should take the ML but I said for +120 it was better to have the points. The added risk didn't seem worth it for that small difference in payout Glad it worked out for you!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, N4L said: Smitty asked me if he should take the ML but I said for +120 it was better to have the points. The added risk didn't seem worth it for that small difference in payout Glad it worked out for you!! Yeah, it's just a habit for me in games that I feel are legitimate toss ups. Obviously didn't have a ton riding in such a questionable game, but it's a nice bonus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 22 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: My parlay (alternate spreads via Bet365): KC -2.5, BAL -6, SF -2.5, SEA -1. Shoot me. Well at least Seattle lost? I get the idea of swinging for the fences, but my advice is to not do so many parlays lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Not feeling nearly as good about this weeks slate of games as I did last week but here are a few I like: Rams -1 at cowboys. Cowboys have extra time and are at home, usually that is a good thing, but I don't trust this coaching staff, so I think that negates this advantage. I also think the cowboys have forgotten how to tackle on defense. Their secondary and linebackers are simply not bringing guys to the ground. Rams offense is good at getting the ball to guys in space and I think there are going to be some huge plays where one guy misses a tackle then its off to the races. Rams defense matches up really well with the cowboys and I don't think that dallas will have much success through the air. Dallas has quit on their coach imo I heard @ET80 say he is fearful of the way Tennessee matches up with Houston. can you post that again? I do love the way Tennessee is playing right now. very complete team who is extremely confident. Henry in the second half is an unstoppable force. I wish the line was -2 rather than -3 because someone is going to go for two at some point in this game. I like the over 47 in the niners game. There shouldn't be any rain on Sunday here so that helps the over. If the rain comes, I wouldn't bet this, but if there is no rain I think the niners will put up 30+ on this team. Trufant is out and they have two super young corners that are going to play. Sanders and Samuel should feast. Niners run game should dominate as well. Niners defense is limping right now. We have two good outside corners and a good FS, but our SS is out and his replacement (marcel harris) shouldn't even be in the league from what we have seen from him this year. Our young LB corps have been bad the last two weeks and no one seems to be able to tackle on the back end of our defense. Our DL is a little beat up right now too. Falcons could easily score 20ish points (honestly they are a very live dog too) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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