Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

14 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Probably going to place a parlay this weekend:

Bears (ML) at Raiders

Bills (ML) at Chiefs

Steelers (ML) vs Broncos

Jets (ML) vs Falcons

Browns (ML) at Chargers

My advice - take the Browns/Chargers out.   Or at least play a round robin with the same money, and split it up 5x with 5 4-way parleys.   And of course, take single bets.

With Baker's struggles, I don't think I'd touch CLE at all.   I think there's value in the other bets for sure, but you need all of them to hit - why I'd say make sure to single bet if you can.  As I mentioned in the Baker injury thread in News forum, CLE has a binary outcome - ahead 10+ pts, you're not coming back against them unless you have an elite QB.    But if CLE gets down 10+ pts, they're not coming back with present form Baker.  Facing the Chargers D & Herbert's ability to exploit pass D's, definitely a winnable game for CLE, but it's one I don't have a great lean on - and I'd hate to lose the dog parley with them.

I'm definitely on the Steelers & Jets, the value's too good IMO.   Also, if the Broncos win, I'm not so upset lol.

My early leans on ATS/ML/Races for Week 5 post-TNF:

NYJ +130 ML, race to 20/25/30 +160 / +250 / +400 - just so much value, neutral venue game, and ATL missing their WR's now, and a bad D that faces the Jets who get Crowder & Davis together.   I see a 30-20 type W for NYJ.

PIT +110 ML vs. DEN - this is about DEN travelling east, and man, if Lock is the QB, I'm all over PIT.   Teddy B plays, then it's a toss up, but I'll take the +money play now.  It's going to be likely a low scoring affair, so can't take the races. 

JAX +4.5 vs. TEN - home dog, TEN as road favorites.  My rule of thumb with TEN - as dogs, they are awesome.  But as favorites, avoid or fade.   I'm not calling a JAX win, but a 3-pt loss seems like the play, and the Titans find a way to not cover so many times.

GB @ CIN U51.0 - both CIN & GB play with a slow pace.   TO's and short fields could kill this, but I also like CIN's pass D.  Honestly, I'm so tempted to take CIN +3.0, but without Mixon, that's a tougher call.   If Mixon gets a full practice in, I might go there, and I may buy the extra point for -130 type deal too.

Edited October 8, 2021 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

42 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

My advice - take the Browns/Chargers out.   Or at least play a round robin with the same money, and split it up 5x with 5 4-way parleys.   And of course, take single bets.

Thanks for the advice, that's one I keep going back and forth on. I really like the Bears ML (+200) against the Raiders. The Raiders are having a ton of issues on the offensive line and I don't think Jacobs plays. Not a great situation to be in with Mack, Quinn, and Hicks coming to town.

[Broncofan]

On 10/5/2021 at 9:21 AM, Broncofan said:

The props aren't out yet, but guys I'm going to really look to get on early for, with 1 exception for props and 1 for TD's:

Lawrence, Shenault & Dan Arnold vs TEN - should ALL be suppressed totals from their week 1-4 totals, but that TEN pass D is so vulnerable.    And TEN's low yardage / catches given up to TE is misleading, because ARI/NYJ/CAR don't feature the TE as much as Urban Meyer's O does.    As for Shenault, he's been miscast in the short-yardage / gimmick role - with Chark out, we saw what Shenault could do in a full route tree.

Antonio Brown vs. MIA, Mike Gesicki vs. TAM - Not just going back to the well from last week, this is a reflection of 3 observations - first, Howard is almost certainly going to shadow Evans.  Second, with Gronk out, TB12 is clearly targeting AB as his security blanket (and AB lost a TD in the lights/rain then dropped one on the last drive).   His slot / 2nd outside CB matchup is a really good one.  On the flip side, so long as the MIA play calling recognizes they need to pass a ton, Gesicki will see a huge share with Brissett as QB.  In fantasy, I would sell high on Gesicki after this game or next, because he doesn't get used at all when Tua is in there.   But I want in on this week's props again.

Diontae Johnson vs. DEN (WAIT on Claypool injury report) - DEN's pass D is going to have shiny stats from their first 3 games, but we saw what a good pass game does against them.   Now, to be clear, Big Ben is NOT good anymore - so I can't really extrapolate to anyone but Johnson.  The one reason I'll likely wait is to see if Claypool is playing.   Having him play with Juju will open enough space for Diontae to hit his catch totals (which I'm sure will be O5.5 or O6.5 at + money).

Swift catch totals vs. MIN, Jefferson yard totals vs. DET - I expect MIN to get ahead, and Jefferson to be a big part of that much like Mooney was last week.   I then expect Swift to be used a lot more in catchup.   Since Swift went under at 4 catches last week, I'm expecting plus money at O4.5, and I'll hammer that.  

Robinson & Mooney yardage totals vs. LV - both LV CB's left the game, I expect they'll be out or hurting vs. CHI.  LV's pass rush will be a problem for Fields, so I prefer the yardage props so 1 chunk play can get the over for both guys.  I think ARob will get squeaky wheel treatment, and his low numbers should give him an insanely low # to use.    With no Monty, I think both are in play.

 

TD props - unless it's less than +250, I'm going in on Dan Arnold, same reasons as Parham.   Arnold's catch totals / usage will hopefully have this at +350/+5000.    If Damien Williams is the starter, I'll take a stab on a Khalil Herbert TD if he's +400 or +500 - because I saw Williams got hurt, and I think Herbert could see a massive spike in PT.    I will almost certainly take a shot on Fields rushing / receiving TD at +250 or better, if Monty is out (kind of like how Darnold is running for TD's with McCaffrey out).  I'll have to wait on the Bears RB injury report though there.

Things to look for, let's see how the totals shake out.

 

 

OK so yardage & reception props are out, so let's go:

ATS / ML / RACE Props (mentioned above for full writeup)

NYJ ML +130, RACE to 20/25/30 0.6U each (2.8U)

PIT ML +110

JAX +4.5 -105

CIN/GB U51 -105

Stake - 5.8U

 

EARLY UK game

Corey Davis O4.5 catches +125, O58.5 yards -110 - same principle as last week.   With ATL's D, even more likely to get 8-10 targets, and 6-7 catches, 80-100 yards, and a TD.   Sign me up

Jamison Crowder O52.5 yards - his O4.5 catch prop is -160, so will just take the yards.   ATL's pass D is horrible, Zach Wilson will attack the ATL D with these 2 guys.

Zach Wilson O1.5 TD's +115 - can't believe I get to run back this prop at +money again.  It's not +165 like last week, but the same principle applies.  Sign.  Me.  Up.

Stake - 4U

SUN REG Games

Trevor Lawrence O1.5 TD +100 - 2U play - it's the TEN D.   This is ridiculously good.    Lawrence has good chemistry with Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, and he'll have Dan Arnold ready to play a full set of plays.   I'm tempted to go 4U (my max), TBH.   Only way this fails is if Trevor gets hurt, or there's insanely bad luck (DPI at end zone, tackled at 1 etc.).  I think JAX scores at least 3 TD's here, and could be 4 TBH.   I see 2 by air as a 65-70 percent probability, even money is a massive gift.

Laviska Shenault O57.5 receiving -110, ?O5.5 catches (not yet out, O4.5 -160) - 2U play for each  (EDIT:  O5.5 never came out, lucky for me)- there is no way he should be this low.    He's likely going to be their #1 WR with a full route tree vs. TEN.  Think Crowder NYJ volume vs. them, but with Corey Davis chunk play potential.    This is an easy 2U play.  The O4.5 catch prop is -160, so I'm waiting to get +money on O5.5 catches.  Only way this goes south is injury IMO.

Dan Arnold O2.5 catches +150, 022.5 -110 - wow.   No TD props are out but I’ll take at +300 or better.  He's a RZ target for sure, and Urban Meyer loves to pepper the TE.   All over this with 10 more days after getting 40 percent snap count with 3 days on team and no live practice time.   Huge value play.  

Antonio Brown O58.5 yards -110 - the catch prop is -4.5 -160, so I'll likely take a dive on plus money on 5.5 catches too.  AB is the preferred security blanket until Gronk is back, and he would have had a massive day had he not lost ball in lights and then dropped a 40 yard TD on consecutive plays.   Want the plus money, so I'll take the yards and double up with +money on catches.

Mike Gesicki O40.5 yards -110 - same deal as last week, and the game script will be even more pass heavy.   O3.5 catches is -150 right now, will be tempted to go +money with O4.5 and double up just like AB.  

Jaylen Waddle O56.5 yards - Tampa can be beat with chunk plays - and I think most of their attention will be on Devante Parker.  Waddle's game changing speed and YAC ability are huge problems for TAM's injured secondary.   Don't get me wrong - I think Tampa wins going away - but garbage time applies here.

Ja'Marr Chase O64.5 yards - This number is suppressed because of GB's pass D numbers - but with their top CB Jaire Alexander out (or very hurting), this is an easy call to hit Chase's yardage total.   If Tee Higgins is out, I'll also want Tyler Boyd's O54.5, but I can wait on him until we know if Higgins is playing or not.

De’Andre Swift O4.5 catches +115 - gamescript and matchup flows to Swift.    Plus money I’m back in again.   

Justin Jefferson O6.5 catches +120 - with a hurting Cook this again is 60+% prob so sign me up at plus money. 

Darnell Mooney O4.5 catches +120 - again about the problem LV's D has with pass coverage.   Plus money makes this so tasty.

TD props - Dan Arnold at 0.8U / 0.4 2+ if it's +350 or better (not yet out), Justin Fields same stake if it's +250/+2500 or better.

Stake (assuming Arnold & Antonio Brown & Gesicki catch props come out and I take them) - 14u for props, and 2.4U for the 2 TD props (Arnold/Fields)

Total Sunday Stake - 27.2U

 

No yardage/catch props on Diontae Johnson but I'm very interested here (EDIT:  My UK losses meant I couldn't increase my stake, so no bet - too bad, would have won).  I may have to reduce my Shenault catch/yardage stake to 1U each because I'm already at just over 25U with the above plays and haven't counted Swift/Jefferson in there, I like to stick to a 20U max, I may go 25, but that's the max - so Shenault likely becomes a 1U play x2, which fits in Diontae Johnson (and I'm already counting Arnold)

 

 

 

Edited October 10, 2021 by Broncofan

[indifference]

placed 10 team 6 pt teaser parlay last week to win $650 and of course the Jets screw me

its fine though ill be able to hit cash out when i place my wager on FD this wknd

going to tease TB , MIN , CAR , and BUF this weekend. 

straight i dont like any of these lines. just too high

i want ne on a teaser but i can see a close ugly game

[SaveOurSonics]

12 hours ago, indifference said:

i want ne on a teaser but i can see a close ugly game

Teasing the under in that game is one of my favorite plays of the week. Pats OL beat up so I imagine they’ll look to keep it on the ground and utilize the short passing game. We all know the rookie QBs vs BB narrative, and I don’t see Mills changing that. 

[11sanchez11]

My favorite bet this week is prob Saints -2.5

[SaveOurSonics]

On 10/7/2021 at 9:51 PM, Broncofan said:

Zach Wilson O1.5 TD's +115

 

On 10/7/2021 at 9:51 PM, Broncofan said:

Trevor Lawrence O1.5 TD +100

 

On 10/7/2021 at 9:51 PM, Broncofan said:

Dan Arnold O2.5 catches +150

 

On 10/7/2021 at 9:51 PM, Broncofan said:

Antonio Brown O58.5 yards

 

Really like all 4 of these. Here's a few obscure ones I'm eyeing. Curious to get your feedback. 

Mike Davis u45.5 rushing yards -115 - Davis saw his lowest rush share last week (52%) and posted 1.1 YPC against a defense that otherwise ceded over 5 YPC to both Patterson & Gallman combined. I think Davis is loosing grip on this job and we'll continue to see Gallman's usage scale up. Take out games against CMC & Henry, and the Jets surrendered sub 4 YPC to both the Broncos and Patriots RBs. 

Mike Davis u13.5 carries -111 - Same reasons as above. He hit the under last week in a game with positive game script and I expect the Jets to keep pace here. 

Mac Jones u253.5 pass yards -114 - Jones has hit the over in 3 of 4 games this year, so why the under? It's fair to expect the Texans offense to struggle (lowest O/U of the week, Mills O/U 187 pass yards) which means this game should most closely resemble the Patriots game at the Jets a few weeks back. It's the only game all season Jones hasn't exceeded 30 attempts and/or 200 pass yards. Considering the state of the OLine, I'd also expect most of those attempts to be quick attempts served as an extension of the run game. Jones' O/U completions is 23.5 and he hasn't hit the over on this number with fewer than 29 completions this season. 

DeVante Parker u4.5 completions +105 - Really like this at + odds. Parker has hit the over in 1 of 4 games this year, with that 1 being a massive blow out to the Bills (hit 5 receptions). He's now nursing nagging shoulder and hamstring injuries and should be much less than 100% if he plays. The counter argument is that the Bucs are somewhat of a pass funnel defense with how elite the run d is, but I don't know if that automatically leads to higher volume for Parker in particular. He's also a solid deep threat, so I wouldn't angle for the yardage prop here. And hey, an in-game hamstring aggravation is a win for the under bettors. 

Mike Gesicki O45.5 rec. yards -115 - If Parker sees less work, it's natural to assume Jacoby Brissett's #1 target will see more volume. He's easily hit the over in both Brissett starts and I'd expect them to be throwing a lot. 

Zach Ertz O27.5 rec. yards -114 - This feels insanely low for a guy who's posted 10 catches for over 100 yards the last 2 weeks. Even with CMC out, the Panthers offense is going to make Philly throw and Hurts has been loving his TEs recently. 

James Robinson O61.5 rush yards -120 - How is this so low? JRob has ran for over 150 yards the last 2 weeks and has only seen his rush share grow each week. Against a Titans defense that will struggle to get off the field and a Titans offense that might again struggle to sustain drives, this feels like a layup. 

Damien Williams O22.5 rec. yards -114 - Fun fact; in Williams' last 10 games where he's seen at least 10 carries (including playoffs), he has gone over 22.5 receiving yards in 9 of them. Think he'll get 10+ carries this weekend? Than there's a great chance he also sees the receiving work. Against a Raiders offense that has been playing well for most of the early season, the Bears shouldn't be able to sit on sub 20 attempts for a second week in a row. 

Darnell Mooney O49.5 rec. yards -114 - This line assumes two things. 1) Mooney isn't Fields favorite target and 2) the Bears won't be forced to throw the ball more than 20 times in this game. I'll take my odds on at least one of those being false. Mooney is a deep threat specialist with a QB using him as the focal point with a prop he could theoretically hit with 1 catch (his long catch last week was 64 yards). I also love his o4.5 catches at +114. 

Kadarius Toney O50.5 rec. yards -114 - Crazy to me that this line is higher than Mooney's, but that's besides the point. With Shepard and Slayton ruled out, Toney should once again play the role that saw him net 9 targets for 78 yards last week. This week, he gets an even worse Dallas defense that will likely deploy shutdown corner Diggs on Golladay. Even with a poor aDOT, I'd expect a volume game of 7 catches for 60 yards here. 

Cole Beasley O52.5 rec. yards -114 - Another one I love. His O/U catches is juiced at -160 for O4.5. Get this; in the two games where the Bills defense has given up at least 1 point, Beasley has hit 13 targets in each. It's a hyperbolic stat that's simply meant to showcase that Beasley gets serious work in games that the Bills keep competitive. I fully expect the Chiefs to keep this game competitive, which means Cole should get his. 

 

I'm planning on locking in 1U on the Mac Jones, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Zach Ertz, James Robinson, and Kadarius Toney plays. 

Still considering the Mike Davis, Damien Williams, and Cole Beasley plays. Might go 0.5U on each of those. 

 

Edited October 9, 2021 by SaveOurSonics

[DreamKid]

38 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I'm planning on locking in 1U on the Mac Jones, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Zach Ertz, James Robinson, and Kadarius Toney plays.

Like both of these plays, but I'm most confident in Toney. Can see them force feeding him again to see what they have. Cowboys should score a decent amount too. So DJ will be throwing.

[SaveOurSonics]

For anyone who cares, here is the teaser I locked in for this week @ +320 (5-leg 6.5-points)

 

Texans/Patriots u46 
Bucs/Dolphins u55
Browns/Chargers u54
Saints/WFT u50
Cowboys -0.5
 

Pats OL banged up + Mills vs BB should mean low scoring affair. I don't expect Brissett to keep pace here and with Gronk out, the Tampa offense has looked less than efficient in the RZ. With Baker's injury and the way the Cleveland defense has been playing, I like that under. Saints offense 32nd in pass attempts and Heinecke doing battle against a tough defense make that a comfortable under. And Cowboys over Giants at home feels like the safest spread play for me this week. 

I also sprinkled a little on a 4-way ML parlay of Rams, Patriots, Vikings, Ravens. 

[Broncofan]

10 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

 

 

 

 

Really like all 4 of these. Here's a few obscure ones I'm eyeing. Curious to get your feedback. 

Mike Davis u45.5 rushing yards -115 - Davis saw his lowest rush share last week (52%) and posted 1.1 YPC against a defense that otherwise ceded over 5 YPC to both Patterson & Gallman combined. I think Davis is loosing grip on this job and we'll continue to see Gallman's usage scale up. Take out games against CMC & Henry, and the Jets surrendered sub 4 YPC to both the Broncos and Patriots RBs. 

Mike Davis u13.5 carries -111 - Same reasons as above. He hit the under last week in a game with positive game script and I expect the Jets to keep pace here. 

Mac Jones u253.5 pass yards -114 - Jones has hit the over in 3 of 4 games this year, so why the under? It's fair to expect the Texans offense to struggle (lowest O/U of the week, Mills O/U 187 pass yards) which means this game should most closely resemble the Patriots game at the Jets a few weeks back. It's the only game all season Jones hasn't exceeded 30 attempts and/or 200 pass yards. Considering the state of the OLine, I'd also expect most of those attempts to be quick attempts served as an extension of the run game. Jones' O/U completions is 23.5 and he hasn't hit the over on this number with fewer than 29 completions this season. 

DeVante Parker u4.5 completions +105 - Really like this at + odds. Parker has hit the over in 1 of 4 games this year, with that 1 being a massive blow out to the Bills (hit 5 receptions). He's now nursing nagging shoulder and hamstring injuries and should be much less than 100% if he plays. The counter argument is that the Bucs are somewhat of a pass funnel defense with how elite the run d is, but I don't know if that automatically leads to higher volume for Parker in particular. He's also a solid deep threat, so I wouldn't angle for the yardage prop here. And hey, an in-game hamstring aggravation is a win for the under bettors. 

Mike Gesicki O45.5 rec. yards -115 - If Parker sees less work, it's natural to assume Jacoby Brissett's #1 target will see more volume. He's easily hit the over in both Brissett starts and I'd expect them to be throwing a lot. 

Zach Ertz O27.5 rec. yards -114 - This feels insanely low for a guy who's posted 10 catches for over 100 yards the last 2 weeks. Even with CMC out, the Panthers offense is going to make Philly throw and Hurts has been loving his TEs recently. 

James Robinson O61.5 rush yards -120 - How is this so low? JRob has ran for over 150 yards the last 2 weeks and has only seen his rush share grow each week. Against a Titans defense that will struggle to get off the field and a Titans offense that might again struggle to sustain drives, this feels like a layup. 

Damien Williams O22.5 rec. yards -114 - Fun fact; in Williams' last 10 games where he's seen at least 10 carries (including playoffs), he has gone over 22.5 receiving yards in 9 of them. Think he'll get 10+ carries this weekend? Than there's a great chance he also sees the receiving work. Against a Raiders offense that has been playing well for most of the early season, the Bears shouldn't be able to sit on sub 20 attempts for a second week in a row. 

Darnell Mooney O49.5 rec. yards -114 - This line assumes two things. 1) Mooney isn't Fields favorite target and 2) the Bears won't be forced to throw the ball more than 20 times in this game. I'll take my odds on at least one of those being false. Mooney is a deep threat specialist with a QB using him as the focal point with a prop he could theoretically hit with 1 catch (his long catch last week was 64 yards). I also love his o4.5 catches at +114. 

Kadarius Toney O50.5 rec. yards -114 - Crazy to me that this line is higher than Mooney's, but that's besides the point. With Shepard and Slayton ruled out, Toney should once again play the role that saw him net 9 targets for 78 yards last week. This week, he gets an even worse Dallas defense that will likely deploy shutdown corner Diggs on Golladay. Even with a poor aDOT, I'd expect a volume game of 7 catches for 60 yards here. 

Cole Beasley O52.5 rec. yards -114 - Another one I love. His O/U catches is juiced at -160 for O4.5. Get this; in the two games where the Bills defense has given up at least 1 point, Beasley has hit 13 targets in each. It's a hyperbolic stat that's simply meant to showcase that Beasley gets serious work in games that the Bills keep competitive. I fully expect the Chiefs to keep this game competitive, which means Cole should get his. 

 

I'm planning on locking in 1U on the Mac Jones, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Zach Ertz, James Robinson, and Kadarius Toney plays. 

Still considering the Mike Davis, Damien Williams, and Cole Beasley plays. Might go 0.5U on each of those. 

 

Really like the U on Mac Jones.  
 

As a rule I avoid unders on rushing & receiving yardage props for 2 reasons - first, one broken play and it can lose.   On the flip side you have to sweat it out for the entire game; where under score totals aren’t always vulnerable once you hit a certain point in the game.   I’m here to make $ but the side angle with the over is that I’m never out of an over yardage prop unless the guy is hurt.   Helps the enjoyment factor and profitability.    Vegas knows this and why the unders win out more than overs - which is why we need to pick spots 
 

Parker is in a prime spot with Tampa’s CB’s out/hurting.   Plus the opponents go heavy pass script wise vs  that pass funnel D.  I’d avoid in a big way. 
 

I like Gesicki & Mooney a lot - but I can get O4.5 reception props at plus money.  It’s why I’m going there.  Yardage safer but I love the value since I think both smash this weekend.   Where the props are juiced badly I go yardage. 

Agree with JRob rush & Beasley rec yards.   Nice finds. 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 9, 2021 by Broncofan

[indifference]

CAR should cover -3 pretty easily but with no CMC i dont trust their offense to flow. If he’s playing im taking it straight

[DontTazeMeBro]

Andrews is going to be only starter on OL for Patriots. So on the road with Herron, Durant and two guys who couldn’t even beat them out. Houston 3/1 feels like a gimme

[SaveOurSonics]

12 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Vegas knows this and why the unders win out more than overs

Which is exactly why I try to poach unders when I can. You’re right about sweating it out until the end of the game, but in my experience that patience can be profitable.  

[NYRaider]

19 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Kadarius Toney O50.5 rec. yards -114 - Crazy to me that this line is higher than Mooney's, but that's besides the point. With Shepard and Slayton ruled out, Toney should once again play the role that saw him net 9 targets for 78 yards last week. This week, he gets an even worse Dallas defense that will likely deploy shutdown corner Diggs on Golladay. Even with a poor aDOT, I'd expect a volume game of 7 catches for 60 yards here. 

Dallas defense has given up a ton of receiving yards to WR this season, particularly guys lining up in the slot. Dan Quinn uses the same cover 3 defense the Raiders use which is susceptible to the short passing game. I'm assuming that Diggs will be on Golladay and the emergence of John Ross will keep the safeties honest which should open up a lot of opportunities for Toney underneath. 

19 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Damien Williams O22.5 rec. yards -114 - Fun fact; in Williams' last 10 games where he's seen at least 10 carries (including playoffs), he has gone over 22.5 receiving yards in 9 of them. Think he'll get 10+ carries this weekend? Than there's a great chance he also sees the receiving work. Against a Raiders offense that has been playing well for most of the early season, the Bears shouldn't be able to sit on sub 20 attempts for a second week in a row. 

Najee Harris, Ty'Son Williams, and Austin Ekeler all eclipsed 25+ receiving yards against us. Our defense is extremely banged up coming into the game this week and we've allowed QB's to extend plays a lot this year, think Williams will get a ton of touches as a security blanket for Fields. 

[NYRaider]

Daniel Jones O 28.5 rushing yards (-114) and 1 TD (+250) is one that I'm considering playing. Jones has had 27 rushing yards in every game this season and has 2 rushing TD plus 1 that was called back against Washington. The Giants have incorporated a ton of RPO stuff into their offense this season and DQ's scheme can get beat by the QB looking to run. Sam Darnold had 35 rushing yards/2 TD against them last week and Jalen Hurts had 38 rushing yards against them the week prior.